Trump Pressed Australian Leader to Help Barr Investigate Mueller Inquiry’s Origins

This article brings up another occurrence of Trump trying to press other countries with what some may say are for personal gain while using US political tools. While that is a subject of debate, the US economy is already experiencing tumultuous times in regards to the trade war. These all add to a long list in what is a stressful time in the international economy. What does this along with potential impeachment mean for consumer confidence in the US as well as investor confidence worldwide? What policies could be put in place in order to stem the tide against all of these fluctuations?


Link to Article: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/30/us/politics/trump-australia-barr-mueller.html?fallback=0&recId=1RbjAPi6ksAcxbjCKZIHNYDFONB&locked=0&geoContinent=NA&geoRegion=OH&recAlloc=top_conversion&geoCountry=US&blockId=most-popular&imp_id=859649260&action=click&module=Most%20Popular&pgtype=Homepage

Viral Infection in Horses affecting Quarter Horse Congress Turnout

Quite a few horses have been banned from the AQHA horse show, Congress, for Vasicular Stomatitis, which is a highly infectious virus that is transferable to humans. The show is the largest single breed horse show in the world,  and has a very large amount of income for the state of Ohio, so, this virus, though not an immediate threat, may pose a financial risk to the show. This exhibits the economic idea of resilience; that is, the ability for an economic entity to react and deal with external setbacks to economic growth; or the possible lack thereof in this case, and we shall see how the virus affects the turnout to the show.

https://www.13abc.com/content/news/Horses-from-certain-areas-banned-from-American-Quarter-Horse-Congress-due-to-viral-illness-559834101.html

Tesla violated labor laws with Elon Musk tweet, judge rules

On Friday, a U.S. judge found Tesla guilty of labor violations that interfered with union organization attempts by employees in 2017 and 2018. Among unlawful actions was a threatening tweet by Musk, who must now hold a meeting with California assembly plant workers explaining the decision and affirming their rights.

US business investment much weaker in the second quarter than previously estimated

In its third reading of the second quarter GDP it was estimated that business investment declined at a 1.0% annualized rate, which is the steepest decline since 2015. This could be as a result of the recent trade war we are in. This can also be added to the number of signs we've seen pointing to a possible recession.

Impeachment process could be enough to send the economy into a recession

With Pelosi following through on the impeachment process of President Trump, it sent the market into a free fall. With trade tensions continuing on and now a country uneasy about whether or not our president will remain in office, it could be enough to pop this economic bubble and send us into a recession. Politics aside, if the investigation finds any wrongdoing, our President will be impeached. Do you think this is enough to send the economy into a free fall? If not, where is our safety net, because the Fed used up the weapon of cutting interest rates and printing money already.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/09/30/trump-impeachment-american-economy-011053

Trump's Plan to Restrict U.S.-China Investment

According to reports, the White House may be looking to restrict capital flows into China and try to limit Chinese companies from trading on U.S. exchanges. Trump said in May that "Trade wars are good, and easy to win." Now the White House feels the need to widen the struggle with China from a dispute into a whole new arena involving potential capital controls. This comes at a sensitive time for U.S. and China relations due to the two countries seeking a resolution in Washington later in the month with a Chinese delegation coming to talk about the trade dispute. Monday will be the last chance for Chinese investors to react to the new risk before the 5-day market closure until October 8th.

trade policies and the retaliatory effects on American agriculture

This article takes a look at how the new trade policies are affecting business owners. Christopher Gribbs, a soybean farmer from Ohio gives his personal reasoning on why he won't be voting for president trump in the 2020 election after voting for him in 2016. Do you think by not voting for Donald Trump, Gribbs is protecting his business, or is there more to the story? 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/08/i-wont-be-voting-for-the-president-again-says-ohio-farmer.html

The United Auto Workers Still On Strike

After 11 days and still no deal made, members of the United Auto Workers are still on strike at General Motors factories across the country. It has been recorded as the longest walkout at GM since 1970. It has been found that union membership and power has been increasingly on the decline in the past 30 to 40 years, but still companies have a legal obligation to bargain in good faith with union members. With more work being sent abroad, foreign owned car plants in the South have turned back unionization efforts.

Will unions become obsolete in the near future? If so, what effect will that have on real wages of workers?

