The Fed, Frozen

Based on recent economic trends, many people are guessing the Fed will not cut interest rates anymore. However, some people warn that this assumption may be inaccurate. The war with Iran has increased oil prices, and people fear this conflict will cause an increase in inflation. But it seems likely that this war could end fairly soon. If this does occur and prices sink back to the same level as before the war, the Fed could resume the interest rate cuts that people expected before the conflict. The Chief Economist at Oxford Economics said that he believed the Fed would wait and see how the war progresses, but he still expects interest rate cuts before the end of the year. The short-term inflation expectations are fairly high, but the long-term expectations are lower. This once more supports the idea that when the war with Iran ends, the economy will resume to where it left off before the conflict.  

Another reason it seems likely the Fed would want to cut interest rates is that the country seems to be entering a phase of slow economic growth. In order to help stimulate growth and decrease unemployment, interest rates could be cut. Overall, it seems the Fed is currently just playing a waiting game, frozen until the war is resolved. Most people suspect the war will conclude soon, and then it seems likely that interest rate cuts will resume as well. 

https://www.investopedia.com/here-are-the-reasons-why-fed-rate-cuts-are-still-possible-11951320

We spoke to over 30 central bankers, policymakers and politicians. Here are their top concerns

 The war is drawn out at this point which leaves things uncertain. Policymakers think the biggest problem is not just the war but also there is no clear end and peace talks are uncertain. Uncertainty reduces investment and consumption. Higher energy prices go into global inflation. In the end slower global demand means there is weaker growth. Many officials are now worried about Stagflation which is high inflation with low economic growth. They say energy shocks push inflation up; uncertainty and higher cots push growth down. Some estimate that the inflation could rise to 2.5%, if these stays rising stagflation could occur.

Energy security is the main channel of impact. The biggest transmission mechanism is oil and flows which is through the strait of Hormuz. This is important because large share of oil passes through it. The risks that are brough up is the supply disruptions, shipping delays, and oil price spikes. These all have a impact with the global price shock.

Central bankers, politicians warn of global risks as Iran war drags on

Rising Recession Expectations

    Lately, there has been an increase in concern about a possible recession. What’s interesting is that expectations alone can influence economic behavior. When businesses think a slowdown is coming, they may cut back on hiring or delay investments. At the same time, consumers may spend less and save more if they’re worried about job security. This can actually slow the economy before a recession even begins.

    This connects closely to business cycles, since changes in confidence can push the economy from expansion toward contraction. Overall, rising recession expectations highlights that confidence in the economy is crucial. Even without a clear downturn yet, the shift in outlook alone can start to shape real economic activity.

Retirees leaving earlier than expected

For most Americans retiring is the ultimate goal. It's the reason you work so hard and for so long, so you can kick back and relax when you're older. One thing is clear; the longer you work, the more benefits you'll get once retired. But many Americans are being forced to retire early for reasons that they can't control. 76% of early retirements happened due to factors out of individual control.

One large problem with the "working longer means better retirement" strategy is that there's no guarantee that you'll even be able to work longer. Health problems build, layoffs happen, and overall unpredictable events occur more than anticipated. Even with the health care system being stronger than ever, costs for that take away from building for retirement.

One of the most important things people can do is having a backup plan and getting debt out of the way early. The last thing anyone wants is to retire and still have to make payments on outstanding debt. Long-term insurance also provides a nice safety net in the event of emergencies, which inevitably happen.

Waiting until age 70 is the best case scenario. At this age social security benefits are maximized. Waiting until 66-67 is a minimum to obtain full retirement benefits. With people leaving the workforce earlier than expected, the labor participation rate may seem artificially lower than expected. It's important that Americans are trying to stay in the workforce as long as possible for their own benefit and the benefit of the economy as a whole.

Article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/28/early-retirement.html

Artificial Intelligence

 The rise of artificial intelligence is starting to have a real impact on jobs and the overall economy. Companies like Microsoft and Google are investing heavily in AI, which is helping boost productivity but also raising concerns about job loss in certain industries. Some businesses are already using AI to replace routine tasks, especially in customer service and data entry roles. At the same time, new jobs are being created in tech and AI development, so it’s not all negative. According to recent reporting from Reuters, economists believe AI could significantly increase global economic output over the next decade.  Still, there’s a lot of uncertainty about how fast these changes will happen and who will benefit the most. Overall, AI is shaping up to be one of the biggest economic shifts happening right now, and people are still trying to figure out what it really means for the future.

 reuters.com

 

Spring housing market stalls as war, high mortgage rates keep buyers sidelined

As a college student about to graduate next year, the current housing market is making me anxious. Rising mortgage rates and economic uncertainty aren’t just headlines, they’re shaping the world I’m going to be entering in the foreseeable future. If the job market slows down or wages don’t keep up, it could make it even harder to build financial stability early on.

