The stigma around the Oregon economy for some time has been pretty negative, especially around the city of Portland. The main topic of discussion is that businesses are closing by the handful, and their downtown locations are sinking. But what I have learned after reading this article, it is clear that there are some major positives not being given enough attention. Starting with Oregon has had more business openings compared to closures for the most part of the last 10 years and a similar rate in 2023. This is able to happen due to their workforce having higher education, there is a lower bar compared to other states to establish a business, receive a tremendous amount of support from the colleges/banks, and their growing population. Though there is progress, it comes with some warnings because the number of business openings decreased a bit after 2024, and compared to big factories, small shops do not employ more people, causing the unemployment rate to increase.
Saturday, April 11, 2026
Friday, April 10, 2026
New CPI data, Economy awaits Fed decsion on rates.
CPI rose 3.3% which some say was less than expected considering the war in Iran. Major increases in oil prices was one of the main causes for this increase in March. With the new numbers everyone will wait on the Fed's decision on what to do with interest rates. There is inlfation going on while growth is slowly in the economy which puts the Fed in a tricky situation.
The past couple of years prices have been increasing but wages for many people have not been keeping up which has led to a slowing of the economy. I expect the Fed to cut rates to try and stimulate come growth but that will ultimately lead to higher rates of inflation.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2026/04/10/march-inflation-report-cpi--live/89503290007/
When the Rupee Sneezes, the Dollar Feels It
On March 30, 2026, the rupee crossed 95 per U.S. dollar for the first time in history. In three weeks, it lost 4% of its value. Brent crude surpassed $110 a barrel following escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States.
India imports 85% of its crude oil. Every $10 rise in oil prices adds roughly $15 billion to India's annual import bill. That bill is paid in dollars, which increases dollar demand and weakens the rupee directly.
Foreign investors pulled billions from Indian equities and bonds during the same period. Global capital moved into U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset. The dollar strengthened as a result, putting additional downward pressure on the rupee.
The U.S. and India had announced a trade framework weeks earlier. The agreement cut average U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to approximately 18%. A rupee at 95 versus 85 increases the rupee cost of Indian purchases of American goods by roughly 12%, partially offsetting the tariff reduction.
India's central bank intervened in foreign exchange markets using its reserve stockpile. It also imposed limits on banks' open dollar positions to reduce speculative pressure. The rupee rebounded temporarily following these measures.
India runs a persistent current account deficit, driven largely by its oil import bill. The country relies on foreign capital inflows to finance a portion of its growth. Both factors increase India's structural vulnerability to dollar strengthening and commodity price shocks.
The Reserve Bank of India held foreign exchange reserves of approximately $640 billion entering March 2026. Intervention draws down those reserves without addressing the underlying trade and capital flow dynamics. Reserve depletion itself can trigger further loss of investor confidence if sustained.
A weaker rupee makes Indian exports cheaper in dollar terms. India supplies roughly 40% of U.S. generic drug imports. Dollar strengthening therefore has direct implications for U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain costs.
RFK Jr. and FDA on peptides
Peptides, popular among the younger generation offer an almost too good to be true solution to health problems. RFK Jr. is typically known to promote "natural" health remedies, with some calling him anti-vax, but he is now promoting peptides — short chain amino acids like BPD-157 and TB-500 which have notoriously been popular in body building forums, now popular in the Make America Healthy Again movement.
Healthy Secretary RFK Jr. has emerged as a vocal advocate for peptides, stating in a recent Joe Rogan podcast that he expects the FDA to reclassify approximately 14 different peptide drugs. His goal? To allow compounding pharmacies to distribute them legally again. Back in 2023 the Biden administration tightened the reins, which are now a little loser. Current consumers import peptides from the "gray market" from places like China, which are frequently mislabeled or contaminated. RFK hopes to move away from the "Big Pharma" bureaucracy to allow for more personalized health optimization. Will these peptides be used intelligently under professional consultation and supervision or will they be used by teens as unregulated DIY protocols aiming to looksmaxx? To be determined.
This is part of RFK's larger shift to get people more freedom in the medical space. But the risk of running self-directed experimentation that can severely alter you biologically and cosmetically is potentially high. "By virtue of inducing broad cell growth, growth hormone-related peptides carry the potential risk of cancer," warns longevity expert
https://www.statnews.com/2026/04/06/rfk-jr-apparent-contradiction-peptides-vaccines-medical-libertarianism/
Wednesday, April 8, 2026
Oil Prices Plunge, But Expectations Still Drive the Market
Geopolitics and economics are rarely far apart and the recent U.S.–Iran ceasefire makes that connection hard to ignore. After weeks of conflict, President Trump agreed to a two-week pause while Iran allowed limited passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets didn't wait around. WTI dropped more than 16% and Brent fell nearly 14%, both settling near $94 a barrel. That kind of move doesn't reflect a supply recovery. It reflects a shift in what people expect to happen next.
Here's the thing about markets: they price in the future, not the present. During the conflict, oil carried a hefty risk premium because roughly 20% of global supply flows through Hormuz. The ceasefire trimmed those fears and investors quickly repriced the risk. But the physical reality hasn't caught up yet. Tanker traffic is still limited, ship movements remain restricted and infrastructure damage hasn't disappeared overnight. So what actually changed? Expectations softened but the underlying conditions didn't fully follow.
That gap matters for the broader economy. Oil prices ripple through inflation, production costs and growth and when those prices swing on uncertainty rather than fundamentals, the volatility spreads. Financial markets react to anticipated events just as much as real ones, which makes expectations a genuine driver of the business cycle. The recent price drop is a signal of reduced fear, not restored stability. It's a reminder that you don't need supply to actually recover for markets to move as if it already has.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/oil-prices-iran-war-trump-deadline-strait-hormuz.html
Oil Prices Fall as Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz
Ceasefire Shifts Markets Toward Rate-Cut Expectations
Traders are now exploring the possibility of an interest rate cut by the end of the year, following the U.S.-Iran cease-fire agreement. This morning, the odds of a reduction jumped to about 43%, and market pricing is implying a 3.5% rate for the overnight borrowing benchmark, compared to the current effective level of 3.64%. Before this announcement, the market implied a 14% likelihood of cuts. Traders were expecting the Fed to be hesitant this year as the Iran conflict had sent energy prices through the roof. This threatens the central bank's efforts to get inflation back to 2% before the conflict in Iran markets had expected multiple Cuts this year in an effort to shore up the plodding labor market. The market is now just pricing in a clear skew toward one cut from the Fed this year. This week, the US market will receive data that offers two perspectives on inflation. The first one, this Thursday, the Commerce Department will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. This will show where inflation stood in February prior to the Middle East War. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index for March, which will reflect the price impact from the hostilities. Economists expect the PCE report to show headline inflation at 3% and core inflation. This excludes food and energy, which is at 2.8%. For the CPI, the expected readings for March are pegged at 3.3% and 2.7%. With all items reflecting the war-induced price increases. However, the Fed expects generally cautious tones from policymakers in the coming months.