Private Credit Fund Underperformance Suggests Potential Stock Market Volatility

Markets have had substantial concerns about the stability and security of private credit funds in recent months. 

Private credit funds are non-bank lenders that lend directly to companies, promising high rates of return to their investors and flexibility for their borrowers. 

Following several major private credit loans that have recently gone into default, markets have begun to question whether private credit firms are wisely allocating their capital. Details on private credit loans are often opaque, and if private credit firms begin experiencing extreme credit losses, their troubles can flow up to banks, as they often borrow from banks themselves, which can destabilize the larger financial system.

The State Street SPDR Blackstone Senior Loan ETF is currently down 4% YTD and is considered a bellwether for the overall performance of the stock market, because the fund has broad exposure to loans across many industries, company sizes, and investment grades, and if its borrowers underperform, the effect will trickle out to the rest of the economy, as described before. The fund often drops below its 200-day moving average before major corrections of the S&P500, and is currently trading 4.87% below the moving average, suggesting potential volatility in the wider stock market in the coming weeks.

Source: https://www.barrons.com/articles/private-credit-stocks-senior-loan-etf-27d5eee5?siteid=yhoof2 

Top earners are more afraid for their employment because of AI

In late February 2026, a new trend emerged in the U.S. labor market: higher-income workers are now expressing more fear about losing their jobs to artificial intelligence than lower-income workers, reversing the traditional employment anxiety patterns. According to recent surveys, confidence in the labor market among top earners has fallen to levels that have not seen since the late 1970s, with many pointing out the rise of AI as a key factor. 

Data from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers shows that sentiment about future job prospects has deteriorated most sharply among the top third of earners, while lower-income workers reported relatively higher labor confidence. Similarly, the New York Federal Reserve’s monthly survey indicates that expectations of finding new employment within three months if displaced are near record lows for higher-income workers. 

Additionally, payroll processing firm ADP reports that turnover rates in traditionally white-collar occupations have plummeted to historic lows, suggesting that many higher-income professionals are choosing to stay in their current roles amid fears of AI-driven disruption. Despite these concerns, unemployment remains relatively low in high-skill sectors such as finance, indicating that the job market is still strong even as anxiety rises. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/25/top-earners-are-more-afraid-for-their-employment-than-lower-income-as-ai-threat-increases.html

How the Iran War Is Affecting the World Economy

 

How the Iran War Is Affecting the World Economy

The recent war involving Iran has already started to affect the global economy in big ways. One of the biggest impacts is on oil prices. Because Iran and other countries in the Middle East produce a lot of oil, fighting there makes traders nervous and pushes prices up. Right now, oil has jumped almost 8–10% and could go even higher if shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz get blocked longer. Higher oil prices make everything that uses fuel more expensive, which can cause inflation in many countries. 

Stock markets have also dropped because investors are worried about the future. When war scares people, they often sell stocks and buy “safe” things like gold. This kind of volatility can slow economic growth because companies and consumers spend less when they’re uncertain. 

Inside Iran, the economy was already struggling before this war from sanctions and inflation, and now conflict just makes it worse by disrupting trade and energy sales. That could mean slower growth and tougher living conditions for regular people. 

Overall, the war is showing how connected today’s world economy is, a conflict in one region affects prices, markets, and growth almost everywhere.

Sources: The Guardian, Bloomberg, ing.com

Jamie Dimon says AI euphoria, record stocks and banks doing 'dumb things' could lead to another financial crisis.

 Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, says that with our current financial situation and banks doing "dumb things" like taking on risky loans that could put the US in a similar market situation to how it was before the financial crisis of 2008. He said to investors that the conditions of the market, including the record levels, could be a cause for concern. He sights that he saw this same trend from 2005-2007, where everyone was making a lot of money and the sky was the limit just for it to crash back down. Dimon says that the recent concerns among investors about AI disrupting the software sector is a typical disruption in the past financial markets. He cited some previous "stable bets" such as newspapers and utility/phone companies that developed some problems, and said that this time it may be the software sector due to AI causing the industry to be challenged. 

https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/24/economy/jamie-dimon-warning 

Greenland’s Hidden Wealth: Treasure or Myth?

In an episode of The Indicator from Planet Money by NPR, hosts Darian Woods and Wailin Wong explore whether Greenland is truly an untapped land of riches by telling the story of geologist Greg Barnes, who discovered a large rare-earth mineral deposit that could help countries like the United States reduce reliance on China for critical materials used in technology and clean energy; this strategic importance even sparked political interest, including talk from Donald Trump about acquiring Greenland. However, the podcast explains that valuable minerals underground don’t automatically mean easy profits, because Greenland faces huge obstacles like extreme weather, limited roads and energy, environmental risks, and local opposition to mining projects, all of which make extraction expensive and slow. While Barnes’s project may eventually produce rare earth elements, experts say Greenland’s geology alone doesn’t guarantee economic success, showing that the idea of Greenland as a simple treasure trove is more myth than reality.

https://www.npr.org/transcripts/nx-s1-5683139

Are big companies staying private too long, and does that matter for the macroeconomy?

