FIFA Raises Prize Money for 2026 World Cup as Soccer Revenue Grows

 FIFA has increased the prize money for the FIFA World Cup 2026. The total prize pool will be about $655 million, and the winning team could earn around $50 million, the highest ever. The 2026 tournament will be hosted mainly in the United States, along with Canada and Mexico. The tournament is expected to generate more than $10 billion in revenue across host nations, driving massive spending on infrastructure, tourism, and media rights and offering a big financial boost to local economies and national associations.  

 However, some teams and economists warn that rising costs and travel demands might outweigh gains for smaller football associations, showing that bigger prize pools don’t automatically mean more profit for all.  

https://www.reuters.com/article/soccer-worldcup-prizemoney-2026-idUSL1N3C22XY

What’s at Stake for Oil Markets as Trump Strikes Iran

 With the recent military strikes on Iran from the United States, there is a new risk to oil markets around the world. At the moment, it is not known if energy facilities were damaged, but Iran produces a little over 3 million barrels of oil per day, which translates to about 3 percent of the global supply. Since the damage has been done, the shipping route through the Straight of Hormuz has slowed down due to oil tankers avoiding it, causing crowding near the entrance and leading people to panic, believing the route is at risk of disruption. Current traders are monitoring whether there will be a real disruption to Iran's exports and whether the Straight of Hormuz could close, causing prices to increase significantly. 

US strikes against Iran could see oil prices jump!

 According to a recent report by Yahoo Finance, military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran may cause oil prices to rise by $10 to $20 per barrel.

Oil prices tend to rise when there is conflict in the Middle East because the Middle East produces a large percentage of the world’s oil. Investors may be worried that the conflict may cause an interruption in the supply of oil, particularly near the Strait of Hormuz, which is an important waterway that carries most of the world’s oil.

If oil prices rise, gas prices may also rise in the United States. Higher gas prices may cause food prices and other prices to rise because transportation costs may be higher.

It remains to be seen if prices will continue to rise. If the situation calms down, oil prices may stabilize. If the situation gets worse, prices may continue to rise.

 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-strikes-against-iran-could-see-oil-prices-jump-10-to-20-or-more-with-no-deescalation-143847017.html

How could the U.S. strikes in Iran affect the world's oil supply?

 U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have raised concerns about potential disruptions to global oil markets, though the immediate impact on production and trade remains uncertain. Oil prices have already been climbing due to fears of conflict, even before markets reopen. Despite heavy sanctions, Iran still exports roughly 1.9 million barrels of oil per day, much of it to China via “shadow” tankers that evade restrictions. However, analysts note that China holds large strategic and commercial reserves, and the global market is currently oversupplied, which could cushion the blow if Iranian exports are reduced.

The greater risk lies in how Iran might retaliate. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which about 20% of global oil supply passes each day. If Iran were to disrupt or close the Strait, oil prices could spike dramatically and immediately. An even more severe scenario would involve Iran targeting oil facilities in neighboring Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, or Qatar. While past flare-ups avoided direct attacks on energy infrastructure and kept oil flows steady, a broader regional escalation could have far more serious consequences for global energy markets and the wider economy.

https://www.npr.org/2026/02/28/nx-s1-5678603/iran-strikes-oil-energy-markets 

NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani meets with President Trump over new affordable housing investment in New York

On Thursday, Mamdani met with Trump to discuss investment in a 21 million dollar housing project in queens desgined to build 12,000 homes near the busiest rail in the city.  New York, like many big cities are struggling with a housing crisis, due to the high demand and lack of rising supply of housing. Economically, this has been linked to the high regulatory cost of building affordable housing in cities like New York. An investment in affordable housing would benefit many struggling New York families, but it may cost more than estimated, and it is going to be hard to raise such funds. Apparently, although critical of Mamdani from the start, Trump seemed 'enthusiastic' about the project, and may be on board (perhaps due to the fake newspaper Mamdani's team created). It will be interesting to see if MAmdani's charm and Trump's desire to be seen as powerful and likable will lead to his support of such a progressive investment. 

 https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/mamdani-pitches-trump-on-housing-investments-by-with-mocking-up-newspaper-with-his-name-in-the-headline

United States and Israel joint strike against Iran - Morning of Feb 28th 2026

 President Trump announced "major combat operations" against Iran this morning. Citing the imminent danger that Iran and it's support groups pose to the United States. Specifically nuclear and long range missile threats. The United States believes Iran or it's support groups have the ability to make a nuclear bomb and the US fears that threat. 

