NFL Draft and World Cup making an Impact

     Sports in and out of season can have big impacts on the economy anywhere in the world. The NFL and the FIFA World Cup could help Kansas City, Missouri by bringing in more than 100 million dollars and could get up to more than 500 million dollars. The amount of money brought in will depend solely on how many games will be played at the Chiefs stadium, Arrowhead Stadium.

    Although the NFL is out of season, the NFL draft will have a big role in determining how much money brought in. The NFL draft is estimated to have had around 350,000 visitors to Kansas City with other activities that occur during the week as well. This brings in money to hotels, restaurants, stores, transportation services, and general business spending of the Draft. The total estimated money to be brought in would be just about 101 million dollars throughout the week and will generate over 10 million dollars in direct tax receipts to Kansas City. The FIFA World Cup could generate even more money depending on the number of games played, the dollar amounts included anywhere from 160 million to 620 million dollars. 

    The NFL Draft and the FIFA World Cup will mostly generate a lot of economic activity and will draw a lot of attention for future events. With the Kansas City, Chiefs already being a hot attraction due to the Super Bowl Champions, we will see what else will be hosted next in Kansas City. Depending on how many teams select Arrowhead Stadium to host their games and how far they go in their tournament can also be another big factor in future economic activity in Kansas City.

NFL Draft, World Cup each expected to generate $100M-plus in economic impact (kshb.com)

JP Morgan Chase takes over First Republic Bank

 Today, JP Morgan Chase took over First Republic Bank after an unsuccessful attempt to keep FRB open. Although the banking sector's problems are not solved yet, this buyout destabilized a broad collapse. With the Fed presumably increasing the interest rates by a quarter percentage point again, financial stability runs a big risk. Banks will start implementing stricter credit conditions to minimize risk, which will affect consumption and small and medium-sized businesses. Policymakers believe that this is the early stage of chronic banking stress, with many small and mid-size banks looking to avoid SVB's and FRB's fallouts. 

This will put pressure on the Fed to halt their interest rate hikes even though inflation is high. Labor Department's non-farm payroll is expected to report a 180,000 growth for April, down from 260,000 in March. Wage reports and their impact on inflation will be key for the Fed to take less aggressive policies, in the event of softening wages. 

On the verge of a recession and a potentially bigger banking crisis, what are some measures that day-to-day citizens can take to diversify risk if their money is presumably not safe? 

 https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/01/the-first-republic-deal-has-come-at-a-crucial-point-for-the-markets-and-economy.html

Fake Job Listings Problem for Labor Market

Federal numbers indicate a declining but still historically robust job market. According to a data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of job opportunities has decreased to its lowest level since May 2021. However, the number of openings and employee resignations is higher than it was before the pandemic.

It appears that not all job postings are linked to open positions. According to the Labor Department, there were 10.8 million job opportunities in January, indicating that the labor market is still strong. Companies are experiencing budgetary pressures at the same time, and some are reducing recruiting. Despite businesses continuing to post jobs, recruiters claim that many positions remain unfilled.

The amount of monthly job postings published by the government has traditionally been met with suspicion by economists. Numerous free job-listing tools have made it much simpler to post a position, and the rise in remote work during the pandemic has driven up the numbers even further, prompting some businesses to duplicate listings online.

Hiring supervisors are aware of this. In a poll conducted last summer of more than 1,000 recruiting managers, 27% said they had job advertising up for more than four months. According to Clarify Capital, the small-business loan provider that sponsored the poll, over half of those who admitted to advertising job openings that they weren't actively seeking to fill did so to give the idea that the firm was expanding. A third of the managers who admitted to posting job openings they weren't actively looking to fill claimed they did it to appease overburdened staff members.

Other justifications given by recruiting managers for maintaining positions included keeping a pool of candidates on hand in case an employee departs or just in case a "irresistible" applicant applies.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/that-plum-job-listing-may-just-be-a-ghost-3aafc794

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/job-openings-fake-listings-ads-federal-reserve-jolts/

"South Korea's Intermediate Goods Exports on the Decline"

South Korea has recorded its first quarter level of exports, and they've shared that exports from the country has decreased by 12.6 percent. The biggest contributor to this decrease was an overall decrease in intermediate goods exports to China, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Hong Kong. 

The first quarter exports totaled to $151.5 billion, with imports totaling to $174 billion--a year-on-year decrease of 2.2 percent. Additionally, SK's trade deficit was $12.5 billion in January, $5.2 billion in February, $4.6 billion in March, and $4.1 billion for the first 20 days of April. 

The cause of SK's complacent performance has been due to a decrease in semiconductor exports to the respective countries. However, the boom in the semiconductor industry has been declining and low competitiveness in levels of many other sectors are emerging as a serous problem. 

Article link: http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=113575

Iran fails to Release News on Inflation

Iran is currently undergoing an economic crisis which caused them to keep their most recent inflation data away from the public. This financial crisis has lasted approximately two months and is the result of "fueling accusations" from other parts of the world. These accusations and the actions of Iran have many convinced that current inflation rates are the highest they've ever been which would cause a further crisis and panic in the country if proven true. The last known inflation rate in Iran is 47.7 per cent which is only 1.3 per cent inflation away from the record and this was the figure before the economic crisis had started. This 49 per cent inflation rate was in 1996, almost 25 years ago.

