The CNBC All-America Economic Survey's third quarter found 43 percent of the public believes the economy is either excellent or good, which is a record high in the survey's 10 year history. While only 36 percent believe the economy will get better, which is down a few points after the previous survey, the percentage of citizens who believe the economy will get worse in down six points. This survey shows that the American public is confident in the economy, which itself will have significant economic benefits. When consumer confidence is high, people are more willing to spend money and further boost the economy. The economy can often be a self-fulfilling prophecy, meaning that when the public believes the economy to be good, it will be. This rise in consumer confidence will result in a boost in spending and investment, raising our GDP. This increase in economic confidence, however, has not resulted in a change in the approval ratings of our President. Both republicans and democrats would agree that Trump's approval will roughly maintain their current position, with approval at 38 percent and disapproval at 52 percent.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/03/american-optimism-about-the-economy-fails-to-lift-trumps-approval-ratings.html
Sunday, October 8, 2017
September job report
For the first time since September 2010, U.S. nonfarm employers shed jobs last month. But that could reflect hurricane-related disruptions more than an actual change in underlying labor-market conditions.The unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% in September, a level not seen since early 2001, because more Americans found jobs even as the labor force expanded.The Labor Department said the hurricanes didn’t appear to affect the unemployment rate for last month.Another sign of hurricane-related distortions in Friday’s report: Nearly 1.5 million people reported in September that they had a job but weren’t at work due to bad weather.Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers were $26.55 in September, jumping 0.45% from the prior month and rising 2.9% over the past year. The pop could reflect, in part, low-wage workers dropping out of the sample because they weren’t working due to the hurricanes.The labor-force participation rate has stabilized in recent years, though the aging U.S. population and other headwinds may send it lower in the future. It was 63.1% last month, up 0.2 percentage point from a month earlier.
For the first time since September 2010, U.S. nonfarm employers shed jobs last month. But that could reflect hurricane-related disruptions more than an actual change in underlying labor-market conditions.The unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% in September, a level not seen since early 2001, because more Americans found jobs even as the labor force expanded.The Labor Department said the hurricanes didn’t appear to affect the unemployment rate for last month.Another sign of hurricane-related distortions in Friday’s report: Nearly 1.5 million people reported in September that they had a job but weren’t at work due to bad weather.Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers were $26.55 in September, jumping 0.45% from the prior month and rising 2.9% over the past year. The pop could reflect, in part, low-wage workers dropping out of the sample because they weren’t working due to the hurricanes.The labor-force participation rate has stabilized in recent years, though the aging U.S. population and other headwinds may send it lower in the future. It was 63.1% last month, up 0.2 percentage point from a month earlier.
https://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2017/10/06/september-jobs-report-the-numbers-3/
Amazon's Second Headquarters
As amazon searches for a new home for their second headquarters, many cities are doing big things to catch their eye. Tucson sent a 21-foot cactus, Birmingham has had three massive amazon boxes placed around the city, Stonecrest has stated that they would de-annex 345 acres to call the "City of Amazon," and there has been much more, too.
The facility itself is said to cost at least five billion dollars to construct and operate, bringing in lots of money for different businesses. With a facility of that magnitude, it is believed that it will bring in at least 50,000 jobs, which is why one amazon's preferences was a population of at least one million people. Clearly two of the main advantages of having their headquarters in your city is jobs and growth. People get jobs, they get paid and they spend more locally which will have a huge impact on local businesses. In another article, Amazon estimated they had an indirect impact of $38 billion on Seattle. However, there are some downsides to a facility this large. One being that with the amount of jobs it will create, it'll most likely take people from their previous jobs. Another being affordability. People looking to become employed by amazon will need places to live which means new, affordable housing development so that they don't price out lower and working class families.
I see that there are many disadvantages to having a second amazon headquarters, but the advantages out-weigh them. I'm sure that cities are considering the disadvantages and are realizing if it will hurt them or help them in the long run.
