ANALYSIS, COMMENTS, THOUGHTS, AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS IN DR. SKOSPLES' NATIONAL INCOME AND BUSINESS CYCLES COURSE AT OHIO WESLEYAN UNIVERSITY
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Tax cuts...are they worth it?
No Jobs? Young Graduates Make Their Own
The article features a few success stories about how college graduates started out their business ventures. It also includes a few tips and resources for those who are seriously thinking of boosting the economy by becoming entrepreneurs.
Taxes, benefits and the deficit: Kicking down the can down the road
Obama to meet with CEOs in Blair House session
Are Americans as Poor as they feel?
Senator Bernie Sanders Speaks Against Tax Cuts for over 8 Hours
U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed in October
Steven Blitz, a senior economist for ITG Investment Research, said:"Building a recovery around export growth and the capital investment needed to bolster that sector is necessary for the U.S. economy to have a well-balanced and sustainable growth path."
The increase in American exports in October reflected a rise in sales of a variety of goods abroad. And exports swelled to record highs with two important U.S. trading partners -- Mexico and China.
"The United States is always looking to balance the consumer goods that we import from Asia with commodities that we can export to them," Mr. Blitz said.
The Seven-Year Recessionary Itch
Will rising mortgage rates spur home sales?
Madoff son found dead in NYC in apparent suicide
Top 10 States People are Fleeing
Trade Deficit Falls with Increased Demand for U.S. Goods
With the U.S. dollar failing, demand for American goods is on the rise and exports were at their highest level since August 2008 as of October. Exports rose 3.2 percent to $158.7 billion with purchases of American-made machinery, farm products and cars leading the way and the U.S. trade deficit fell to $38.7 billion, 13.2 percent below the deficit in September ($44.6 billion). The rise in exports is expected to boost economic growth in U.S. export markets and help with the Obama administration’s goal of doubling U.S. exports to combat high unemployment rates. However, the trade deficit with China continues to grow as China keeps the Yuan considerably undervalued against the dollar. This unfair trade practice, as critics call it, is making it cheap to buy Chinese products meanwhile increasing the price of U.S. goods in China. Overall, the U.S. trade deficit is at an annual rate of $504.8 billion up from $374.9 billion dollars in 2009, but economists expected the increase would happen as U.S. economy recovered. It is their hope that with a decline in the dollar, global demand for U.S. goods will make exports competitive and offset some of the increase in imports.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Bill Clinton: Tax deal the best we can reach
Limiting Bonuses
Only 20-30% of bonuses can be paid in upfront cash, according to new guidelines announced by the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS).
The rules are much tougher than those agreed by the G20 countries, raising fears that bankers may emigrate to more lightly regulated countries."
However...
"Some European banks have warned that the rules create an added incentive for their employees to relocate to Asian cities such as Singapore that have looser bonus rules, as well as lower tax rates and access to Asia's booming economies."
Looks like some loopholes need to filed.
Trade deficits narrows to 9-month low in October
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The U.S. trade deficit fell to its lowest level in nine months, as growing demand for American goods overseas and a falling dollar pushed exports to their highest level in more than two years.
The trade deficit narrowed to $38.7 billion in October, the Commerce Department reported Friday. The figure was 13.2 percent below September's deficit of $44.6 billion...
Remember in class about an open economy? Well, according to the article, the U.S. exports rose roughly 3.2% and the imports dipped .5% in October. This would indicate that we have a lower exchange rate in terms of currency towards other nations, which is why the exports rose more than the imports. Could this be the beginning phase to balance the trade but at the same time, devaluing our dollar?
$860 billion tax-cut deal: Cost breakdown
Home values tumble $1.7 trillion in 2010
Oil demand rises on global economic recovery, says IEA
This increased consumption and predicted consumption has raised oil prices. The IEA report said that although the economy seems to be on the downside, the demand for oil is still increasing. This is because of the increase in the world demand for oil.
Furthermore, the OPEC is meant to meet soon to discuss quotas but analysts believe output will remain the same. Next year however the article says that OPEC will be pressured into increasing supply to meet demands.
