Businesses can claim refunds for Trump tariffs ruled unconstitutional starting Monday

 Businesses can start claiming refunds on Monday for tariffs imposed by Donald Trump that were later ruled unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court. The refund process, managed by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will roll out in phases and may take 60–90 days per claim, with potential delays due to technical and procedural issues.

Importers must submit detailed documentation, and not all tariffs qualify immediately. While businesses will receive the refunds, they are not required to pass the savings on to consumers, though some companies, like FedEx, say they plan to reimburse customers. Overall, the process is complex, requires accuracy, and may take time to fully deliver financial relief.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/19/trump-tariffs-business-refunds.html 

Iran War, Effects on China

 China’s economy continued to grow at around 5% GDP, even during the U.S.–Israel–Iran war. However, the war has had only a limited impact on China so far, rather than being a major reason for its growth. Instead, China’s recent economic growth has been driven largely by strong manufacturing and exports.

It is interesting to consider how China’s growth model differs from those of other countries. While China has a very large population and many rural areas, which can affect productivity, the more important issue right now is weak domestic consumption. Consumer spending has slowed, creating an imbalance in the economy as growth relies more on exports than internal demand.

The global situation has still created challenges. Economic uncertainty and inflation in many countries have slowed consumer spending worldwide, which can eventually affect China’s export demand. In addition, investment has been weaker, particularly in the property sector, which has been struggling for a longer period of time and continues to drag on economic growth.

Although global tensions can disrupt energy markets and business activity, these effects have not been the main drivers of China’s current economic performance. Instead, the key concern is whether China can sustain growth as its population declines and consumption remains weak, since these two factors are closely connected and important for long-term stability.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gxjpekk19o

AI and Cybersecurity

A new AI model created by Anthropic called Mythos shows how powerful AI is becoming in cybersecurity. It can find software weaknesses faster than humans, but it can also use those weaknesses to hack systems. In one case, the model even broke out of a controlled environment to reveal flaws on its own.

This is concerning because cyberattacks are already getting faster and more advanced. AI powered attacks increased significantly in the past year, and hackers can act within minutes of getting access. Many companies are not prepared to keep up, especially since they still rely on older security methods.

AI is also making hacking more accessible, meaning even less experienced people can carry out attacks. This gives attackers an advantage because it is easier to find and exploit weaknesses than to fix them. On the other hand, AI could help improve security by finding hidden problems in software and helping fix them. So while AI creates new risks, it could also make systems safer in the long run.

Overall, AI is making cybersecurity both more efficient and more dangerous, and companies will need to adapt quickly to keep up. 

https://www.ft.com/content/b9e79c53-9f14-4b7a-b250-d7a230ca8433?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Wholesale Prices Rose, But Not As Expected

    Producer prices rose in March, but not nearly as high as expected. The producer price index was expected to rise much higher than it did due to the war in Iran. It rose by about 0.5% for the month which is much lower than the Dow Jones consensus estimated (1.1% was the expected amount). Excluding food and energy core PPI only rose by about 0.1% which was significantly lower than expected (0.5% was the estimate). Despite this annually PPI rose 4% which is the highest it has been since 2023. 

    Energy seemed to be the driver of this increase due to the war. Gasoline prices rose 15.7%, diesel by 42%, and jet fuel by 30.7%. The war in Iran has severely impacted the energy sector and has caused prices to rise significantly.  However, because the "services" side of the economy stayed relatively flat it offset some of the effects that energy would have had on inflation. 

    It seems like the Fed is expecting to keep interest rates stable. The outlook is that inflation is on the path toward the 2% goal. The chances of a rate cut occurring seems low at a 25% chance of a cut occurring for the rest of the year. Overall, it seems like the market is remaining relatively calm. It has been noted that since the ceasefire was announced oil prices have already reduced by 15%, suggesting that April's numbers should show further stability.

Wholesale prices rose 0.5% in March, much less than expected despite war impact

Middle East oil production plunges due to Iran war, OPEC data shows

Oil production across major Gulf countries haas dropped sharply due to the ongoing Iran war, according to OPEC data. Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia all saw significant declines, largely because exports through the Strait of Hormuz have been disrupted by attacks and instability. Saudi Arabia also faced damage to a key pipeline, further limiting output. Overall, OPEC production fell by 27% in March. 

While Iran's production decreased slightly, it has continued exporting oil, though it now faces a U.S. naval blockade after failed negotiations. Experts say it could take several months for Gulf countries to restore production levels, and the supply disruption has pushed global oil prices back up to around $100 per barrel.

Middle East oil production plunges due to Iran war, OPEC data shows

Global Talks Begin Over Hormuz Blockade

    President Trump has begun working with leaders from China, India, and Iran to finally end the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The blockade has caused a massive shock to the oil market, due to the importance of the Strait of Hormuz. These talks are a necessary step to prevent oil prices from staying at these elevated levels or even increasing in the future.

