http://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2014/08/football-transfers
In the article How to spend £75m, Game Theory Sports
investigates the history of soccer transfers. Last summer the Premier League
saw the third most expensive transaction in soccer history. Liverpool, who was
predicted to place fifth in the league, dealt superstar Luis Suarez to
Barcelona for £75 million, which is equivalent to $124 million. The contract
for the Suarez ranks in the top 50 most lucrative contracts of all time. The
two footballers that have bigger contracts than Suarez are Lionel Messi from
Barcelona and Gareth Bale from Real Madrid.
In the past, it
has been difficult for Premier League teams to replace their most valuable and
fittingly their most expensive players. Game Theory Sports looked at the change
in soccer teams wages since there has been a positive correlation, around 90%,
between wages and league rank. Three years ago Liverpool also sent another
star, Fernando Torres, to Chelsea for £50 million or $81 million. As a result,
Liverpool received 20 less points toward their standings during the season.
Liverpool went from finishing second in the league, to sixth and then eighth in
the subsequent years. The correlation seems obvious that trading expensive and
valuable players would result in worse performance, but that has not always
been the case. Manchester United, Arsenal, and Everton have all experienced
similar result after trading away some of their best players as well.
In an attempt to
replace their star in 2011, Liverpool purchased another star from Newcastle,
Andy Carroll. The problem with the transaction was that Newcastle knew that
Liverpool had excess in cash flow, thus inflating the cost of replacing the footballer.
Also, by trading away valuable players, teams are helping their rivals. In all,
it is better for teams to keep their star players rather than cashing them in.