Monday, May 4, 2026

Spirit Airlines shuts down as company says it can’t keep up with higher oil prices

    Spirit Airlines, which is known for being very low-cost, has shut down after years of financial problems. They had been dealing with debt for a long time and had already been through the bankruptcy process twice. It might've helped them in the short run, but it never really fixed the overarching problems. On top of this, higher fuel prices, higher operating costs, and tougher competition in the airline industry made it even harder for them to remain profitable. Even with demand for travel rebounding after the pandemic, Spirit was never able to get its finances worked out.

    In some of their final days, there was a last effort to keep the airline alive. This was through a bailout or takeover idea that had connections to the Trump administration. This idea depended on getting approval from creditors and other stakeholders, which ultimately never happened. After this, Spirit had no realistic path forward and started shutting things down. Flights were cancelled, leaving passengers trying to find new last-minute flights. If tickets were bought straight from Spirit, they had a reserve to refund these customers. Other airlines offered $200 one-way tickets for confirmed Spirit ticket holders. Overall, Spirit shows how risky the ultra-low-cost airline structure can be when costs suddenly rise, and there's no cushion to absorb it.


https://apnews.com/article/spirit-airlines-trump-bailout-bankruptcy-37a4818e1b71c0905d022f669d85948c


The Cost of AI in the Eyes of Investors

     In a recent article from the The Epoch Times, big tech companies like Google, Meta, and Microsoft just released their latest earnings reports, and while they’re making a large sum of profit, they’re also spending a massive amount of money on AI. Essentially, building the infrastructure needed for AI, like huge data centers and expensive computer chips is costing investors billions of dollars. Google seems to be handling it the best so far because they’re only using about half of their extra cash to pay for these upgrades. However, investors are getting a bit nervous about companies like Microsoft and Meta because they’re spending a much larger chunk of their money just to keep up in the AI race.
    This shows that the AI boom phase is finally starting to wear off. Before, everyone was just excited about the idea of AI, but now investors are starting to ask the questions of when do we actually make money from this? It’s not enough to just spend billions on new tech anymore, these companies have to prove that AI is actually going to pay off soon. If they don’t start showing real results or new ways to make profit in the next few months, we might see their stock prices take a hit as people realize how expensive this whole AI investment really is. 

https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/big-tech-posts-strong-earnings-as-ai-spending-pressures-cash-flow-6020476

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Supply Shocks? We’ve Had a Few. Here’s How Investors Can Deal

The article explains that the economy is currently facing a series of supply shocks, which are sudden disruptions that limit the availability of goods, labor, or energy. These shocks are difficult for the government to manage because their tools, like changing interest rates, cannot fix broken supply chains or provide more oil. For investors, these events are particularly challenging because they can cause prices to rise while economic growth slows down.

To deal with this uncertainty, the author suggests that investors move beyond simply planning for the most likely outcome. Instead, they should use scenario analysis to test how their portfolios would handle various situations such as a prolonged energy crisis. The article recommends focusing on resilience by investing in high-quality companies with economic moats that can pass higher costs on to customers. They say that diversification remains essential but investors are warned that traditional bonds may not provide protection during high inflation periods. The goal for investors is to prepare for a wider range of risks rather than betting on a single economic path.

As seen in the IS-LM models discussed in class this supply shock might have different impacts in the economy. There might be an decrease in GDP, an increase in interest rates, and an increase in price levels. 

https://www.morningstar.com/economy/supply-shocks-weve-had-few-heres-how-investors-can-deal 

Thursday, April 30, 2026

The Tariff Refund Process is Underway

     Two months after the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, American importers can apply for reimbursement starting Monday through a new US Customs and Border Protection portal. The refunds are expected to be returned within 60 - 90 days of applications, but could take longer depending on whether additional reviews of entries are merited. For the first phase of the refunds, only entities that have made certain tariff payments will be able to make refund requests, but it is still unclear when the system will open for all payments that are subject to a refund. 


https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/20/economy/tariff-refund-process-kicks-off 

The United States Just Found a Century of Lithium on Its Own Soil

The recent U.S. Geological Survey estimate that the eastern United States may hold about 2.3 million metric tons of lithium resources shows how domestic geology could reshape the economics of the energy transition. This endowment could replace current U.S. lithium imports for roughly 328 years at 2024 import levels, signaling a potential long run shift in the country’s external position on a key critical mineral. Moving from near total import dependence to a multi century domestic resource base would change expectations about trade balances, investment, and energy security far beyond the mining sector.