As amazon searches for a new home for their second headquarters, many cities are doing big things to catch their eye. Tucson sent a 21-foot cactus, Birmingham has had three massive amazon boxes placed around the city, Stonecrest has stated that they would de-annex 345 acres to call the "City of Amazon," and there has been much more, too.
The facility itself is said to cost at least five billion dollars to construct and operate, bringing in lots of money for different businesses. With a facility of that magnitude, it is believed that it will bring in at least 50,000 jobs, which is why one amazon's preferences was a population of at least one million people. Clearly two of the main advantages of having their headquarters in your city is jobs and growth. People get jobs, they get paid and they spend more locally which will have a huge impact on local businesses. In another article, Amazon estimated they had an indirect impact of $38 billion on Seattle. However, there are some downsides to a facility this large. One being that with the amount of jobs it will create, it'll most likely take people from their previous jobs. Another being affordability. People looking to become employed by amazon will need places to live which means new, affordable housing development so that they don't price out lower and working class families.
I see that there are many disadvantages to having a second amazon headquarters, but the advantages out-weigh them. I'm sure that cities are considering the disadvantages and are realizing if it will hurt them or help them in the long run.
Economy loses 33,000 jobs in September thanks to hurricanes, unemployment drops to 4.2 percent
Due to hurricane damages and chaos induced, employment has been decreasing. The question is now, how long until it can be turned around. This decrease in jobs has been the first recorded in the last seven years. We hope that this is a temporary happening. When looking at what jobs were being lost a large percentage of them were in the bar and restaurant industries that are greatly effected by natural disasters like in Texas and Florida. We also see an affect on those that are employed. 1.5 million of the employed didn't work at the time of the hurricanes for about a month, a record high statistic. All of these effects will be short term and these states will be able to rally and get back to work.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/economy-loses-33000-jobs-in-september-thanks-to-hurricanes-unemployment-drops-to-42-percent/article/2636728
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/economy-loses-33000-jobs-in-september-thanks-to-hurricanes-unemployment-drops-to-42-percent/article/2636728
Las Vegas will rebound from deadliest shooting in modern U.S. history
Las Vegas is currently in the midst of recovering from the deadliest shooting in modern U.S. history. Studies show that Americans will continue to visit Las Vegas because the gunmen appear to have been working alone and not in connection to terrorist groups. The public usually interprets a solo act like this as being unlikely to recur in the future and therefore continue to visit. International tourists, however, may stay away because they feel unsafe with the gun regulations in America. International tourists account for approximately 8.6 million of the 43 million annual tourists that visit Vegas or in other words, 1 in 10 international visitors to the U.S. stop in Vegas. The consensus is things should bounce back pretty quickly if there is a drop in international tourists visiting Las Vegas as a tourist destination. I agree and see Las Vegas bouncing back quickly as people try not to let the erratic and inexplicable actions of a single human being dictate their lives especially when it comes to a place as iconic as Las Vegas.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/03/news/las-vegas-international-tourism-attack/index.html?iid=SF_LN
US companies might use tax reform profits to invest in automation, experts say
If the US tax reform that Republicans have been pushing gets passed; U.S. companies will be given a huge break resulting in lots of cash to invest. Specifically the ability to make investments they have been holding out on, economic experts say that most likely they will be investing in automation. Matt Litfin, who is a portfolio manger at Columbia Acorn, says to expect corporations to invest in share buybacks and new manufacturing capabilities.
Eric Marshall, a portfolio manager at Hodges Capital, thinks that investing in technology and automation will be the vast majority first move for corporations. They will look to maximize production with their existing employees, this could cause them to hire new workers. By maximizing each employee's production possibilities, it will make them more valuable. Hodges believes that this will cause future jobs to require higher education and skills, and we will loose a lot of the lower skilled positions. For our nation's economy as a whole, automation could cause a boost in growth due to the fact that many companies would end up bring production back to the US, because of the tax reform. Bringing production back to the US will cause more job creation. This is President Trump's main objectives for this tax reform.
