President Barack Obama, with his party perhaps on the cusp of a major electoral defeat, also faces the burden of recalibrating his presidency while restocking the West Wing's depleted policy team.
The National Economic Council has seen its influence wane with the announced resignation of Director Lawrence Summers and the difficult search for a successor, say former White House officials. The scope and scale of its economic proposals have shrunk drastically and gained little traction.
The White House budget office remains without permanent leadership three months after the departure of former chief Peter Orszag, shifting responsibility to junior staff members as Congress struggles to pass a budget for fiscal 2011, which began this month.
White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel's exit several weeks ago, meanwhile, robbed the president of one of his most powerful policy strategists. The National Security Council also faces a major transition, as James Jones gives way to new National Security Adviser Tom Donilon, admired for his administrative skills but not known as a policy maker.
White House press secretary Robert Gibbs attributed the departures to "a natural churning of personnel."
Other administrations have lost important players in the first two years and at politically sensitive times. Doug Sosnik, a top official in the Clinton White House, said President Bill Clinton faced a similar situation in the run-up to the 1994 election, after he replaced Chief of Staff Mack McLarty with Leon Panetta that July. Only after the new political landscape clarified could Mr. Panetta make "the broad-brush changes" that remade the Clinton presidency and led to his re-election, Mr. Sosnik said.
But Robert Reich, Mr. Clinton's labor secretary, said there was one clear difference: Mr. Clinton had few legislative victories to date to protect. He tacked to the center to work with Republicans. If Mr. Obama chooses to "preserve and protect" his legislative victories, "that doesn't require much of a policy apparatus," Mr. Reich said. "That requires a veto pen."
Nick Calio, a former legislative aide to President George W. Bush, said the holes in Mr. Obama's policy apparatus could shape the direction he takes after the election. Tuesday's election is expected to be hard on moderate Democrats in conservative districts, leaving a more ideologically liberal party that won't want the president to tack to the center, Mr. Calio said. "Without any forceful voices on the policy side, the question is going to be what is he going to do?" Mr. Calio said. "My guess is he relies on his own instincts, and that is to keep going in a liberal direction, which is not what his party needs."
The exodus and uncertainty as Election Day approaches, with polls showing Democrats could lose dozens of seats in Congress, has left the remaining policy makers gun-shy. "There seems to be a desire not to make much more policy, because there's a sense that the policy is what got them into trouble," a former White House official said.
Instead, policy proposals have seemed to be more symbolic. The White House unveiled a $50 billion infusion of infrastructure money that was actually part of transportation legislation that Congress isn't supposed to act on until next year. Likewise, a proposed permanent extension of the federal research-and-development tax credit was only moderately different from a tax plan included in Mr. Obama's budget proposals for two years running.
The staff problems appear especially evident in the economic council, responsible for combating high unemployment, and the Office of Management and Budget, under pressure to address budget deficits. However, Jen Psaki, White House deputy communications director, said the personnel turnover is to be expected. "The economic team is staffed with academics, with business leaders, with career professionals and economists, and the typical length of service for a high level, high-stress position in this area is less than two years," Ms. Psaki said.
She added that the economic team remains engaged, with members having met twice Tuesday and once Wednesday. Former officials say their biggest concern is that Mr. Summers is the one White House policy aide who could routinely out-argue the political hands. His scheduled departure for Dec. 31 shifts the balance of power, they say.
Meanwhile, little on the policy front is advancing. "They haven't calibrated what they're going to do after the election," a former official said. "Are they going to pursue ambitious disruptions of the current economic policies, or are they going to play small ball?"
"The difference between now and the [presidential] transition is that then there was a much clearer path, a game plan," another former official said. "There may be a game plan now, but I would be surprised if there was one."
Between the November 2008 election and Inauguration Day, the Obama team carefully sequenced its legislative game plan, starting with the stimulus bill, putting health care before the Senate and energy and climate change before the House, followed by a Wall Street re-regulation push. Now, this ex-official said, White House aides want to see the post-election congressional landscape before plotting the next steps.
The White House budget office faces a number of challenges. After the election, Congress must return for a lame-duck session to pass spending bills for the fiscal year that began Oct. 1. The process to develop the fiscal 2012 budget has already begun. OMB officials are poring over budget requests submitted by departments and agencies. On Dec. 1, the president's bipartisan commission on the federal debt is expected to issue its recommendations, which are supposed to provide the blueprint for deficit reduction in the next budget, due out in early February.
But Jacob Lew's nomination for director of OMB is being blocked by Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, in protest over the administration's offshore oil-drilling policies. The deputy spot is also being held open for Mr. Lew. And Rob Nabors, a former OMB official who joined the chief of staff's office, has returned to lead the process as acting deputy director. Jeff Zients, who is supposed to lead the White House's government management-reform efforts, is acting OMB director.
"We have the ability to fly at a very high altitude. That's what we're doing right now," Ken Baer, the White House budget office's communications director, said of their efforts to put together the fiscal 2012 budget. "We can have the table set for Jack [Lew], but we need him and want him here."
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