Where do you think this increased demand is coming from if other articles comment on low consumer confidence and high unemployment rates?
US trade deficit narrows unexpectedly
Even though this is the case, the future for the trade deficit looks poor. It is expected to rise to $500bn for the year from $346bn in 2009.
Beware $90 oil
Moreover, analysts predict that the commodity will hit $100 a barrel sometime next year as demand rises from China and other emerging economies. But various factors might send prices down as well, as the spread of Europe's debt crisis could strengthen the U.S. dollar and send prices for the dollar-denominate commodity downward.
Fed critic to take reins of House oversight panel
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Chase Responds to Lehman Suit
Chase of "illegally siphoning $8.6 billion in collateral four business days before" Lehman's bankruptcy. But only few days ago, JPMorgan counter-sued Lehman Brothers stating Lehman committed fraud and left JPMorgan in more than $25 billion of unpaid loans which were backed by Lehman's most toxic securities.
According to the JPMorgan's statement, Lehman was provided with more than $70 billion on Sep 18, 2008 on the basis that Lehman will repay it back after it (Lehman) gets bought by Barclays Bank. JPMorgan further states that Barclays did not buy all of Lehman's debt that Lehman had guaranteed. Also, JPMorgan's countersuit includes higher Lehman executives which it accuses of accepting lucrative job offers at Barclays in return for allowing Barclays to "cherry-pick" the securities to be bought. A trial is not expected to start until 2012 and JPMorgan "is seeking unspecified damages".
Unemployment still a problem
Germany's Inflated
In September and October, the inflation rate had been 1.3%, according to the official figures from Destatis.
Despite the rise in prices, inflation remains below the 2% threshold the statistics agency sees as representing an unhealthy rise in prices."
"With food and energy taken out of the calculation, inflation would have stood at 0.9%, it added.
Germany is currently the growth-engine in Europe, experiencing strong expansion when many of its neighbours' economies are struggling to recover from the downturn."
Hopefully Germany can help Europe out of the economic stagnation.
What's hot for 2011: Mortgage-backed Securities?
It seems like only yesterday that virtually everyone thought mortgage-backed securities were evil. After all, the securities – backed by mortgages including subprime home loans – helped put the country's largest banks on the brink and the global economy into a dizzying downward spiral after the housing bust started.
In the years leading up to the financial crisis, as credit boomed in tandem with home sales, Wall Street shored up on mortgage-backed securities. At the time, at least, it was almost easy to see the appeal of betting on securities whose values depended on mortgage payments and housing prices. But when things went awry, these securities were akin to the plague – not just for Wall Street who reported big losses, but the folks on Main Street who linked the complex financial instruments with their economic woes.
It's true things are looking better today relative to what they did then, when Lehman Brothers went under and Bank of America (BAC) swept up Merrill Lynch in a panic. But the housing market isn't exactly rebounding, and the rate of foreclosures hasn't improved much. The latest Case Schiller Index reported that home prices nationwide declined 2% during the three months ending in September, after having risen 2.4% during the previous quarter. According to Zillow, home prices have lost $1.7 trillion in value in the past year.
Despite the gloom, a modest bright spot linked to housing is emerging on Wall Street. In its 2011 outlook, UBS (UBS) strategists declared that mortgage-backed securities are poised to be an attractive investment. This doesn't necessarily signal that defaults and foreclosures on home loans will totally recover anytime soon, UBS says. Ironically, some of the factors working against the housing market today are helping make the securities more appealing to investors.
These days, mortgage-backed securities come with relatively less risk, since banks have enforced much stricter lending standards. Fewer people are taking out new home loans, even while mortgage rates have fallen to record lows.
What’s Wrong With Cutting Taxes?
Bond Markets Settle Down; U.S. Indexes Mixed
Morgan Stanley Aims to Rein In Executive Pay
They have had financial problems - like everyone- but also because they hoped that hiring more people would create revenue growth. However, they hired 2,000 people and have seen little growth in revenue.