Iran has already began retaliating by launching missile and drone strikes toward Israel and U.S. military installations in the Gulf. Explosions have been reported near bases in Kuwait and Qatar

This is the first daylight raid the US has done in this area in a long time. 

This is the first public joint operation. The President wants everyone to know this happened. 

This morning's strikes are targeting missile factories, naval assets, and leadership compounds. 

How does this relate to the June strikes? Where we supposedly setback the Iranian nuclear program 2 years. Those strikes were not as effective as thought. The underground bunkers remained largely intact. So the US is trying to further delay their nuclear program with a longer term operation. 

What is the broader picture, relating to the economy? 

Is Israel prompting the US to start this conflict to boost their economy to fund the ongoing war with palestine? That's a complicated questioned and very faceted. Short answer no. A large scale war with Iran brings too many further complications and would not be worth it to Israel. 

For the United States this means increased economic activity in manufacturing, specifically in Ohio and Florida where munitions and hardware are developed. The other face of this is shipping costs and Oil prices. If the conflict reaches major shipping lines like the Strait of Hormuz oil prices could jump to over $100 a barrel. 

Is Climate Change Making Inflation Worse?

 There is evidence pointing to a correlation between inflation changes and extreme weather events, but the causation is a bit more complicated than that. There are many factors of the economy affected by climate change. Some examples of these affects are the extreme temperatures that have lowered inflation. Droughts can increase it, and in wealthy countries, heat increases inflation.

In the past year, supply shocks in the agriculture world were caused by low rainfall. Less supplies means higher prices. These shocks are fueled by political issues between countries making it difficult to assist those facing these events. Droughts also affect the waterways used for trade.

Climate change can also mess with electric grids, increasing energy prices. The change in the infrastructure of energy grids is affected, but energy use is also greatly affected with extreme weather incidents.

One of the obvious expenses from weather events is for repairs of damaged properties.

These expenses are coming from Americans with an estimate of paying between $400-900 per person annually. The group of estimators that found that info also found that agriculture has been less affected by weather changes while the higher expenses are in insurance, food damages, and health complications. They predict these costs will start increasing at an increasing rate.

There are also costs in the policies made to prevent climate change.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/23/climate/climate-change-prices-inflation.html

A.I. Paradox and Efficiency Fueled Inflation

 Technological breakthroughs are often viewed as purely deflationary, where better tech should lower costs and boost supply. In contrast, recent reports from Citadel Securities suggests that we may be facing "efficiency fueled inflation". 

While markets are focused on AI and its ability to replace human workers, the direct reality is a massive boom in Capex, creating a perfect storm for the business cycle. Commodity and infrastructure will take an immediate hit, where the push for data centers has sent memory prices up 660%, creating a massive demand for construction labor. This data center surge, which is estimated to create 4.3 million new jobs, is placed at the same time as more restrictive immigration policies. Essentially, labor supply contraction is meeting labor demand spikes. 

While artificial intelligence is a fantastic tool for future efficiency an technological growth, presently it is a massive driver of aggregate demand and resource scarcity that could potentially keep interest rates higher for longer. 

https://www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-insights/infl-ai-tion-risks/

Hot inflation data jolts Fed outlook

The article reports that the Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped far more than expected, rising 0.8% in January, the largest monthly increase in three years. The biggest driver was a 2.5% surge in trade‑services margins, meaning wholesalers and retailers raised markups sharply. Many economists believe this reflects firms passing through higher import costs from tariffs, which is now showing up in upstream inflation data. This is especially concerning because PPI feeds directly into core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, meaning the spike will likely show up in broader inflation measures soon.

