US trade deficit hits 1-1/2-year low on rising exports

The Commerce Department issued a statement on Friday saying that the trade gap narrowed 9.9 percent to $36.4 billion, the smallest since February 2015. August's trade deficit was revised down to $40.5 billion.

Exports, which have risen 0.6% to $189.2 billion is September, were boosted by shipments of industrial supplies and materials as well as consumer goods. The exports of soybeans fell in September.

Exports to the EU, the UK and China all rose, whereas imports dropped 13% in September to $225.6 billion.

Imports from China dropped by 2.8 percent. The politically sensitive U.S.-China trade deficit dropped 4.1 percent to $32.5 billion in September.http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/04/us-trade-deficit-hits-1-12-year-low-on-rising-exports.html

Here’s How Much Obamacare Premiums Are Rising in All 50 States

  A huge topic in this years election has been Obamacare, and if it was good for our nation or not. If you have watched the debates you have seen Hilary's viewpoint on Obamacare, which is to keep it but to restructure it. As for Trump he wants to completely wipe out Obamacare. In this article you are able to see how Obamacare is going to affect premiums in all 50 states. Premiums are projected to increase by an average of 25 percent, and are expected to increase by double digits in 31 states. And if you look at the table at the bottom of the article you can see that premiums are expected to increase by triple digits in the state of Arizona. It will be interesting to see if Clinton becomes are next president how she plans to restructure Obamacare, and how that will affect future premiums in the 50 states. It will also be interesting to see if Trump is elected president how he plans to just wipe out Obamacare, and how that will affect future premiums. This is a big topic for me as well, because I will be graduating next in 2017 and these plans will affect me in the future.




Link:  http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/healthcare/here%e2%80%99s-how-much-obamacare-premiums-are-rising-in-all-50-states/ar-AAjHZab

Immigrants Are Keeping America Young — And The Economy Growing

This article explores some of the truths about immigration that are actually benefiting the U.S. First off, the native-U.S. population and labor force participation rate are declining as more and more baby-boomers enter retirement, and birth rates decrease. However, the increasing amount of young immigrants is maintaining growth in the U.S. economy in contrast to economies like Japan where the aging population is creating more and more of a problem. Immigrants in the U.S. do not really steal jobs away from U.S.-natives according to economists. Instead they take the lower-skilled jobs that no one is willing to have anyway; but, many immigrants are entrepreneurial and actually much more likely to start a business than a U.S.-native. So, although there is increasing reinforcement to the negative connotation of immigration, there are actually many positive gains that are keeping our economy afloat while other 'old' countries are in decline.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/immigrants-are-keeping-america-young-and-the-economy-growing/

Venezuela is now the World's Worst Economy

After a complete breakdown of the Democratic System in Venezuela they are definitely one of the world's worst economies.  They are currently in their third year of a recession and are predicted to stay in this recession until 2019, this year they are also expected to have around -10% GDP growth this year.  With one dollar today being able to get you 1,262 Bolivars their inflation is expected to rise 475% while the prices of goods are skyrocketing.  A big reason for all of this is that their oil is not selling, which makes up about 95% of their exports.  They have not kept up with the maintenance on their oil facilities and also have neglected to pay the companies that extract their oil for them.  Their food shortages were also severe earlier this year going months without basic things such as milk, eggs, bread and cheese, only recently have they lifted the ban food imports and price controls which is putting food back on the shelves, although these prices are so high Venezuelans can't afford it.  Another reason for their falling economy is that they are literally running out of cash, to pay off their debt to Switzerland this year they shipped them gold bars.  Their economy is so bad even China, who has long been their ally and helped them financially, has stopped lending them money.  Overall this can not be good for intertanital trade and markets since their currency and goods are so overpriced.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/25/news/economy/venezuela-breaking-point/index.html?iid=SF_River