SpaceX's Mars Rocket Will be Cheaper than Expected

Elon Musk announced recently that the cost of SpaceX's mars rocket will likely cost much less than he expected. Earlier reports led Musk to believe that one rocket would cost roughly 10 billion dollars to be sent to Mars, however he now believes this number is closer to 2 billion. Obviously, this could have monumental effects on the future of human civilization on earth, but I also believe this could have significant macroeconomic effects now. When there is a technological breakthrough people are more likely to invest their money, this would reduce savings and there would be a chain reaction on global interest rates.

Do you believe that this announcement could be meaningful enough that investment levels increase enough to have serious economic effects?
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/29/business/elon-musk-spacex-mars-starship-cost/index.html

U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls in September

     The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 125.1 this month from 134.2 in August. Originally, economists had predicted the CCI to be 133.5 this month, so this was an unexpected drop. From an optimistic standpoint, 125.1 is still a very good CCI. However, from a slightly more pessimistic standpoint, that's a drop of 6.8% in a single month. This drop is assumed to come from consumer fears over the ongoing trade war with China. The economic growth the U.S. has seen since the 2008 Recession has mostly been driven by consumption. As consumer confidence takes a hit, we may see the economy continue to slow down as it has been for the past few months. While even more tariffs on Chinese goods have been announced, consumer confidence may begin to fall even further as consumers grow more and more wary. Perhaps even more concerning is the Conference Board survey's labor market differential, which is data on respondent's views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get. This fell to 33.2 this month from 38.3 in July. This data is often closely correlated to the unemployment rate. Several other employment measures showed that consumers are much less confident in the labor market than they were in previous months.
     The long-running trade war with China is starting to weigh heavily on the minds of American consumers. Consumer confidence is fragile and the endless tariffs are starting to take their effect on the level of confidence. While President Trump says that the U.S. will not accept a bad deal for the American people, it appears as though the continued conflict is having more of an adverse impact than previously assumed.



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-consumer-confidence-falls-in-september-trade-fears-dominate-idUSKBN1W9297

U.K. Experience Suggests an Inverted Yield Curve Isn’t All Gloom and Doom

This article states how the inverted yield curve may not be as bad as it seems based off of the U.K. economic history. During the mid and late 1980s recessions hit elsewhere including Russia and the U.S. but the economy in the U.K. remained strong. In 2001, external forces such as foreign central banks cutting rates, sending their bond yields down made investors look to the U.K. where rates were higher. Their buying weighed in on gilt yields which inverted the yield curve. These trends are starting to be seen in the United States. With yields in Europe already in record low or even negative territory before the recession hits, investors may be buying U.S. treasurys for their better returns because European bonds can no longer act as a hedge against falling equity prices.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-experience-suggests-an-inverted-yield-curve-isnt-all-gloom-and-doom-11569762002

Politics and Trade Threaten the Economy

It seems that the US is facing a lot of us and downs recently in terms of the strength of the economy. Experts are saying that the roller coaster we've been on recently is concerning. With ongoing trade 'negotiations' with China, constant political headlines, and problems arising in the Middle East, business confidence and comfort seems to be very much up in the air. Overall weakness around the globe may threaten to weaken the US as well. So if the US led global trade network continues to stall, then a domino-effect could trickle downward, causing a global economic downturn.

What can the US do to prevent such an instance? Work to quickly come to an agreement with China?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-barkin/roller-coaster-of-politics-and-trade-threaten-economy-feds-barkin-idUSKBN1WB2VI

American lower class.

This article was written to highlight the growing disparity between lower middle and upper classes in the United states.  Over the past few decades the median incomes for each group has dis-proportionally grown, with upper class growing the most.  As this income gap increases more Americans fall out of the shrinking middle class and move closer to low income.  This will have a dramatic effect on Americas mainly consumer driven economy as lower earners have a much lower percentage of disposable income to be spending.  While many have ideas as to solutions to the trend there is much debate over the actual method to take. 







https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/how-much-the-american-lower-class-earns.html