The market reacted immediately, with the Dow falling 521 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also declining as investors reassessed the likelihood of near‑term rate cuts. Analysts noted that the hotter PPI print caused many to push back expectations for the first Fed rate cut, with some now projecting that easing may not begin until mid‑year or later. Because several components of PPI flow directly into core PCE, the report raised concerns that the upcoming PCE release will complicate the Fed’s disinflation narrative. The article also emphasized that sticky services inflation combined with tariff‑driven cost pressures makes the “last mile” of disinflation much harder than markets had assumed. As a result, investors broadly repriced risk, reflecting growing uncertainty about whether inflation will continue to cool smoothly or reaccelerate as businesses keep passing higher import costs on to consumers.

Hot inflation data jolts Fed outlook

Netflix walks away from Warner Bros deal, clearing the path for Paramount

 Netflix and Paramount have been in one of the most intense bidding wars that Hollywood has seen in recent years. Warner Bros. Discovery has been weighing different offers from each of these companies, and each has a slightly different strategy. Netflix is proposing deals in which it would take over only Warner's entertainment division. This includes the streaming platform HBO. It was a $72 billion, cash deal that Warner's Board backed and scheduled a shareholder vote. Paramount entered the battle with a $77.9 billion hostile bid, but came back with an even larger bid at $31 a share (currently $28.17). This bid is higher than Netflix's bid, and it also shows Paramount's desire for the entire company, not just the entertainment division. 

If Netflix came out on top, it would have strengthened its dominance in the field by adding franchises like Harry Potter, DC, and all of HBO's legendary films. Paramount's after more than just this. They want CNN, Discovery, and all cable networks owned by Warner Bros. Analysts argue that the winner of this bidding war will shape the foreseeable future, influencing consumer prices and content budgets. This does raise legal concerns, as a major consolidation could reduce competition, creating only a few large powerhouses.

Warner Bros has been granted a 7-day period from Netflix to consider Paramount's best and final offer. Officially, the board supports Netflix, but if they decide that Paramount's offer is better, Netflix will have 4 days to match or exceed this offer. This is huge news in the entertainment industry and could shape the future of how we use streaming platforms.

https://apnews.com/article/warner-paramount-netflix-5ddba4049473903b35b65e62e37d66bf

Are Jack Dorsey’s aggressive job cuts the start of an AI jobs apocalypse? Economists weigh in

     This article focuses on how the Ceo of Block Jack Dorsey is planning on laying half off his employees. Block is a company that is focused on financial services like Cash App, After-pay, and Bitcoin. The reason Jack Dorsey is pushing the agenda to lay off 4,000 workers is because he wants to cut expenses on employees and but that money on the investment of capital for the company. 

    Jack says that most companies will follow in the upcoming year; he stated his company just wanted to start this layoff earlier rather than be pushed into it. But, economist says this is not the rise of AI taking jobs. Economist says that this is just what happen during periods of rapid expansion and retrenchment. Even though we are in a "slow hire, slow fire" environment it is said that the labor market is nothing worry about for the moment. 

The article focuses on how with the invention of the ATM struck fear into the labor market for how this would replace the jobs of tellers. The thing is we still have tellers; we just have found how to implement  new tasks for tellers to do. This is what most economist expect to happen with the influence of AI, there will be jobs getting taken away by AI but there will be an equal or greater amount of jobs created from the implantation of AI.

Article

Leaders in Global AI Gather at the India AI Impact Summit 2026: Technology and Policy Meet

The India AI Impact Summit 2026, a significant international gathering of government officials, tech CEOs, and policy experts focused on the future of artificial intelligence and its global impact, took place in New Delhi in the middle of February 2026. A growing attempt to influence how AI is created, regulated, and used globally was indicated by the gathering, which brought together leaders from over 30 countries and some of the biggest names in the field, including representatives from Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and more. High-level speakers emphasized the need for ethical, inclusive, and people-oriented AI governance, particularly as countries attempt to make a balance between innovation and social responsibility. Prime Minister Narendra Modi opened the summit. AI's applications in healthcare, agriculture, and education as well as its effects on employment markets and national security were among the topics of discussion. At the event, a new AI Impact Summit Declaration was unveiled, detailing pledges made by participating nations on cross-border collaboration, ethical standards, and the use of AI in the public sector. The summit was not without controversy, as some questioned technology branding and organizational problems, especially with regard to the representation of specific foreign products. The summit demonstrated the growing strategic importance of new tech diplomacy and was one of the biggest international AI policy meetings in recent memory.