This prompted complaints from shareholders about high wage payout costs and led to these cut backs. Instead of laying off the newly hired, Morgan Stanley will cut back the pay and bonuses of top executives.
However, Morgan Stanley promised that the employees that did well will still receive competitive pay yet the workers that have not done so well this year will see a cut in their pay.
The firm hopes these moves will help them in the long run and in the eyes of stockholders.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
MasterCard, Visa targeted in apparent cyberattack
Banks boost stocks, but gains are modest
Opening Bankruptcy Court to the States
This is a future possibility and suggestion because states are struggling to cut more expenses and raise any more taxes.
I didn't quite understand the logistics of how this would work and I do not think the article went into enough detail of what would happen after the state filed for bankruptcy. Maybe somebody can read this and understand it better than I.
A Bond Rush as Treasury Prices Fall
The reason people began buying the bonds is because the extension on the Bush tax cuts is seen as something that will raise the deficit and raise the price of borrowing.
-Remember, the Fed is selling $600 billion in bonds through June 2011.
AIG's Partially Back
It will repay the remaining $21bn outstanding from a $91bn loan from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The move will pave the way for the US Treasury to sell a fifth of the insurer on the stock exchange early next year."
Looks like a long and steady road of recovery.
Fed Says KC Region Economy Strengthens
PPI: Headline Up 0.4 Percent; Core Prices Down 0.6 Percent
In contrast, the core index, which does not include energy or food product prices, fell by a large 0.6 percent. This was the largest decline in the index since 2006. Much of the decline was due to an adjustment having to do with the year’s new models of cars and light trucks. A similar decline occurred in October of last year. However, this still illustrates very modest levels of underlying inflation in the system and adds to the Fed’s view of inflation being low relative to employment levels.
“The worries of deflation are once again front and center and could soften criticisms of QE2,” said Jim Chessen, Chief Economist for the American Bankers Association.
From a year prior, the core index was up 1.4 percent. The top line index, including all finished products, was 4.3 percent higher from a year prior.
Industrial Production Flat, but Manufacturing Output Up 0.5 Percent
The capacity utilization rate remained flat at 74.8 percent. Though this is off of its lows of the cycle, it is still considerably low. A large amount of excess capacity continues to exist. Until this rate comes up further, significant amount of industrial sector investments will not be required.
Fed Misprints $110 Billion in New $100 notes
The only problem, though, was that apparently the U.S. government couldn't reliably print it either. During the initial printing run, a flaw in the printing process was encountered, which led to a layer of the paper folding over after inking, revealing an uninked portion.
Approximately 30 percent of the the approximately $366B USD printed, or roughly $110B USD worth of bills, carry the flaw. That's a whopping 1.1 billion botched bills.
This is ironic since it's been the general belief that the US should raise the money supply, to keep inflation at a steady rate...and they misprint $110 billion of it in the process.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Is proposed tax plan a game-changer for the economy?
House hunters are too scared to buy despite low prices
Obama Defiant in Defending Tax-Cut Plan as ‘Good Deal’
Although, on the flip side, the tax-cuts are believed to help create jobs as the wealthiest Americans will be able to invest in firms and pass down that wealth to the working/middle class, there seems to be a larger population who believe these tax-cuts are not about to help the economy but rather deepen its troubles.
A Hint of Good Job Market News
Rich make out in tax deal
Australia Keeps Rates Steady, RBA Seen Sidelined Into 2011
SYDNEY—Australia's central bank left interest rates unchanged at 4.75% Tuesday and said it expects inflation to remained contained over the "next few quarters," signaling that the bank is likely to sit on the sidelines well into 2011.
The decision left few surprised after data last week showed the economy grew at its slowest quarterly pace in two years in the September quarter and Reserve Bank of Australia Gov. Glenn Stevens said he was content with the level of interest rates.
Still, some economists were forecasting the Reserve Bank would raise rates again relatively soon in 2011. That timeline now looks to have been pushed back substantially. After the statement, financial markets moved the timing of the next rate increase from late 2011 into 2012.