This tax reform is scheduled to be approved and completed by the start of 2018. This reform could cause huge growth for the US economy. It will make room for higher skilled jobs. It will allow corporations to move production back to the US, thus creating more jobs at home. It will decrease the amount of factories in Asia. The tax reform will allow corporations to invest more which will better their companies. I think it's a great idea, because of all stated above and it will then lead to greater salaries for the people with higher education, giving the consumer more to spend in the economy.
Eric Marshall, a portfolio manager at Hodges Capital, thinks that investing in technology and automation will be the vast majority first move for corporations. They will look to maximize production with their existing employees, this could cause them to hire new workers. By maximizing each employee's production possibilities, it will make them more valuable. Hodges believes that this will cause future jobs to require higher education and skills, and we will loose a lot of the lower skilled positions. For our nation's economy as a whole, automation could cause a boost in growth due to the fact that many companies would end up bring production back to the US, because of the tax reform. Bringing production back to the US will cause more job creation. This is President Trump's main objectives for this tax reform.
This tax reform is scheduled to be approved and completed by the start of 2018. This reform could cause huge growth for the US economy. It will make room for higher skilled jobs. It will allow corporations to move production back to the US, thus creating more jobs at home. It will decrease the amount of factories in Asia. The tax reform will allow corporations to invest more which will better their companies. I think it's a great idea, because of all stated above and it will then lead to greater salaries for the people with higher education, giving the consumer more to spend in the economy.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/10/09/us-companies-might-use-tax-reform-profits-to-invest-in-automation-experts-say.html
The next financial crisis may be triggered by central banks
Debt is used to finance the purchase of assets, and the greater availability of credit pushes asset prices higher. From time to time, however, lenders lose faith in borrowers’ ability to repay and stop lending; a fire sale of assets can follow, further weakening the belief in the creditworthiness of borrowers.
Central banks then step in to cut interest rates or (since 2008) to buy assets directly. This brings the crisis to a temporary halt but each cycle seems to result in higher debt levels and asset prices. The chart shows that the combined valuation of bonds and equities in the developed world is higher than ever before.
All this suggests that the financial system could be due another crisis. Deutsche makes several suggestions at to what might cause one, from a debt-related crash in China, through the rise of populist political parties to the problem of illiquidity in bond markets.
The most likely trigger for a sell-off is the withdrawal of support by central banks; after all, the monetary authorities are generally credited with having saved the global economy and markets in 2009. In America the Federal Reserve is pushing up interest rates and reducing the size of its balance-sheet; the European Central Bank seems likely to cut the scale of its asset purchases next year; the Bank of England might even increase rates for the first time in more than a decade.
Central banks are well aware of the dangers, of course; that is why interest rates are still so low, even though developed economies have been growing for several years. But the process of withdrawing stimulus is tricky. A big sell-off in the government-bond markets in 1994 started when the Fed tightened policy after a period when rates were kept low during the savings-and-loan crisis.
The high level of asset prices means that any kind of return to “normal” valuation levels would constitute a crisis, on Deutsche’s definition. That might mean that central banks are forced to change course and loosen policy again. But the process would take a little time; central banks will not want to appear too enslaved to the markets.
Many investors will want to ride out the volatility; that has been a winning strategy in the past. The problems will emerge among those investors who have borrowed money to buy assets—in America the volume of such debt exceeds the level reached in 2008. The big question is which is the most vulnerable asset class. American mortgage-backed securities were the killers in 2008; it is bound to be something different this time round.
https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21729750-process-withdrawing-monetary-stimulus-fraught-danger-next
Brexit Mustn't Shut Door on Unskilled EU Workers, Retailers Warn
News link --> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-08/brexit-mustn-t-shut-door-on-unskilled-eu-workers-retailers-warn
The Brexit is affecting not only the non-UK citizens, but also possibly the economy of the UK. Around two-thirds of their food and drink supply chain workforce are from the countries of EU, and if they are not granted access to England, then the economy will receive fatal blow.
