Sunday, April 14, 2013

Monetary Policy: The Mystery of Stable Prices

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/04/monetary-policy-1

This article brings to light how an increase in the unemployment rate normally goes along with deflation. It asks why this has not happended with our current and most recent rise in unemployment. Of course it answers that central banks prevented that from happening, but then the question, "Then why is there so much unemployment?" was posed.

The article says the central banks' credibility is an extremely important factor. In the 1980s, when it handled the inflation well and "adopted low targets for it, they firmly anchored beliefs about future growth in prices and wages." This credibility is "self-fulfilling." As workers expect a rise in prices, they tend to, just slowly, not push as hard for higher wages. Firms kept prices and costs down. This also helped prevent deflation when the crisis happened.

"As inflation has become more anchored, its links with other economic indicators have weakened... the IMF shows that changes in unemployment now influence inflation much less than in the past."

As for business cycles, central banks used to a high correlation between inflation and unemployment will underestimate the effect of economic shocks. The article then poses the question: Has the link between inflation and unemployment broken down or merely changed?
-"Stabilisation of inflation may actually imply a shift in economic volatility to other variables... But stable inflation may also help translate variations in demand into quantity shifts rather than price shifts. "

It concludes:
"Central banks must either raise their inflation targets to reduce the extent to which demand shifts generate large real losses, or they must adopt and stabilise a new measure of demand, since inflation is obviously no longer adequate."

They offer the alternative of using nominal GDP. I agree that adopting nominal GDP would be a practical change that may be needed, but how well would we do if we changed from our common ways to something new? I think it would need some fine tuning. Would the choice be smart/worth it? What would come of it?






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