Trade War Cutting Global Growth?

Recently the IMF stated that they believe that the United States and China trade war will cut the global growth to its slowest pace since 2008. It does seem that if this trade war remains unresolved, the global growth could get even worse. The United States and China are the two largest economies in the world, do we owe it to the rest of the world to resolve this mess? Also, how would we go about resolving this to where it is beneficial for both us and China. Lastly, do you believe that the United States and China will ever be able to go back to the way it was before this?

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/15/imf-says-trade-war-will-cut-global-growth-to-lowest-since-financial-crisis-a-decade-ago.html

Reduction in Unemployment

Donald Trump has claimed the USA economy is the greatest it's ever been l, saying it's "perhaps the greatest economy we've had in the history of our country".

Now while this is a bold claim, he is not too far from the truth. The economy is doing well. However, there have been multiple times throughout the history of the country where statistics show otherwise. 

The tensions between the second-largest economy in China have forced the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates which in turn leading to more investments 

One of Trump's biggest achievements is the reduction of the unemployment percentage. This rate is at its lowest for half a century; since 1969, which is 3.7%.

Wages on average has also gone up slightly. It reached 3.4% in February and has marginally come down to 3.23%.

However, it is important to note that when taking inflation into account, between the period of August 2018- August 2019, wages stand at 1.5%

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-45827430

Ohio Opioid Settlements Amount to Roughly $260 Million

NPR Article

Four drug companies settled with Summit and Cuyahoga counties to avoid a landmark case for liabilities in the opioid crisis, what would have been the first of federal court cases for thousands of similar opioid cases across the country. Distributors Amerisource Bergen, Cardinal Health, and McKesson pledged $215 million; manufacturer Teva pharmaceuticals will pay $20 million in cash and another $25 million in addiction and overdose treatment medication. This accountability for the medical and pharma sectors will have wide reaching implications over the entire US health field, and we shall see how similar cases will play out in the future.

More store closings coming: An estimated 12,000 shops could close by the end of 2019

This article keeps a list of the number of locations that retail stores have closed this year alone. The article attributes the numbers to the high tariffs that have been imposed by the US and Chinese governments. The author also talks about how there is also a need to consider that many stores are closing because of the e-commerce boom that has been happening and that will continue to happen for the foreseeable future. Where are all of these jobs going to go? Along with that what will happen to all of the empty stores that were previously occupied?

Link to article: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/07/03/2019-store-closings-list-these-retailers-shuttering-locations/1597997001/

Unexpected Decreases in Retail Sales

Retail sales decreasing is a sign on what to expect in the U.S economy. Consumption is a Huge piece of U.S GDP. If consumption begins to decrease, the chances of a recession is happening is high. Economist expected retail sales to increase by 0.2% in the month of September, but instead retail sales dropped 0.3%. In the article it mentioned auto sales and service stations dropping in September. They said "Auto sales fell 0.9% in September, the most in eight months, while receipts at service stations fell 0.7% in what likely reflects cheaper gasoline.." This shows if auto sales are effected, will also affect service stations. September is the first month in seven, where retail sales have dropped. Be attentive, because there looks like a recession is coming soon than later.  

US Housing starts fall from 12-year high

U.S. home building dropped from more than a 12-year high in September but single family home construction rose for a 4th straight month. This suggests that the housing market remains supported by lower mortgage rates as the economy is slowing. Housing starts declined to 9.4% to a annual rate of 1.256 million units last month. Now economist have forecast housing starts to decrease at a pace of 1.320 million units in September. Though housing did rise by 1.6% on a year-on-year basis in September. The housing market has perked up in recent months due to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing, which has pushed down mortgage rates from multi-year highs.

Homebuilder confidence surges to highest level in nearly two years, thanks to lower mortgage rates

Builder construction confidence in the single family market is up 3 points to 70 according to the National Association of The Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. The Index is composed of three parts current sales conditions, sales expectations, and buyer traffic. Current sales conditions is up 3 to 78, sales expectations is up 6 to 76, and buyer traffic is up 4 to 54 in the month of October. Anything around or above 50 is considered positive sentiment. The incline that began in the spring was supported by low mortgage rates and job growth but concerns about the economy slowing and the housing supply levels being low keep single family construction confidence from growing too rapidly.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/16/homebuilder-confidence-surges-to-highest-in-nearly-two-years.html

2019 Nobel Prize in Economics

This past week, the Nobel prize in Economics was given to Abhijit Banerejee, Esther Duflo, and Michael Kremer. This honored was bestowed onto them due to their work attempting to explain poverty in other countries. They did this by stepping away from the big picture, and instead asked littles ones. They split the reasons for poverty into smaller sections and really tried to understand the root cause of this so they could make a bigger change. Their experiments reveal that the gap in productivity between the most and least efficient producers is much wider in developing economies than in advanced ones. While they have made significant progress, global poverty still remains. 

Now I ask, what do you think are some of the main causes of poverty and why are countries still struggling in 2019? And more importantly, can we ever erase poverty completely or are some always doomed to be "poor"?

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/10/17/a-nobel-economics-prize-goes-to-pioneers-in-understanding-poverty

EU Leaders Endorse Most Recent Brexit Deal

BBC Article

The latest Brexit deal headed to the UK House of Commons in a special session has received a unanimous endorsement from EU leaders, a rather surprising (to me) development. On the contrary, the session held on Saturday was much more divided, with DUP leaders promising to "vote (Boris) Johnson down", encouraging Conservatives to follow suit. Britain was set to leave on the 31st of this month, but another request for postponement came from Britain, which is in hopefully rejected, from my point of view.

Ceasefire in Northern Syria Due to Heavy Economic Sanctions on Turkey

Reuters Article

After five hours of negotiations with President Erdogan of Turkey on Friday, Turkish forces have stalled, allowing the Kurdish fighters time to retreat. This response by Turkey can be mostly credited to the very strong economic sanctions that President Trump warned Turkey of after pulling troops out of Syria earlier this month (a heavily scrutinized move). A classic example of using trade to force another country's hand.