"They are telling us they are comfortable for at least the next few quarters," said Rob Henderson, head of Australian Economics at the National Australia Bank. "There is no rush to hike rates."
A decision by major banks to sharply raise their mortgage lending rates in November, citing rising funding costs, also played a role in keeping the central bank's powder dry in December. The high Australian dollar has further tightened monetary conditions.
"Following the board's decision last month to lift the cash rate, and the subsequent increases by financial institutions, lending rates in the economy are now a little above average. The board views this setting of monetary policy as appropriate for the economic outlook," Mr. Stevens said in a statement.
Recent data on the economy have also showed shopkeepers are heading into a disappointing end-year sales period, adding to concerns about growth as government economic stimulus is withdrawn. Australian consumers have been cautious for some time, depressing retail sales.
Data earlier Tuesday showed a slump in construction stretching into a sixth consecutive month. The Australian Industry Group's Performance of Construction Index fell 1.8 points to 42.2 in November from October. An index reading below 50 points indicates contracting activity.
"[The RBA] are still very much focusing on medium-term outlook, but I think they believe they have done enough for a time and can sit on their hands," said Josh Williamson, senior economist at Citigroup.
Still, the Reserve Bank has retained a tightening bias, albeit one it looks unlikely to use for a while, economists said.
Wage pressures are growing but forward indicators of the job market suggest some slowdown in hiring is likely, Mr. Stevens said. Over the next few quarters, inflation is expected to be little changed, though it is likely to increase somewhat over the medium term if the economy grows as expected, he added.
Inflation in Australia remains within the Reserve Bank's 2% to 3% target band.
The Reserve Bank has led other central banks in tightening monetary policy, raising the cash rate target seven times since October 2009.
Despite recent soft data, the Australian economy is expected to grow strongly in 2011 as mining investment gathers traction and consumers throw off recent caution that has seen household savings rates soar.
The resources boom now engulfing the economy is the biggest in more than 100 years, with demand for exports of coal and iron ore surging on the back of strong demand from China, and elsewhere in Asia.
The Australian dollar was slightly weaker after the statement. At 4:30 GMT, it was trading at 99.02 U.S. cents, down from 99.10 U.S. cents just prior.
Asia's Inflation Worries Damp Holiday Shopping Cheer
By ALEX FRANGOS
HONG KONG—A cheerful holiday shopping season in the U.S. and Europe could be too much of a good thing for fast-growing Asia's exporters, complicating the region's efforts to fight inflation.
Early indications are that Americans are digging deeper into their pockets than expected to buy televisions, tablet computers and toys, most of which come from Asia. Export figures from Asia have been stronger than expected, confirming a possible bounce in activity. Air freighters from Hong Kong to the U.S. and Europe have been running full loads.
What sounds like good news for a region that derives much of its economic growth from exports could end up being a challenge. Central bankers have kept interest rates low on expectations that consumer demand in the West would stay sluggish. But a boost in growth could be enough to turn a small inflation problem into a bigger one.
"If exports to the U.S. hold up, then Asia is running out of any spare capacity and will quickly find itself with escalating price pressures," says Frederic Neumann, Asia economist for HSBC in Hong Kong. "To keep a lid on prices, Asia needs the West to languish a little while longer."
Unlike in the West, which is fighting deflationary pressures, prices in Asia are on the rise. Food prices and rents are increasing. Factories are running close to or above capacity, and unemployment is low, driving wages higher.
As inflationary expectations in Asia creep up, some are concerned that central banks have been too slow to raise interest rates. China raised benchmark interest rates in October and recently modified its monetary policy stance from "moderately loose" to "prudent," leading to expectations that further rate increases are imminent.
The Asian Development Bank on Tuesday raised its current-year forecast for growth in Asia, saying the recovery "appears to be even stronger than envisaged" in September, when it last published growth forecasts. It predicted the region, excluding Japan, will grow 8.6%, rather than 8.2%. The Manila-based bank credited strong private spending and exports holding up better than expected.