About 1.4 million metric tons of lithium oxide are estimated under North and South Carolina, with roughly 0.9 million metric tons across Maine and New Hampshire, together enough, on paper, to supply batteries for around 130 million electric vehicles and over a million large scale storage systems. Global lithium demand has grown at double digit annual rates, and the U.S. imports almost all of its primary lithium, so even bringing 20 to 30 percent of the 2.3 million ton resource into production would yield hundreds of thousands of tons of domestic supply, shifting billions of dollars of future imports into domestic capital formation, wages, and tax revenue. These figures turn the idea of resource security into concrete outcomes linked to current account balances, industrial policy, and the location of new manufacturing clusters.

The size of the resource sets an upper bound, but actual outcomes will be limited by permitting timelines, environmental and community resistance, and the volume of investment over the next decade. Large U.S. mining and processing projects often take 7 to 10 years to move from concept to production, and the eastern lithium belt runs through populated regions with strong local political voice, slowing or reshaping projects. The key transition is from treating lithium as a fixed import constraint to treating it as a variable shaped by domestic choices, with different development paths for the 2.3 million ton resource leading to distinct trajectories for trade balances, investment, and the pace of the energy transition.

US weekly jobless claims decrease as labor market conditions remain stable


The Federal Reserve is currently keeping interest rates at a moderate level, around 3.5% to 3.75%, in order to control inflation. When interest rates are higher, it becomes more expensive for people and businesses to borrow money, which reduces spending and investment. This helps slow down the overall economy and prevents prices from rising too quickly.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve has to be very careful with its decisions. If interest rates are raised too much or kept high for too long, it could reduce economic growth and lead to a recession. Because of this, the Fed is trying to find a balance between lowering inflation and maintaining a stable, growing economy without causing major job losses..


Source : https://www.reuters.com/business/us-weekly-jobless-claims-decrease-labor-market-conditions-remain-stable-2026-04-30/



AI-related investment, rebound in government spending drive US economy in first quarter

  The job market in the U.S. remains strong, with unemployment staying relatively low at around 4.3%. Many companies are holding onto their workers and layoffs are limited, which helps keep income stable for many households. This stability is a positive sign for the overall economy.

However, hiring has slowed down compared to previous years, meaning it may be harder for new job seekers to find opportunities. While the job market is still healthy, economists are paying attention to whether this strength can continue if economic conditions change.


Source : https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/us-growth-picks-up-first-quarter-2026-04-30

Economy picked up in early 2026, but inflation jumped, too

 Inflation has started to increase again, with prices rising around 3–3.5%, which is above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. A major reason for this increase is higher energy and gas prices, partly caused by global tensions and supply issues. As a result, everyday goods and services are becoming more expensive for consumers.

This rise in inflation reduces people’s purchasing power, meaning their money does not go as far as it used to. If inflation continues to rise, it could put pressure on both households and businesses, making it harder to save money and plan for the future.


Source : https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/04/30/economy-gdp-growth-first-quarter/

U.S. economy grew 2% in the first quarter, helped by AI boom and reversal of shutdown effects

 The U.S. economy is currently growing at a moderate pace, with GDP increasing by about 2% in early 2026. This growth is being supported by strong investment in new technologies like artificial intelligence and continued government spending. While this shows the economy is stable, it is not growing fast enough to be considered a major boom.

At the same time, this steady growth suggests that consumers are still spending and businesses are still operating confidently. However, economists are watching closely because slower growth could become a concern if it continues, especially if other problems like inflation begin to worsen.


 source : https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/gdp-q1-economy-trump? 

Economy Core inflation rate hit 3.2% in March as first-quarter growth disappointed at 2%

This report shows that inflation has stubbornly remained above the Federal Reserve's target level while economic growth has been modest. During the month of March, the core PCE rose 0.3% alone and 3.2% over the past year. Inflation reached 3.5% primarily due to the surge in energy prices in the U.S. While the economy did grow 2%, which is an improvement from Q4 of 2025, it still fell a bit below expectations. Despite higher prices in the economy, the job market still remains strong. Jobless claims are at their lowest since 1969, but with higher prices, many consumers are cutting back on spending. Given consumption has been a constant in recent years, this could be troubling if this trend continues. Overall, the economy is mixed; there is good job stability and growth in sectors such as AI, but with persistent inflation and higher prices, it's weighing on households. This is making it hard for the Federal Reserve to make a decision on what to do about interest rates. 


PCE inflation rate March 2026: