Economy picked up in early 2026, but inflation jumped, too

 Within the first three months of 2026, the U.S. economy grew at a 2% pace, an improvement after a slower end to 2025. Alongside this growth, consumers have shown fatigue amid rising prices, and the economy is running below the Congressional Budget Office's estimate of the economy's potential to grow without aggravating inflation.

While businesses continue to drive growth by investing more, especially in AI, consumers are feeling the pressure. Regular gasoline is averaging $4.30 per gallon, which is a four-year high. These high prices are making people more cautious with spending and has the potential to slow the economy again.

The big idea of this article is to stress that growth does not always equal stability. The economy is technically improving, but rising costs make it more difficult for people to feel that progress in their daily lives.

Spirit Airlines shuts down as company says it can’t keep up with higher oil prices

    Spirit Airlines, which is known for being very low-cost, has shut down after years of financial problems. They had been dealing with debt for a long time and had already been through the bankruptcy process twice. It might've helped them in the short run, but it never really fixed the overarching problems. On top of this, higher fuel prices, higher operating costs, and tougher competition in the airline industry made it even harder for them to remain profitable. Even with demand for travel rebounding after the pandemic, Spirit was never able to get its finances worked out.

    In some of their final days, there was a last effort to keep the airline alive. This was through a bailout or takeover idea that had connections to the Trump administration. This idea depended on getting approval from creditors and other stakeholders, which ultimately never happened. After this, Spirit had no realistic path forward and started shutting things down. Flights were cancelled, leaving passengers trying to find new last-minute flights. If tickets were bought straight from Spirit, they had a reserve to refund these customers. Other airlines offered $200 one-way tickets for confirmed Spirit ticket holders. Overall, Spirit shows how risky the ultra-low-cost airline structure can be when costs suddenly rise, and there's no cushion to absorb it.

https://apnews.com/article/spirit-airlines-trump-bailout-bankruptcy-37a4818e1b71c0905d022f669d85948c

The Cost of AI in the Eyes of Investors

     In a recent article from the The Epoch Times, big tech companies like Google, Meta, and Microsoft just released their latest earnings reports, and while they’re making a large sum of profit, they’re also spending a massive amount of money on AI. Essentially, building the infrastructure needed for AI, like huge data centers and expensive computer chips is costing investors billions of dollars. Google seems to be handling it the best so far because they’re only using about half of their extra cash to pay for these upgrades. However, investors are getting a bit nervous about companies like Microsoft and Meta because they’re spending a much larger chunk of their money just to keep up in the AI race.
    This shows that the AI boom phase is finally starting to wear off. Before, everyone was just excited about the idea of AI, but now investors are starting to ask the questions of when do we actually make money from this? It’s not enough to just spend billions on new tech anymore, these companies have to prove that AI is actually going to pay off soon. If they don’t start showing real results or new ways to make profit in the next few months, we might see their stock prices take a hit as people realize how expensive this whole AI investment really is. 

https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/big-tech-posts-strong-earnings-as-ai-spending-pressures-cash-flow-6020476

Supply Shocks? We’ve Had a Few. Here’s How Investors Can Deal

The article explains that the economy is currently facing a series of supply shocks, which are sudden disruptions that limit the availability of goods, labor, or energy. These shocks are difficult for the government to manage because their tools, like changing interest rates, cannot fix broken supply chains or provide more oil. For investors, these events are particularly challenging because they can cause prices to rise while economic growth slows down.

To deal with this uncertainty, the author suggests that investors move beyond simply planning for the most likely outcome. Instead, they should use scenario analysis to test how their portfolios would handle various situations such as a prolonged energy crisis. The article recommends focusing on resilience by investing in high-quality companies with economic moats that can pass higher costs on to customers. They say that diversification remains essential but investors are warned that traditional bonds may not provide protection during high inflation periods. The goal for investors is to prepare for a wider range of risks rather than betting on a single economic path.

As seen in the IS-LM models discussed in class this supply shock might have different impacts in the economy. There might be an decrease in GDP, an increase in interest rates, and an increase in price levels. 

https://www.morningstar.com/economy/supply-shocks-weve-had-few-heres-how-investors-can-deal 

The Tariff Refund Process is Underway

     Two months after the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, American importers can apply for reimbursement starting Monday through a new US Customs and Border Protection portal. The refunds are expected to be returned within 60 - 90 days of applications, but could take longer depending on whether additional reviews of entries are merited. For the first phase of the refunds, only entities that have made certain tariff payments will be able to make refund requests, but it is still unclear when the system will open for all payments that are subject to a refund. 

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/20/economy/tariff-refund-process-kicks-off 

The United States Just Found a Century of Lithium on Its Own Soil

The recent U.S. Geological Survey estimate that the eastern United States may hold about 2.3 million metric tons of lithium resources shows how domestic geology could reshape the economics of the energy transition. This endowment could replace current U.S. lithium imports for roughly 328 years at 2024 import levels, signaling a potential long run shift in the country’s external position on a key critical mineral. Moving from near total import dependence to a multi century domestic resource base would change expectations about trade balances, investment, and energy security far beyond the mining sector.

About 1.4 million metric tons of lithium oxide are estimated under North and South Carolina, with roughly 0.9 million metric tons across Maine and New Hampshire, together enough, on paper, to supply batteries for around 130 million electric vehicles and over a million large scale storage systems. Global lithium demand has grown at double digit annual rates, and the U.S. imports almost all of its primary lithium, so even bringing 20 to 30 percent of the 2.3 million ton resource into production would yield hundreds of thousands of tons of domestic supply, shifting billions of dollars of future imports into domestic capital formation, wages, and tax revenue. These figures turn the idea of resource security into concrete outcomes linked to current account balances, industrial policy, and the location of new manufacturing clusters.

The size of the resource sets an upper bound, but actual outcomes will be limited by permitting timelines, environmental and community resistance, and the volume of investment over the next decade. Large U.S. mining and processing projects often take 7 to 10 years to move from concept to production, and the eastern lithium belt runs through populated regions with strong local political voice, slowing or reshaping projects. The key transition is from treating lithium as a fixed import constraint to treating it as a variable shaped by domestic choices, with different development paths for the 2.3 million ton resource leading to distinct trajectories for trade balances, investment, and the pace of the energy transition.

US weekly jobless claims decrease as labor market conditions remain stable

The Federal Reserve is currently keeping interest rates at a moderate level, around 3.5% to 3.75%, in order to control inflation. When interest rates are higher, it becomes more expensive for people and businesses to borrow money, which reduces spending and investment. This helps slow down the overall economy and prevents prices from rising too quickly.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve has to be very careful with its decisions. If interest rates are raised too much or kept high for too long, it could reduce economic growth and lead to a recession. Because of this, the Fed is trying to find a balance between lowering inflation and maintaining a stable, growing economy without causing major job losses..

Source : https://www.reuters.com/business/us-weekly-jobless-claims-decrease-labor-market-conditions-remain-stable-2026-04-30/

AI-related investment, rebound in government spending drive US economy in first quarter

  The job market in the U.S. remains strong, with unemployment staying relatively low at around 4.3%. Many companies are holding onto their workers and layoffs are limited, which helps keep income stable for many households. This stability is a positive sign for the overall economy.

However, hiring has slowed down compared to previous years, meaning it may be harder for new job seekers to find opportunities. While the job market is still healthy, economists are paying attention to whether this strength can continue if economic conditions change.

Source : https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/us-growth-picks-up-first-quarter-2026-04-30

Economy picked up in early 2026, but inflation jumped, too

 Inflation has started to increase again, with prices rising around 3–3.5%, which is above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. A major reason for this increase is higher energy and gas prices, partly caused by global tensions and supply issues. As a result, everyday goods and services are becoming more expensive for consumers.

This rise in inflation reduces people’s purchasing power, meaning their money does not go as far as it used to. If inflation continues to rise, it could put pressure on both households and businesses, making it harder to save money and plan for the future.

Source : https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/04/30/economy-gdp-growth-first-quarter/

U.S. economy grew 2% in the first quarter, helped by AI boom and reversal of shutdown effects

 The U.S. economy is currently growing at a moderate pace, with GDP increasing by about 2% in early 2026. This growth is being supported by strong investment in new technologies like artificial intelligence and continued government spending. While this shows the economy is stable, it is not growing fast enough to be considered a major boom.

At the same time, this steady growth suggests that consumers are still spending and businesses are still operating confidently. However, economists are watching closely because slower growth could become a concern if it continues, especially if other problems like inflation begin to worsen.

 source : https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/gdp-q1-economy-trump? 

Economy Core inflation rate hit 3.2% in March as first-quarter growth disappointed at 2%

This report shows that inflation has stubbornly remained above the Federal Reserve's target level while economic growth has been modest. During the month of March, the core PCE rose 0.3% alone and 3.2% over the past year. Inflation reached 3.5% primarily due to the surge in energy prices in the U.S. While the economy did grow 2%, which is an improvement from Q4 of 2025, it still fell a bit below expectations. Despite higher prices in the economy, the job market still remains strong. Jobless claims are at their lowest since 1969, but with higher prices, many consumers are cutting back on spending. Given consumption has been a constant in recent years, this could be troubling if this trend continues. Overall, the economy is mixed; there is good job stability and growth in sectors such as AI, but with persistent inflation and higher prices, it's weighing on households. This is making it hard for the Federal Reserve to make a decision on what to do about interest rates. 

PCE inflation rate March 2026: 

Rising Corporate Profits

Corporate profits continued to reach all-time highs in late 2025, due to the growth in technology,  the steady growth of the economy, the increase in corporate market power, and the decrease in federal tax rates.  The investment boom happening in the tech sector- largely due to A.I.-has positive effects on the profit growth of sectors like healthcare and manufacturing. The lack of a large recession, which crushes profit growth, has helped as well. Simultaneously, the growth of larger firms means they have more price power and higher profits as things become concentrated. Lastly, there has been a steady four-decade-long decrease in the federal tax rate from 46% to 21%, as well as a fall in real interest rates. All of this means fatter margins for corporations who continue to have an optimistic outlook for profit margins ahead. 

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/business/dealbook/corporate-profits-record.html

How Federal Reserve Interest Rates Are Shaping the Economy

 Over the past year, Federal Reserve interest rate policy has continued to play a major role in shaping consumer spending, business investment, and overall economic growth. With inflation still above the Fed’s long-term 2% target, policymakers have kept rates elevated rather than rushing into cuts. While this strategy is designed to control inflation, it also creates real pressure on consumers and businesses. Higher borrowing costs mean more expensive mortgages, auto loans, credit cards, and business financing, which can slow spending and investment. For everyday consumers, this often means less disposable income and tighter financial decisions, while businesses may delay expansion or hiring due to increased capital costs.

At the same time, these higher rates are helping cool inflationary pressures by reducing excessive demand, which is the Fed’s primary goal. According to Reuters, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently emphasized that the U.S. economy remains resilient, but inflation risks and external pressures continue to justify a cautious monetary stance. This suggests the Fed is prioritizing long-term price stability over short-term economic stimulus.

From a macroeconomic perspective, this reflects contractionary monetary policy, where tighter money supply can reduce inflation but may also slow GDP growth if maintained too aggressively. Moving forward, the challenge for the Fed will be balancing inflation control without pushing the economy into unnecessary slowdown. In my view, current policy shows how interest rates remain one of the strongest tools for economic stabilization, even though the effects are felt differently across households and industries.

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-economy-quite-resilient-should-keep-growing-above-2-feds-powell-says-2026-04-29/?utm_source

Oil Prices Spike and Raise Fears of Economic Slowdown - Reuters

Oil prices have recently increased tensions in the Middle East, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, an important route for global oil shipments. Because so much oil passes through this area, any disruption causes prices to rise quickly.

As oil prices go up, it becomes more expensive to transport goods and produce energy. This leads to higher prices for everyday items, which increases inflation. Many economists are worried that if prices stay high, it could slow down economic growth around the world.

This situation is an example of a supply shock, where a decrease in supply leads to higher prices. If it continues, countries could face slower growth and rising costs at the same time. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/global-oil-prices-rise-2026

These charts show how Iran’s economy is in freefall-- CNBC

 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/23/iran-economy-war-charts-rial-oil-strait-hormuz-blockade.html

The conflict between the United States and Iran is creating challenges for the already weak Iranian economy, sending it into freefall. The primary Iranian tactic to combat its Middle Eastern enemies has been economic restriction, primarily through a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, limiting around 20% of the world’s oil supply. 90% of the nation’s annual trade passes through the strait, and its closure strikes both domestic demand/imports and exports to trading partners.  The nation is facing additional economic contractions, including severe inflation. In early 2026, food prices were inflated by more than 100%, with bread and cereals at 140% and oils and fats at 219%. The IMF predicts a shrinking of the Iranian economy by 6.1% in 2026. 

Despite these predictions, economists are facing difficulty in accurately tracking Iran’s economic data. The country has not self-reported GDP since 2024 and has been faced with widespread internet blackouts that make domestic statistics inaccessible. Nonetheless, the effect that the Strait of Hormuz closure has had can still be seen from foreign perspectives. Some hope that such a drastic impact will force Iran to negotiate a quick end to the conflict out of necessity. Senior Iranian economic officials have allegedly warned President Masoud Pezeshkian that it may take more than a decade to rebuild the Iranian economy if the conflict continues, which may be an internal factor applying pressure to the possibility of peace talks.

How the AI Boom Is Raising Electricity Costs in the U.S.

