This article analyzes the current fluctuations in unemployment. This past week, 346,000 people filed initial claims for unemployment benefits. However, this is down from the 388,000 people filing initial claims the week before. The data is adjusted to account for seasonal trends, but numbers are often choppy in March and April because of the Easter holiday and spring breaks. When the data is smoothed out, numbers show that new claims have averaged around 358,000 over the past four weeks. This level is consistent with weekly claims in late 2007 and early 2008 before the worst of the recession. The article also states that layoffs are back to pre-recession levels. Although this may seem like good news, it may not be enough to bring the unemployment rate down from its current level of 7.6%.
While the unemployment rate may not have come down, I still think that this is a huge positive sign. The unemployment rate before the recession hovered around 5% and this seems to be the goal for most. However I think that this is an unrealistic goal. In my opinion the housing bubble helped lead to such a high confidence level in the economy, that the unemployment rate dropped as a result. As long as the amount of jobless claims keeps decreasing, then we are doing well off enough.
ReplyDeleteIt is defiantly a good sign that the unemployment rate and the initial claim for unemployment benefits are decreasing. Getting the economy back to pre recession levels is ideal but it will take some time. Decreasing unemployment numbers is a good start and hopefully this continues in the future.
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