 https://iapp.org/news/a/notes-from-asia-pacific-region-ai-impact-summit-showcases-global-vision-toward-responsible-ai

Trump touts a 'roaring economy' in his State of Union as Americans continue to struggle

 President Trump’s State of the Union address painted a picture of America “back bigger, better, richer and stronger than ever before,” highlighting a booming economy, his 2025 tax cuts, and aggressive trade policies. He emphasized unilateral tariffs, mass deportations, and border security, framing them as essential for national strength, while touting initiatives like “Trump accounts” to help children save for the future. Trump also wove in moments of bipartisan appeal, honoring the U.S. Olympic men’s hockey team and calling for legislation to ban stock trades by lawmakers, though many proposals would still require congressional action.

Yet, much of his address clashed with public perception. Polls indicate many Americans remain dissatisfied with the economy and his overall leadership, and several Democratic lawmakers vocally challenged him over his immigration policies and handling of national tragedies. Critics also noted the address avoided key controversies, such as incomplete releases of the Epstein files, leaving some to see it as more showmanship than substance. While Republican leaders praised the speech as a strong showcase of America’s progress, analysts and Democrats suggested it offered little concrete policy clarity or bipartisan solutions.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-roaring-economy-state-union-americans-struggle-rcna259802

Global Cash is Fueling a Historic Start for Latam Stocks

 Global Cash is Fueling a Historic Start for Latam Stocks 

Markets in Latin American countries, including Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, are seeing a sudden surge in foreign investment and buying. The current growth is the fastest increase in over a decade, with the MSCI EM Latin America Index rising by more than 20% in 2026. 

Renewed economic interest in Latin America is partially the result of upcoming presidential elections in Brazil and Colombia, where policy shifts may create more favorable interest rates at central banks. For example, it is expected that Brazil’s central bank will lower its base interest rate from a record high of 15% in March. Additionally, a recent decision from the US Supreme Court struck down many of President Trump's sweeping tariffs, allowing easier and more affordable trade with the LA region. 

However, local investors are more cautious about the long-term effects of such political changes than foreigners. Indeed, many are still painfully aware of the “lost decade” of near-zero per capita GDP growth from 2015-2024. Nonetheless, there is no doubt that Latin America is an emerging market to keep an eye on– its performance is outpacing its peers, with more diversification away from US assets that have limited Latin American nations previously.

Economic Data Suggests Interest Rate Cuts Aren’t Imminent

     Recent data on jobs and inflation has eased the urgency to make additional cuts to the interest rate. The open market committee may wait now until June or July before they cut rates again. This is primarily due to January's jobs report showing stronger than expected. There was an unexpected gain of 130,000 nonfarm payrolls, which is the best performance since 2024. With sustained improvements in employment and continued progress towards the target, 2% inflation could justify pausing further easing. Currently, inflation is at 2.4%, which is slightly above the 2% target but trending downwards, and with the firmer job growth, it reduces the immediate need for aggressive rate cuts at this time. 

    These developments shape expectations for the months ahead; markets anticipate that the open market committee will hold rates at the March 18th meeting. This, however, needs to be supported by February's employment, inflation, job openings, and retail sales data to determine if January's numbers are a true trend. The new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, introduces the possibility of potential cuts to happen later in the year. However, no major policy shift has been priced into the markets yet. There will likely only be two to three rate cuts during 2026, and these cuts will likely be during the second half of the year. The first move may not happen until summer. The next key point and determinant of how rate cuts will play out this year will be the March 6th jobs report, which would either reinforce the case for waiting or reopen the idea of an earlier easing. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/02/23/economic-data-suggests-interest-rate-cuts-arent-imminent/ 

The Impact of Sci-Fi on the Outlook of AI

Everyone loves a good science fiction story or movie for entertainment. However, as our real-world technology gets more and more advanced, these stories may be impacting how we view the future of AI. 