Artificial intelligence is not just changing technology, it is starting to affect household bills too. Reuters reported this week that electricity demand in the U.S. is rising partly because of the huge growth in AI data centers. The Energy Information Administration expects residential electricity prices to rise 5.1% in 2026 and another 2.4% in 2027, as utilities deal with higher demand, grid upgrades, and other rising costs.

A big reason is that AI needs enormous amounts of power. Reuters reported today that utilities like Entergy are expanding spending heavily to serve major data center projects, including Meta’s operations in Louisiana. That shows how the AI boom is creating real pressure on the energy system, not just the stock market.

This matters because when power companies spend more to build plants, transmission lines, and other infrastructure, those costs can eventually affect consumers. So even if someone never uses AI much, they may still feel its economic impact through a higher electricity bill. Overall, the AI boom is becoming more than a tech story it is turning into an everyday cost issue in the U.S. economy.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-consumers-face-rising-electricity-prices-despite-clean-power-savings--reeii-2026-04-28

Fed Interest Rate Decsion

 

In its April 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady, continuing its cautious approach to monetary policy. The decision reflects ongoing uncertainty about the direction of the economy, particularly regarding inflation and overall growth.

According to the article, the Fed is still concerned that inflation has not fully returned to its target, which makes it difficult to justify cutting rates too soon. At the same time, there are signs that the economy may be slowing, which creates pressure to avoid keeping rates too high for too long.

Because of this, the Fed is taking a wait and see approach, choosing not to make any major changes until more economic data becomes available. The Fed signaled that future policy decisions will depend on incoming economic data, particularly inflation trends.

Overall, the Fed’s decision shows the challenge of balancing inflation control with economic stability. For now, policymakers are choosing caution, leaving interest rates unchanged while closely monitoring the economy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-april-2026.html

The Fed, Frozen

Based on recent economic trends, many people are guessing the Fed will not cut interest rates anymore. However, some people warn that this assumption may be inaccurate. The war with Iran has increased oil prices, and people fear this conflict will cause an increase in inflation. But it seems likely that this war could end fairly soon. If this does occur and prices sink back to the same level as before the war, the Fed could resume the interest rate cuts that people expected before the conflict. The Chief Economist at Oxford Economics said that he believed the Fed would wait and see how the war progresses, but he still expects interest rate cuts before the end of the year. The short-term inflation expectations are fairly high, but the long-term expectations are lower. This once more supports the idea that when the war with Iran ends, the economy will resume to where it left off before the conflict.  

Another reason it seems likely the Fed would want to cut interest rates is that the country seems to be entering a phase of slow economic growth. In order to help stimulate growth and decrease unemployment, interest rates could be cut. Overall, it seems the Fed is currently just playing a waiting game, frozen until the war is resolved. Most people suspect the war will conclude soon, and then it seems likely that interest rate cuts will resume as well. 

https://www.investopedia.com/here-are-the-reasons-why-fed-rate-cuts-are-still-possible-11951320

We spoke to over 30 central bankers, policymakers and politicians. Here are their top concerns

 The war is drawn out at this point which leaves things uncertain. Policymakers think the biggest problem is not just the war but also there is no clear end and peace talks are uncertain. Uncertainty reduces investment and consumption. Higher energy prices go into global inflation. In the end slower global demand means there is weaker growth. Many officials are now worried about Stagflation which is high inflation with low economic growth. They say energy shocks push inflation up; uncertainty and higher cots push growth down. Some estimate that the inflation could rise to 2.5%, if these stays rising stagflation could occur.

Energy security is the main channel of impact. The biggest transmission mechanism is oil and flows which is through the strait of Hormuz. This is important because large share of oil passes through it. The risks that are brough up is the supply disruptions, shipping delays, and oil price spikes. These all have a impact with the global price shock.

Central bankers, politicians warn of global risks as Iran war drags on

Rising Recession Expectations

    Lately, there has been an increase in concern about a possible recession. What’s interesting is that expectations alone can influence economic behavior. When businesses think a slowdown is coming, they may cut back on hiring or delay investments. At the same time, consumers may spend less and save more if they’re worried about job security. This can actually slow the economy before a recession even begins.

    This connects closely to business cycles, since changes in confidence can push the economy from expansion toward contraction. Overall, rising recession expectations highlights that confidence in the economy is crucial. Even without a clear downturn yet, the shift in outlook alone can start to shape real economic activity.

Retirees leaving earlier than expected

For most Americans retiring is the ultimate goal. It's the reason you work so hard and for so long, so you can kick back and relax when you're older. One thing is clear; the longer you work, the more benefits you'll get once retired. But many Americans are being forced to retire early for reasons that they can't control. 76% of early retirements happened due to factors out of individual control.

One large problem with the "working longer means better retirement" strategy is that there's no guarantee that you'll even be able to work longer. Health problems build, layoffs happen, and overall unpredictable events occur more than anticipated. Even with the health care system being stronger than ever, costs for that take away from building for retirement.

One of the most important things people can do is having a backup plan and getting debt out of the way early. The last thing anyone wants is to retire and still have to make payments on outstanding debt. Long-term insurance also provides a nice safety net in the event of emergencies, which inevitably happen.

Waiting until age 70 is the best case scenario. At this age social security benefits are maximized. Waiting until 66-67 is a minimum to obtain full retirement benefits. With people leaving the workforce earlier than expected, the labor participation rate may seem artificially lower than expected. It's important that Americans are trying to stay in the workforce as long as possible for their own benefit and the benefit of the economy as a whole.

Article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/28/early-retirement.html

Artificial Intelligence

 The rise of artificial intelligence is starting to have a real impact on jobs and the overall economy. Companies like Microsoft and Google are investing heavily in AI, which is helping boost productivity but also raising concerns about job loss in certain industries. Some businesses are already using AI to replace routine tasks, especially in customer service and data entry roles. At the same time, new jobs are being created in tech and AI development, so it’s not all negative. According to recent reporting from Reuters, economists believe AI could significantly increase global economic output over the next decade.  Still, there’s a lot of uncertainty about how fast these changes will happen and who will benefit the most. Overall, AI is shaping up to be one of the biggest economic shifts happening right now, and people are still trying to figure out what it really means for the future.

 reuters.com

 

Spring housing market stalls as war, high mortgage rates keep buyers sidelined

As a college student about to graduate next year, the current housing market is making me anxious. Rising mortgage rates and economic uncertainty aren’t just headlines, they’re shaping the world I’m going to be entering in the foreseeable future. If the job market slows down or wages don’t keep up, it could make it even harder to build financial stability early on.

Looking ahead 10 years, it’s hard not to feel concerned about affordability. Home prices are still high, and even small changes in interest rates can make a big difference in what people can afford. If these trends continue, buying a home might feel further out of reach for my generation.

