Monday, September 11, 2023

Argentina's Battle Against Inflation : Is the Dollar the Solution?

    Currently facing inflation rates of 113% and a heated presidential race, the people of Argentina have some serious decisions to make in order to attempt to stabilize their economy. Javier Milei has thrust himself into the presidential race lead as his unconventional practices and bold policies have caused a division amongst the Argentine people. The libertarian radical has said that he wants to get rid of the central bank and dollarize the economy. Countries like Venezuela, El Salvador, Panama, and even Argentina in 1991 have undergone dollarization, with the goal of dollarization being to create stability throughout the economy while still keeping administrative roles within the country itself. 

    Many Argentine people are against this practice because there is fear of losing their economic independence and becoming too reliant on the United States. Whether you support Milei or not, the Argentine people have recognized that the peso may be on its way out and have begun exchanging their pesos for dollars. In 2022, 2,000 pesos could get you $10, but now with inflation as high as it is, you will only receive around $2.70. The streets of Buenos Aires have also begun reflecting the potential switch to the dollar with signs showing store prices in dollars. 

    With an October election looming large, the people of Argentina are left with a decision that has the ability change the economic landscape of their country. The younger population of Argentina continues their support for dollarization as they search to find a solution to their future, but many opponents to dollarization were alive in 1991 when Argentina first tried dollarization. This came to an abrupt end as Argentina faced another economic crisis, and the run on the peso created riots. As the divide between pro-dollarization Argentine's and anti-dollarization grows, the underlying issue of all-time high inflation looms large. 

The Phillips Curve & Inflation/Unemployment

    Bill Phillips, who became a famous economist for his discovery of the famous Phillips Curve that shows a correlation between unemployment and inflation methods are being questioned yet again in the day and economy we are living in. Phillips attending the London School of Business for after creating the water flow model that showed how the economy affected to different changes like fiscal policy changes for example by increasing the water level. His method lead to the curve he is famous for which said that if unemployment was high inflation was low and vice versa. 

    Freedman in the 60s spoke out in disagreement with Phillips idea and said that there is more that goes into the correlation between unemployment and inflation like inflation expectations. He said that this curve was too simple to truly predict the true correlation. 

    In the 70s there was high inflation and unemployment was spiking (which went against the Phillips curve method), this is called stagnation. Stagnation made people feel lousy so economist came up with a Phillips curve 2.0 to try and combat these new issues arising. The Phillips curve 2.0 took account for all the other variables that affect the market. There was a soft landing that took place in the 80s that increased inflation (not drastically) and increased unemployment but kept the economy stable.

    Then in the 90s till about a couple years ago inflation was steady despite the changing economy which introduces the new problem. In the ever changing economy of recession, pandemics, and the boom of the tech industry inflation should not have stayed the same when looking at the Philips curve. 

    The goal is to now have another soft landing like in the 80s decrease inflation but not to increase unemployment all at the same time. The FRBSF economic research department predicts after using the Phillips non linear curve as well as the Beveridge curve that, "a soft landing for the economy is achievable if a decline in inflation to near 2%... with only a modest increase in unemployment". The question is when will this take place and will it solve our problem?

https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2023/july/reducing-inflation-along-nonlinear-phillips-curve/ 

https://www.npr.org/2023/09/08/1197953033/bill-phillips-curve-history