The Brookings Institution recently published a paper discussing the future of AI and how sci-fi has impacted our outlook on its future. In general, many people assume that AI will replace humans in many jobs and fear that this will lead to job shortages and increased unemployment. The paper released by the Brookings Institution discusses that the AI community was somewhat influenced by sci-fi and envisions AI as machines that act similarly to the human brain and will be more capable than humans. It will likely be cheaper than human labor, and so, people assume it will replace humans. This is how AI is portrayed in many sci-fi stories, and the authors of the paper suggest that this may not really be an accurate view of AI. The authors suggest that the reason the human replacement view of AI is so prevalent is that it matches up with “science fiction narratives.”

The paper then explains that the view which sees AI as a complement to humans is, in reality, much more likely. Science fiction is, in reality, just fiction, and AI may actually turn out to be a pro-worker force. To support this view, the authors provided a few historical examples. First, the job market will change in order to accommodate AI while still maintaining a need for human jobs. Research from 2024 shows that in 2018, six out of every ten workers were employed in jobs that did not exist in 1940. AI will change the job market in some ways and will require some adaptation, but it is unlikely to make human workers obsolete. 

The author also discussed how tech has enhanced many pre-existing jobs. The digital spreadsheet, for example, had a huge impact on accounting and finance jobs and helped them to become more efficient. The authors suggest that in the real world, AI has actually been making human workers more valuable by allowing them to be more productive. 

Finally, the authors point out that AI is ultimately under human control, so humans will continue to have valuable roles. The government may also step in at some point with changes in taxes to encourage the hiring of more workers if AI does become too much of an issue, in the same way that they have encouraged new technologies through spending and tax cuts.

 Overall, this paper explains that our outlook on the future of AI may be a bit more dramatic than reality. We have an underlying perception of AI replacing humans, which is heavily influenced by fiction. AI will likely not replace human workers, but the job force will need to adapt and will likely become more productive because of AI advancements. 

https://www.axios.com/2026/02/25/ai-chatgpt-jobs-market

https://apple.news/AAcK1f8DoSmeLf959GYXCFw

 

The Global M&A is Rolling into 2026, Sparked by AI

     The M&A (mergers and acquisitions) market is blowing up at the moment. This is because in 2025 companies spent almost $5 trillion on business deals and that momentum is carrying straight into 2026. A lot of this is being drive by AI and the battle to purchase the tech, data centers, and energy so companies can keep up with one another. There are already lot of huge deals going on costing over $5 billion in 2026. This is similar to 2025 where there was a total of 60 deals that topped the $10 billion mark, which is the most we've seen in years. Companies are basically playing a large-scale game of catch-up where big companies are merging to ensure they have the resources needed to keep AI running.

    The issue is even though everyone wants to make these moves, cash is actually getting really tight. Referred to as a "capital squeeze" is happening because building AI infrastructure is incredibly expensive. We will need almost more than double of our current data center capacity by 2030 to keep up with the advancement of AI. Due to this companies' money supplies are being drained. This is causing companies to be more selective in what they choose to invest in.

Below is a graph of some recent "Mega-deals" by year

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/25/global-ma-boom-surges-2026-ai-mega-deals-capital-squeeze-merger-and-acquisition.html

Are trading cards comparable to investments?

Last week, Logan Paul sold a Pokémon card to AJ Scaramucci, son of Anthony Scaramucci, for an astound $16.5 million. This marks the largest auction and selling of a Pokémon card in history. The card, which was made in 1998 and is estimated to be one of only a few dozen, was purchased by Paul 4 years prior for only $5.3 million, netting Paul a return of over 200%. Scaramucci claims that the purchase is "passion first, and kind of an investment second," meaning that the bid was not made entirely for monetary profit.

