Budget 2026 Customs changes explained: what gets cheaper, protected, or simplified.

The customs duty reforms in India’s 2026–27 Union Budget, as explained by Vivek Chaturvedi of the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs, show that trade policy is being used as a tool to support economic growth rather than just raise government revenue. By cutting or exempting duties on key inputs such as solar materials, critical minerals, defense repair equipment, healthcare drugs, and export-oriented goods, the government is lowering production costs and improving the global competitiveness of Indian manufacturers, especially in sectors tied to Make in India and export growth. At the same time, higher duties on certain finished products, like imported umbrellas, are meant to protect domestic MSMEs from being undercut by cheaper foreign imports. Beyond tariff changes, procedural updates—including faster customs clearance, expanded digital systems, longer validity for advance rulings, and greater flexibility for exporters through courier limits and duty deferment—reduce delays and uncertainty, which is particularly beneficial for small businesses. Changes to baggage rules and duty-free allowances also show how these reforms affect everyday consumers, not just firms. Overall, the reforms aim to strike a balance between protecting domestic industries, boosting exports, integrating India into global supply chains, and making the customs system simpler, more predictable, and more efficient.

https://www.edexlive.com/news/customs-duty-reforms-aim-to-boost-industry-exports-and-ease-of-living-cbic-chairman 

Project Vault: Trump Invests 12 billion in stockpile for critical minerals.

The Trump administration plans to create a stockpile in the U.S. for minerals listed as "critical" by the Interior Department. Necessary minerals like lithium, uranium, and copper will be apart of the stockpile including the 50 minerals deemed as critical. The goal of Project Vault is to reduce U.S dependence on China due to China being dominant in critical minerals and rare earths. The trade war between China and the U.S. is a threat to the U.S. economy and could potentially mean being cut off exports of critical minerals which are a vital material for defense, electronics, and energy industries.

The $12 billion going toward Project Vault has been provided by the U.S Export-Import Bank ($10 billion) and the rest comes from private capital. Additionally, this initiative has taken equity stakes in multiple mining companies including MP Materials, Commerce Department, Lithium Americas, and Trilogy Metals as an effort to strengthen them against competition in China.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/03/trump-stockpile-critical-minerals-reserve-project-vault.html

 US Inflation Expectations Drop Again, New Low For Sixth Straight Month

The University of Michigan survey on year-ahead inflation expectations reported another new low for Feb. 2026 at 3.5%, the lowest reading since Jan. 2025, and a contninuation from the last five months of reported lows. This report of 3.5% is a 0.5% drop from Jan. 2026, a 0.8% drop from Feb. 2025, and a 1.3% drop from the beginning of the initial decline back in Aug. 2025, which reported at 4.8%. 

Feburary's numbers also continue the trend of beating the forecast, as for Feb. 6, they reported 0.5% under the forecast of 4.0%, and the report prior, Jan. 2026 came in at 0.2% under the forecast with 4.0%. With consumer sentiment trending in the right direction, we look to be on track to return to the readings we saw in 2024, ranging from 2.6%-3.2%, and even the pre pandemic lows from 2018-19 which sat almost entirely below 3%.

Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/michigan-inflation-expectations

Private Sector hiring slumped in January, adding just 22,000 Jobs

 In January 2026,  U.S. private sector hiring was much smaller than what economists originally expected. According to the ADP National Employment Report, private sector businesses only added about 22,000 jobs, instead of the 45,000 jobs that were forecasted for the month. Most of the job gains came from the education and health services fields due to the aging population. The business field saw a significant loss of 57,000 jobs, which is the sharpest decline for that sector since August 2024. 

Economists are seeing this trend as part of a broader labor market slowdown that has been persistent over the last few years, where hiring is moderate and concentrated in just a few sectors. The report also said that the wage growth rate stayed relatively stable despite the slowdown. Elizabeth Renter, the chief economist with NerdWallet wrote in a note that, "weak and highly concentrated growth in the labor market translates to weaker growth across the economy." (Renter). 

https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/04/economy/us-adp-private-sector-jobs-january 

 

How U.S. trade uncertainty is buffeting small business

Small businesses make up about a third of U.S. international trade and employ almost 46% of American workers. Even though they play a key role in the economy, new research from Harvard Business School shows that many small and medium sized companies are struggling to survive as U.S. trade policy becomes more unpredictable.