Much will depend on how Asian exports perform in the coming months. Early signs are hopeful from places that specialize in high-tech gadgets that the U.S. and Europe love to buy. Taiwan's exports rose 21.8% in November from a year earlier, to $24.37 billion, driven by strong demand for the island's electronic products, its Ministry of Finance said Tuesday.
South Korea last week also reported strong November export growth. Both Taiwan and South Korea are the first Asian economies to report trade figures each month and are seen as leading indicators for global trade. Their high-tech components are used to assemble telephones and televisions in mainland Chinese factories, and later sold to consumers in the U.S. and Europe.
Stocks of technology companies, such as Taiwan computer maker Acer Inc. and China's Lenovo Group Ltd. have risen on the heightened expectations. Japanese videogame maker Nintendo Co. said it sold 1.5 million consoles and hand-held gaming systems in the last week of November, more than analysts expected.
A consumer rebound in the U.S. is far from a sure thing. Unemployment is stubbornly high at 9.8%. Inventories of goods on store shelves are rising, usually an indicator that retailers will begin to scale back their purchases, fearful of holding too much stock.
Central banks in the region aren't counting on a big burst of economic activity in the U.S., and are keeping interest rates low partially as a buffer against a sluggish 2011. They figure the restocking of U.S. and European warehouses after the financial crisis is over, and now the debt-laden, underemployed consumer sectors will be cautious. Reflecting that view, the Asian Development Bank forecasts growth will slow in developing Asia next year to 7.3%.
Some Asian companies that rely on demand in the U.S. and Europe, having been fooled in the past by good starts to holiday shopping that eventually peter out, aren't convinced yet that the U.S. is really on the rebound.
"It's too soon to say" whether a new wave of buying will come in 2011, according to Stanley Lau, managing director for Renley Watch Manufacturing Co. His company, with factories in Hong Kong, China and Switzerland, produces 1.5 million watches a year for high-end Western brands that sell in the U.S. and Europe. "The next one month will be crucial for our exporters to see the performance of the Christmas sales," he said.
The more optimistic view is that the holiday shopping season will draw down those inventories and new orders will appear in the new year.
Economic-activity signs in the U.S. have been surprisingly healthy, despite the disappointing November jobs report released last week. Major retailers in the U.S. reported a 6.5% increase in sales in November from a year earlier, according to Thomson Reuters. Consumer confidence is at its highest level since May.
There is also good news out of Europe, which is a bigger market than the U.S. for some Asian exporters, including China. Despite fears of Greek and Irish debt woes, German unemployment is at an 18-year low and Nordic countries, such as Norway and Sweden are enjoying solid growth.
Edward Lau, managing director for TNT Express in Hong Kong, says use of the air-shippers' planes between China and Europe over the final weeks of the holiday rush have been "very healthy." TNT recently added service between Chinese interior city Chongqing and Europe, and augmented service from Hong Kong and Shanghai.
Read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704250704576005002708945750.html#ixzz17SdIPIAp
U.S. Mortgage Delinquency Rate Could Fall to 5% in '11
The percentage of U.S. consumers who are delinquent on their mortgages could fall to about 5% by the end of 2011, from an expected 6.2% at the end of this year, according to a leading credit bureau.
Even so, the proportion of consumers who are 60 or more days overdue on their mortgages would still be sharply higher than the historical range of 1.5% to 2%, according to TransUnion LLC, which analyzed about 27 million randomly selected consumer records from its database. The Chicago credit bureau first started tracking these statistics in 1992.
In data released Tuesday, TransUnion forecasts that mortgage delinquencies will fall to 4.98% in the fourth quarter of 2011 from 6.21% at the end of this year. According to TransUnion, this delinquency rate peaked at 6.89% in fourth quarter of 2009, as lenders tightened underwriting standards.
A decrease in mortgage delinquencies, traditionally a precursor to foreclosure, could boost the faltering recovery in the U.S. economy and the residential real-estate market.
