Monday, March 14, 2016

US import prices fell 0.3% in Feb vs 0.6% drop expected

U.S import prices fell by 0.3% in February. This in fact is the eighth consecutive month that the the United States has seen import prices decline. This continual drop has been due largely in part to declining costs of oil and the strong value of the dollar among others. Although the prices have continued to drop, they have been decreasing less and less over the last couple of months. This very well could be an effect due to the rally of the dollar fading and oil prices that are beginning to stabilize. The article notes that should these trends continue we may begin to see a rise in prices and possibly also begin to see domestic inflation be propped up. It is important to note that the possible inflation increase would not be drastic, but would allow the rate to be inch closer to the Fed's target of two percent. I think it will be interesting to see how this plays out in the coming months. I wonder if the dollar rally will continue to fade, or if oil prices will actually stabilize in the near future. It will also be interesting if these conditions due in fact continue to see what reaction or possible actions the Fed would take in response.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/11/us-import-prices-feb-2016.html

Electric car industry grows more competitive

Despite being the opposite of the norm ever since they were introduced to the automobile industry, a revival of electric cars is beginning to occur with the help of Tesla Motors. With Tesla's original Model S base model initially being too pricey at $70,000, a more affordable Model 3 has been announced with a price of $35,000. Increasing demand and technology in electric cars combined with a decrease in price, Tesla and the automobile industry's future looks bright. With the help of more efficient and technologically advanced manufacturing methods, Tesla was able to create a cheaper model that is still efficient. The United States is now the world leading consumer of electric cars, holding 45 percent of global sales, which means electric cars are on their way to contributing to a large portion of the automobile industry.

https://powermore.dell.com/business/electric-car-industry-grows-more-competitive/

Joblessness Is Falling—But Not in States Tied to Energy

   In the Wall Street Journal article written by Josh Mitchell, the topic discussed is the concern over the unemployment rate in states that are main energy suppliers of the nation. Currently, energy prices and oil are at all time lows since there is a huge supply of oil coming from middle eastern nations (OPEC) that can pump out the resources at very little costs to them. Due to the laws of supply and demand, this drives out competitors since the costs of production are not as cheap for countries elsewhere or even states more local in the US. It seems like these middle eastern nations want to create more of a monopoly over this resource through the over production even if it means driving the cost down.
   As in economics, there are costs and benefits to these actions. Although most American consumers are loving the cheap gas prices, states that profit from drilling are not so happy about the current state of affairs. For instance, the article mentions that according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, states that are primarily oil oriented are experiencing increasing unemployment by around 1/10 of a percentage. In all, the overall unemployment rate is around 4.9% which is below the natural rate which means we are in a tight labor market and the economy is doing generally well, but for energy driven states like Wyoming, Illinois, Kentucky, and Alaska for example, this is a slightly different story. This will be an interesting story to follow, and I wonder how the rates will change over this coming year.

Article link: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/03/14/joblessness-is-falling-but-not-in-states-tied-to-energy/

Despite being large energy producers, these US states are losing jobs

North Dakota, Wyoming, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Alaska are the largest energy producers, but they have suffered with a huge unemployment rate from January 2015 to January 2016. One of the reasons for such a decline is due to the shift from electricity producers to a much cleaner option - natural gas. 
Hilary Clinton made a remark at a town hall meeting stating that they are going to put a lot of coal miners out of business but at the same time provide federal money to out of work coal miners, allowing them to find other jobs. This transition would not be easy as not many opportunities are provided to them and if they are provided, they wont be well paid. For example, West Virginia being a poor state provides its coal miners with an average of $29.67 per hour and the next closest industry to coal mining is construction which provides workers with an average of $24.59 per hour. Again, a job is available but it is offering them a lower wage, which can be discouraging.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-these-six-states-lost-jobs-in-the-past-year-2016-03-14

Wage inequality continued its 35-year rise in 2015

The report was written by Elise Gould and published by the Economic Policy Institute. She writes that "The way rising inequality has directly affected most Americans is through sluggish hourly wage growth in recent decades, despite an expanding and increasingly productive economy". Gould substantiates her position and details them in her key findings. While real hourly wages  grew across the board in 2015, this is largely due to a sharp dip in inflation; growth in nominal wages  has not accelerated. Additionally Gould found that over 2000–2015, wage growth was faster among the more educated, but not fast enough to explain growing wage inequality. The reporter concludes the report with several recommendations to ameliorate the issue. Gould writes,
"To see strong broad-based wage growth outside of the tightest of labor markets, policymakers could strengthen labor standards, such as by raising the minimum wage, expanding eligibility for overtime pay, and protecting and strengthening workers’ right to bargain collectively for higher wages and benefits".

http://www.epi.org/publication/wage-inequality-continued-its-35-year-rise-in-2015/#conclusion

