USA Rare Earth buys rare eath metals from South American country

 USA Rare Earth announced a $2.8 billion deal to buy the Brazilian mining company, Serra Verde. The payment will include both cash and stock, and the company expects the deal to be finalized by the third quarter of 2026 if it gets the required approvals. This move is mainly about reducing reliance on China, which currently controls most of the global supply and refining of rare earth elements. These materials are extremely important because they are used in things like electric vehicles, smartphones, and even military equipment, making them a big part of global competition.

By acquiring Serra Verde, USA Rare Earth would gain access to important elements like neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium, which are all needed to make high performance magnets. The deal also includes a long term agreement supported by U.S. government related groups, showing how serious the issue is for national security. Experts say rare earths are becoming more important as countries try to secure energy and technology advantages, especially as demand increases with the shift toward clean energy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/20/usa-rare-earth-serra-verde-minerals-china.html 

Here are all the ways the Iran war has affected the U.S. economy so far

     Th conflict that has been occurring in Iran has been affecting the US economy mostly by driving up the oil and gas prices. This is causing higher inflation especially with gas prices making everyday lives mire expensive. The overall economy hasn't taken a massive hit but if conflict continues to happen it could get worse. If these prices continue to go up PPI with increase which then will most likely increase CPI with will be bad for all of us. The FED Reserve is watching this conflict closely and if inflation stays high, it might delay cutting intrest rates which is going to make borrowing cost for things like homes and loans higher. Overall our economy is still staying pretty calm but If tension continues or gets worse we could have some serious problems coming in the near future. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/here-are-all-the-ways-the-iran-war-has-affected-the-us-economy-so-far.html

Fed Chair Nomination Becomes a Macro Event: Why Markets Care About Independence

The economic decisions front is not a data print; it is leadership and independence at the Fed. Kevin Warsh, nominated by President Trump for the Fed Chair, finds himself in the middle of a Senate confirmation process that is already impacting investor expectations for monetary policy. On an operational note, when there is fear of Fed Chairman appointment being political, inflation expectations will increase, rates and yields can rise, even without Fed hikes, as bond markets price that possibility.

It is important because the Fed’s mandate has both a technical and a credibility aspect. Weakening of the latter can be reflected in terms of higher funding costs, stronger US currency and greater volatility in stock and credit markets. This creates problems for the central bank’s reaction function – pre-emptive cuts can lead to a resurgence of inflation expectations, whereas overly restrictive policy creates risks of a recession. A politically contentious confirmation process adds to uncertainty when the economy is exposed to energy and supply side factors.

1) https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/fed-chief-nominee-warsh-pledges-new-divestment-updated-financial-filing-2026-04-20/

2) https://nypost.com/2026/04/20/business/fed-nominee-kevin-warsh-to-face-senate-grilling-over-independence-interest-rates/

Russia choosing war over welfare for how much longer

A rural town in northern Russia called Nikolsk is facing unprecedented cuts to its education system, with a decision to end upper-grade classes currently in the works. This reflects a broader, devastating trend: since 2000, Russia has lost almost 24,000 schools. As these schools close, the small settlements fighting to stay alive often disappear right along with them. Instead of supporting these communities, government officials have redirected spending toward their ongoing, so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine. This lack of support is especially frustrating for Nikolsk. The town has a couple of surviving businesses, including farms and a dairy plant, and has actually seen its population grow slightly, by about 100 residents, over the past 15 years. With even more development planned outside of town, government support for local schools is absolutely imperative for the survival of Russia's rural communities. Compounding the issue is a recent policy shift. Just last year, the Kremlin removed local self-governance, stripping villages of the ability to pass proposals that matter to their own residents. Moscow seems to be on a power trip, refusing to take any suggestions from locals even when holding town hall meetings. However, since April 9th, there have been hearings to challenge this decision.

Will Russia really continue to pull funding from its own schools just to fuel its ongoing conflict in Ukraine? Or are these local pressures the tipping point of the financial hardships Moscow is currently facing?

As Russia looks to slash budgets, a village fights to survive

Businesses can claim refunds for Trump tariffs ruled unconstitutional starting Monday

 Businesses can start claiming refunds on Monday for tariffs imposed by Donald Trump that were later ruled unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court. The refund process, managed by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will roll out in phases and may take 60–90 days per claim, with potential delays due to technical and procedural issues.

Importers must submit detailed documentation, and not all tariffs qualify immediately. While businesses will receive the refunds, they are not required to pass the savings on to consumers, though some companies, like FedEx, say they plan to reimburse customers. Overall, the process is complex, requires accuracy, and may take time to fully deliver financial relief.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/19/trump-tariffs-business-refunds.html 

Iran War, Effects on China

 China’s economy continued to grow at around 5% GDP, even during the U.S.–Israel–Iran war. However, the war has had only a limited impact on China so far, rather than being a major reason for its growth. Instead, China’s recent economic growth has been driven largely by strong manufacturing and exports.

