Saturday, November 26, 2011

Who lost the decade?

The Japanese say they suffer from an economic disease called “structural
pessimism”. Overseas too, there is a tendency to see Japan as a harbinger of all
that is doomed in the economies of the euro zone and America. Besides supposed
stagnation, the two other curses of the Japanese economy are debt and deflation.
Yet these also partly reflect demography and can be overstated. Japan’s economy
works better for those middle-aged and older than it does for the young. But it is
not yet in crisis, and economists say there is plenty it could do to raise its potential
growth rate, as well as to lower its debt burden.

Brink Think

When Mario Draghi took over as president of the European Central Bank at the
beginning of this month, it was felt that he had to prove his credentials in Germany.
That task is made harder by calls on the ECB to act as backstop to troubled Italy,
Mr Draghi’s home country, and to contain a sovereign-debt crisis that is raising
borrowing costs for most euro-zone countries, while driving them down in Germany.
s much as reform in Italy and elsewhere is needed, it seems unlikely that promises
to be austere will halt what looks like a run from all euro-zone bonds but German
ones.

The Dwindling Power of a College Degree

This article is very interesting showing how technology and the needs of labor changes over time. Before back in the 1970s having a college degree guarantee a job right away now a bachelor degree is only a base. You will need more than that more specific skills and charm. Some jobs are more obsolete such as secretaries. Out sources are more common as well.
Nothing guarantees you anymore for a good job some believe "that if they played by the rules . . . they would have the chance to build a good life.”
During the 1970s there were stabilizers which keep working class wages up and rich's wages lower. Before the top bracket was taxed 70% in 1978 and its 35% now. But not there are more inequality.
There are 40 millions of people who are unskilled theses people are likely to be laid off. I'm not surprised to see that there are more inequality between the classes now than back in the days.

For Black Friday First-Timers, Not a Night of Conversion

Black Friday starts early this year many stores tend to open earlier as early as 9pm. With this economic situation more people tend to participate in Black Friday shopping than last year. Some people are more aggressive as well. There was a women in California pepper sprayed a fellow Wal-Mart shopper in order to get the Xbox she wanted. There was an estimated that they are 9000 shoppers visiting Macy this year compared to 7000 last year. Some people never participated in Black Friday sales before but this year they have too. For example a couple bought several box of diapers at Toy R US during the sales because they had twins with one income. I hope Black Friday sales can significantly increase the consumption rate. Then again some people came out for Black Friday but they didn't buy anything since the thing they wanted was out. This was a bad experience for some of them and they vowed not to participate again.

Will Cousins Cost You?

This is a very interesting article which talks about how your relatives could end you up in a financial debacle.
It is not only your own intelligence and networking which will assure your financial stability but the health and education of your relatives as most of the time one who is stable ends up paying for others.
One analogy I can make to the current situation is the student loan problem. Many of the student loans have been co signed by parents, uncles or cousins and in today's job market where jobs are hard to find, a default by the applicant would mean that his co signer ends up paying for his debt.
I see this as a potential threat in near future to the stability of the economy as student loan default rate is increasing and such a circumstance could have a trickle down effect.

The harsh reality

This is a great article about the mixture of optimism and harsh realities facing the american Economy currently. There are a lot of economic indicators saying things are looking good like the unemployment insurance etc. However somethings like orders etc for businesses do not look that great

Monday, November 21, 2011

Debt supercommittee members brace for failure

Not surprisingly, a bi-partisan group failed to come up with a good compromise.
The Democrats want high tax rates to the rich while the Republicans want to cut in Medicaid and Social Security.
It is blasphemous that these two sides are taking such extreme sides and won't budge.
With all the politicians gone for Thanksgiving, I hope they are working hard to find a solution.
The debt must be cut or else half of the cut must come from national security.
Republicans drove a hard bargain in order to let Obama raise hb

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Imperial Overstretch: Is A Bloated Defense Budget Weakening the U.S.?

This is a great article about how we can look at history to prevent disasters in the future. Specifically, this article compares the United States to the former Soviet Union and Britain in that we are neglecting our own economy while we are engaging in, what some call, "Imperial Overstretch". Defense over spending has resulted in a a "civilian/social service" deficit. This includes an under investment in our country's infrastructure, health care, and education, resulting in lower GDP growth. The author also criticizes the war in Afghanistan as a lost cause and reason for slow growth in recent years. This is the time in our country's history to correct what the world's history has shown us to be a fatal flaw in some of the greatest powers in history as we know it.

Trade

The article talks about the trans-pacific trade pact between 12 economies of the world in the Asia-Pacific region. The pact is important and worth noticing considering the fact that it accounts for more than 40% of the world's GDP. Some people are critical of the fact that this treaty would make some leaders only concentrate on trading in this region, thus affecting world trade. However, I strongly believe (and the article talks about it) that this would only enhance global trade and not hurt anyone. The most interesting part of the article is that it talks about how Japan has conveyed an interested to join this partnership and how this could mean a revolution in trade across the world considering Japan's tariffs of over 800% ! I believe that trade can only benefit everyone in the long run and look forward to learning more about this agreement in the future.

Debt Committee: Decision Time

The latest news on the Congressional deficit supercommittee is looking bleak. No substantial compromise has been reached thus far, and the timeline is running out. In this whole process, I, along with I would assume many Americans, have been quite confused about the whole thing. What is it that the supercommittee is trying to accomplish, what will happen if they reach it, and what will happen if they don't? Every politician and economist is giving different answers, and it's difficult to know what exactly will happen and how it will impact us. This article gives some good analysis of what's to come from the supercommittee, with a leaning towards the scenario where no deal is reached on time.