A survey of over 4,000 small and medium-sized businesses found that quick changes in tariffs, being announced, delayed, withdrawn, and brought back, make it almost impossible for owners to predict costs, set prices, or sign long-term supplier contracts. Researchers say this uncertainty acts like a tax, making businesses delay hiring, put off investments, or rethink expanding.

Small businesses usually don’t have the cash reserves, legal help, or flexible supply chains that big companies do to handle sudden policy changes. Many depend on imported materials and can’t easily switch to domestic options, which are often more costly or hard to find. As a result, trade volatility hits smaller firms harder.

What stands out to me is not just the tariffs themselves, but how unstable they are. Even businesses willing to pay more can’t operate effectively when the rules keep changing. Economic policy does not happen in isolation; consistency is just as important as intent.

This uncertainty also gives bigger companies more power. Businesses with lawyers, consultants, and global supply chain experts can adapt more easily, while smaller firms are left to react rather than plan. Over time, this creates an uneven playing field that helps large corporations and makes it harder for small businesses to compete.

The effects go beyond just financial numbers. Small businesses are closely connected to their communities as employers, service providers, and sources of local stability. When they cut back or close, it leads to job losses, reduced access to goods and services, and fewer opportunities for people to move up economically.

Whether you support or oppose tariffs, the research shows one clear point: a predictable trade policy is important. Without a stable, clear system, uncertainty stunts growth and survival, especially for small businesses, the backbone of the U.S. economy.

https://www.hbs.edu/bigs/us-trade-uncertainty-buffeting-small-business

Trump Responds to EU-India Trade Deal with His Own

 The U.S. and India announced a huge trade overhaul that greatly affects global economic ties. President Trump and PM Modi agreed to cut reciprocal tariffs to 18% which is down from highs of 25 - 50%. This new 18% on tariffs for India is lower than both Vietnam's (20%) and China's which is a lot higher. A reason for this is that the U.S. is trying to move supply chains away from China, so giving India a lower tariff India becomes a very attractive place for companies to build their products. As part of the U.S. - India deal, India is committing to buying $500 billion worth of American products (oil, fam goods, etc.) and will also stop purchasing crude oil from Russia.

This comes right after India signed a similar deal with the European Union (EU). This shows just how much India is attempting to diversify their partners and increase their global economic connections. Overall, this deal is beneficial to both parties with the U.S. moving toward reciprocal trade, while India obtaining more market access to a larger export partner.

Citation: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/03/trump-us-india-trade-deal-europe-india-deal-compared.html

US Edu department proposes overhaul of Federal student loans, sets new caps on graduate borrowing

The U.S. Department of Education is proposing major changes to federal student loans, mainly for graduate and professional students. One of the biggest changes is eliminating the Grad PLUS loan program, which currently allows students to borrow almost unlimited amounts. Instead, the government wants to set clear limits on how much students can borrow each year and overall. Graduate students would have lower borrowing caps, while students in professional programs like law or medical school would be allowed higher limits. The goal is to prevent students from taking on overwhelming debt.

These changes are meant to make student loans simpler and more affordable in the long run. By limiting how much students can borrow, the government hopes to slow rising tuition costs and reduce financial stress after graduation. The plan would also simplify repayment by reducing the number of repayment options, making loans easier to understand and manage. The proposal is not final yet and is open for public comment, but if approved, it could significantly change how students pay for higher education.

Citation : https://www.edexlive.com/news/us-edu-department-proposes-overhaul-of-federal-student-loans-sets-new-caps-on-graduate-borrowing?utm

China and the U.K. Resetting Economic Ties

China and the United Kingdom are taking steps to rebuild their relationship after years of tension. The U.K. prime minister’s visit to China, the first in eight years, signals a shift toward renewed economic cooperation. Both sides discussed expanding trade and collaboration in areas such as finance, artificial intelligence, and clean energy.

The U.K. is also trying to diversify its trade partners amid global economic uncertainty and changing U.S. trade policies. While security concerns still exist, the visit shows that economic stability and long term growth are key priorities for both countries.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/29/china-uk-starmer-xi-relations-visit-businesses-.html