For Retailers, a Halloween Shock: It’s Actually Happening

Sales of Halloween costumes and decorations have been stronger than what was expected with the pandemic. People are seeing this day as the last day for the kids to have fun outdoors before winter hits. “While Mr. Berman, like many other business owners, has welcomed the volume of Halloween sales given the uncertainty of the moment, he noted that before the pandemic, 2020 was poised to be a bonanza for the holiday and party industry.” Some business owners are saying people are dressing up and decorating the house much more leading to more sales than ever before in the history of their stores. “The National Retail Federation, an industry group, expected Halloween consumer spending to hit about $8 billion this year, a decline from $8.8 billion last year, as a result of fewer Halloween parties and haunted house visits and less trick-or-treating. But enthusiasm around costumes and decorations has persisted.” Halloween sales are higher than anyone could have ever expected, but It is nice to see strong sales considering this crazy year for retailers. 

Do you think that Halloween fun will get too chaotic and we will see a rapid increase in cases to come? Do you think a significant increase in cases will lead to a shutdown like in France? Increased sales will help our economy now, but do you see it coming back on us with a shutdown?

Maheshwari, Sapna, and Gillian Friedman. “Get Your Hand Sanitizer Costume. Halloween Is Still Happening.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 29 Oct. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/business/halloween-costumes-decorations-sales.html. 

Record GDP won't mean much to investors

Even though the economy is experiencing record breaking GDP growth, it seems that this has not done much for investor confidence. The main reason that the stock market is still seeing some decline is due to many investors terrified of the economy falling back into a recession and out of the recovery. These investors definitely have a lot of ground to be concerned about due to both North America and European covid cases getting out of control again. Especially with the two biggest economies in the European Union (France and Germany) are both enforcing stroger restrictions like with France shutting down all non-essential business and restaurants for 4 weeks and with Germany doing the same and advising citizens to stay inside. These harsh restrictions are projected to have France's GDP drop by  as much as 4 percent and Germany's GDP is expected to drop by one. With all of this happening it is no surprise that inventories are having a hard time feeling safe to invest their money when at a moment's notice we can see the economy shut down again and with how many new cases the US is getting it would not surprise many if the US imposed restrictions much like Germany and France. Thanks to the recorded growth many companies are increasing their dividends payments and buybacks. This shows that the companies are not that worried about receiving funding in the future.

With so many different regulations being presented by a number of different countries it is no wonder many people are not wanting to invest during this uncertain time. What do you think could help give investors more confidence to invest?

 https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/29/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

Q3 Sees Large GDP Rebound

The U.S. economy made up significant ground in Q3 in what was termed as the quarter of re-opening. Reports have shown that GDP likely grew around 7.4% which is a record setting rate for one quarter. However, it is clear this rate will not continue. COVID cases are at a new high and there is much uncertainty with the election. The market has seen massive selloffs the last few days as well, and tech earnings were disappointing. There is still much confusion in regard to the fiscal stimulus and especially the vaccine, which was promised by the election by President Trump.

Most economists believe the economy will continue to grow as we re-open, but at a much milder rate. What do you think GDP growth and economic activity will be like in Q4?

https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202010295208/us-economy-likely-recovered-significant-ground-in-third-quarter-gdp-rebound

Economic growth will slow in Q4

 This year has been unexpected to say the least. Many Americans' lives have been jeopardized by the pandemic similar to many businesses that have likewise been jeopardized. One key thing our government did to try and cushion the blow of the pandemic was the release of the "stimulus checks". The stimulus checks, for the most part, did exactly what the name entails: it stimulated economic growth. However, JPMorgan Asset Management’s David Kelly calls this growth a "steroid kind of recovery" basically meaning that the economic growth will slow during quarter four of 2020. After a recession, economies can see sharp V-Shaped recovery whereas the United States has seen an "interrupted V-Shape recovery" or "half of V" (Kelly, 2020). Basically, the stimulus was a "shot in the arm" for the United States by temporarily fixing the problem. Economic growth is now slowing down due to the absence of a second stimulus. Kelly, in response, believes there will be a second stimulus package after the November elections to bolster economic growth. 

Weizent. “Economic Recovery Could Slow in Q4 after 'Steroid of Fiscal Stimulus' Fades, JPMorgan Asset Management Says.” CNBC, CNBC, 22 Oct. 2020, www.cnbc.com/2020/10/22/jpmorgan-asset-management-on-economic-recovery-us-stimulus-talks.html. 