The ones that should be accepted are the unskilled workers. If they are not permitted to work in the United Kingdom, there will be less product choices and the prices will rise as well. Currently, the agricultural section is facing the worst situation, as they lack workers to pick up the crops to sell.
Around 83 percent of the retailers of the United Kingdom hire unskilled EU nationals to work, and 22 percent of them have lost their EU nationals.
The biggest concern is that the UK will suffer very gravely during holidays such as Christmas, as there will be shortage of employees to do the easy work. I don't know why the UK is still trying to exit the EU when they have no realistic solution towards problems such as this. This may be very minor but the workers reducing drastically in an industry that handles human necessities will affect the economy negatively in various ways.
The Brexit is affecting not only the non-UK citizens, but also possibly the economy of the UK. Around two-thirds of their food and drink supply chain workforce are from the countries of EU, and if they are not granted access to England, then the economy will receive fatal blow.
The ones that should be accepted are the unskilled workers. If they are not permitted to work in the United Kingdom, there will be less product choices and the prices will rise as well. Currently, the agricultural section is facing the worst situation, as they lack workers to pick up the crops to sell.
Around 83 percent of the retailers of the United Kingdom hire unskilled EU nationals to work, and 22 percent of them have lost their EU nationals.
The biggest concern is that the UK will suffer very gravely during holidays such as Christmas, as there will be shortage of employees to do the easy work. I don't know why the UK is still trying to exit the EU when they have no realistic solution towards problems such as this. This may be very minor but the workers reducing drastically in an industry that handles human necessities will affect the economy negatively in various ways.
The Fed's President, Harker says it's still a 2 percent growth economy until we see some change on the fiscal side
Harker believes that the U.S will remain stuck in a
growth economy at around 2 percent, which has been slow for some time, until
lawmakers come up with a tax plan to boost the economy. A positive change in the
GDP growth rate can occur if there are changes in taxes and government spending.
Harker states he needs more details from the GOP tax overhaul to see if the GDP
growth rate will increase. In the tax reform proposal, the Republicans are
trying to slash corporate taxes, reduce the tax bracket for individuals and cut
taxes for the middle class with the hope that if more income goes back to the working-class
family they will buy more consumer goods and invest more money back into the
economy. President Donald Trump says that this plan will bring at least a 3
percent growth rate to the economy. Harker believes that they should enact a
rate hike later this year and see how inflation dynamics play out.
Critics of the tax reform believe that the tax reform focuses
too much on providing financial brakes for the wealthiest taxpayers and not
enough relief for the rest of the population. This could mean that even though
they are trying to give some income back to the working family it wouldn’t be
enough to see a huge raise in consumption. One factor is that people might want
to save more and consume less because they are unsure of the future economic
growth. Less spending could mean less money will flow into the economy and the hope
for goods production and business expansion will not occur. There would not be an increase in jobs either, which could affect government revenues and government spending.
Low money supply and government spending could adversely affect the national
saving and overall impact the world interest rate.