Q3 GDP beats Expectations

Economists expected U.S. GDP to grow 2.5% in the 3rd quarter following growth of 1.4% in the Q2. The U.S. economy outpaced these expectations with increases in exports and inventory investment fueling a 2.9% jump in GDP. Although consumer spending continues to lag, this is expected to change with the upcoming holiday season that generally boosts Q4. This growth is a good sign for the U.S. economy, which many believed was stalling and showing signs of weakness. Despite Donald Trump's constant negativity, the nation is gaining confidence in the economy and we look to be on pace for a fed rate hike in December. We will be watching the fed closely over the next couple of days for indications on upcoming monetary policy.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/us-advance-q3-gdp.html

Final Fed Meeting and Final Jobs Report Before Election Day

The article talks mainly about how the economy is doing before the meeting that the Fed is going to have before the presidential elections. In general it says that the economy is doing well, but that this is not going to make the Fed to change the interest rates mainly because they are scared of what could happen with the economy after the elections. Since they don't know what the elections could cause, they say that they are going to wait until the meeting that the Fed is having on December to change the interest rates. Most of the people believe the Fed is going to raise the interest rate this year but also most of them believe this is going to be in December and not before because they want to wait for the results of the election. Also they talk about how the economy could affect the decision the people take in the elections, because Trump has criticized that the economy is doing really bad and that they are not creating enough jobs as they should, but economist say this is because the Unemployment level is low (5%), and that even if the economy is not ideal that it is in good shape and that democrats are doing a good job in general. The article also talks about other countries, for example they talk about how well England's economy is doing compared to what economist were predicting after the decision of the Brexit for leaving the European Union. They say the economy is doing well and that it hasn't slowed down as much as they were expecting it to, one of the reasons why they say this is happening is because the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.25%, which is the lowest level in its 322 year history.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/31/business/final-fed-meeting-and-final-jobs-report-before-election-day.html?_r=0

Substantial increases in Chinese investment

Due to the recent slowdown in economic growth for China, companies like the HNA group, and China Travel Academy are doing their best to make sure that with the recent spike of Chinese tourism to America, will benefit China as much as possible. China sees the hospitality industry in America a safe place to invest because of China's recent influence on tourism, and thus airline and insurance industries, are looking to invest in American hotels. 

"In April, an HNA division announced it was buying Carlson Hotels, which owns Radisson and several other brands. Last month, Anbang Insurance Group completed the purchase of 15 American hotels in a deal worth more than $5bn, including the JW Marriott Essex House in New York, the Westin St. Francis in San Francisco, the InterContinental in Chicago, a Four Seasons in Washington, DC, and two Ritz-Carlton resorts. And just last week came the news that China Life Insurance Co. is leading an investment group that is buying a $2bn stake in a collection of 280 American establishments."

The two reasons given for this surge in investment is that (1) the slow in growth in China is frustrating and prompting investment abroad, and (2) vertical integration in the tourism industry is expected to have a large impact on travel. 
In all China's investment is hoping to catch and return as much abroad spending as possible back to their own economy, further improving their growth. This also means that the US economy is not reaping all of its rewards for the hospitality industry it has created, and our growth may be slowed as a result. 


http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2016/10/rooms-growth
 

US weekly jobless claims total 258,000 vs 255,000 estimate

The percentage of  total Americans who filed for unemployment benefits fell in the previous week, indicating towards prolonged labor market strength and firming economic growth.

A Labor Department analyst said there were no out of the ordiinary factors influencing last week's data.