Are big companies staying private too long, and how does that affect the macroeconomy?

The question of whether firms are “staying private too long” goes beyond corporate governance, it is dependent on where capital formation occurs, who captures the returns, and how those choices shape the level and volatility of national income over the business cycle.

Typically, firms grow, then go public to raise capital, diversify ownership, and fund investment. Public equity markets are where household savings meet firm investment, and movements in those markets feed directly into national income, productivity, and the business cycle.

In practice, a growing share of this process now happens in private markets. Large, mature firms can raise substantial amounts of capital without listing. They rely on private equity, venture capital, sovereign wealth funds, and private credit. As a result, more capital formation and value creation occurs before any IPO, in venues that are less transparent and accessible to typical households.

This has three important macro channels.

The first is capital formation. Access to deep private capital allows firms to invest in long horizon projects with less pressure to meet quarterly earnings targets. Disclosure requirements are lighter and financing terms are more flexible, which can support higher and more patient investment in both physical and intangible capital. At the aggregate level, this can raise investment and the capital stock and support higher trend output. The open question is whether the opacity of private markets leads to efficient allocation of this capital or to misallocation that does not show up until later in the cycle.

The second channel is distributional. Participation in private markets is concentrated among institutions and high net worth investors. When the highest growth phase of a firm’s life happens while it is still private, most of the capital gains accrue to a relatively narrow segment of the population. By the time the firm reaches public markets, much of the explosive upside may already be realized. This reinforces wealth and income inequality and changes the path of aggregate consumption, since high wealth households have lower marginal propensities to consume and different portfolio choices than the median household.

The third channel is business cycle dynamics. Private capital can stabilize or amplify shocks. In expansions, abundant private funding can smooth temporary earnings declines and maintain investment when public markets might react sharply. In downturns, the same illiquidity and opacity can become a liability. A synchronized pullback by private investors can trigger a rapid contraction in funding for investment that is not immediately visible in public prices but still transmits to output, employment, and measured GDP.

Are Jack Dorsey’s aggressive job cuts the start of an AI jobs apocalypse? Economists weigh in (CNBC)

 A recent Are Jack Dorsey’s aggressive job cuts the start of an AI jobs apocalypse? Economists weigh in (CNBC)-themed discussion has reignited a broader debate about how artificial intelligence is reshaping work in the tech world. At the center of it is Block Inc., the fintech company led by CEO Jack Dorsey, which announced cuts of roughly 4,000 positions  almost half its workforce as part of a shift toward AI-driven operations rather than financial distress. Dorsey framed this move as proactive adaptation to a future where “intelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company,” a message echoed in the strong market reaction, with Block’s shares jumping sharply on the news.

Economists and industry observers are split on what this means for the broader job market. Some see Dorsey’s decision as one of the first high-profile instances of a major company explicitly attributing layoffs to AI efficiencies a potential harbinger of wider structural shifts in employment. Others caution that such rhetoric can sometimes mask traditional cost-cutting, or that technology historically both displaces and creates jobs in new areas. What’s clear is that the conversation about AI’s long-term impact on jobs whether it signals a looming “jobs apocalypse” or a transformative transition is only getting louder.

Venezuela’s Capital, Laid Low by Misrule, Is Stirring Back to Life

 It is heartbreaking to see how Caracas continues to struggle with such extreme economic inequality. While some areas show signs of recovery through dollarization, the reality for most people is still a constant battle against inflation and basic costs. It’s a stark reminder of how much global politics and shifting sanctions directly impact the daily lives of families just trying to get by.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/26/world/americas/caracas-venezuela-economy.html

What will happen to gas prices with the strike on Iran

 Gas prices rising in recent days show how closely global energy markets are tied to politics around the world. Especially after President Trump decided to launch military strikes against Iran. According to reporting by USA Today, the attacks have increased uncertainty in oil markets, and investors fear potential disruptions in the Middle East. The Middle East is crucial to the global Oil supply and shipping routes. Even without an immediate interruption, the higher risk alone has pushed crude oil prices upward, and those increases tend to flow directly to consumers, resulting in higher gas prices. As a result of the bombings, Americans may end up seeing an increase in gas prices in the coming weeks. 

Will US attacks on Iran drive up gas prices? Here's what we know.

FIFA Raises Prize Money for 2026 World Cup as Soccer Revenue Grows

 FIFA has increased the prize money for the FIFA World Cup 2026. The total prize pool will be about $655 million, and the winning team could earn around $50 million, the highest ever. The 2026 tournament will be hosted mainly in the United States, along with Canada and Mexico. The tournament is expected to generate more than $10 billion in revenue across host nations, driving massive spending on infrastructure, tourism, and media rights and offering a big financial boost to local economies and national associations.  

 However, some teams and economists warn that rising costs and travel demands might outweigh gains for smaller football associations, showing that bigger prize pools don’t automatically mean more profit for all.  

https://www.reuters.com/article/soccer-worldcup-prizemoney-2026-idUSL1N3C22XY