Imeaching Trump is Good for Economy

Not to any surprise, Donald Trump is in the News again. This time however, the reasoning for this is he is facing impeachment for having Ukraine look into Joe Biden's prior Vice-President administration looking for details to lower his campaign status. A big concern of many is how the economy will react if he is in fact impeached. Some feel that the economy will go into turmoil over the possible instability which could occur as a result. Others, such as Paul Krugman, think the impeachment would actually be good for the economy. Thus far, Trump's policies have been beneficial for the upper-class. He argues if Trump is impeached it would allow for policies to be paused so that the true economists are able to set policies that are based off of economic policy. Instead of how it is currently, where educated individuals are being degraded by the President. An example would be the Agriculture Department's Economic Research Service which has had their report has been lesser since 2017 when they were forced to move to Kansas from Washington prompting multiple resignations of people wanting to stay in Washington. If Trump were to be removed this department would likely be moved back and their report would be more significant again. Implications such as this, as well as the removal of his confused policies effect on the economy would allow for our economy to continue to prosper based off of educated decisions form professionals understanding the effects of their policy recommendations.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/26/opinion/trump-economy.html?module=inline

Why the Fed lowered interest rates again

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday lowered interest rates for the second time this year, as it tries to guard the United States economy against trade-related uncertainty and slowing global growth. The central bank cut borrowing rates in late July for the first time since the financial crisis. The moves are part of an effort to keep borrowing cheap, credit widely available and business and consumers confident.

The global economy is slowing as manufacturing activity weakens, and political tensions, including President Trumps trade war with China, are creating uncertainty for businesses. That is slowing down investment, which could hold back growth in the future. However, for now the consumers are powering the economy ahead. Unemployment is low, wages are rising and households are spending. But surveys in recent months have shown consumer sentiment may be wavering. We know consumers fuel about 70 percent of the economy.

With this rate, do you think we should expect another reduction this year?



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/18/business/economy/fed-second-rate-cut.html

Consumers are really starting to worry about the trade war

The trade war between the U.S and China has been cited as a negative factor weighing on the economy according to a study done at the University of Michigan. “Trade policies have had the greatest negative impact on consumers, with a near record one-third of all consumers negatively mentioning trade policies in September when asked to explain in their own words the factors underlying their economic expectations.” Since the U.S and China are set to meet again on October 10th to talk about the trade war, hopefully this will settle some of the uncertainty that consumers are having. Will this trade war ever come to an end and how will it continue to affect our economy?

The White-Collar Job Apocalypse That Didn’t Happen

This article states that there was originally a concern that office jobs in the United States would follow factory jobs by moving overseas, however, new research is suggesting otherwise. It claims that the jobs may just be moving to different parts of the country. Globalization has severely damaged American manufacturing and recently, economists were warning those who were in a white collar jobs, that offshoring may occur to them as well. Globalization is scary, especially for the employees. It comes with many new possible issues to deal with. If they have a family, will they move their entire family? Will they need to learn a new language to live in a new country across the world? How will they tell their spouse and children? Companies consider doing this in order to pay their workers less than what they already do in the United States.

Many companies started to realize the issues with moving across the country. They noticed that the language barrier, time differences, and legal hurdles are sometimes not worth the move in the long run. Instead, those companies started looking at different places to go within the country that would be less expensive. My question is, why not go somewhere where most people know a common language and where tax laws are more lenient instead of staying within the country?

Trump warns of stock market crash as he rails against impeachment

On Thursday, as impeachment concerns grew, Trump claimed that the stock market would crash. Earlier in the week, the market saw loses as Nancy Pelosi again raised the question of impeachment in regards to current events regarding Trump's conversation with the Ukrainian President. Trump asked "Do you think it was luck that got us to the best Stock Market and Economy in our history. It wasn’t!” Trump has consistently taken credit for the market's good conditions over his term, but my question is how much of the current climate can be attributed to Trump and his policies? Additionally, if he is impeached how do you think the market would react. Concerning the second question I believe the market would react poorly but not because the market guru Trump left office but more just due to the lack of polictical stability and future worries.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-warns-of-stock-market-crash-as-he-rails-against-impeachment-2019-09-26?mod=economy-politics

How Governments Can Juice Economic Growth

     So this article begins by stating that the United States economy was growing at a much slower rate than usual and is forecasted to continue on this downward sloping trend. since the interest rates are so low and the inflation is also low the fed is very limited in the fiscal policy options that they could undergo. people are forecasting the United States to become a naturally slow growing economy in the near future. They have offered four different ways that they can fix the economy which are as follows, Tax structure, Tax base, Agricultural subsidiaries, and infrastructure. do you think that it is fair for this to be assumed? I think that it is way easier said than done, if it was easy to be done, I think that every economy would be perfectly ran if it was really easy to propose these fiscal policies.


https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/governments-increase-global-growth

How solid is the US jobs market?