At the same time, it’s a reminder that long-term planning matters. Saving early, staying flexible, and being realistic about financial goals may be more important than ever. While the future is uncertain, understanding these trends now helps me prepare for what’s ahead. As well as understanding that things change all the time. There is plenty of time for the housing market to die down. On the flip side, the job market is getting harder and harder. Time will tell how my generation will be able to handle economic adversity.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/16/economy/us-mortgage-rates-spring-housing-market

Why markets remained calm after the Trump–Iran ceasefire extension

The extension of the ceasefire between Donald Trump and Iran did not cause much movement in financial markets, with stock prices and oil prices staying mostly the same. This is because investors had already expected the ceasefire to continue, so the news did not provide any new information. Financial markets usually react more to unexpected events, and since this announcement kept conditions stable, there was little reason for the prices to change. Right now, investors are also paying more attention to factors like inflation, interest rates, and overall economic growth, which have a bigger impact on the market than ongoing geopolitical situations.

Another reason for the limited reaction is the stability of oil supply. The Middle East is an important region for global energy, but the continued ceasefire reduces the risk of disruptions. Since there was no increase in conflict, expectations about oil supply stayed the same which kept the prices steady. Overall, this shows that markets respond to changes in expectations and in this case, the situation remained largely unchanged.

 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/22/markets-shrug-at-trumps-iran-ceasefire-extension.html

How Tariff Refunds Could Impact Retailers and the Economy

How Tariff Refunds Could Impact Retailers and the Economy

A recent Supreme Court decision ruling Trump-era tariffs unlawful could lead to major refunds for U.S. retailers, with companies like Walmart and Target potentially receiving billions back. According to estimates cited in the article, Walmart could receive up to $10.2 billion in refunds, while Target may receive $2.2 billion. These refunds matter economically because tariffs had acted like an extra cost on imports, raising expenses for retailers and often contributing to higher consumer prices. If these companies recover those funds, it could improve their balance sheets, help pay debt, buy back stocks, or even create room for lower prices or new investment.

The story also highlights how tariffs can affect consumers through inflation. A study from Harvard Business School found tariff "pass-through" added to the Consumer Price Index, showing businesses often shifted some of those costs onto consumers. That creates an interesting economic question: if companies are refunded after consumers already paid higher prices, who really benefits? Some legal experts even raised concerns that companies could face lawsuits over that issue. It shows how trade policy can have long-term ripple effects beyond just government revenue, influencing prices, corporate profits, and consumer welfare.

What I found especially interesting is how uncertain the refund process still is. Even though the tariffs were ruled illegal, analysts and trade lawyers expect bureaucratic delays, and the administration is already considering new Section 301 tariffs that could replace some of the old ones. It shows how trade policy can create instability for businesses, even when courts intervene. Usually, tariffs feel like a broad policy issue removed from everyday life, but this makes it easier to see how they affect prices we pay at stores and even the financial health of major retailers. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/20/tariff-refunds-begin-on-monday-these-retailers-are-due-big-paydays.html 

Markets Stay Calm Despite Iran Ceasefire Extension

Markets showed little reaction after Donald Trump extended the Iran ceasefire, suggesting investors believe tensions are easing. Stocks have remained steady, with many thinking the worst of the conflict may already be over.

However, risks still exist. Oil prices remain high due to disruptions in key shipping routes, and recent incidents show the situation is still fragile.

Overall, markets appear optimistic but cautious as they wait to see what happens next.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/22/markets-shrug-at-trumps-iran-ceasefire-extension.html

How conflict in the Middle East is effecting Airline Ticket Prices

    Recent conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher, and the airlines are already feeling the effects. According to Reuters, jet fuel prices have jumped from about $85-90 per barrel to as high as $150-200 per barrel after the escalation of the war. Since fuel makes up roughly 20% to 40% of airline operating costs, increases like this quickly force airlines to adjust pricing. Several carriers have already warned that ticket prices could rise around 15–20% as they try to manage higher fuel expenses.

Higher oil prices matter beyond just airlines because they directly affect the cost of global travel. When flights become more expensive, tourism demand can slow and international business travel can become less frequent. This creates ripple effects across industries like hospitality, transportation, and global trade that depend on consistent travel activity.

This situation is a good example of how geopolitical events move through commodity markets and into everyday economic activity. A shock to oil supply increases fuel costs, which then raises airline prices and impacts consumers. Usually when we talk about macroeconomic trends, I don’t personally notice the effects right away. But recently I had to buy a flight and was shocked how expensive tickets have become, which was interesting to see how something like higher oil prices from geopolitical conflict can directly impact everyday decisions like travel.

Source: 

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/price-hikes-outlook-cuts-what-airlines-are-doing-fuel-costs-surge-2026-04-23/

Chair nominee Kevin Warsh says Fed must ‘stay in its lane’ to maintain independence

Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh said Monday the central bank must be largely independent of political influence but also should stay focused on its primary goals.In remarks to be delivered Tuesday to the Senate Banking Committee, Warsh also expressed firm commitment to fighting inflation with only one mention of the labor market. “Simply stated, Fed independence is largely up to the Fed,” the former central bank governor said. Warsh’s speech also features a familiar criticism he has brought in recent years, namely that the Fed on multiple occasions has overstepped its boundaries and reached into areas such as climate change and social inequality. “The Fed must stay in its lane. Fed independence is placed at greatest risk when it strays into fiscal and social policies where it has neither authority nor expertise,” he added.

Here's why concerns about an AI bubble are bigger than ever & Google boss says trillion-dollar AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

As artificial intelligence becomes more prominent, it’s worth asking whether this is a true economic shift or simply another stage in the business cycle. There’s a lot of investment, rising stock prices, and optimism, which are all signs of a typical boom. According to the BBC, AI company values have soared and businesses are spending heavily to keep up. However, this growth is happening before long-term profits are certain. In the past, when investment outpaced real returns, it often signaled trouble ahead.

It’s still uncertain if this growth is based on real demand or just excitement. Both articles point out that much of the current momentum comes from hopes for the future, not today’s needs. NPR notes that companies are investing heavily in data centers and AI tools because they expect future profits, even though current AI revenue is still low. This gap between expectations and reality is common in speculative cycles.

This situation affects more than just short-term market changes. In business cycles, periods of excessive confidence often precede a peak and a downturn. NPR points out that companies are taking on significant debt and using complex financial tools to sustain AI growth, which increases risk if profits do not materialize. The BBC compares this to the dot-com era, when excessive optimism led to a major correction. 

This shows that the current groHowever, it’s not fair to see this moment as just risky. Both sources agree that artificial intelligence is a real technological breakthrough that could boost productivity and economic growth in the long run. The BBC points out that while there are some 'elements of irrationality,' the technology itself could offer real benefits in the future. This suggests that, instead of a total collapse, the economy may undergo a period of adjustment as expectations and outcomes converge. and outcomes converge.

