Inflation, Policy Shifts, and the Uncertain Path Ahead

 The global economy is entering a period of slower growth, and many of the pressures driving this shift are becoming harder to ignore. Rising tariffs, ongoing supply-chain complications, and geopolitical tensions have kept production costs elevated, which in turn has sustained higher-than-expected inflation across many countries. Even though major economies avoided recession recently, underlying structural weaknesses are becoming more visible. This combination of slowing momentum and persistent price pressures has created an environment where central banks must tread carefully, balancing inflation control with the risk of tightening financial conditions too much.

In the United States, the situation reflects this broader uncertainty. The recent government shutdown delivered a noticeable hit to output, and while consumer spending has stayed resilient, business investment is starting to cool as firms wait for clearer direction on interest rates and fiscal policy. The Federal Reserve is expected to begin lowering rates to support borrowing and investment, but this comes with its own risks if inflation hasn’t fully stabilized. As a result, the U.S. economy now sits at a crossroads, still expanding, but increasingly vulnerable. How policymakers respond in the coming months will determine whether 2026 brings renewed growth or a more pronounced economic slowdown.

Source: 

https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-september-2025_67b10c01-en.html?

Private payroll losses accelerated in the past four weeks

 There is a lot of concern about the current health of the U.S. labor market.  The market itself has been showing signs of weakening, even with the lack of data being released as a result of the government shutdown.  In the past couple of weeks, ADP has been the source of data regarding the labor market.  They have reported that there was a loss of 13,500 jobs a week in the private company sector over the span of the last four weeks.  As a frame of reference, there was a loss of 2,500 per week in the previous update that was given.  As a result of the government shutdown, there will again not be a lot of data to use for the FED when it meets again in December.  Advocation for a cut has shifted the market to expect a cut to rates in the next month, and there is little data that will be released to alter that expectation.  The Goldman team has said that they believe that there will be two more cuts following the December rate cut, come the new year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/private-payroll-losses-accelerated-in-the-past-four-weeks-adp-reports-.html

The Debate Over Minnesota Welfare Fraud and Somalia

A recent City Journal report claims that money stolen in several large Minnesota welfare fraud schemes may have indirectly reached the Somalia-based terror group Al-Shabaab. Citing unnamed federal counterterrorism sources, the article argues that fraudulently obtained U.S. funds, particularly from Minnesota’s Somali community, are sometimes sent overseas through informal “hawala” money-transfer networks, where Al-Shabaab allegedly takes a cut. The report links this claim to major fraud scandals such as the “Feeding Our Future” case, which has resulted in more than 50 convictions tied to an alleged $300 million pandemic-era scam, along with newer fraud cases involving Medicaid Housing Stabilization Services and autism services. Some former investigators and political figures quoted in the article say the issue has been under-addressed due to political sensitivities around Minnesota’s large Somali population.

Federal prosecutors, however, have not charged anyone in these cases with terrorism-related offenses, focusing instead on large-scale financial theft. Still, former law enforcement officials say that even unintentional remittances can benefit Al-Shabaab because the group taxes economic activity inside Somalia. Critics argue that this creates a risk that stolen U.S. welfare funds could indirectly support terrorism. Others note that the claims rely heavily on anecdotal sources rather than confirmed evidence, showing the need for careful investigation rather than broad assumptions about Minnesota’s Somali community.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/somali-terror-group-al-shabaab-taking-a-cut-of-millions-in-stolen-minnesota-taxpayer-money-from-welfare-fraud-scheme-report/ar-AA1QR7SD?ocid=BingNewsVerp

End of the "Rip Off" Economy

 This article is focused on how AI is beginning to rapidly reduce the information advantages which was allowing companies to overcharge consumers. AI gives people price comparisons, diagnostic help, and is able to weaken the normal imbalance between customer and consumer. This article reveals that AI is going to help people with identifying quality, make better/more informed choices, avoid hidden issues. Markets are improving but industries such as home repairs, law, or real estate still have a large information gap that costs consumers millions to billions of dollars every year.

AI is already prevalent and working in some apps used to compare prices, report issues, etc. But the article also highlights that business will implement AI which creates a competitive environment for both sides. The "Rip Off Economy" is not gone but is definitely declining as of late. 

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/10/27/the-end-of-the-rip-off-economy

AI Takes Over Holiday Shopping

This holiday shopping season is different because AI has adopted new features to make it easier for people to find and buy perfect gifts. Big stores like Amazon, Target, and Walmart now have smart chatbots acting like personal shopping assistants, helping shoppers sort through gifts, read reviews, and even buy things without leaving the chat. For example, in September, OpenAI launched an instant checkout feature in ChatGPT, letting people buy items from stores such as Etsy without leaving the chat. Amazon also rolled out a tool that tracks price drops and can automatically buy items if they fit someone’s budget, and Google announced an AI assistant that calls stores to check prices or product stock.​

Because these companies invest so much in AI, they are likely to keep pulling ahead of smaller stores. Their technology helps people shop faster, with more choices and confidence, making it hard for small businesses without the same tools to keep up. What kinds of jobs do you think will be most needed as more stores start using AI shopping assistants?

Read the article here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/technology/chatgpt-holiday-shopping.html