How Hurricanes Skewed September’s Job Numbers
Hurricane Irma and Harvey have heavily impacted employment in the United States. For the first time in seven years, the U.S. economy experienced a job declining, caused by employers cutting 33,000 jobs. Jonathon Wright, an economist for Brooklyn Institutions, estimated that there would have been a 67,000 increase in jobs if the Hurricanes had not hit the U.S. The monthly job report has a section that describes people as people who usually have jobs but do not because of the weather. This year, 1.5 million full-time and 3 million part-time workers fell into that category. The average wage raised marginally, which to some people looks like a good thing. In reality, many low-payed, low-skilled workers were laid off. So, the increase in average wage is not something to be excited about in this circumstance. The numbers in September were bad, but they did not even include the Hurricane that happened in Puerto Rico. Obviously, September was not a good month for the job market, but October looks a bit more promising. Most of the people that have been unable to work in Texas and Florida, will be able to get back to their jobs by the end of October. Also, due to all of the damage caused by the hurricane, there is an increased demand for construction workers and insurance adjusters. Therefore, there should be a good amount of job growth in October.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/business/economy/jobs-effect-hurricane-harvey-irma.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fbusiness-economy&action=click&contentCollection=economy®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=4&pgtype=sectionfront
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/business/economy/jobs-effect-hurricane-harvey-irma.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fbusiness-economy&action=click&contentCollection=economy®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=4&pgtype=sectionfront
Goldman Sachs to Explore Staring Bitcoin Trading Venture
Goldman Sachs is thinking about getting into trading digital currencies like bitcoin in response to an increase in interest from clients. Goldman Sachs's approach differs from that of JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon, who said last month that he would fire any employee on the spot if they were found to be trading digital currencies. He also said that the market is fake and that the bank does not facilitate trades of an exchange-traded note tied to the price of bitcoin. Goldman Sachs has been doing some research into bitcoin and is ready to open a $500 million hedge fund to invest in cryptocurrencies.
It is interesting to see such big names taking such strong stances on cryptocurrencies right now. JPMorgan thinks crypotcurrencies are fraudulent and not worth their time while Goldman Sachs sees a really great opportunity to invest. Goldman Sachs has taken some risks over the years that have come back to bite them so it'll be interesting to see if their digital currencies idea shakes out to what they hope it will be. The success of bitcoin has opened the way for many other cryptocurrencies to come to the fold. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to such a new idea like this. These items are pretty much traded like stocks and if the market gets big enough it could become an astronomical industry. It is still pretty early in the life of digital currencies but with big companies paying close attention to it is huge. There are a lot of possibilities for this market and it can effect the overall economy in a big way.
It is interesting to see such big names taking such strong stances on cryptocurrencies right now. JPMorgan thinks crypotcurrencies are fraudulent and not worth their time while Goldman Sachs sees a really great opportunity to invest. Goldman Sachs has taken some risks over the years that have come back to bite them so it'll be interesting to see if their digital currencies idea shakes out to what they hope it will be. The success of bitcoin has opened the way for many other cryptocurrencies to come to the fold. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to such a new idea like this. These items are pretty much traded like stocks and if the market gets big enough it could become an astronomical industry. It is still pretty early in the life of digital currencies but with big companies paying close attention to it is huge. There are a lot of possibilities for this market and it can effect the overall economy in a big way.
Treasury recommends looser financial market controls to encourage growth
The US treasury came out with a report on Friday with a few ideas on how to encourage growth in US capital markets. They want to loosen the reins a bit on regulations for businesses.
They want to repeal disclosure requirements for natural resource extraction companies. Another disclosure they want to repeal is reporting the salaries of employees, in contrast to the CEO's.
They want to increase the amount of crowdfunding that is legal by 4 million dollars. As well as "Opening up private markets to more investors and revisiting the "accredited investor" definition...Limiting use of informal guidance, no-action letters or interpretation to impose new regulations, in contrast to making rules through notices and comments."
Overall I think it's a good idea to revisit the idea of who an "accredited investor is". Right now it is based on income, you are qualified if you have a net worth of $1 million or an annual salary of $200,000 for the last two years. Opening this up with get rid of some of the barriers of entry for firms. And will make firms more competitive, leaving consumers with a better product. As well as happy people being allowed to have their own firms if they wish to pursue such.
A question that we have to keep in mind, is if these deregulation's will in the end have a net benefit for consumers.
Taking away disclosure of salaries could mask corruption in firms. 4 million more dollars worth of funds could be funneled from a source with bad intentions. And firms could fail without the security of a secure high net investor.
Do you guys think this will be beneficial in the end for consumers as well as firms?
They want to repeal disclosure requirements for natural resource extraction companies. Another disclosure they want to repeal is reporting the salaries of employees, in contrast to the CEO's.