Overall, the AI boom appears to be somewhere between growth and its peak. There’s clear progress, but also signs of instability. The key question is whether these big investments will create lasting economic value, or if the gap between promises and results will lead to a correction. The outcome depends on how well excitement is balanced with real progress in technology and the market.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy7vrd8k4eo

https://www.npr.org/2025/11/23/nx-s1-5615410/ai-bubble-nvidia-openai-revenue-bust-data-centers

Cattle prices soar to record highs as grilling season heats up

As grilling season approaches, beef prices are rising to record highs, creating pressure for both consumers and businesses. Rather than being a short-term increase, this increase is influences by a long-term decline in cattle supply. Live cattle futures have reached about $2.51 per pound, the highest on record, and are up more than 25% over the past year. Ranchers have reduced herd sizes due to rising costs, leaving the U.S. cattle herd at its smallest level since the 1950s.

This disconnect between supply and demand is showing up in production as well. Cattle slaughter dropped to about 2.2 million head in March, down from 2.5 million the year before, and beef production fell to around 1.9 million. Simultaneously, demand for beef has stayed steady, which only pushes prices higher. Ground beef has risen to about $6.70 per pound, around 12% higher than last year.

These rising costs have already started to affect everyday spending. Restaurants that rely heavily on beef might see slower growth, and farmers are facing the rise in expenses, in which 60% reported worsening financial conditions. Overall, the rise in beef prices reflects a broader issue in the agricultural sector, where limited supply and high production costs are driving ongoing food inflation that will continue to impact consumers.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15beef-cattle-grilling-inflation.html

Does the Iran war increase the risk of a Chinese attack on Taiwan?

Does the Iran war increase the risk of a Chinese attack on Taiwan?

This article explains that although many people believed China might invade Taiwan by 2027, new U.S. intelligence says that is not currently the plan. This gives some relief, but it does not mean the threat is gone. China is still building up its military, so the risk could happen later, especially between 2028 and 2032.

The article also talks about how other wars, like in the Middle East and Ukraine, affect this situation. The United States is using resources and focusing attention on those conflicts, which could make it weaker or distracted. Because of that, China might see a better opportunity in the future, not right now.

At the same time, China is not fully ready to invade Taiwan yet. An invasion would be very difficult, costly and risky. The U.S. could still respond strongly and it would damage the global economy including China’s. There are also internal issues in China’s military leadership that need to be fixed first.

Overall, the main idea is that a conflict is unlikely in the short term, but the possibility still exists in the future depending on political events, military readiness, and global conflicts.  

JPMorganChase Invests $1.5T+ In European Markets to Ensure Economic Stability

Jamie Dimon, CEO of world's largest bank JPMorganChase, recently announced a $1.5 trillion investment in Europe industries that the firm has considered key to U.S. economic resilience. 

This investment package builds upon a similar package announced in the U.S. a few months earlier. The firm's goal with these investments is to enhance the stability of the U.S. economy, particularly during times of geopolitical crisis, by securing more predictable supply chains for critical goods. These critical goods include rare earth minerals, input goods for military products, and energy goods. 

I believe this investment package is highly interesting for two reasons. One, it can be viewed as a criticism of the recent trend towards economic globalization by the world's largest bank; and two, that a single international firm is attempting to alter the shape of international economies far beyond its own industry. I am curious to see the popular and political responses to this investment package, as I believe it may be viewed as a bank overstepping its right to interfere in the wider economy.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/21/jpmorgan-chase-security-defense-spending-ai-europe-uk-dimon.html

How stocks are changing with the war in Iran

With the conflict in Iran escalating, the stock market is still shaky.  The main stock that is still shaky is oil, which is because investors are worried about supply disruptions and the rising prices, while President Trump has said that the Strait of Hormuz is back open.  Investors are still not fully back. With it being open, reports show that the shipping through the strait has remained below normal levels, so oil supply is still tight and uncertain. That keeps oil prices elevated. which tends to push energy stocks like oil producers higher in the short term while putting pressure on airline companies and other types of services that rely on fuel. Overall, the confidence in the oil market has improved slightly, but with the high risk of a flare-up in the region, causing the stock to close again, investors are scared. With this high risk, investors could shift their money into safer assets like bonds or gold. Another place investors have been putting money into energy stocks because with those, they tend to benefit from high oil prices. 

https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/oil-prices-jump-stocks-mixed-us-iran-standoff-132194793?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Oil Prices and Airline Ticket Surge Amid Iran Conflict

Rising tensions in the Middle East are sending shockwaves through global energy markets and the airline industry is feeling it directly. Conflict near the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil transit routes, has pushed oil prices sharply higher and jet fuel costs have followed.

That matters enormously for airlines because fuel isn't just a line item. It typically eats up 20% to 40% of total operating costs. When those costs spike airlines face an uncomfortable set of choices: cut routes, reduce flights, or raise ticket prices. Most are doing all three. Fewer seats in the market combined with higher operating costs is a reliable recipe for expensive airfare.

Economically this is a textbook negative supply shock. Higher input costs shift the supply curve left and the outcome is exactly what theory predicts: less output and higher prices. Passengers end up with fewer flight options and bigger bills. The geopolitical event happened thousands of miles away yet consumers at the airport booking counter feel the consequence directly.

What this situation really illustrates is how tightly connected global markets are. A regional conflict doesn't stay regional for long. It travels through energy markets, into industry cost structures, and eventually lands in the prices ordinary people pay. Businesses absorb what they can and pass the rest on and it's usually consumers who absorb the final blow. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/23/europe-jet-fuel-shortage-airlines-cut-flights.html?&qsearchterm=airline

Will he stay or will he go? With criminal probe over, Fed Chair Powell faces big decision

 This article really goes in depth on the uncertainty revolving around Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as his term on the chair comes to an end. It was recently announced that the Justice Department stepped away from the criminal probe involving renovations at Fed headquarters. Now Powell has to decide whether he will leave the Federal Reserve or remain as a governor until 2028. 

I think one of the most important points in this article is how much markets are watching Powell's decision. Investors and markets care about this because whoever leads the Fed has major control over interest rates and inflation. If Powell leaves, Trump could appoint another governor, giving him more influence over the Fed's decisions. Some people believe that by Powell staying, it could protect the Fed's independence, while others believe his departure could actually calm the markets. 

Overall, this situation shows how important trust and independence are in financial institutions like the Federal Reserve. If people believe that politics are controlling the Federal Reserve, and not economics, it may weaken confidence in the system. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/24/will-he-stay-or-will-he-go-with-criminal-probe-over-fed-chair-powell-faces-big-decision.html

How is AI Changing the Post-College Path

 A recent article released by CNBC highlights an increasing shift with undergraduate students looking towards graduate schools. Even though the labor market is stable on the surface, many students are feeling uncertain about their long-term careers. Unlike past trends where recessions trigger students to “hide out” in graduate school due to scarce job opportunities, this shift is being driven by artificial intelligence. With AI’s growing ability to automate entry-level jobs, specifically in business, tech, and administration roles, students are looking to continue their education as a form of protection. Graduate school is no longer about advancing your education and is more as a strategy to stay competitive and to delay joining a job market that feels unstable.