The four-week average of continuing claims dropped down 64,500 between the September and October survey periods, which implies that the unemployment rate could fall this month from 5 percent in September.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/27/us-weekly-jobless-claims-oct-22-2016.html

Where the Next Crisis Will Come From (Peter Coy of BloombergBusinessweek)

There happens to be a weird occurrence of financial meltdowns occurring in years ending in "7" in recent history.  With that said, next year is 2017.  The article cited at the bottom of this post, breaks down the potential vulnerabilities of our global economy.  The IMF Global Financial Stability Report that was released earlier this month cites three major areas of concern for our global economy:
1. the unsettled political climate "which makes entrenched problems harder to tackle"
2. some weak financial institutions in developed markets
3. heavy corporate debts in emerging markets

The area of concern that worries me the most and puts our global economy in major vulnerability is the role that "heavy corporate debts play in emerging markets." Peter Coy stated an important point on the role that debt plays on our economy, "Debt fuels growth but also makes borrowers brittle. Debtors keep owing money even if they lose the ability to repay. If they default, their lenders are damaged and sometimes default on their own obligations, and so the dominoes fall."

With that point made, because of low interest rates holding big banks back from helping boost their funds to help them in crisis time will big banks fail again in the year ahead due to this lingering debt issue?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-20/where-the-next-crisis-will-come-from

US advance Q3 gross domestic product up 2.9%, vs 2.5% increase expected

This article discussed how the U.S. economy has grown grew at its fastest pace in two years in the third quarter. It lists that the main reasons for this was a surge in exports and a rebound in inventory investment which caused a slowdown in consumer spending.

It was the strongest growth rate since the third quarter of 2014. GDP ended up increasing at a 2.9 percent annual rate. Luke Bartholomew, who is a fixed income investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management in London, believes that “…the U.S. is roughly on track. It's a natural bounce back following a pretty underwhelming year so far".

The article also discussed the surge in soybean exports that helped to shrink the trade deficit in the third quarter as exports increased at a 10 percent rate.

Some other factors to the newfound economic growth discussed were that business inventories went up causing a 0.61 percentage point to GDP growth and spending on nonresidential structures increased at a 5.4 percent rate in the third quarter.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/us-advance-q3-gdp.html

Australia hasn't had a recession in 25 years.

Australia has not had a recession in 25 years, and the central bank is part of that huge achievement.  The central bank has been able to keep interest rates low or near negative territory.  It doesn't strictly aim for a two percent inflation rate. Instead, the central bank aims for two to three percent inflation averaged over the business cycle.  It is amazing to see that the Australian central bank puts so much importance to average over the inflation time that it actually works for the Australian economy.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/09/australia-hasnt-had-a-recession-in-25-years-this-is-what-the-rest-of-the-world-can-learn?utm_content=buffer10fdc&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Here’s What’s Going Right, and Wrong, in the U.S. Economy

The economy has significantly improved since the last recession. The article talks about both the negative and positive aspects of the current economy.First of all it discusses the GDP and how it has improved over time. The economy grew at 4.2 percent , excluding the inventories.Also,consumption is the biggest component of the US economy.  Personal expenditure grew by 4.2 percent this year. The increase in consumption has lead to a shrinkage of the investment According to the article, "The simple fact is that consumers are driving the economic train now, and businesses are pulling back." 

Consumers Drove the Economy This Spring

Contribution to second-quarter G.D.P. growth

Personal consumption expenditures

Net exports

Business investment in intellectual property

Government expenditures

Business investment in equipment

Business investment in structures

Residential investment

Change in inventories

2.8%

0.2%

0.1%

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.2%

-1.2%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source  :

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/30/upshot/heres-whats-going-right-and-wrong-in-the-us-economy.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FUnited%20States%20Economy

Link : 

How Halloween benefits the US economy

In the US the holiday season does create in increase in consumption. Although, Halloween is not really known as a big money spending holiday it is easy to overlook with Christmas just two months away. This fall holiday is a kickoff to the increase in American consumption in a way. In this link it is stated that this year Halloween is expected to bring in an $8.4 billion revenue. This could be indicative of future growth in consumption for the holidays around the corner. With this "all-time high" revenue it could be seen as possible that the economy is in a growth period and could possibly reach Donald Trump's vision of 4% in Consumption.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/video/tunedin/halloween-by-the-numbers/vi-AAjkbpC?ocid=UE01DHP

Chinese firms are investing heavily in American hotels

Chinese firms have been very active in buying American Hotels in the recent years.  This year, a Chinese firm, HNA Group, will be the largest shareholder in the hotelier if they follow through with their announcement that they are going to buy a 25% stake in Hilton Worldwide Holdings.  This hotelier includes brands such as Conrad, Embassy Suites, and the Hampton Inn.