They want to increase the amount of crowdfunding that is legal by 4 million dollars. As well as "Opening up private markets to more investors and revisiting the "accredited investor" definition...Limiting use of informal guidance, no-action letters or interpretation to impose new regulations, in contrast to making rules through notices and comments."
Overall I think it's a good idea to revisit the idea of who an "accredited investor is". Right now it is based on income, you are qualified if you have a net worth of $1 million or an annual salary of $200,000 for the last two years. Opening this up with get rid of some of the barriers of entry for firms. And will make firms more competitive, leaving consumers with a better product. As well as happy people being allowed to have their own firms if they wish to pursue such.
A question that we have to keep in mind, is if these deregulation's will in the end have a net benefit for consumers.
Taking away disclosure of salaries could mask corruption in firms. 4 million more dollars worth of funds could be funneled from a source with bad intentions. And firms could fail without the security of a secure high net investor.
Do you guys think this will be beneficial in the end for consumers as well as firms?
Global Economy’s Stubborn Reality: Plenty of Work, Not Enough Pay
While the global unemployment rate has decreased, wages have not improved. More jobs have become available, but they do not offer attractive wages. Many attribute the current situation to the long, slow recovery from the Great Recession. Others, however, blame power structures and corporate mistreatment of workers. While unions have lost influence, and technological advancements such as automation have replaced countless professions. Fueled by increased global connectivity, outsourcing has also replaced domestic jobs due to the significantly lower costs of labor in Asia and Latin America.
This trend is not exclusive to the United States. Many first-world countries including Britain, Japan, and Norway have all seen a failure to increase wages. The decline in union influence has contributed to a decrease in job quality, and temp work has increased in popularity. The mediocre wages have the potential to have a damaging effect on the economy, especially resulting from a decrease in productivity due to lack of incentives for underpaid workers.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/07/business/unemployment-wages-economy.html
This trend is not exclusive to the United States. Many first-world countries including Britain, Japan, and Norway have all seen a failure to increase wages. The decline in union influence has contributed to a decrease in job quality, and temp work has increased in popularity. The mediocre wages have the potential to have a damaging effect on the economy, especially resulting from a decrease in productivity due to lack of incentives for underpaid workers.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/07/business/unemployment-wages-economy.html
The Folly of Trump`s Nationalist Economic Protectionism
President Trump`s reactionist and short termist planning has been evidenced by his numerous campaign promises and subsequent measures to implement his vision of a better America. Among the many huge things he promised was more protectionist policies. One of these measures was the elimination of the trans pacific trade pact, which would have opened huge opportunities in the constantly growing Asia pacific region. Now though, those opportunities will most likely be taken up by China, a huge rival for the U.S in that area. Another policy he suggested was a 10% tariff on all imports in the U.S, effectively making all commodities not made in the U.S.A, 10% more expensive. The complete ramifications of this would remain to be seen, but it will in any case reduce consumption levels further, and that might bring down inflation even lower too, which isn't necessarily desired considering as the U.S is already at a relatively low level of inflation. It has been claimed that this will be done to curb the U.S trade deficit, but the fact of the matter is, the trade deficit is not a big problem for the U.S given how much large scale backing it has from investors, at home and abroad. A definite effect of the tariff would be to deter investment in the U.S, and seeing as how global politics work, it would probably lead to reactionary measures from other countries such as a similar tariff on U.S exports. Making imports more costly would obviously reduce imports, but also reduce the amount of spending foreigners might be able to make in the U.S, so exports will in any case fall, both because of the retaliation and the lessening of spending ability for foreign countries. An aim of Trump is to bring back more manufacturing in the U.S and have more of it done by U.S workers, but in the end, making foreign products more expensive will deter investors and foreign companies-such as Honda and BMW who have historically had high output factories in the U.S- from concentrating production in the U.S, as the value of their import would fall by that much because of the cost increase, and the cost of U.S production using foreign raw material and intermediate goodwill significantly increase as well, so really Trump`s policy will only serve to reduce trade, and there isn't necessarily any indication that it will reduce the trade deficit. As the cited article states, the only real reason for the tariff would be to show the world who`s boss, which seems to be President Trump`s biggest concern.