"We think that the mortgage industry isn't out of the woods yet, but it's starting to move in a better direction," said Steve Chaouki, a group vice president in TransUnion's financial-services unit.
Protracted and high unemployment and depressed home values are contributing to the elevated delinquency rate.
TransUnion also forecast that credit-card delinquencies, an important gauge of future losses for lenders, will continue to fall, though not nearly as sharply. By the end of this year, the ratio of credit-card borrowers who are 90 days or more delinquent on one or more of their credit cards is expected to reach 0.75%—below the levels at the beginning of 2007, at the peak of the credit boom, according to TransUnion.
As credit quality improves, this delinquency rate is expected to fall to 0.67% by the end of 2011. Credit-card delinquencies are lower than mortgage delinquencies in part because credit-card lenders have more ways to control the potential losses, such as reducing customers' credit lines.
IMF Chief Criticizes Euro Crisis Response
ATHENS—The head of the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday urged European countries to find a comprehensive solution to the region's debt crisis, faulting their approach to date as ad hoc and too slow.
Dominique Strauss-Kahn spoke as European finance ministers met in Brussels to debate enlarging the temporary fund for euro-zone members in need of emergency loans, as well as how to set up a permanent funding vehicle.
But those talks so far have been marred by sharp disagreements among various euro-zone governments over the details of future bailouts.
"My view is very simple—the euro zone must find a comprehensive solution to this problem," the IMF managing director said. "It is not a good approach that for every country we find a separate solution."
European leaders set up the €750 billion ($998.55 billion) European Financial Stability Facility in May, soon after they had put together a €110 billion financial rescue package to help Greece cope with its debt crisis, and have since extended a further €85 billion loan to Ireland.
The stability facility was created as a temporary measure to try to stem worries about the rising indebtedness of other euro-zone countries. Combined, the euro-zone countries have provided €440 billion to the total, the IMF has contributed €250 billion, with the remaining €60 billion coming from European Union contingency funds.
However, there have been disagreements over whether the size of the temporary fund should be expanded, while there are also disputes over how its successor facility should be financed and structured.
In his remarks, Mr. Strauss-Kahn likened Europe's expanding debt crisis to the financial turmoil that rocked the U.S. two years earlier. But he criticized Europe for its slow response and said the lessons learned from the American crisis called for a speedy and comprehensive solution.
"The institutional organs of the European system likely need some improvement so as to react more quickly," he said. "They were not created to deal with crisis, they were created for more peaceful times."
In the U.S., the effects of a widening crisis were first transmitted from bank to bank by a collapse of confidence in the interbank market.
In the past three months in Europe, investor fears that the EU and IMF may soon have to help Portugal and Spain have pressured the sovereign bonds of indebted euro-zone states and raised the cost of borrowing for those countries, further aggravating existing debt problems.
"Clearly the euro zone has a problem of high debt among some of its members. It is not a tremendous problem for the euro zone—I don't agree with the view with those who say that the future of the euro zone is at risk—but it is a problem and it must be addressed," Mr. Strauss-Kahn said. "And for it to be addressed effectively it must be addressed in a complete and comprehensive manner."
Mr. Strauss-Kahn was in Athens to discuss with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou the country's continuing reform efforts as well as negotiate an extension to the period in which Greece must pay off its EU and IMF loans.
At a joint press conference, he said he was "impressed" with Greece's efforts to narrow its budget deficit, but said Greeks still faced a long road of difficult, structural reforms ahead.
Since May, Greece has narrowed its budget deficit from a record 15.4% of gross domestic product in 2009, to a projected 9.4% of GDP this year. For next year, it aims to reduce the deficit to 7.5% of GDP.
However, Greece still faces high borrowing costs on international markets, in part because of investor jitters over the country's ability to service a €70 billion-a-year in loan repayments in 2014 and 2015.
To ease some of those concerns, Mr. Strauss-Kahn publicly floated the idea of extending Greece's loan repayment schedule in October. And last month European finance ministers decided to consider extending the repayment period until 2024 from 2018, to bring it in line with Ireland's emergency loan.