"In April, an HNA division announced it was buying Carlson Hotels, which owns Radisson and several other brands. Last month, Anbang Insurance Group completed the purchase of 15 American hotels in a deal worth more than $5bn, including the JW Marriott Essex House in New York, the Westin St. Francis in San Francisco, the InterContinental in Chicago, a Four Seasons in Washington, DC, and two Ritz-Carlton resorts. And just last week came the news that China Life Insurance Co. is leading an investment group that is buying a $2bn stake in a collection of 280 American establishments.  And just last week came the news that China Life Insurance Co. is leading an investment group that is buying a $2bn stake in a collection of 280 American establishments."

 There are a few reasons why buying hotels for aviation and insurance companies is a good idea.  The first reason is that the Chinese view American hospitality industry as a safe space to invest their money.  The second reason is that it is a form of vertical integration in the tourism industry.  "The recent slowdown in Chinese economic growth has caused jitters at home and prompted more investments abroad." Around 2 million Chinese people visit America each year, and is supposed to rise to over 3 million by 2020.  

Chinese are hoping to receive as much of the $70 billion+ that tourists from the mainland spend abroad and at home this year.  By buying/investing in American hotels, the Chinese are going to be able to control the entire travel process for Chinese travelers.


http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2016/10/rooms-growth

Inflation, Long Quiescent, Begins to Stir Fed’s preferred measure reached a two-year high in the third quarter

"After being given up for dead, inflation is gradually coming back to life".  Inflation in our economies is sometimes feared by general public. Inflation levels have been below the Fed's preferred 2% target level, causing banks to openly entertain "inflation bubbling over 2%".  Furthermore, "The intellectual case for low inflation is also showing cracks", leading economists curious as to whether or not inflation rate will soon increase.

Investors continue to remain skeptical that inflation will rise above 2% percent although"many of the assumptions that underpin their skepticism are no longer warranted". Since oil prices have reached an extremely low levels, it is unlikely they will fall any further. Rates that are typically inversely related, inflation and unemployment rate are both low. Since 2007, unemployment has fallen from 10% to 5%, and looks to continue that way as Yellen speaks approvingly of allowing unemployment to fall to inflation accelerating levels. This is leading economists to fearfully think that they may no longer be related in this way. This makes the already difficult task of controlling inflation harder, and raises the bigger question... how will the fed deal with the slow economic growth rate?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-long-quiescent-begins-to-stir-1477861130

Raising US interest rates would now make recession even more likely

This article talks about how a recession might occur by the spring of 2017, and a rise in the US interest rates would increase the likelihood of an upcoming recession. Liquidity is suddenly 'drying up', indicating that the supply of money is decreasing, pushing interest rates higher.
The nominal GDP, a pure measure of the economy, has decreased from 4.2% to 2.5%, a drastic fall that cannot be funded since China has already pushed its credit limit to $30 trillion making borrowing unlikely. The tight monetary policy suggests that money supply is decreasing, pushing interest rates higher. New rules for the money market funds have caused the stock of U.S. commercial paper to shrivel by $220 billion. The three month lending rates in the offshore 'eurodollar' markets have tripled since July to 0.93%, therefore sharply tightening conditions for global finance, and limiting the chance of foreign borrowing to fund its economy.
The gross domestic income has been flat for the past quarters, and the unemployment rate has risen to 5%, after bottoming at 4.7% in May. This shows that components of the economy - nominal GDP, unemployment rates, and Gross domestic income - have decreased, indicating that a recession is likely to occur soon.
The average price level is also increasing, and the "sticky price" inflation has reached 2.6%, higher than nominal GDP growth itself. The effects of stagflation, along with decreasing Gross Domestic Income, are detrimental, and affects the GDP per-capita. It also reduces consumers affordability to purchase a good/service, decreasing the aggregate demand of households, and decreasing aggregate supply of firms, since they lay off input/labor resources to cut costs.
These changes negatively affect the economy, thereby showing that a fiscal stimulus would be an alternative to negate the effects of a recession. Decreasing taxes, and increasing government spending has its advantages on households and firms, but decreases national saving, and affects the trade balance of an economy.