Debt is also a major factor in their decision. Graduate students usually take on significantly more loans than undergraduates, and with current changes to the federal student loan policies, it could impact access to professional degrees. These financial uncertainties are making students think more strategically about whether continuing their education really makes sense. 

The traditional path of stepping into an entry-level job after graduating college is being less reliable with this AI boom. In a world where technology is changing rapidly, students are looking for jobs that are protected from AI advances.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/18/ai-fears-graduate-school.html

USDA Reorganization Raises Economic Questions About Efficiency and Research

As part of a broad initiative to increase efficiency and decrease costs, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has begun a process of major restructuring within its Research, Education, and Economics (REE) department. In addition to removing staff from their offices in Washington, D.C., the program also seeks to streamline research activities so that they will be more aligned with the needs of agriculture.

The restructuration can be viewed as an attempt to achieve greater economic efficiency on two fronts. First, by reducing costs and streamlining operations, the government can spend less money. Second, it will help to make sure that agricultural policy is well informed and appropriately focused.

It should be noted that this approach might cause a decline in quality when cutting back and reorganizing research programs. The quality deterioration might harm farmers that use data from the department when making decisions and can result in lower productivity and instability of the market.

In conclusion, the efficiency of the program will be determined by how much the benefits will outweigh the risks associated with measures.

Trump to host bash for crypto investors tied to his coin sales

        U.S. President Donald Trump is slated to host cryptocurrency investors at his Mar-a-Lago property on the 25th of April. The crux of the ‘bash’ as it has been dubbed is to highlight Trump’s memecoin $Trump, which was launched days before the President took office. The event, hosted by Trump-backed Fight Fight Fight LLC, is set to host 297 of the world’s biggest crypto buyers, with 29 of the highest buyers getting access to an exclusive reception with President Trump. 

    The event has drawn significant criticism from many Democrats and ethicists, stating that the President is using his influence in office to enrich himself through his memecoin. Ethicists are concerned that the President is using this to peddle influence on cryptocurrency policy and enrich himself, rather than acting as a neutral party on certain policy. Law professor and former Bush ethics advisor Richard Painter believes that the actions of the President are akin to the original understanding of bribery, even if the actual U.S. legal code is not broken. 

    Economically, events such as the bash at Mar-a-Lago may have wide spreading consequences across crypto markets. President Trump has already been a very pro-crypto president, which can create an economic bubble in a non-productive sector, which has the capability to burst and cause enormous financial losses across the country. Additionally, memecoins are a very volatile market, without ties to any real backed assets. This can again lead to an economic bubble and eventual crash in cryptocurrency markets, causing millions, if not billions, of dollars in losses across the market. It will be interesting to see how the crypto market, and the economy as a whole, behaves with the actions of President Trump acting as a beneficiary of his own crypto policies. 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/23/trump-crypto-memecoin-event-mar-a-lago

European stocks lower as U.S.-Iran ceasefire deadline looms

 As the U.S and Iran ceasefire is reaching it's deadline, many notable European stocks are decreasing in price and European markets are lowering their expectations. Notable companies on the London Stock Exchange are significantly down compared a year ago. Associated British Foods is down 18% in profits and 2% in revenue compared to a year ago. Of course this isn't from the conflict but it has certainly had a impact on ABF's operations. On top of the conflict affecting European companies, it has affected unemployment as well. The United Kingdom surprisingly reported unemployment at 4.9% in February, when it was forecasted to be ~5.2%.

This article shows how international conflict can effect countries not involved by disrupting global supply chains, and energy supply. The conflict has triggered some economic instability in Europe and their businesses are being heavily affected. Oil and natural gas prices have increased which has spiked operational costs. With the uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, investors are scared of European companies not receiving the energy for operations and pulling out their investments.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/21/european-markets-stoxx-600-ftse-dax-cac-iran-latest-oil-prices.html

USA Rare Earth buys rare eath metals from South American country

 USA Rare Earth announced a $2.8 billion deal to buy the Brazilian mining company, Serra Verde. The payment will include both cash and stock, and the company expects the deal to be finalized by the third quarter of 2026 if it gets the required approvals. This move is mainly about reducing reliance on China, which currently controls most of the global supply and refining of rare earth elements. These materials are extremely important because they are used in things like electric vehicles, smartphones, and even military equipment, making them a big part of global competition.

By acquiring Serra Verde, USA Rare Earth would gain access to important elements like neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium, which are all needed to make high performance magnets. The deal also includes a long term agreement supported by U.S. government related groups, showing how serious the issue is for national security. Experts say rare earths are becoming more important as countries try to secure energy and technology advantages, especially as demand increases with the shift toward clean energy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/20/usa-rare-earth-serra-verde-minerals-china.html 

Here are all the ways the Iran war has affected the U.S. economy so far

     Th conflict that has been occurring in Iran has been affecting the US economy mostly by driving up the oil and gas prices. This is causing higher inflation especially with gas prices making everyday lives mire expensive. The overall economy hasn't taken a massive hit but if conflict continues to happen it could get worse. If these prices continue to go up PPI with increase which then will most likely increase CPI with will be bad for all of us. The FED Reserve is watching this conflict closely and if inflation stays high, it might delay cutting intrest rates which is going to make borrowing cost for things like homes and loans higher. Overall our economy is still staying pretty calm but If tension continues or gets worse we could have some serious problems coming in the near future. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/here-are-all-the-ways-the-iran-war-has-affected-the-us-economy-so-far.html

Fed Chair Nomination Becomes a Macro Event: Why Markets Care About Independence

The economic decisions front is not a data print; it is leadership and independence at the Fed. Kevin Warsh, nominated by President Trump for the Fed Chair, finds himself in the middle of a Senate confirmation process that is already impacting investor expectations for monetary policy. On an operational note, when there is fear of Fed Chairman appointment being political, inflation expectations will increase, rates and yields can rise, even without Fed hikes, as bond markets price that possibility.

It is important because the Fed’s mandate has both a technical and a credibility aspect. Weakening of the latter can be reflected in terms of higher funding costs, stronger US currency and greater volatility in stock and credit markets. This creates problems for the central bank’s reaction function – pre-emptive cuts can lead to a resurgence of inflation expectations, whereas overly restrictive policy creates risks of a recession. A politically contentious confirmation process adds to uncertainty when the economy is exposed to energy and supply side factors.