"It is not an urgent issue, but we shouldn't wait too long about it," Mr. Strauss-Kahn said. "From our side, we are ready to do it. We'll see with our European partners how that should happen."
Late Tuesday, Greek public sector umbrella union ADEDY and the Communist-backed PAME union held protest rallies outside parliament to coincide with the IMF chief's visit.
South Korea and U.S. Reach Deal on Trade
G.E. and JPMorgan Got Lots of Fed Help in ’08
Poland’s Currency Lifts Economy
Without the euro, Poland is prospering.
"One of the big lessons of the European debt crisis, Polish leaders say, is that countries should not adopt the euro until their economies and labor markets are flexible enough to compensate for the loss of control over exchange rates."
The Polish zloty has fallen 18% against the Euro but has therefore helped Polish goods and isolated them from the European crisis.
Tax Deal Suggests New Path for Obama
Monday Obama announced a tentative deal with the republicans in congress over the Bush tax cuts. Obama and the democrats will agree to extend the tax cuts to all income levels (although they wanted to only extend them for the middle class bracket).
Therefore, the republicans agree to raise the aid to the long term unemployed and to cut payroll taxes for all workers for a year.
The debate between the parties over the Bush tax cuts has been the first standoff since the midterm elections. Although the newly elected republicans are not overriding the democrats, Obama appears to be struggling with his own party as he pushes to get things done and maintains his very liberal mindset.
This package will cost about $900 million over the next two years.
Interesting for us - this will continue a college tuition tax credit for some families.
Monday, December 6, 2010
We Lost 8 Million Jobs. Only 1 Million Came Back
At last we can see some recovery in terms of job availability. Unfortunately, the job openings aren't enough but at least we are seeing some progress toward a healthier economy.
Debt, deficits and delays
The plan proposed a cut in projected spending by $2.2 trillion between 2012 and 2020 while raising revenue by almost $1 trillion. The failure to pass the policy is not shocking and shows how challenging it will be to develop a plan that has the support of both parties.
It may be a good thing the plan was rejected since November’s unemployment numbers continued to rise. The unemployment report suggests that passing this plan now may put the brakes on the economy before we are really start moving forward again.
US Treasury sets final sale of Citi common shares
2.4 billion shares of stock will be put on the market.
45 billion dollars were invested in Citigroup to stabilize the financial system after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008.
The Treasury sold 5.3 billion of the 7.7 billion and received 25 billion dollars in Citibank stock.
Bush Tax-Cut Deal With Jobless Aid Said to Be Near
Now a compromise must be reached. The republicans are willing to give long term cuts for the unemployed if the Democrats agree to keep tax cuts for high earners for at least two more years.
Congress is trying to seal a deal soon so they can move on to another long list of priorities to finish before new members come in - such as "don't ask don't tell" and the New Start arms treaty with Russia.
Unemployment rate rised to 9.8%
The United States added a total of just 39,000 jobs last month, down from an upwardly revised gain of 172,000 in October, the Labor Department reported on Friday. With local governments shedding jobs, the additions in the private sector were too small to reduce the ranks of the unemployed or even to keep pace with people entering the work force.
The unemployment rate, which is based on a separate survey of households, rose to 9.8 percent in November. It was the highest jobless rate since April and up from 9.6 percent in October. Part of the surprise in the November report was that layoffs, which had subsided earlier this year, picked up again. The number of people who were unemployed because they had been laid off or had concluded a temporary assignment increased by 390,000. The median length of time the unemployed had been out of work also rose to 21.6 weeks, the third consecutive monthly increase. For those who have been searching for work for more than six months, this is a particularly discouraging prospect.
US Dollar rises: Thanks a bunch Europe!
Earlier this week, the dollar soared against the euro and other major currencies when a rescue deal for debt-troubled Ireland failed to calm investors worried that the debt crisis might spread. At one point on Monday, a day after European officials announced Ireland's bailout package,the euro fell below $1.31 for the first time since September 21. The British pound fell to $1.5565 from $1.5602 and the dollar rose to 84.24 Japanese yen from 84.07 yen.