As September is rolling to an end, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will be  releasing their report on how the jobs market fared during this past month. Investors and policy makers will find this much anticipated data very useful when predicting on wether or not the the economy remains in good or if its starting to take a turn for the worst due to the trade war. In August, jobs growth slowed to its weakest level in three months. Non-Farm payrolls rose by 130,000, way below the expected target of 158,000. The report will becoming out on Friday so I'm curious to see what the data tells us.

Trade War Shows China's No Longer A Developing Nation

In President Trump's ongoing trade war, China's economy has evolved significantly since the beginning of this century. U.S exports to China have significantly increased in value, in a change of the less traditional goods they one imported. In 2019 47% of exports were by air while 53% were by the ocean, this is due in part to the large decrease in U.S exports to China by water and increase of Air transportation of products. These Accelerated Changes may have unexpected implications such as : airports and seaport revenue changes since they are both used by China, and since China has such a large part in our trade economy. This also may affect the public opinion of some representatives and senators, who are already outclassed by an overwhelming amount of lobbyists. Do you think China has this much of an impact on the U.S?



https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenroberts/2019/09/29/china-no-longer-a-developing-nation-as-one-look-at-us-exports-during-trade-war-clearly-shows/#5607c3ea7135

Should we switch back to the gold standard?

In 1933, the U.S. abandoned the gold standard domestically, and in 1971, they completely severed the connection between gold and the dollar internationally as well. Recently, many economists have proposed we go back to the gold standard because it limits credit and eliminates seignorage which can contribute to hyperinflation. Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, thinks this is not a great idea. He believes going back to the gold standard will limit the impact of the Fed on the economy. Sure there would be little to no inflation and lack of debt, but the Fed would not be able to control certain macro economic factors such as the the unemployment rate or interests rates. It is ultimately interesting that after 86 years this is still being discussed, indicating there may be some merit.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/10/feds-powell-explains-why-a-return-to-the-gold-standard-would-be-so-damaging-to-the-economy.html

Saudi Arabia’s Investment in India

Saudi Arabia is looking to invest about 100 billion in India. The areas targeted for this investment include refining petrochemicals, infrastructure, agriculture, minerals and mining, and the energy sector. This investment will result in the expansion of trade and business between these two countries. Aramco Saudi’s biggest giant in oil has proposed a partnership with the Reliance industry in India to grow the energy ties between these two countries. In Saudi’s Vision 2030, Saudi plans to diversify its economy while reducing its dependence on petroleum products.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/saudi-arabia-to-invest-usd-100-billion-in-india/articleshow/71358978.cms

China Plans to step up efforts to lift economy

During the midst of China's ongoing trade war with the United States, their economy is experiencing slowing economic growth. As the government is aware of the notable lack in progress, they plan on using more monetary policies to offset the impacts of the trade war. These policies wish to raise liquidity in the banking sector for domestic stimulation. Will the future policies more impact domestic affairs or will they be more international? China's conflicting situation may cause economic retaliation with tariffs and other limiting factors. With the goal of increasing economic growth, China's role in international affairs may alter future confrontation.

China plans to step up efforts to lift economy

Trade Deficit

According to the news article, the trade deficit is widening. It's gone up 0.5% as compared to the previous month of August. United States consumers are buying more goods from abroad than the United States as a country is exporting out of the country. 

The trade deficit widened to $72.8 billion dollars which were less than the $74 billion predicted by economists. Although exports have increased at a faster rate, imports have also increased too. The exports have been driven by the sale of véhicules and industrial goods whiles imports are being driven by consumer goods. 

The trade deficit is even hurting more because of restrictions and tariffs on

Chinese imports. Peaceful trade talks seem on the way and it will benefit both economies largely.