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/economy-budget/312900-trumps-import-taxes-could-devastate-us-economy
Las Vegas Shooting Effect on Economy
Tourism is
the big thing for Las Vegas and after the shooting that could really impact the
economy and the amount of people that pass through. But Mayor Carolyn Goodman made it seem like
it would have she did not think this type of tragedy could impact their economy
significantly. She even made a point to
say that this type of thing could happen anywhere and it was just unfortunate
that it happened to be in Las Vegas where the biggest source of income and
money is from tourist. But past
statistics say otherwise. Looking at the
two specific attacks that happened around the world and both the cities where
these occurred saw dramatic drops in visitation. The two cities were Miami and Paris. In Miami after the mass shooting they saw
visitation drop by about 7% and in Paris they saw hotel occupancy drop by 12%
and visitation severely decreased. This
could be a huge issue for Las Vegas because they really cannot afford for
people to stop visiting because that is where all of their money seems to come
from tourist. This should only really
affect the short run economy for the most part because as sad as it is people
will forget about the attack after the next couple months so more people will
be coming back to Las Vegas later on because they will not be worried about
shootings occurring.
Amazon and Luxury Market
Recently Amazon's negotiations with the Swatch Group(Manufacturer of Omega watches and other high end accessories) fell through, they viewed Amazon as a risk and not a place that really went with their brand. The risk of counterfeit products is too high on Amazon and they want a guarantee from Amazon that they will be proactive in keeping out these counterfeit products, Amazon refuses to make that commitment. Amazon has the view that problems like counterfeit products lies solely on the shoulders of the manufacturers themselves, not on Amazon. Some other lower luxury brands have gone to Amazon, such as Calvin Klein, but overall luxury brands don't think Amazon has the luxury value or the exclusivity that allows them to keep higher prices. The real question is though will they be able to ignore the huge Amazon marketplace? What do you think the effect of large luxury brands being on Amazon have on their sales and prices?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-has-a-luxury-problem-1507460401
https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-has-a-luxury-problem-1507460401
Rates are jumping as jobs report showed hidden signs of inflation
This article is about the jobs report and how most interest rate benchmarks increased to new high-levels. Both the 2-year and 10-year T-Note hit new highs of 1.52% and 2.39%. The fed believes that the economy is facing real wage pressure as the average annual wage number has raised by 2.9%. Meanwhile, the Fed's benchmark inflation rate is 2%. So as we can see, wages are growing at a faster rate than we would like. Editor, Larry McDonald said, "For the first time in potentially a decade we're actually looking at real wage pressure. The slack in the labor force is finally dissipating" (McDonald). This higher-than-average wage growth has caused the interest rates on these Treasury Notes to slightly increase. This is good news for bond investors and savers, as people are going to be able to have higher returns on savings. However, the labor market could be affected as supply of labor could decrease.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/rates-are-jumping-as-jobs-report-showed-hidden-signs-of-inflation.html
How Hurricanes Skewed September’s Job Numbers
Around 30,000 workers would be out
of jobs in a typical September and nearly 3 million people reported working
part-time because of the weather. Had it not been for the hurricanes, job
growth would have been positive and would have set a new record of 84th
consecutive month. “Jonathan
Wright, an economist affiliated with the Brookings Institution, estimated that
Friday’s report would have shown a 67,000 increase in jobs had it not been for
the effect of the hurricanes” In addition, Chief economist at indeed.com, Jed
Kolko also mentioned that September’s employment declines dramatically. “Employment
in the leisure and hospitality sector, for example, which includes hotels,
restaurants and other weather-dependent businesses, was cut by 111,000 jobs in
September” Kolko.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/business/economy/jobs-effect-hurricane-harvey-irma.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fbusiness-economy
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