A $900 Billion Plan Would Help the Economy, but Not Fix It

There is talk about a $908 billion aid package possibly coming in the future. It is a bipartisan framework assembled by a group of senators. Economists have been calling for Congress to approve a stimulus for months. “The economic recovery, slowing for months, is in danger of going into reverse.” By no means is there any final plan for who it is distributed to, but “experts say the plan would provide relief to several battered corners of the economy. It includes nearly $300 billion for small-business aid, $180 billion for unemployed workers, and $160 billion for state, local and tribal governments.” Unfortunately, a plan this small won’t be able to help everyone who needs it, but it is a little boost. Biden said that even if Congress does reach a deal before the end of the year, he will be pushing more spending when he takes office. The package would extend the initial programs set to expire at the end of the year that expanded and extended the unemployment insurance program. Many restaurants and retailers made job cuts in November leading to the weakest monthly gain of recovery in unemployment data so far. At the moment, this plan would be more of a compromise and the goal is most likely to prevent millions of families from losing their income the week after Christmas based on the direction of the economy.

Tankersley, Jim, and Ben Casselman. A $900 Billion Plan Would Help the Economy, but Not Fix It. 4 Dec. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/12/04/business/economy/congress-stimulus-economy-impact.html

Will coming months be the "worst-case" scenario for the US?

This pandemic has been difficult for everybody, but we can now see the light at the end of the tunnel. As we are waiting for the approval and distribution of the highly anticipated vaccine, health experts are saying that the next few months will likely be extremely difficult for the country. Emergency medicine physician Dr. Leana Wen has said that the next three months are going to be "the most difficult in the public health history of this nation." Hospitals are expected to be overwhelmed in terms of the death count due to the virus. Hospitalizations also reached six figures for the first time ever this week, with now more than 100,600 Covid-19 patients nationwide. With death tolls once again rising, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine warned hospitals were not only in a crisis, but that "the crisis is worsening and getting more serious." This country's healthcare system is clearly under immense stress and pressure. Moreover, we still don't know the exact impact of Thanksgiving traveling and get togethers on the spread of the virus. On the bright side, the leading vaccine that has been developed by Pfizer is 95% effective as shown by their large scale trials. They are expected to apply for emergency use with the FDA as soon as December 10th, and distribution of the vaccine is expected to begin within a week after approval. This is a huge positive, however, people still need to be careful for the upcoming months until health experts instruct otherwise. With that being said, do you think that people will continue to follow the provided guidelines after being vaccinated, as suggested by healthcare experts? What impact do you think this vaccine will have on the economy of the country? How soon after the distribution of this vaccine do you think we will be able to return to some sense of normalcy?

Maxouris, Christina. “There's a Light at the End of the Tunnel, but Coming Months Will Be Covid-19 'Worst-Case Scenario,' Expert Says.” CNN, Cable News Network, 4 Dec. 2020, edition.cnn.com/2020/12/04/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html. 

Cyber Monday Biggest Online Shopping Day in History

 CBS News reported this week that Cyber Monday marked the largest single online shopping day in history.  Online shoppers spent $10.8 billion, up from last year's prior record of $9.4 billion.  According  to the article, consumers were spending $12 million per minute between 7:00 pm and 11:00 pm.  

Online shopping volumes were certainly influenced by the ongoing global pandemic which makes shopping from the safety of home appealing to all consumers but the robust sales numbers are an encouraging sign for the economy which is struggling to recover from coronavirus.  

Subsequent holiday spending events including small business Saturday and giving Tuesday also saw a boost in activity year over year which may be additional indication that American consumers are ready to get back to normal habits.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cyber-monday-online-shopping-record-12-million-minute/

UK economy better off due to lockdowns

 Economists from the UK believe that even with lockdowns the economy is doing better than if there were no lockdowns at all. Some experts believe that the recession could have been 50-70% worse if the lock downs had not taken place. Even with the current lockdown they are in they believe the economy is still doing well especially since educational systems are still running and were more prepared for a possible lock down. Survey that have been conducted that working from home between the lockdowns had remained steady with a third of people not returning to their place of work in-between the lock downs. They also found that nearly 97% of adults have been adhering to mask mandates. I think it will be interesting to see in the long run the effects of countries that had multiple lockdowns verse others that had 1 or none at all.

Article Link

Is Boeing a Buy?

2020 has been very rough for most companies across the country. This is mostly due to the pandemic which has caused mass panic and record high unemployment rates. One particular industry that has suffered horribly is the aerospace industry. The Boeing Company is an American multinational corporation that designs, manufactures, and sells airplanes, rotorcraft, rockets, satellites, telecommunications equipment, and missiles worldwide. The company also provides leasing and product support services. It dominates the aerospace industry with over 80% of the industries sales coming from then and one other company. Boeing's stock price peaked at $440 in March of 2019 and has since dropped down to as low as $93 but has recovered to $213 as of today. They have suffered so much because of two main factors. One of them being that their 737 max plane had technical issues and caused two accidents killing everybody on board. The other reason being the pandemic stopping almost all flying across the world. As of just recently, they have just gotten their 737 max approved to be flown again by the government so this is a great start for them. On top of this the vaccine is soon to be released to the public so this is also very beneficial for them. I personally have a price target of $400 over the next 5 years for Boeing because I don't know for certain how long it will take for society to get comfortable with flying on planes again but I believe that over that 5 years is plenty of time to do so. 

What do you all believe will happen with Boeing?

Yellen Will Lead Biden's Treasury

     As of November 23rd, president elect Joe Biden announced that Janet Yellen will serve as America's next Treasury Secretary. Ms. Yellen, former head of the Federal Reserve is clearly one of the most qualified economists for the job. Yellen, who specializes in labour economics, also serves as the president of the American Economic Association. Fortunately, the progressive left and conservative right can both see something to like in Yellen. This means that it is almost a guarantee that she will be conformed by the senate. Her biggest task in office will be to pass another stimulus bill that has been hard to do during the pandemic. Throughout the pandemic, Yellen has urged for more fiscal support to help the struggling economy. Republicans and Democrats have been unable to agree on a new stimulus bill passed in the spring, with even more of a disagreement on the size of the stimulus package. Economists believe that if anyone can break the deadlock it is Ms. Yellen.

Is Yellen a good choice for the position?

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/11/24/janet-yellen-will-lead-joe-bidens-treasury-what-does-she-stand-for

America Failed at COVID-19, but the Economy’s Okay. Why?

 While the US entered the coronavirus recession with few structural advantages, the US economy ranks near the top. The US is predicted to contract by 4.4% in 2020, while countries like Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom are expected to contract at 5.3%, 7.1%, and 10% respectively. When looking at how each country handled the pandemic, these countries outperform the US with fewer cases and a quicker reopening. Additionally, the US's rate of unemployment exceeds these countries. The success of the US economy is deemed only to the stimulus package.

 In the coronavirus recession, the US has a few structural advantages that other countries cannot rely on. One advantage is the diversified economy. Some countries rely heavily on one industry, like Spain with tourism. Additionally, the US does not rely on exports for growth, making up only 12% GDP. This compares to Japan at 18% and Germany at 47%. Some of the advantages the US has are a flexible labor market and better monetary policy implementations.

 How do you think these advantages affected the US recession compared to countries like Japan and Germany?

link: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/america-failed-covid-economys-ok-why/617223/