1) https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/fed-chief-nominee-warsh-pledges-new-divestment-updated-financial-filing-2026-04-20/

2) https://nypost.com/2026/04/20/business/fed-nominee-kevin-warsh-to-face-senate-grilling-over-independence-interest-rates/

Russia choosing war over welfare for how much longer

A rural town in northern Russia called Nikolsk is facing unprecedented cuts to its education system, with a decision to end upper-grade classes currently in the works. This reflects a broader, devastating trend: since 2000, Russia has lost almost 24,000 schools. As these schools close, the small settlements fighting to stay alive often disappear right along with them. Instead of supporting these communities, government officials have redirected spending toward their ongoing, so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine. This lack of support is especially frustrating for Nikolsk. The town has a couple of surviving businesses, including farms and a dairy plant, and has actually seen its population grow slightly, by about 100 residents, over the past 15 years. With even more development planned outside of town, government support for local schools is absolutely imperative for the survival of Russia's rural communities. Compounding the issue is a recent policy shift. Just last year, the Kremlin removed local self-governance, stripping villages of the ability to pass proposals that matter to their own residents. Moscow seems to be on a power trip, refusing to take any suggestions from locals even when holding town hall meetings. However, since April 9th, there have been hearings to challenge this decision.

Will Russia really continue to pull funding from its own schools just to fuel its ongoing conflict in Ukraine? Or are these local pressures the tipping point of the financial hardships Moscow is currently facing?

As Russia looks to slash budgets, a village fights to survive

Businesses can claim refunds for Trump tariffs ruled unconstitutional starting Monday

 Businesses can start claiming refunds on Monday for tariffs imposed by Donald Trump that were later ruled unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court. The refund process, managed by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will roll out in phases and may take 60–90 days per claim, with potential delays due to technical and procedural issues.

Importers must submit detailed documentation, and not all tariffs qualify immediately. While businesses will receive the refunds, they are not required to pass the savings on to consumers, though some companies, like FedEx, say they plan to reimburse customers. Overall, the process is complex, requires accuracy, and may take time to fully deliver financial relief.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/19/trump-tariffs-business-refunds.html 

Iran War, Effects on China

 China’s economy continued to grow at around 5% GDP, even during the U.S.–Israel–Iran war. However, the war has had only a limited impact on China so far, rather than being a major reason for its growth. Instead, China’s recent economic growth has been driven largely by strong manufacturing and exports.

It is interesting to consider how China’s growth model differs from those of other countries. While China has a very large population and many rural areas, which can affect productivity, the more important issue right now is weak domestic consumption. Consumer spending has slowed, creating an imbalance in the economy as growth relies more on exports than internal demand.

The global situation has still created challenges. Economic uncertainty and inflation in many countries have slowed consumer spending worldwide, which can eventually affect China’s export demand. In addition, investment has been weaker, particularly in the property sector, which has been struggling for a longer period of time and continues to drag on economic growth.

Although global tensions can disrupt energy markets and business activity, these effects have not been the main drivers of China’s current economic performance. Instead, the key concern is whether China can sustain growth as its population declines and consumption remains weak, since these two factors are closely connected and important for long-term stability.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gxjpekk19o

AI and Cybersecurity

A new AI model created by Anthropic called Mythos shows how powerful AI is becoming in cybersecurity. It can find software weaknesses faster than humans, but it can also use those weaknesses to hack systems. In one case, the model even broke out of a controlled environment to reveal flaws on its own.

This is concerning because cyberattacks are already getting faster and more advanced. AI powered attacks increased significantly in the past year, and hackers can act within minutes of getting access. Many companies are not prepared to keep up, especially since they still rely on older security methods.

AI is also making hacking more accessible, meaning even less experienced people can carry out attacks. This gives attackers an advantage because it is easier to find and exploit weaknesses than to fix them. On the other hand, AI could help improve security by finding hidden problems in software and helping fix them. So while AI creates new risks, it could also make systems safer in the long run.

Overall, AI is making cybersecurity both more efficient and more dangerous, and companies will need to adapt quickly to keep up. 

https://www.ft.com/content/b9e79c53-9f14-4b7a-b250-d7a230ca8433?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Wholesale Prices Rose, But Not As Expected

    Producer prices rose in March, but not nearly as high as expected. The producer price index was expected to rise much higher than it did due to the war in Iran. It rose by about 0.5% for the month which is much lower than the Dow Jones consensus estimated (1.1% was the expected amount). Excluding food and energy core PPI only rose by about 0.1% which was significantly lower than expected (0.5% was the estimate). Despite this annually PPI rose 4% which is the highest it has been since 2023. 

    Energy seemed to be the driver of this increase due to the war. Gasoline prices rose 15.7%, diesel by 42%, and jet fuel by 30.7%. The war in Iran has severely impacted the energy sector and has caused prices to rise significantly.  However, because the "services" side of the economy stayed relatively flat it offset some of the effects that energy would have had on inflation. 

    It seems like the Fed is expecting to keep interest rates stable. The outlook is that inflation is on the path toward the 2% goal. The chances of a rate cut occurring seems low at a 25% chance of a cut occurring for the rest of the year. Overall, it seems like the market is remaining relatively calm. It has been noted that since the ceasefire was announced oil prices have already reduced by 15%, suggesting that April's numbers should show further stability.

Wholesale prices rose 0.5% in March, much less than expected despite war impact

Middle East oil production plunges due to Iran war, OPEC data shows

Oil production across major Gulf countries haas dropped sharply due to the ongoing Iran war, according to OPEC data. Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia all saw significant declines, largely because exports through the Strait of Hormuz have been disrupted by attacks and instability. Saudi Arabia also faced damage to a key pipeline, further limiting output. Overall, OPEC production fell by 27% in March. 

While Iran's production decreased slightly, it has continued exporting oil, though it now faces a U.S. naval blockade after failed negotiations. Experts say it could take several months for Gulf countries to restore production levels, and the supply disruption has pushed global oil prices back up to around $100 per barrel.

Middle East oil production plunges due to Iran war, OPEC data shows

Global Talks Begin Over Hormuz Blockade

    President Trump has begun working with leaders from China, India, and Iran to finally end the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The blockade has caused a massive shock to the oil market, due to the importance of the Strait of Hormuz. These talks are a necessary step to prevent oil prices from staying at these elevated levels or even increasing in the future.

    One of the main concerns is that if a resolution isn't found, the continued uncertainty will continue to push energy costs higher. Energy prices affect everything from manufacturing to shipping to household maintenance. With major economies like the US, China, and India involved, it shows just how much is at stake for international trade. If the blockade issue cannot be resolved, we might see a more long-term shift in how energy reserves are managed. Along with that we could see trade agreements to avoid these types of shocks in the future.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/13/trump-hormuz-blockade-oil-shock-china-iran-india-vessels-peace-talks.html

U.S. Moves to Shut Down Key Oil Route After Iran Negotiations Collapse

President Donald Trump announced that the United States will begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz after peace talks with Iran in Pakistan ended without an agreement. The talks failed largely due to disagreements over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its broader demands, including control of the strait and financial reparations. This new movement aims to stop Iran from controlling and profiting from the key oil route, which carries a large share of the world’s energy supply.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global oil route, carrying about one-fifth of the world’s supply. Its disruption has already strained global markets, driving oil prices above $100 per barrel at times and increasing economic uncertainty worldwide.