Ebrahim Raisi, the president of Iran, has promised a multitude of economic changes in Iran which haven't been completed which is thought to be another reason for the economic crisis. Many simple items such as chicken and other daily goods have shot up in price in the last few years and the effects of these shoot-ups seem to be firing back at the government all at once, despite the government attempting to help the economy by replacing key people in office such as the vice president of budget affairs. With these prices continuing to go up many are concerned for not only themselves but the future of the younger generations as the problems seem to only be getting worse inflation-wise in Iran. 

Article: https://www.ft.com/content/c86fccb4-f56e-43b7-a596-29c036cb4ec1

JOLTS Survey - Job Openings Fall

In the JOLTS survey posted with data for February of 2023, it is reported that job openings were reported at below ten million for the first time in over 20 years. Available job postings totaled at 9.33 million in the February data. Prior to the newest release the job openings to available worked ratio was 2 to 1. As the economy is slowing it is projected that this number will continue to decrease because within sectors firms will likely have less job postings, and workers will be more likely to stay at current positions instead of searching for new job placements. This is especially interesting because unemployment has stayed steady around 3.6%. Overall, the JOLTS survey postings along with unemployment data will be a valuable resource for gauging economic health (especially in the United States) for the rest of 2023. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/04/jolts-february-2023-.html

Wall Street wants clarity from Fed meeting and jobs data

 Inflation in the last week has been a roller coaster of changes. the FED's favorite inflation gauge rose 4.2% for the last 12 months, ending in March. It is down from a previous 5.1% which is suggesting that the central's bank's plan to increase interest rates is to help stabilize prices. Good News is the compensation for the US workers grew in the first 3 months of the year, according to the Employment Cost Index (ECI). With the increase of labor costs, the central bank is watching reports of inflation closely as high labor costs is one of the causes for it's increase. What businesses tend to do is raise the amount you can get paid to hire and maintain employees which can lead to raising prices in goods and services. Even though interest rates are at a high, they began showing signs of cooling in march which suggests that the FED's mandate to stabilize prices and keep unemployment rates low could be more complex than intended. 

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/30/business/stocks-week-ahead/index.html

China Economic Growth

 China's economy has been growing at a very impressive rate after easing up pandemic restrictions. This quarter GDP grew by 4.5%. Retail sales have gone up to 10.6%. China's economy is expected to grow by 6% by the end of the year. Analysts say that inflation is very low in China as compared to its global peers. They expect more government spending with a stimulus package later on this year.  They will likely be pushing forward infrastructure investments, which will include building metro lines and increasing the number of 5G towers.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/chinas-economy-grew-45-first-quarter-fastest-year-rcna80163

A recession is coming — and stock markets won’t come through it unscathed

 https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/21/a-recession-is-coming-and-equity-markets-may-incur-some-pain-strategist-says.html

As a recession is coming our way, economists are saying that the stock markets will be hit quite hard. With people having high hopes that it won't be as bad as they think, economists are here to spread the news that it probably will be bad, and worse than we think. They said "economic data suggests a recession is coming, according to the chief executive of financial advisory firm Longview Economics, and investors may need to prepare for some pain in the stock market." The Leading Economic Index fell by 1.2%, which is the lowest we have seen since 2020. It is not looking good, but another thing they made sure to add to this article was that they have seen strength in the labor market, as well as consumer spending. 

Sports Industry In 2023

    The sporting goods industry is facing a lot of challenges, including changing consumer behavior, increased competition, demographic shifts, and supply chain disruptions. These companies need to build agility and flexibility into their operations, invest in digital capabilities, and develop new revenue streams. Additionally, these companies have a need for sustainability and social responsibility in the industry. Sustainability and social responsibility are big with investors and stake holders. Companies that prioritize these issues are likely to have a competitive advantage in the market. Overall, sporting goods industry need to be proactive and adaptable to position themselves for long-term success.

McKinsey & Company. (2018, September). Sporting Goods 2023: The Need for Resilience in a World in Disarray. Retrieved from https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/sporting-goods-2023-the-need-for-resilience-in-a-world-in-disarray.

FED Response to Bank Failures

     After the turmoil in the banking industry earlier in the year, the FED has released a 114 page report, in it accepting some of the blame for the failure, stating that FED supervisors failed to grasp the extent of the problems at Silicon Valley Bank in a timely manner, and when problems were finally noticed, the FED failed to ensure the problems were fixed. The FED also links to changes in 2019 that exempted most banks from strict scrutiny as partly responsible. In addition, the FED has now called on for more regulations, as Michael Barr, the Fed's vice chair for supervision, who led the review, states "Following Silicon Valley Bank's failure, we must strengthen the Federal Reserve's supervision and regulation, based on what we have learned," and this sentiment was echoed by FED chairman, Jerome Powell, who responded to the report by stating, "I welcome this thorough and self-critical report on Federal Reserve supervision from Vice Chair Barr... I agree with and support his recommendations to address our rules and supervisory practices, and I am confident they will lead to a stronger and more resilient banking system." Vice Chair Barr believes there were unique circumstances surrounding SVB that caused it to fail, but the article notes that the speed of the bank run, with customers attempting to withdraw almost $140 billion in two days, is something the FED should take into account for the future, as well as noting the large ripple effects caused by SVBs trouble, with confidence in the entire banking industry being affected. 

source: https://www.npr.org/2023/04/28/1172715215/silicon-valley-bank-postmortem-federal-reserve-fdic-signature-bank