Link:  business.financialpost.com/news/economy/raising-u-s-interest-rates-now-would-make-recession-even-more-likely

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/17/traders-watching-inflation-for-clues-on-growth-fed-policy.html

As the September CPI and third- quarter earnings draws inched closer to its due dates, eyes were on inflation to determine whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will increases rates.  The central bank sees it’s target of full U.S. employment close in reach while inflation numbers have already exceeded the 2% target rate, but  there’s concerns that low interest rates and the economy becoming vulnerable as a result. It’s expected that these higher inflation rates will cause a decrease in real wages as a result of a still staggering economy lacking a growth.

Applications for US unemployment aid remain at 43-year low

The number of weekly applications for unemployment benefits remained at a 43-year low since November of 1973. The unemployment rate, as of late, has been hovering around its target percent at 5%. Still, many were skeptical that the decrease in unemployment would be short lived. However, applications for benefits are typically associated with job cuts by companies. The number of applications for unemployment benefits is a useful job indicator and this suggests that we may continue to see similar unemployment rates. Many economists contribute the reduced rate to robust job gains over the past few years. The job market could be seeing the longer term effects of companies hiring more.



http://finance.yahoo.com/news/applications-us-unemployment-aid-remain-123707809.html

FINANCE PROFESSOR: 'There is good reason few economists have endorsed Trump's economic plan'

Over the course of the the presidential election race and during the last few presidential debates, Republican Party nominee, Donald Trump, has informed Americans and the rest of the world his intended plan to raise the U.S economy 3.5 to 4% and generate over 25 million new jobs. Like every plan, most of them sound good, but of course many economists are begging the question whether or not Trump's "America First" plan will actually generate the success he proclaims that it will. Included in this plan is a 45% trade tariff against China, in which judging from past experiences with similar action, many people believe that this will negatively affect the U.S economy due to retaliation from other countries. China is a major trade partner to many countries across the world, and by implementing such a tariff, this could raise and create unneeded tension between the U.S and other countries. The U.S GDP is expected be around 3% in the year 2020, which hasn't happened in the last decade. Trump seems to continuously ignore the economic growth that has taken place over the last couple of years, and it seems there are many doubting that this plan will increase our economy more than it has been, as many believe that it will actually have a negative affect.  President Herbert Hoover signed a tariff similar to the one proposed by Trump in 1930, which deepened the Great Depression. It is easy to see why people are concerned about this tariff plan, seeing that it hasn't worked in the past. Trump also plans to decrease the corporate tax rate from 35% to 15%, and once again, judging by any past actions like this give no reassurance that this would have a positive impact to the U.S economy. Economist believe that this would increase our deficit and predict the loss of millions of jobs. With the amount of taxes Trump proposes to cut, he has still not said how he plans to make up for all of that money that our government would be losing by cutting the taxes, and how he plans to offset them. It would be very risky to cut taxes by such a degree without there being a clear way to off set the money, so maybe the economist's fears are for good reason, and why few have endorsed Trump's economic plan for the U.S economy going forward.

http://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-economic-plan-a-finance-professors-opinion-2016-10

Higher Optimism and Confidence in Abu Dhabi

Despite economic fluctuations, Abu Dhabi has higher optimism and confidence among consumers and businesses for the second quarter of 2016. UAE and Abu Dhabi continue to deal with impacts of international developments greatly affecting the oil markets. This rise in confidence stems from positive expectations of future economic conditions. The attractiveness of the business environment and investment climate of the Emirate shows an upward trend in various sub-indexes.