Looking ahead 10 years, it’s hard not to feel concerned about affordability. Home prices are still high, and even small changes in interest rates can make a big difference in what people can afford. If these trends continue, buying a home might feel further out of reach for my generation.

At the same time, it’s a reminder that long-term planning matters. Saving early, staying flexible, and being realistic about financial goals may be more important than ever. While the future is uncertain, understanding these trends now helps me prepare for what’s ahead. As well as understanding that things change all the time. There is plenty of time for the housing market to die down. On the flip side, the job market is getting harder and harder. Time will tell how my generation will be able to handle economic adversity.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/16/economy/us-mortgage-rates-spring-housing-market

Why markets remained calm after the Trump–Iran ceasefire extension

The extension of the ceasefire between Donald Trump and Iran did not cause much movement in financial markets, with stock prices and oil prices staying mostly the same. This is because investors had already expected the ceasefire to continue, so the news did not provide any new information. Financial markets usually react more to unexpected events, and since this announcement kept conditions stable, there was little reason for the prices to change. Right now, investors are also paying more attention to factors like inflation, interest rates, and overall economic growth, which have a bigger impact on the market than ongoing geopolitical situations.

Another reason for the limited reaction is the stability of oil supply. The Middle East is an important region for global energy, but the continued ceasefire reduces the risk of disruptions. Since there was no increase in conflict, expectations about oil supply stayed the same which kept the prices steady. Overall, this shows that markets respond to changes in expectations and in this case, the situation remained largely unchanged.

 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/22/markets-shrug-at-trumps-iran-ceasefire-extension.html

How Tariff Refunds Could Impact Retailers and the Economy

How Tariff Refunds Could Impact Retailers and the Economy

A recent Supreme Court decision ruling Trump-era tariffs unlawful could lead to major refunds for U.S. retailers, with companies like Walmart and Target potentially receiving billions back. According to estimates cited in the article, Walmart could receive up to $10.2 billion in refunds, while Target may receive $2.2 billion. These refunds matter economically because tariffs had acted like an extra cost on imports, raising expenses for retailers and often contributing to higher consumer prices. If these companies recover those funds, it could improve their balance sheets, help pay debt, buy back stocks, or even create room for lower prices or new investment.

The story also highlights how tariffs can affect consumers through inflation. A study from Harvard Business School found tariff "pass-through" added to the Consumer Price Index, showing businesses often shifted some of those costs onto consumers. That creates an interesting economic question: if companies are refunded after consumers already paid higher prices, who really benefits? Some legal experts even raised concerns that companies could face lawsuits over that issue. It shows how trade policy can have long-term ripple effects beyond just government revenue, influencing prices, corporate profits, and consumer welfare.

What I found especially interesting is how uncertain the refund process still is. Even though the tariffs were ruled illegal, analysts and trade lawyers expect bureaucratic delays, and the administration is already considering new Section 301 tariffs that could replace some of the old ones. It shows how trade policy can create instability for businesses, even when courts intervene. Usually, tariffs feel like a broad policy issue removed from everyday life, but this makes it easier to see how they affect prices we pay at stores and even the financial health of major retailers. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/20/tariff-refunds-begin-on-monday-these-retailers-are-due-big-paydays.html 

Markets Stay Calm Despite Iran Ceasefire Extension

Markets showed little reaction after Donald Trump extended the Iran ceasefire, suggesting investors believe tensions are easing. Stocks have remained steady, with many thinking the worst of the conflict may already be over.

However, risks still exist. Oil prices remain high due to disruptions in key shipping routes, and recent incidents show the situation is still fragile.

Overall, markets appear optimistic but cautious as they wait to see what happens next.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/22/markets-shrug-at-trumps-iran-ceasefire-extension.html

How conflict in the Middle East is effecting Airline Ticket Prices

    Recent conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher, and the airlines are already feeling the effects. According to Reuters, jet fuel prices have jumped from about $85-90 per barrel to as high as $150-200 per barrel after the escalation of the war. Since fuel makes up roughly 20% to 40% of airline operating costs, increases like this quickly force airlines to adjust pricing. Several carriers have already warned that ticket prices could rise around 15–20% as they try to manage higher fuel expenses.

Higher oil prices matter beyond just airlines because they directly affect the cost of global travel. When flights become more expensive, tourism demand can slow and international business travel can become less frequent. This creates ripple effects across industries like hospitality, transportation, and global trade that depend on consistent travel activity.

This situation is a good example of how geopolitical events move through commodity markets and into everyday economic activity. A shock to oil supply increases fuel costs, which then raises airline prices and impacts consumers. Usually when we talk about macroeconomic trends, I don’t personally notice the effects right away. But recently I had to buy a flight and was shocked how expensive tickets have become, which was interesting to see how something like higher oil prices from geopolitical conflict can directly impact everyday decisions like travel.

Source: 

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/price-hikes-outlook-cuts-what-airlines-are-doing-fuel-costs-surge-2026-04-23/