The "Pokémon Index," a measure of the value of  Pokémon cards, is currently up 145% in the past year. Compare this to S&P 500 which is only up 15.2% the past year, and the choice of where to invest seems obvious. However, Pokémon cards are a very risky asset, if even an asset at all. Their value comes from scarcity and collector's perceptions of how "rare" they think certain cards are. This causes many to view them as an unstable and unreliable form of investment.

Using collectibles as a form of wealth building is incredibly interesting to me. Their value can change quickly as more cards are brought into and taken out of circulation. A card that is worth a million to one person may be seen as worthless to another, so viewing them as an "investment" is entirely subjective. Having a few cards myself I can definitely say I have only ever viewed them as fun and have never thought about what their worth would be in future years, but maybe I should go back and see if any of them have gained value.

Article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/25/pokmon-card-winner-scaramucci-says-collectibles-are-asset-class.html

Has the labor market grown stagnant and where will this lead?

During the years of the covid pandemic there was a period known as the "great resignation" where job movements were volatile. The rate of hiring, firing, and quitting was extremely rapid during that time. This was due to large numbers of people quitting their jobs, leaving many vacancies, and ultimately forcing businesses to create incentives, such as signing bonuses and increased salaries, to fill up those positions. 

Now we are in a time that some are calling the "big stay", which reflects the idea that we are in a period of very little firing and very little hiring. This is due to people "hoarding" their jobs out of fear of returning to the extreme volatility of the Covid years and not being able to retain jobs/employees.

This has caused the labor market to move like a pendulum. During the pandemic it swung so far to one side that for every worker out of work two job openings were available. It has now swung too far to the other side, which has resulted in not much movement in the job market. This stagnation could be seen as a sign of stability, but it may lead to increased unemployment.

This "big stay" could result in unemployment numbers rising because as more people enter the labor force, they are having a hard time finding jobs due to the lack of openings. Ultimately, this may end up harming the economy due to stagnant movement, decreased competition, and increased unemployment. It would be ideal for the labor market to stop swinging as drastically and return to a less volatile movement. Overall, it can be seen that the labor market has grown stagnant after a period of extreme volatility. 

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/19/life-after-the-great-resignation-incentives-are-dimming-for-workers-to-change-jobs.html

How AI is Changing Policy's

 On Tuesday, February 24, 2026, Lisa Cook, the governor of the Federal Reserve, suggested that AI could be the reason the central bank will have to make difficult decisions between keeping interest rates elevated to slow inflation from rising or lowering interest rates to address lower employment. Cook explains that AI has been driving productivity, and if this continues, even if firms stop using AI, the labor market will lead to an increase in unemployment. Cook builds on this by saying that because of the AI transition, the new policies the FED is contemplating could have a profound effect on monetary policy.  She also discusses that Rate cuts may not be a good solution for this problem, and they may not be able to sole for the increase in unemployment. There, for normal demand-side monetary policy my not be able to solve for unemployment caused by AI.  So policymakers such as Cook will be facing a trade-off between unemployment and inflation.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-governor-lisa-cook-says-ai-could-leave-fed-with-hard-choice-fight-inflation-or-boost-employment-172553175.html

Climate Change = Inflation? The Truth Behind it. - Justin Beekman

         Climate change is one of the most controversial things out there. Most of the time, when discussing climate change, you think about ice melting or hurricanes. The truth is, climate change is also affecting us on a small scale and fiscally hurting us. Some connections to our economic lives is the extreme heat to our electricity bills or extreme cold in the winter. 

    Our food supply is not safe either. Extreme weather has affected crop production, which then, in turn, slows down meat production and ultimately slows down the whole food sector. As simple economics states, less supply, higher price. Commonly used shipping routes like rivers are also having a harder time, due to low water levels. The trade routes being backed up can also cause a rise in prices.

    Going back to when I first mentioned it, but energy prices are also affected. Extreme weather causes fluctuations in energy uses which can add up over time for a family that is sticking to a tight budget. Smaller countries that have less excess money are also struggling by having to replace infrastructure due to extreme storms and anomalies. 