The main issue for Abu Dhabi was fluctuating oil prices because that was the bulk of their economy. Diversifying their economy and enhancing the non-oil sectors has helped bolster the economy with the contribution of non-oil activities to Abu Dhabi's GDP at 51.5% in Q2 of 2016. Just like any other country, Abu Dhabi is affected by international, regional and local economic developments especially uncertainties facing economies of countries such as Japan, China, and UK.

Keeping positive outlook is key so that Abu Dhabi can avoid the self fulfilling prophecy.

http://0-search.ebscohost.com.dewey2.library.denison.edu/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nfh&AN=6FI860876837&site=ehost-live

Time to Buy Stocks?

Many are looking for the stock market to improve in the coming months. November has marked the start of, historically, the best six months for stock increase. Since 1950, on average, stocks have risen by 7.4% from November through April and only a dismal increase of .4% from May through October. With the stock market having little progress since December of 2014, investors are hopeful for a turnaround. It is noted that investors should not worry about a potential interest rate hike as the price increase is most likely already incorporated into the stocks price. To help investment, it appears the economy is already increasing its growth rate to around 3%, compared to the first half of 2016 where the growth rate was averaging around 1%. Despite these positive signs, there are still some doubters out there that are planning a defensive end to their investing in 2016. This is due to the decrease in corporate stock buy backs the economy is seeing recently. It is generally a good sign of optimism when a company is implementing a stock buy back program, when a company stops buying back those stocks it is not a good sign. So there is some merit to what the doubters are arguing. 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/10/28/stocks-season-for-gains/92845446/

EU, Canada sign free trade deal but battle is not over

The European Union and Canada has signed a free trade agreement this Sunday which aims to create more jobs and growth, although it still needs to clear regional parliaments in Europe to become fully enforced. The deal will eliminate tariffs on almost 99 percent of goods. The beneficiaries would include, for example, car makers or the EU textile sector, for which Canadian duties of up to 18 percent can be imposed at present. Supporters say that the deal will increase Canadian and EU trade by 20 percent and boost the EU economy by 12 billion euros ($13 billion) a year and Canada's by $9 billion.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/30/eu-canada-sign-free-trade-deal-but-battle-not-over.html

Sorry, But The Economy's Growth Spurt Isn't Going To Last

There are a lot of articles about the growth spurt U.S. economy experienced in the third quarter but it is not going to last. GDP increased at a 2.9 percent rate, the highest since 2014. The problem is that many of the growth comes from the strong demand of soybeans by China and surge in exports by the U.S. The U.S. is most likely to face competition soon in the market if the demand for soybeans remains high.

There are other factors apart from soybeans. Consumer spending cooled to 2.1 percent from 4.3 percent in the previous quarter, residential investment tumbled by 6.2 percent, equipment purchases declined by 2.7 percent and the growth rate of final sales to domestic purchasers increased by just 1.4 percent. If we exclude transitory effects or short-lived effects like the sudden demand and exports of soybeans, the actual growth rate would have been closer to 1.5 percent. Also, this plays in the election due to both candidates stating that they can do better and increase the growth rate of the economy if elected.

Link: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/sorry-but-the-economy-gdp-growth-spurt-is-not-going-to-last.html

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/10/27/spain-has-no-government-for-10-months-economy-grows-unemployment-falls-to-18-9/#7286b4a15cb8

In the article "Spain Has No Government For 10 Months- Economy Grows, Unemployment Fella to 18.9%", the state of Spain is being discussed. It is oxymoron that even though no one seems to govern the country, the one of the main problems for most countries seems to be solving it self. Left wing politician named Mariano Rajoy seems to take the praises for this blessing and everything looks like he will be elected by Parliament for second time.

