How U.S. trade uncertainty is buffeting small business

Small businesses make up about a third of U.S. international trade and employ almost 46% of American workers. Even though they play a key role in the economy, new research from Harvard Business School shows that many small and medium sized companies are struggling to survive as U.S. trade policy becomes more unpredictable.

A survey of over 4,000 small and medium-sized businesses found that quick changes in tariffs, being announced, delayed, withdrawn, and brought back, make it almost impossible for owners to predict costs, set prices, or sign long-term supplier contracts. Researchers say this uncertainty acts like a tax, making businesses delay hiring, put off investments, or rethink expanding.

Small businesses usually don’t have the cash reserves, legal help, or flexible supply chains that big companies do to handle sudden policy changes. Many depend on imported materials and can’t easily switch to domestic options, which are often more costly or hard to find. As a result, trade volatility hits smaller firms harder.

What stands out to me is not just the tariffs themselves, but how unstable they are. Even businesses willing to pay more can’t operate effectively when the rules keep changing. Economic policy does not happen in isolation; consistency is just as important as intent.

This uncertainty also gives bigger companies more power. Businesses with lawyers, consultants, and global supply chain experts can adapt more easily, while smaller firms are left to react rather than plan. Over time, this creates an uneven playing field that helps large corporations and makes it harder for small businesses to compete.

The effects go beyond just financial numbers. Small businesses are closely connected to their communities as employers, service providers, and sources of local stability. When they cut back or close, it leads to job losses, reduced access to goods and services, and fewer opportunities for people to move up economically.

Whether you support or oppose tariffs, the research shows one clear point: a predictable trade policy is important. Without a stable, clear system, uncertainty stunts growth and survival, especially for small businesses, the backbone of the U.S. economy.

https://www.hbs.edu/bigs/us-trade-uncertainty-buffeting-small-business

Trump Responds to EU-India Trade Deal with His Own

 The U.S. and India announced a huge trade overhaul that greatly affects global economic ties. President Trump and PM Modi agreed to cut reciprocal tariffs to 18% which is down from highs of 25 - 50%. This new 18% on tariffs for India is lower than both Vietnam's (20%) and China's which is a lot higher. A reason for this is that the U.S. is trying to move supply chains away from China, so giving India a lower tariff India becomes a very attractive place for companies to build their products. As part of the U.S. - India deal, India is committing to buying $500 billion worth of American products (oil, fam goods, etc.) and will also stop purchasing crude oil from Russia.

This comes right after India signed a similar deal with the European Union (EU). This shows just how much India is attempting to diversify their partners and increase their global economic connections. Overall, this deal is beneficial to both parties with the U.S. moving toward reciprocal trade, while India obtaining more market access to a larger export partner.

Citation: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/03/trump-us-india-trade-deal-europe-india-deal-compared.html

US Edu department proposes overhaul of Federal student loans, sets new caps on graduate borrowing

The U.S. Department of Education is proposing major changes to federal student loans, mainly for graduate and professional students. One of the biggest changes is eliminating the Grad PLUS loan program, which currently allows students to borrow almost unlimited amounts. Instead, the government wants to set clear limits on how much students can borrow each year and overall. Graduate students would have lower borrowing caps, while students in professional programs like law or medical school would be allowed higher limits. The goal is to prevent students from taking on overwhelming debt.

These changes are meant to make student loans simpler and more affordable in the long run. By limiting how much students can borrow, the government hopes to slow rising tuition costs and reduce financial stress after graduation. The plan would also simplify repayment by reducing the number of repayment options, making loans easier to understand and manage. The proposal is not final yet and is open for public comment, but if approved, it could significantly change how students pay for higher education.

Citation : https://www.edexlive.com/news/us-edu-department-proposes-overhaul-of-federal-student-loans-sets-new-caps-on-graduate-borrowing?utm

China and the U.K. Resetting Economic Ties

China and the United Kingdom are taking steps to rebuild their relationship after years of tension. The U.K. prime minister’s visit to China, the first in eight years, signals a shift toward renewed economic cooperation. Both sides discussed expanding trade and collaboration in areas such as finance, artificial intelligence, and clean energy.

The U.K. is also trying to diversify its trade partners amid global economic uncertainty and changing U.S. trade policies. While security concerns still exist, the visit shows that economic stability and long term growth are key priorities for both countries.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/29/china-uk-starmer-xi-relations-visit-businesses-.html

U.S.–Europe Trade Tensions Escalate Over Greenland

In January 2026, a serious trade dispute happened between the United States and several European countries after Donald Trump threatened to impose new tariffs tied to the situation in Greenland. Trump said he would begin applying a 10% tariff on imports from eight European nations on February 1, potentially rising to 25% by June. Unless those countries agreed to talks about Greenland, which is a territory of Denmark. This proposal alarmed European leaders, who called the threats “unacceptable” and held emergency meetings in Brussels to coordinate a response. European officials also talked about the idea of using the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) which is a tool designed to allow the European Union to fight back economically when countries use trade threats to force political decisions.

