Wholesale Prices Rose, But Not As Expected

    Producer prices rose in March, but not nearly as high as expected. The producer price index was expected to rise much higher than it did due to the war in Iran. It rose by about 0.5% for the month which is much lower than the Dow Jones consensus estimated (1.1% was the expected amount). Excluding food and energy core PPI only rose by about 0.1% which was significantly lower than expected (0.5% was the estimate). Despite this annually PPI rose 4% which is the highest it has been since 2023. 

    Energy seemed to be the driver of this increase due to the war. Gasoline prices rose 15.7%, diesel by 42%, and jet fuel by 30.7%. The war in Iran has severely impacted the energy sector and has caused prices to rise significantly.  However, because the "services" side of the economy stayed relatively flat it offset some of the effects that energy would have had on inflation. 

    It seems like the Fed is expecting to keep interest rates stable. The outlook is that inflation is on the path toward the 2% goal. The chances of a rate cut occurring seems low at a 25% chance of a cut occurring for the rest of the year. Overall, it seems like the market is remaining relatively calm. It has been noted that since the ceasefire was announced oil prices have already reduced by 15%, suggesting that April's numbers should show further stability.

Wholesale prices rose 0.5% in March, much less than expected despite war impact

Middle East oil production plunges due to Iran war, OPEC data shows

Oil production across major Gulf countries haas dropped sharply due to the ongoing Iran war, according to OPEC data. Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia all saw significant declines, largely because exports through the Strait of Hormuz have been disrupted by attacks and instability. Saudi Arabia also faced damage to a key pipeline, further limiting output. Overall, OPEC production fell by 27% in March. 

While Iran's production decreased slightly, it has continued exporting oil, though it now faces a U.S. naval blockade after failed negotiations. Experts say it could take several months for Gulf countries to restore production levels, and the supply disruption has pushed global oil prices back up to around $100 per barrel.

Middle East oil production plunges due to Iran war, OPEC data shows

Global Talks Begin Over Hormuz Blockade

    President Trump has begun working with leaders from China, India, and Iran to finally end the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The blockade has caused a massive shock to the oil market, due to the importance of the Strait of Hormuz. These talks are a necessary step to prevent oil prices from staying at these elevated levels or even increasing in the future.

    One of the main concerns is that if a resolution isn't found, the continued uncertainty will continue to push energy costs higher. Energy prices affect everything from manufacturing to shipping to household maintenance. With major economies like the US, China, and India involved, it shows just how much is at stake for international trade. If the blockade issue cannot be resolved, we might see a more long-term shift in how energy reserves are managed. Along with that we could see trade agreements to avoid these types of shocks in the future.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/13/trump-hormuz-blockade-oil-shock-china-iran-india-vessels-peace-talks.html

U.S. Moves to Shut Down Key Oil Route After Iran Negotiations Collapse

President Donald Trump announced that the United States will begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz after peace talks with Iran in Pakistan ended without an agreement. The talks failed largely due to disagreements over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its broader demands, including control of the strait and financial reparations. This new movement aims to stop Iran from controlling and profiting from the key oil route, which carries a large share of the world’s energy supply.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global oil route, carrying about one-fifth of the world’s supply. Its disruption has already strained global markets, driving oil prices above $100 per barrel at times and increasing economic uncertainty worldwide.

Iran responded by warning that increased U.S. military presence in the area would violate the current ceasefire and could trigger retaliation. Iranian officials also signaled that non-military ships can still pass under certain rules, while criticizing the potential economic consequences, including rising gas prices.

Although Trump claimed allies would help enforce the blockade, support remains unclear. The United Kingdom indicated it would not participate, emphasizing the importance of keeping the waterway open for global trade.

The escalating situation raises concerns about further economic instability and the possibility of broader conflict if tensions continue to rise.

Trump says U.S. will blockade Strait of Hormuz after Iran peace talks fail

More business openings than closings in Oregon in last decade, despite economic stigma

 The stigma around the Oregon economy for some time has been pretty negative, especially around the city of Portland. The main topic of discussion is that businesses are closing by the handful, and their downtown locations are sinking. But what I have learned after reading this article, it is clear that there are some major positives not being given enough attention. Starting with Oregon has had more business openings compared to closures for the most part of the last 10 years and a similar rate in 2023. This is able to happen due to their workforce having higher education, there is a lower bar compared to other states to establish a business, receive a tremendous amount of support from the colleges/banks, and their growing population. Though there is progress, it comes with some warnings because the number of business openings decreased a bit after 2024, and compared to big factories, small shops do not employ more people, causing the unemployment rate to increase. 

New CPI data, Economy awaits Fed decsion on rates.

CPI rose 3.3% which some say was less than expected considering the war in Iran. Major increases in oil prices was one of the main causes for this increase in March.  With the new numbers everyone will wait on the Fed's decision on what to do with interest rates. There is inlfation going on while growth is slowly in the economy which puts the Fed in a tricky situation. 