Iran responded by warning that increased U.S. military presence in the area would violate the current ceasefire and could trigger retaliation. Iranian officials also signaled that non-military ships can still pass under certain rules, while criticizing the potential economic consequences, including rising gas prices.

Although Trump claimed allies would help enforce the blockade, support remains unclear. The United Kingdom indicated it would not participate, emphasizing the importance of keeping the waterway open for global trade.

The escalating situation raises concerns about further economic instability and the possibility of broader conflict if tensions continue to rise.

Trump says U.S. will blockade Strait of Hormuz after Iran peace talks fail

More business openings than closings in Oregon in last decade, despite economic stigma

 The stigma around the Oregon economy for some time has been pretty negative, especially around the city of Portland. The main topic of discussion is that businesses are closing by the handful, and their downtown locations are sinking. But what I have learned after reading this article, it is clear that there are some major positives not being given enough attention. Starting with Oregon has had more business openings compared to closures for the most part of the last 10 years and a similar rate in 2023. This is able to happen due to their workforce having higher education, there is a lower bar compared to other states to establish a business, receive a tremendous amount of support from the colleges/banks, and their growing population. Though there is progress, it comes with some warnings because the number of business openings decreased a bit after 2024, and compared to big factories, small shops do not employ more people, causing the unemployment rate to increase. 

New CPI data, Economy awaits Fed decsion on rates.

CPI rose 3.3% which some say was less than expected considering the war in Iran. Major increases in oil prices was one of the main causes for this increase in March.  With the new numbers everyone will wait on the Fed's decision on what to do with interest rates. There is inlfation going on while growth is slowly in the economy which puts the Fed in a tricky situation. 

    The past couple of years prices have been increasing but wages for many people have not been keeping up which has led to a slowing of the economy. I expect the Fed to cut rates to try and stimulate come growth but that will ultimately lead to higher rates of inflation. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2026/04/10/march-inflation-report-cpi--live/89503290007/

When the Rupee Sneezes, the Dollar Feels It

On March 30, 2026, the rupee crossed 95 per U.S. dollar for the first time in history. In three weeks, it lost 4% of its value. Brent crude surpassed $110 a barrel following escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States.

India imports 85% of its crude oil. Every $10 rise in oil prices adds roughly $15 billion to India's annual import bill. That bill is paid in dollars, which increases dollar demand and weakens the rupee directly.

Foreign investors pulled billions from Indian equities and bonds during the same period. Global capital moved into U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset. The dollar strengthened as a result, putting additional downward pressure on the rupee.

The U.S. and India had announced a trade framework weeks earlier. The agreement cut average U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to approximately 18%. A rupee at 95 versus 85 increases the rupee cost of Indian purchases of American goods by roughly 12%, partially offsetting the tariff reduction.

India's central bank intervened in foreign exchange markets using its reserve stockpile. It also imposed limits on banks' open dollar positions to reduce speculative pressure. The rupee rebounded temporarily following these measures.

India runs a persistent current account deficit, driven largely by its oil import bill. The country relies on foreign capital inflows to finance a portion of its growth. Both factors increase India's structural vulnerability to dollar strengthening and commodity price shocks.

The Reserve Bank of India held foreign exchange reserves of approximately $640 billion entering March 2026. Intervention draws down those reserves without addressing the underlying trade and capital flow dynamics. Reserve depletion itself can trigger further loss of investor confidence if sustained.

A weaker rupee makes Indian exports cheaper in dollar terms. India supplies roughly 40% of U.S. generic drug imports. Dollar strengthening therefore has direct implications for U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain costs.

RFK Jr. and FDA on peptides

 Peptides, popular among the younger generation offer an almost too good to be true solution to health problems. RFK Jr. is typically known to promote "natural" health remedies, with some calling him anti-vax, but he is now promoting peptides — short chain amino acids like BPD-157 and TB-500 which have notoriously been popular in body building forums, now popular in the Make America Healthy Again movement.

Healthy Secretary RFK Jr. has emerged as a vocal advocate for peptides, stating in a recent Joe Rogan podcast that he expects the FDA to reclassify approximately 14 different peptide drugs. His goal? To allow compounding pharmacies to distribute them legally again. Back in 2023 the Biden administration tightened the reins, which are now a little loser. Current consumers import peptides from the "gray market" from places like China, which are frequently mislabeled or contaminated. RFK hopes to move away from the "Big Pharma" bureaucracy to allow for more personalized health optimization. Will these peptides be used intelligently under professional consultation and supervision or will they be used by teens as unregulated DIY protocols aiming to looksmaxx? To be determined. 

This is part of RFK's larger shift to get people more freedom in the medical space. But the risk of running self-directed experimentation that can severely alter you biologically and cosmetically is potentially high. "By virtue of inducing broad cell growth, growth hormone-related peptides carry the potential risk of cancer," warns longevity expert Eric Topol.

https://www.statnews.com/2026/04/06/rfk-jr-apparent-contradiction-peptides-vaccines-medical-libertarianism/

Oil Prices Plunge, But Expectations Still Drive the Market

Geopolitics and economics are rarely far apart and the recent U.S.–Iran ceasefire makes that connection hard to ignore. After weeks of conflict, President Trump agreed to a two-week pause while Iran allowed limited passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets didn't wait around. WTI dropped more than 16% and Brent fell nearly 14%, both settling near $94 a barrel. That kind of move doesn't reflect a supply recovery. It reflects a shift in what people expect to happen next.

Here's the thing about markets: they price in the future, not the present. During the conflict, oil carried a hefty risk premium because roughly 20% of global supply flows through Hormuz. The ceasefire trimmed those fears and investors quickly repriced the risk. But the physical reality hasn't caught up yet. Tanker traffic is still limited, ship movements remain restricted and infrastructure damage hasn't disappeared overnight. So what actually changed? Expectations softened but the underlying conditions didn't fully follow.

That gap matters for the broader economy. Oil prices ripple through inflation, production costs and growth and when those prices swing on uncertainty rather than fundamentals, the volatility spreads. Financial markets react to anticipated events just as much as real ones, which makes expectations a genuine driver of the business cycle. The recent price drop is a signal of reduced fear, not restored stability. It's a reminder that you don't need supply to actually recover for markets to move as if it already has.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/oil-prices-iran-war-trump-deadline-strait-hormuz.html 

Oil Prices Fall as Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz

Following a two-week ceasefire announcement between the United States and Iran, Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the ceasefire lasts. This came after President Trump set a deadline for a ceasefire to be reached and threatened to blow up Iran's entire civilization if a deal was not reached. In response to the news, oil prices dropped massively. WTI has its worst day since April 27, 2020. Prices per barrel for both Crude and WTI oil are currently around $95. It's unclear what will happen when the ceasefire ends, but for now, oil prices are far lower. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/oil-prices-iran-war-trump-deadline-strait-hormuz.html