    One of the main concerns is that if a resolution isn't found, the continued uncertainty will continue to push energy costs higher. Energy prices affect everything from manufacturing to shipping to household maintenance. With major economies like the US, China, and India involved, it shows just how much is at stake for international trade. If the blockade issue cannot be resolved, we might see a more long-term shift in how energy reserves are managed. Along with that we could see trade agreements to avoid these types of shocks in the future.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/13/trump-hormuz-blockade-oil-shock-china-iran-india-vessels-peace-talks.html

U.S. Moves to Shut Down Key Oil Route After Iran Negotiations Collapse

President Donald Trump announced that the United States will begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz after peace talks with Iran in Pakistan ended without an agreement. The talks failed largely due to disagreements over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its broader demands, including control of the strait and financial reparations. This new movement aims to stop Iran from controlling and profiting from the key oil route, which carries a large share of the world’s energy supply.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global oil route, carrying about one-fifth of the world’s supply. Its disruption has already strained global markets, driving oil prices above $100 per barrel at times and increasing economic uncertainty worldwide.

Iran responded by warning that increased U.S. military presence in the area would violate the current ceasefire and could trigger retaliation. Iranian officials also signaled that non-military ships can still pass under certain rules, while criticizing the potential economic consequences, including rising gas prices.

Although Trump claimed allies would help enforce the blockade, support remains unclear. The United Kingdom indicated it would not participate, emphasizing the importance of keeping the waterway open for global trade.

The escalating situation raises concerns about further economic instability and the possibility of broader conflict if tensions continue to rise.

Trump says U.S. will blockade Strait of Hormuz after Iran peace talks fail

More business openings than closings in Oregon in last decade, despite economic stigma

 The stigma around the Oregon economy for some time has been pretty negative, especially around the city of Portland. The main topic of discussion is that businesses are closing by the handful, and their downtown locations are sinking. But what I have learned after reading this article, it is clear that there are some major positives not being given enough attention. Starting with Oregon has had more business openings compared to closures for the most part of the last 10 years and a similar rate in 2023. This is able to happen due to their workforce having higher education, there is a lower bar compared to other states to establish a business, receive a tremendous amount of support from the colleges/banks, and their growing population. Though there is progress, it comes with some warnings because the number of business openings decreased a bit after 2024, and compared to big factories, small shops do not employ more people, causing the unemployment rate to increase. 

New CPI data, Economy awaits Fed decsion on rates.

CPI rose 3.3% which some say was less than expected considering the war in Iran. Major increases in oil prices was one of the main causes for this increase in March.  With the new numbers everyone will wait on the Fed's decision on what to do with interest rates. There is inlfation going on while growth is slowly in the economy which puts the Fed in a tricky situation. 

    The past couple of years prices have been increasing but wages for many people have not been keeping up which has led to a slowing of the economy. I expect the Fed to cut rates to try and stimulate come growth but that will ultimately lead to higher rates of inflation. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2026/04/10/march-inflation-report-cpi--live/89503290007/

When the Rupee Sneezes, the Dollar Feels It

On March 30, 2026, the rupee crossed 95 per U.S. dollar for the first time in history. In three weeks, it lost 4% of its value. Brent crude surpassed $110 a barrel following escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States.

India imports 85% of its crude oil. Every $10 rise in oil prices adds roughly $15 billion to India's annual import bill. That bill is paid in dollars, which increases dollar demand and weakens the rupee directly.

Foreign investors pulled billions from Indian equities and bonds during the same period. Global capital moved into U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset. The dollar strengthened as a result, putting additional downward pressure on the rupee.

The U.S. and India had announced a trade framework weeks earlier. The agreement cut average U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to approximately 18%. A rupee at 95 versus 85 increases the rupee cost of Indian purchases of American goods by roughly 12%, partially offsetting the tariff reduction.

India's central bank intervened in foreign exchange markets using its reserve stockpile. It also imposed limits on banks' open dollar positions to reduce speculative pressure. The rupee rebounded temporarily following these measures.

India runs a persistent current account deficit, driven largely by its oil import bill. The country relies on foreign capital inflows to finance a portion of its growth. Both factors increase India's structural vulnerability to dollar strengthening and commodity price shocks.

The Reserve Bank of India held foreign exchange reserves of approximately $640 billion entering March 2026. Intervention draws down those reserves without addressing the underlying trade and capital flow dynamics. Reserve depletion itself can trigger further loss of investor confidence if sustained.

A weaker rupee makes Indian exports cheaper in dollar terms. India supplies roughly 40% of U.S. generic drug imports. Dollar strengthening therefore has direct implications for U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain costs.