    The past couple of years prices have been increasing but wages for many people have not been keeping up which has led to a slowing of the economy. I expect the Fed to cut rates to try and stimulate come growth but that will ultimately lead to higher rates of inflation. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2026/04/10/march-inflation-report-cpi--live/89503290007/

When the Rupee Sneezes, the Dollar Feels It

On March 30, 2026, the rupee crossed 95 per U.S. dollar for the first time in history. In three weeks, it lost 4% of its value. Brent crude surpassed $110 a barrel following escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States.

India imports 85% of its crude oil. Every $10 rise in oil prices adds roughly $15 billion to India's annual import bill. That bill is paid in dollars, which increases dollar demand and weakens the rupee directly.

Foreign investors pulled billions from Indian equities and bonds during the same period. Global capital moved into U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset. The dollar strengthened as a result, putting additional downward pressure on the rupee.

The U.S. and India had announced a trade framework weeks earlier. The agreement cut average U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to approximately 18%. A rupee at 95 versus 85 increases the rupee cost of Indian purchases of American goods by roughly 12%, partially offsetting the tariff reduction.

India's central bank intervened in foreign exchange markets using its reserve stockpile. It also imposed limits on banks' open dollar positions to reduce speculative pressure. The rupee rebounded temporarily following these measures.

India runs a persistent current account deficit, driven largely by its oil import bill. The country relies on foreign capital inflows to finance a portion of its growth. Both factors increase India's structural vulnerability to dollar strengthening and commodity price shocks.

The Reserve Bank of India held foreign exchange reserves of approximately $640 billion entering March 2026. Intervention draws down those reserves without addressing the underlying trade and capital flow dynamics. Reserve depletion itself can trigger further loss of investor confidence if sustained.

A weaker rupee makes Indian exports cheaper in dollar terms. India supplies roughly 40% of U.S. generic drug imports. Dollar strengthening therefore has direct implications for U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain costs.

RFK Jr. and FDA on peptides

 Peptides, popular among the younger generation offer an almost too good to be true solution to health problems. RFK Jr. is typically known to promote "natural" health remedies, with some calling him anti-vax, but he is now promoting peptides — short chain amino acids like BPD-157 and TB-500 which have notoriously been popular in body building forums, now popular in the Make America Healthy Again movement.

Healthy Secretary RFK Jr. has emerged as a vocal advocate for peptides, stating in a recent Joe Rogan podcast that he expects the FDA to reclassify approximately 14 different peptide drugs. His goal? To allow compounding pharmacies to distribute them legally again. Back in 2023 the Biden administration tightened the reins, which are now a little loser. Current consumers import peptides from the "gray market" from places like China, which are frequently mislabeled or contaminated. RFK hopes to move away from the "Big Pharma" bureaucracy to allow for more personalized health optimization. Will these peptides be used intelligently under professional consultation and supervision or will they be used by teens as unregulated DIY protocols aiming to looksmaxx? To be determined. 

This is part of RFK's larger shift to get people more freedom in the medical space. But the risk of running self-directed experimentation that can severely alter you biologically and cosmetically is potentially high. "By virtue of inducing broad cell growth, growth hormone-related peptides carry the potential risk of cancer," warns longevity expert Eric Topol.

https://www.statnews.com/2026/04/06/rfk-jr-apparent-contradiction-peptides-vaccines-medical-libertarianism/

Oil Prices Plunge, But Expectations Still Drive the Market

Geopolitics and economics are rarely far apart and the recent U.S.–Iran ceasefire makes that connection hard to ignore. After weeks of conflict, President Trump agreed to a two-week pause while Iran allowed limited passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets didn't wait around. WTI dropped more than 16% and Brent fell nearly 14%, both settling near $94 a barrel. That kind of move doesn't reflect a supply recovery. It reflects a shift in what people expect to happen next.

Here's the thing about markets: they price in the future, not the present. During the conflict, oil carried a hefty risk premium because roughly 20% of global supply flows through Hormuz. The ceasefire trimmed those fears and investors quickly repriced the risk. But the physical reality hasn't caught up yet. Tanker traffic is still limited, ship movements remain restricted and infrastructure damage hasn't disappeared overnight. So what actually changed? Expectations softened but the underlying conditions didn't fully follow.

That gap matters for the broader economy. Oil prices ripple through inflation, production costs and growth and when those prices swing on uncertainty rather than fundamentals, the volatility spreads. Financial markets react to anticipated events just as much as real ones, which makes expectations a genuine driver of the business cycle. The recent price drop is a signal of reduced fear, not restored stability. It's a reminder that you don't need supply to actually recover for markets to move as if it already has.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/oil-prices-iran-war-trump-deadline-strait-hormuz.html 

Oil Prices Fall as Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz

Following a two-week ceasefire announcement between the United States and Iran, Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the ceasefire lasts. This came after President Trump set a deadline for a ceasefire to be reached and threatened to blow up Iran's entire civilization if a deal was not reached. In response to the news, oil prices dropped massively. WTI has its worst day since April 27, 2020. Prices per barrel for both Crude and WTI oil are currently around $95. It's unclear what will happen when the ceasefire ends, but for now, oil prices are far lower. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/oil-prices-iran-war-trump-deadline-strait-hormuz.html