China's Rare-Earth Advantage: A Strategic Weapon Against the U.S.

China's Rare-Earth Advantage: A Strategic Weapon Against the U.S.

In the heightening economic battle between China and the United States, Beijing has deployed one of its wild cards: rare earth elements.

On April 4th, in response to U.S. tariffs, China restricted exports of seven rare earth elements to the United States. These metals, dysprosium and terbium, are two examples, are the backbone of everything from wind turbines, electric cars, to really any sophisticated mechanical systems. It is not a complete ban, but the fact that China is prepared to use its dominance as leverage in a market where it already has a grip not only on mining, but 98% of the world's processing, is a stark warning. With limited viable alternatives and few global supply chains, the U.S. is left vulnerable.

The implications could be huge. Prices are already climbing, and though there are some inventories remaining, they'll be used up in a matter of months. The civilian end of things like green energy and electric cars would get squeezed first, followed by defense. As the U.S. scrambles to fund mines in California, Brazil, and South Africa, and develop a rare-earth processing facility in Texas, it could take years to build a supply chain to rival China's. History suggests China will use this leverage selectively, but if push comes to shove, then who knows what could come next…

The Economist. (2025, April 10). China has a weapon that could hurt America: rare-earth exports. The Economist. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/04/10/china-has-a-weapon-that-could-hurt-america-rare-earth-exports

The Current State of the US Housing Market

In 2025, the U.S. housing market remains deeply unaffordable despite cooling inflation and steady wage growth. The median home price now exceeds $390,000, and mortgage rates hovering near 7% have drastically reduced buyers’ purchasing power. A $400,000 home now costs over $2,600 per month, up nearly $1,000 compared to 2020 when rates were under 3%. Limited housing supply continues to drive up prices, as many current homeowners are reluctant to sell due to low locked-in rates, and new construction is constrained by labor shortages, zoning laws, and high material costs. Renters aren’t catching a break either; national rents are up about 6% year-over-year, with some cities seeing double-digit spikes. As a result, more Americans are spending well over 30% of their income on housing. With the U.S. short nearly 3.7 million homes, experts don’t expect a housing crash, instead, they predict ongoing affordability challenges unless major policy changes increase supply and stabilize interest rates. For millions, the dream of homeownership remains just that, a dream.

Sources

https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-accelerated-4-2-in-february?

https://fortune.com/article/current-mortgage-rates-04-17-2025/?

https://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20241126-us-economy-remains-resilient-with-strong-q3-growth?

CBP says latest tariffs have generated $500 million, well below Trump’s estimate

 These tariffs that trump instituted were meant to create a lot more revenue for the United States and improve the quality of business that happens inside the states. Although this report shows only 500 million was generated which as mentioned is not close to the estimates made by President Trump. He has also claimed that we have made 2 billion per day from the tariffs but that is not reported any where. From the US Customs and Border Protection, they report that on average 250 million a day is being collected from the tariffs, even with a glitch that occurred in their system. 

    The tariffs implemented that Trump advocated for and was sure there would be positive impacts for the country has for the most part only caused pain for everyday Americans. This gain of a little over 500 million was not worth the huge drop in markets that caused damage to many American's investments. The pause only indicates further uncertainty in the administration of what these tariffs will cause. Although it will be difficult for the officials to admit they were over the top dangerous for the economy and will cause more harm than good.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/us-customs-tariffs-revenue-generated-since-april-5.html

Economy Fed Governor Waller sees tariff inflation as ‘transitory’ in ‘tush push’ comparison

 Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller believes the inflation caused by President Trump's tariffs will be short-lived, calling it "transitory." He explained that while larger tariffs could push inflation to 4-5%, it will eventually ease as the economy slows and unemployment rises. Smaller tariffs would have a smaller, 3% impact. Despite the surprise of past inflation, Waller is confident this time the effects will be temporary. He also mentioned that the Fed may lower interest rates, depending on how things play out, and emphasized the need for flexibility in handling the unpredictable economic effects of the tariffs

link-  https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/14/fed-governor-waller-sees-tariff-inflation-as-transitory-in-tush-push-comparison.html

CEO Confidence Weakening: Is a Recession Looming?

A recent survey conducted by Chief Executive revealed that over 60% of CEOs now anticipate a recession or economic downturn within the next six months. This number is up from 48% in march and comes in response to heightened market volatility and uncertainty driven by President Donald Trump's constantly changing tariff policies. Of the more than 300 CEOs surveyed, three-fourths stated that tariffs would negatively affect their businesses in 2025, and around two-thirds opposed the new levies altogether. Key metrics, including CEO sentiment on current business conditions, also dropped significantly to lows last seen around early COVID. With many CEOs forecasting double-digit cost increases and fewer than 40% expecting profit growth this year, corporate America is bracing for economic turbulence. 

This growing concern among top executives is a warning signal for the broader economy. When the leaders of major corporations start forecasting profit drops and anticipate rising costs, it suggest that consumers, workers, and investors should prepare for potential uncertainty. Tariffs in particular are creating an environment where long-term planning is becoming difficult, therefore, slowing investment and hiring decisions. If sentiment continues to slide, the economy may begin to slide as the economy fears the possibility of  a recession.

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/14/more-than-60percent-of-ceos-expect-a-recession-in-the-next-6-months-survey-says.html

American shoppers hit with tariff surcharge on receipts and feeling the impact of trade war

  On their receipts, many American shoppers are already noticing new taxes that are referred to as "tariff surcharges." Businesses are attempting to offset the high import duties, specifically the 145% charge on Chinese goods, which is why this is taking place. While some businesses charge a percentage of purchases, others are imposing straight up flat fees. The CEO of Amazon also stated that in order to cover these additional charges, third party vendors will now probably be increasing their prices. Products ranging from cars parts even down to clothes are being severely impacted by this. In my opinion this just goes to show  how bad trade policies will be impacting the general public. The fact that so many households are already experiencing the burden of inflation only proves to me that these policies are having more negative short term effects than positive ones. https://nypost.com/2025/04/13/business/american-consumers-hit-with-tariff-surcharges-amid-trade-war/