Airlines will struggle long after it is safe to fly again

     The airline industry has been one of the hardest hit during the COVID-19 pandemic. United States airlines collectively lost $12 billion in the second quarter alone. The 5 largest airlines have already reported losses of $8.9 billion for the third quarter. History is not on the airlines side when it comes to recovering from the pandemic. After the Great Recession ended in 2009, it took five years for passenger traffic to recover. Even after the small recession in 2000 it took four years for passenger traffic to hit pre-recession levels. Historically, it takes even longer for business travel to recover which is one of the most depended on sectors for airlines. With millions of people losing their jobs, people are less likely to take any vacations. For struggling businesses, air travel will be the last thing on their mind until they can recover their losses. It is unknown how long it will take for air traffic to recover.  Airlines are also worried about a permanent impact on travel. With so many business successfully using video calls for conferences, there is the possibility that some travel will be unnecessary in the future. The CEO of Delta believes that this drop could be up to 20% for the next few years. With no set time of the pandemic ending, airlines worry that every day will continue to hurt them more and more.

when do you think the airline industry will recover?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/27/economy/airlines-pandemic-recession-impact/index.html

Unemployment Claims Are Down, but Many Workers Lower Expectations

 Weekly unemployment claims are decreasing, but there is still a long way to go to reach economic recovery. There are still 757,000 unemployment claims as well as 345,000 claims for the federal jobless program; created to provide aid to certain groups of people during the pandemic. With no increase in current federal aid to those hit hard by the pandemic, there may be a decrease in consumer confidence. Many people have been out of work for 7+ months which exceeds the 6 month limitation on unemployed insurance programs. Thankfully, there are still some programs in place by the government to provide excess aid due to the continuing pandemic. While numbers of unemployment claims are decreasing, it may not be due to so many returning to jobs but that people are no longer fitting the criteria and moving into a longer term unemployment status. The current job finding rate is low and continuing to decrease, causing further permanent unemployment problems. The continuation of worsening opportunities is becoming very discouraging to those looking for work. With the presidential election looming, many are taking the experiences of the last few months into account and seem to be favoring Joe Biden. This could, however, be related to the fact that most of the people who lost their jobs are considered to be minorities and were already favoring Biden. Many factors are currently at work that will affect the election and, in turn, the future economy. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/business/economy/unemployment-claims.html

Senate Confirms New Supreme Court Justice

The Senate officially confirmed Amy Coney Barrett’s appointment to the Supreme Court on Monday, October 26. Barrett is to take the seat of the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Her confirmation makes her the Supreme Court’s youngest justice, at age 48, and the first justice to be a mother of school-aged children. Barrett is conservative, solidifying a 6-3 conservative majority on the high court, and given her age, is likely to affect the skew for decades to come. 

One of the first cases Barrett will consider as a Supreme Court Justice is the examination of whether the Affordable Cares Act should be overturned. Part of this examination is whether a change to the individual mandate, the tax Americans had to pay for not getting health insurance, would affect the validity of the entire law. Other upcoming cases she will be apart of will include abortion rights (undo Roe v. Wade), expansion of the interpretation of the Second Amendment, and the upcoming election outcome, if a case arises, pending she does not rescue herself from any of these cases. 

The vote was a narrow 52-48 vote, with all but one Republican senator, Susan Collins (R-ME), voting in favor of her confirmation. No Democrats voted in favor of Barrett’s appointment. Collins stated her reasoning for opposing Barrett’s appointment was due to disagreement with the process used for her nomination (as did Democrats, among other reasons). In 2016, Senate Republicans withheld consideration of a supreme court nominee until after the general election, insisting that the American people, through their votes, should have a voice in the decision-making process. For Barrett, however, the Republicans, with less than two months to go until the election, expedited Barrett’s confirmation. 

What impact do you think her appointment will have on the economy, perhaps specifically related to the ACA or other upcoming cases? What impact do you think Barrett’s appointment will have on the upcoming election? 

https://www.vox.com/2020/10/26/21529619/amy-coney-barrett-confirmed-supreme-court

COVID Taking The Work Force Back To The 1960s

Even though some new reports have said that the unemployment rate is going down, it has recently been stated that women are starting to leave the work force at a shocking rate due to COIVD. Between August and September 865,000 women dropped out of the work force whereas only 216,000 men dropped from the work force- that's almost four times the rate as men. COVID has forced many people to stay home including children who are either attending school virtually or are not attending school at all due to some schools not reopening. Even thought men maybe staying home in order to help out around the house, many women feel pressured to choose between taking care of their family or going (back) to work. Therefore, many of them end up leaving the work force. Some people may be thinking that women leaving the work force is fine and that it won't harshly affect the economy; however, women make up almost 50% of the work force. How do you think this will affect the economy overall?

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/10/02/919517914/enough-already-multiple-demands-causing-women-to-abandon-workforce

"What would delayed election results mean for the economy?

 https://www.marketplace.org/2020/10/22/what-would-delayed-election-results-mean-for-the-economy/

Everyone is anxious about the election. Economists are especially nervous with the amount of uncertainty currently in the US with  the pandemic worsening, small businesses closing, families losing income, and firms wary of investing in capital and labor.  The uncertainty of such a messy election year has caused some people to believe that we might not know the results of the election until the following day.  With the country in such a vulnerable place, action needs to be taken quickly to help the American people and our economy.

Currently, the Trump administration is fighting another stimulus package. However, our people may need it now.  It is presumed that the current administration is holding off until the results of the election are released.  Depending on the outcome of the election, we may not see a stimulus package until Januray or February. If or when we get another stimulus package, will we be too far gone and will it help those who need it most? Do you think our economy can withstand the strife and uncertainty for much longer?