Lastly, one of the most hard hitting price hikes, is insurance. Families are being pressured to insure things for more and more things every year. California families are paying for wildfire coverage, and Texas families are paying to cover ice damage. The climate is causing families all around to pay more. 

    The climate affects more than just our yearly camping trips. Families around the world are feeling the hits of Mother Nature daily. Whether it's rain or snow Mother Nature has its hand in our pockets. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/23/climate/climate-change-prices-inflation.html 

Why American Express Plunged Today

     Credit card giant American Express saw its stock plummet 7.5% today, which is a rarity for such a large and established company. The downturn in AMEX stock is predicated largely on a post from a user on X called “Citrini” who laid out a plausible scenario where a recession can happen in mid-2028 due to artificial intelligence taking a large amount of white collar labor. Citrini claims that the potential recession could see unemployment of up to 10%. In addition to the claims on X, Fed Governor Chris Waller stated that a potential positive February job report could be used as potential rationale behind the Fed keeping interest rates steady. 

    The combination of the two aforementioned pieces of information led to a sizable downturn in AMEX stock due to investors wanting to “de-risk” their portfolios and avoid being hit with a bigger loss down the line, especially with how hot stocks have been running. It’s certainly interesting to see how impactful mere reports can be, especially from a user on X having the ability to have large influence on the behavior of investors. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-american-express-plunged-today-190948259.html

10-year Treasury yields rise after high court rebukes Trump’s tariffs

After the Supreme Court ruled against Trumps tariffs. The 10-year yield increased as investors were concerned that the loss of tariff revenue could worsen the fiscal deficit and hurt the demand for U.S debt. This was after Trump decided to announce a new 10% global tariff. Economist believe that since tariffs contributed somewhat to last years inflation, the decision to rule against them could make inflation related issues easier to solve and also make Federal Chairman Kevin Warsh's job easier.

With this court ruling how is the process of recovering the tariff revenue going to work? Many businesses and corporations were affected by these illegal tariffs. So along with them increasing bond yields, they also affected the amount of spending by organizations. Since tariff revenue contributed partly to inflation in 2025, hopefully this ruling as the article suggest can help solve inflationary related issues in the economy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/20/us-treasury-yields-key-inflation-data-release.html

New home sales hit a 4 year high at the end of 2025

    The U.S. housing market showed surprising strength at the end of 2025, as new home sales jumped to near four-year highs. Data from the US Census show that sales rose sharply in November and remained high in December, indicating strong demand despite high prices and borrowing costs. While some regions like the Midwest and West saw growth, others, such as the Northeast, experienced declines, showing that local economic conditions still play a big role in housing activity.

    From an economic perspective, this trend reflects a classic supply-and-demand issue. Lower mortgage rates have made more households eligible to buy homes, but the limited housing supply continues to push prices upward. According to the National Association of Realtors, if more buyers enter the market without an increase in construction, affordability could worsen. Overall, the recent surge in sales suggests improving demand, but long-term stability will depend on increasing housing supply.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/us-new-home-sales-hit-near-4-year-high-in-november-2025-post-5988385?welcomeuser=1 

U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on former President Trump’s tariff policy based on the latest reporting

 The U.S. Supreme Court delivered a significant blow to former President Donald Trump’s trade agenda on February 20, 2026, by ruling that his sweeping global tariffs were unlawful because he lacked statutory authority to impose them under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). In a 6–3 decision, the Court held that tariffs are the exclusive domain of Congress, not the executive branch, and that IEEPA does not clearly authorize such broad tariff powers for a president. The ruling not only invalidates many of the tariffs put in place over the past year but also raises complex questions about whether companies that paid those duties will be entitled to refunds.

In response, Trump sharply criticized the decision and promptly moved to impose a new 15 % global tariff under a different statutory authority, illustrating that trade policy uncertainty will persist despite the court’s check on executive power. The ruling underscores the constitutional balance between branches of government, signals limits on unilateral presidential action in economic affairs, and has sparked reactions from international partners like the European Union urging the U.S. to honor existing trade commitments. Businesses and markets are now watching closely as the legal and economic repercussions unfold.