However, the dollar's rise in the backdrop of Europe's demise might likely be temporary. After all, the U.S., though probably not to the scale of Ireland and other European countries, has its own debt problems that officials are trying to solve. And some central bankers and even the United Nations have said the greenback's value has been too volatile to be the world's primary reserve currency.
Yes, the economy is making steady gains but...
Sunday, December 5, 2010
In Tax Cuts, the Options Run Short
Democrats have left themselves in a tough spot on the Bush tax cuts. After delaying the issue until after the election and then being trounced in that election, they find themselves with little leverage.
If they cannot come up with a plan that can win 60 votes in the Senate, which means at least two Republican votes, Republicans can filibuster any bill. All of the tax cuts would then expire on Dec. 31. When the new Republican House majority arrives in January, it will be able to make its first order of business a retroactive tax cut — forcing President Obama and Senate Democrats to choose between a purely Republican plan and an across-the-board tax increase.
Pressure Rises to Bolster European Bailout Fund
Cash Flow to Terrorists Evades U.S. Efforts
The government cables, sent by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and senior State Department officials, catalog a list of methods that American officials suspect terrorist financiers are using, including a brazen bank robbery in Yemen last year, kidnappings for ransom, the harvesting of drug proceeds in Afghanistan and fund-raising at religious pilgrimages to Mecca, where millions of riyals or other forms of currency change hands.
Tax Fear May Move Bonuses Earlier
Worried that lawmakers will allow taxes to rise for the wealthiest Americans beginning next year, financial firms are discussing whether to move up their bonus payouts from next year to this month.
At stake is a portion of the hefty annual payouts that are a familiar part of the compensation culture on Wall Street, as well as a juicy target of popular anger. If Congress does not extend the Bush-era tax cuts for the highest income levels, a typical worker who earns a $1 million bonus would pay $40,000 to $50,000 more in taxes next year than this year, depending on base salary.
Bush Tax-Cut Deal With Jobless Aid Said to Be Near
A day after the Senate rejected President Obama's preferred tax plan, officials said the broad contours of a compromise were in focus.
Rather than extending the tax rates only on income described by Democrats as middle class — up to $250,000 a year for couples and $200,000 for individuals — the deal would also keep the rates for higher earners, probably for two years. In return, Republicans said they would probably agree to extend jobless aid for the long-term unemployed.
In '60 Minutes' Interview, Bernanke Favors Revised Tax Code
Stock Investors Waiting on Bush Tax Cuts
Bernanke on 60 Minutes: Grim picture for jobs ahead
U.S. Sets Sweeping New Deal on Trade
"This agreement shows the U.S. is willing to lead and compete in the global economy," the president told reporters at the White House, according to the Associated Press, calling it a triumph for American workers in fields from farming to aerospace.
Inflation Risk Is Low, Fed Says
So That’s Where the Money Went
The Fed data showed that the biggest recipient of taxpayer assistance was, naturally, Citigroup. It was followed closely by Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. All of these recipients received gradual payouts whereas Goldman Sachs only received aid during the worst times of 2008.
Pressure Rises to Bolster European Bailout Fund
The fund will become permanent in 2013. Finance ministers suggest that waiting until then to increase the fund would not be smart.
They suggested that the European Central Bank should increase its bond buying program.
Why Employers Won't Hire
Things are not looking good for the labor force according to the employment report for November. In response to the recession, firms began to cut back unnecessary work and figure out how to increase production per worker so that they could hire less people. What this means for the current economy, which has regained over 80% of the output initially lost but has only regained 11% of the labor force that was cut, is that firms don't really need to rehire the millions laid off because of the recession because they have found how to run their businesses effectively with less workers. There is a limit however to how much productivity can keep increasing without workers fighting back or without things like customer satisfaction becoming an issue. Hiring will likely not drastically increase until these issues become more prevalent.