While some European leaders support doing so, others are more cautious about escalating the conflict. France argues the EU must be ready to use the ACI, while countries like Germany are more hesitant because they rely heavily on exports and are concerned about worsening trade relations. Although European leaders hope to use upcoming meetings, such as the World Economic Forum in Davos, to ease tensions through dialogue, economists warn that uncertainty could last for months. This is expected to hurt European economic growth and create continued instability in trade relations.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/19/europe-retaliatory-tariffs-aci-greenland-trump-threat-us.html

How U.S. midterm elections cay affect markets

 This article posted on January 22 explains that even with many dramatic global events happening in 2026, investors should still pay attention to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. Historically, the president's party usually loses seats in Congress during midterms, but the authors state that the white house is attempting to limit those loses with political message. Another point they make is that election years can cause markets to shift aggressively both up and down. 

The authors make a point to investors to not panic about political noise. The authors emphasize that markets have a long history of becoming calmer and performing better after midterm elections once the results are known. They encourage people to focus on long‑term fundamentals like company earnings and economic trends rather than short‑term headlines or political drama even though these short swings don't tend to change long term trajectories.

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/midterm-elections-markets-5-charts.html 

Major investment in OpenAI from Nvidia

 Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says that the company plans on making a "huge" investment in OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT. There were claims going around that Huang was unhappy with OpenAI, which he has denied. The deal is invest up to $100 billion dollars into ChatGPT, allowing them to finance advanced chips. This will allow Chat to remain one of the largest generative AI platforms amidst a very competitive field.

Huang says that he "believe[s] in Open AI", going even further to call their work "incredible." I don't know what Nvidia would get in return for this, but a trade deal as large as this would no doubt launch both company's stocks much higher. It is clear that Nvidia wants to remain a large factor in AI development and they are willing to pay to see the future of AI explode.

Article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/31/nvidia-ceo-huang-denies-hes-unhappy-with-openai.html

Gold and Silver Prices Fall as Investor Expectations Shift

    Gold and silver prices fell sharply following President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair. According to this article, the fall was caused by a strengthening U.S. dollar and shifting investor expectations. Since precious metals are considered a safe-haven asset, dramatic drops in their prices signals that investors perceive less risk. This highlights how expectations play a major role in business cycles. Investors appear to have taken the nomination as a sign that monetary policy will become more predictable, reducing the need to hold safe assets like gold and silver. 

    When interest rates are expected to rise, investors prefer assets like bonds that pay interest, instead of assets like gold that do not. Because of this, they move money into U.S. investments, that increasing demand strengthens the dollar. A stronger dollar often results in increased imports and decreased exports, which reduces net exports and slow GDP growth. 

ARTICLE: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/30/silver-gold-fall-price-usd-dollar-fed-warsh-chair-trump-metals.html

China and the UK are attempting to reset their relationship - Among a handful of other western nations

 The British Prime Minister took a 4 day visit to Beijing recently in hopes to create a strategic partnership with China for the future. It is the first visit to China in 8 years by a British Prime Minister. Other countries have done similar in recent months, Ireland visiting for the first time in 14 years and the Canadian Prime Minister visiting as well. 

In a recent age where the US seems to be geopolitically violent towards China and other nations, the United State's allies are teaming up with China. What could be the reason? Here is a quote from the article

"Nearly 60% of the more than 300 British firms surveyed said doing business in the country was harder than it was a year ago, the body said in a report in December."

British firms in China have been struggling recently and as China continues to grow in economic power it seems Great Britain is trying to get on their good side. 

This moves come after Britain's trade deficit with China ballooned by over 18% year on year to 42 billion pounds ($58.1 billion) in the 12 months ending June 2025, according to the U.K. government data.

With this move Britain is trying to hopefully close the gap from the trade deficits and make it easier for British businesses to sell to China.  

Key takeaways:

Whisky Tariffs: China agreed to cut tariffs on British whisky from 10% to 5%.

Visa-Free Travel: In a surprise move, China announced 30-day visa-free travel for British citizens—a huge win for business travelers trying to "close the gap."

How Mississippi could meet the needs of more than 19,000 families waiting for child care vouchers

    Mississippi is facing a child-care problem that is hitting working families hard. More than 20,000 children are stuck on a waitlist for vouchers that help parents afford childcare. This is a number that has expanded after the pandemic federal funding expired. The state also holds more than $150 million in unspent TANF (Temporary Assistance for Needy Families) welfare funds. This raises a huge question as to why so many families are waiting while so much money is being unused.

    State officials of the Mississippi Department of Human Services are exploring whether or not these dollars can be legally redirected into the childcare support system. Other states have already found ways to do this within federal regulations, and people believe Mississippi can join them. The agency has also brought up the idea of asking lawmakers for $60 million to stabilize the system, but this request didn't make it into the formal budget. This signals growing concerns and recognition that the current system is not working.

    For families, this money could be huge. Childcare consumes about 10% of a married couple's income and about 35% of a single parent's income. These are both considerably higher than the federal affordability benchmark, which is 7%. With the waitlist continuously growing and parents struggling to stay in the workforce, this could help the economy tremendously by strengthening this workforce, supporting families, and investing in its future. If leaders choose to act, Mississippi has a rare opportunity to use existing federal funds to help strengthen its childcare system and economy. 

https://apnews.com/article/government-programs-mark-jones-child-care-mississippi-general-news-00b0690ecc5e87b5d90b9fe908c9d26e