It is interesting to consider how China’s growth model differs from those of other countries. While China has a very large population and many rural areas, which can affect productivity, the more important issue right now is weak domestic consumption. Consumer spending has slowed, creating an imbalance in the economy as growth relies more on exports than internal demand.

The global situation has still created challenges. Economic uncertainty and inflation in many countries have slowed consumer spending worldwide, which can eventually affect China’s export demand. In addition, investment has been weaker, particularly in the property sector, which has been struggling for a longer period of time and continues to drag on economic growth.

Although global tensions can disrupt energy markets and business activity, these effects have not been the main drivers of China’s current economic performance. Instead, the key concern is whether China can sustain growth as its population declines and consumption remains weak, since these two factors are closely connected and important for long-term stability.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gxjpekk19o

AI and Cybersecurity

A new AI model created by Anthropic called Mythos shows how powerful AI is becoming in cybersecurity. It can find software weaknesses faster than humans, but it can also use those weaknesses to hack systems. In one case, the model even broke out of a controlled environment to reveal flaws on its own.

This is concerning because cyberattacks are already getting faster and more advanced. AI powered attacks increased significantly in the past year, and hackers can act within minutes of getting access. Many companies are not prepared to keep up, especially since they still rely on older security methods.

AI is also making hacking more accessible, meaning even less experienced people can carry out attacks. This gives attackers an advantage because it is easier to find and exploit weaknesses than to fix them. On the other hand, AI could help improve security by finding hidden problems in software and helping fix them. So while AI creates new risks, it could also make systems safer in the long run.

Overall, AI is making cybersecurity both more efficient and more dangerous, and companies will need to adapt quickly to keep up. 

https://www.ft.com/content/b9e79c53-9f14-4b7a-b250-d7a230ca8433?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Wholesale Prices Rose, But Not As Expected

    Producer prices rose in March, but not nearly as high as expected. The producer price index was expected to rise much higher than it did due to the war in Iran. It rose by about 0.5% for the month which is much lower than the Dow Jones consensus estimated (1.1% was the expected amount). Excluding food and energy core PPI only rose by about 0.1% which was significantly lower than expected (0.5% was the estimate). Despite this annually PPI rose 4% which is the highest it has been since 2023. 

    Energy seemed to be the driver of this increase due to the war. Gasoline prices rose 15.7%, diesel by 42%, and jet fuel by 30.7%. The war in Iran has severely impacted the energy sector and has caused prices to rise significantly.  However, because the "services" side of the economy stayed relatively flat it offset some of the effects that energy would have had on inflation. 

    It seems like the Fed is expecting to keep interest rates stable. The outlook is that inflation is on the path toward the 2% goal. The chances of a rate cut occurring seems low at a 25% chance of a cut occurring for the rest of the year. Overall, it seems like the market is remaining relatively calm. It has been noted that since the ceasefire was announced oil prices have already reduced by 15%, suggesting that April's numbers should show further stability.

Wholesale prices rose 0.5% in March, much less than expected despite war impact

Middle East oil production plunges due to Iran war, OPEC data shows

Oil production across major Gulf countries haas dropped sharply due to the ongoing Iran war, according to OPEC data. Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia all saw significant declines, largely because exports through the Strait of Hormuz have been disrupted by attacks and instability. Saudi Arabia also faced damage to a key pipeline, further limiting output. Overall, OPEC production fell by 27% in March. 

While Iran's production decreased slightly, it has continued exporting oil, though it now faces a U.S. naval blockade after failed negotiations. Experts say it could take several months for Gulf countries to restore production levels, and the supply disruption has pushed global oil prices back up to around $100 per barrel.

Middle East oil production plunges due to Iran war, OPEC data shows

Global Talks Begin Over Hormuz Blockade

    President Trump has begun working with leaders from China, India, and Iran to finally end the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The blockade has caused a massive shock to the oil market, due to the importance of the Strait of Hormuz. These talks are a necessary step to prevent oil prices from staying at these elevated levels or even increasing in the future.

    One of the main concerns is that if a resolution isn't found, the continued uncertainty will continue to push energy costs higher. Energy prices affect everything from manufacturing to shipping to household maintenance. With major economies like the US, China, and India involved, it shows just how much is at stake for international trade. If the blockade issue cannot be resolved, we might see a more long-term shift in how energy reserves are managed. Along with that we could see trade agreements to avoid these types of shocks in the future.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/13/trump-hormuz-blockade-oil-shock-china-iran-india-vessels-peace-talks.html