Global uncertainty about economic policy is at record highs

As the U.K. responds to voters' rejection of the European Union, the U.S. presidential election comes to a head and other disputes play out across the globe, uncertainty is at a record high in 2016, according to a new index that tracks newspaper articles in over a dozen countries. Uncertainty about how policy-makers will affect the economy can lead to underinvestment by firms, reduced hiring and slowed consumer spending. In the last five years, the average global uncertainty index has been about 60 percent higher than in previous years, surpassing even the period around the 2008 housing crisis and recession. Most of the recent increases have been driven by events in other nations — most notably the Brexit decision, which caused a massive spike in Europe and was felt as far away as Japan. Brazil is facing a down economy, a spate of corruption charges and the impeachment of its president. Turkey recently blocked a coup and had its credit rating downgraded, while military conflicts, political changes and other disputes have raised policy questions in Russia, China and Syria. Those economic uncertainties can influence short-term hiring decisions, as well as long-term plans for factory construction or expansion.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/26/global-uncertainty-about-economic-policy-is-at-record-highs.html

America finally got some good economic growth

The United States economy expanded at a rate of 2.9% this year the highest growth in the last two years. "This shows that the U.S is roughly on track. It's a natural bounce back following a pretty underwhelming year so far,"says Luke Bartholomew, a fixed income investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management. The economy gained some momentum in the third quarter but before the election it is at about 1.7%. A couple of economists took a look at Donald Trumps middle skill workers wages plummet. He said that the growth in the last couple of years was "dismissal" and he called the growth that we have right now "modest". Trumps says that he wants to get growth up to 4% if he gets elected. The economist who studied this say that that is just unrealistic. American spenders continue to drive growth throughout this year and I think that will continue because we have the holidays coming up so we should see steady growth in consumption. 
http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/28/news/economy/us-economic-growth-gdp-third-quarter/

Canada and EU Sign Major Trade Deal

International trade has come under frequent and heavy fire in the past months, particularly in the US presidential election, but also globally. Despite a handful of set-backs, Canada, the United States' closest trading partner, and the EU just signed a major trade deal, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement. Although this deal does not directly affect the United States, it is a major step forward for proponents of free trade in a world increasingly full of protectionist sentiment. Some seem to consider this a precursor for a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the United States and European Union, for which plans are already in the works. The likelihood of a measure like this being realized, however, seems increasingly slim as the Transpacific Partnership continues to languish. The optimist in me imagines that this new agreement may signal the triumph of free trade advocates over its detractors, but realistically I am a little more skeptical. I imagine much of the US's trade future will depend on who we elect come November, which is not something anyone can truly predict now.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/31/business/international/canada-european-union-trade-agreement.html?ref=business

Tony Blair: U.K. may need a second vote on Brexit

Tony Blair thinks Brits may be having second thoughts about Brexit.

The former Prime Minister said the U.K. should keep its "options open" over its decision to leave the European Union until it becomes clear what kind of deal it can get. 

"If it becomes clear that this is either a deal that doesn't make it worth our while leaving, or alternatively a deal that's going to be so serious in its implications, people may decide they don't want to go," Blair told the BBC. 

He said there could be a way to reverse the June referendum result if the British people change their mind. That could take place via a vote in parliament, a general election, or even another referendum. 

"We just don't know what we're going to be offered as an alternative and once we know we'll be in a position to make a decision," he said. 

Blair is not the only one suggesting there are still options to avoid leaving the EU. At least five legal challenges against Brexit are being considered by U.K. courts. 

Blair, who campaigned against Brexit ahead of the referendum, said the vote was a "catastrophe." 

Writing in The New Europea newspaper on Friday, he said the result had to be respected but the 48% of voters who wanted to stay in the EU could win the argument as the facts of Brexit come to light. 

"We're the insurgents now," Blair wrote in an article published in The New European newspaper. "We have to prise apart the alliance which gave us Brexit."

Full article: Tony Blair: U.K. may need a second vote on Brexit