    Queensland University's new elite degree for top economics and finance students

    The University of Queensland has created a new elite degree that combines Economics and Finance. It is limited to a small selection of top students which is taught at an accelerated pace with honors courses and opportunities for internships and international studies. Fifty students have already been enrolled in this program so far but this could expand depending on the success of the program. Economics and Finance have traditionally been taught separately so the benefits of having a degree that combines the two subjects is predicted to be very good in terms of employment due to the high demand for both finance and economics majors. This could also draw more students into the field of Economics instead of other fields like engineering, math and science. If the program grows and spreads to other schools we might be seeing this major offered more frequently and this could have an impact on the demand for Economics majors. I thought this article was interesting because if the program is successful it could change the job market demand and also could affect the economics programs offered at other Universities.

    http://www.afr.com/leadership/careers/queensland-unis-new-elite-degree-for-top-economics-and-finance-students-20160311-gngvag

    Sunday, March 13, 2016

    Central banks' steroids aren't working



    This article talked about how recently investors feel that the central banks do not have what it takes to turn around the world economies. The article sites how the European Central Bank introduced a “steroid-filled” stimulus on Thursday and although markets rallied, almost all markets ended up in the red by the end of the day. Related is how the Japanese Central Bank introduced negative interest rates initially causing a rise in the Nikkei 225, Japan’s benchmark stock market index. However just six weeks later the Nikkei 225 is down again. This article sites a patterns that castes a bleak outlook on the world markets for the rest of 2016.




    http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/10/investing/central-banks-action-not-working/index.html?iid=SF_LN

    China's primary schooling enrollment policies reflect that of my own hometown...

    Link: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/13/chinas-property-market-overheats-in-tier-1-cities-stagnates-in-lower-tiers.html

    CNBC reports that China has changed their primary school enrollment policies to be solely determined on a pupil's home address. Prior to 2014, a prospective student would test into primary school and be placed in one of many options in a city like Beijing. This is no longer the case. Many Chinese families are relocating their homes in order to guarantee that their children are secured a desk in the finest schools in their area. For many Chinese people, this doesn't come at a cheap price. The wealthier Chinese families have been known to spend big when it comes to education, but many people such as Peter Zeng are spending as much as 600,000 USD in order to buy properties in well known school districts so that their children can enroll in prominent schools.

    I can see many similarities between this situation in Beijing and my own community as well as surrounding ones. In suburban Chicago, a good school district is very important to many families. Families that choose to settle in the suburbs of any city often seek a good school district, but in my own town, 55th street serves as the dividing line for high schools. Homes on the south side of the street are often priced $100,000's less than like homes on the north side of the street because the high school on the north side is more amicable. Since I was born, my town has transformed from a sleepy commuter suburb to a swanky and affluent village boasting one of the highest teardown rates in the country - developers have built homes so large that the town floods after every rainstorm because many people lack yards behind their 6,000 sqft, homes. It appears that a well awarded school district can mean a lot in the US, and it is particularly relevant in China too. 

    On a further note, due to the rocketing prices in some school districts, many Chinese people are using apartments as investment opportunities and they rely on appreciation of their property almost too greatly. Many Chinese people are investing in apartments, borrowing against them, then "flipping" them in the short run. With property rates going up 3x in 5 years, little money required in downpayment, and interest rates at 4.9% apr, Chinese people state "it's almost like free money."

    Thailand Aims to Boost Foreign Investment


    Thailand Aims to Boost Foreign Investment


    The article was published by the Epoch times, and written by Emel Akan. The main theme of this article is how Thailand is becoming a large player in the industry business. More specifically Thailand is largest automotive manufacturer in Southeast Asia, and is increasing growth in industries such as aviation and aerospace. Overall these increases in industry are bringing awareness to Thailand causing countries to seek foreign investment with them.

    Economist viewing Thailand see a very profitable investment due to low tax rates, cheap labor, and geographical advantage. However due to political instability in the past economist viewing Thailand see the potential risks involved. The article then discusses the views from Thailand economist and political figures. Their opinions differentiate due to their belief that the “edgy” political system has calmed down in the past year. They feel the their government is focused heavily on restoring investor confidence in the two sector of automotive and aviation.

    The takeaways from the article are clear that Thailand is boosting production to try and be leaders in automotive and aviation production in Asia. The reason it is achievable is because investment incentives are large due highly skilled work force, and Thailand’s entry into ASEAN. From an international business standpoint the creation of ASEAN allows 10 countries to form a single market and production base, allowing the free flow of capital, goods, services, investment, and skilled labor across the region. Why Thailand sticks out is there highly skilled labor compared to other countries involved. From a foreign investors view a highly skilled workforce is necessary when contemplating opening a factory in technological sector such as aviation.






     http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1898341-thailand-aims-to-boost-foreign-investment/ 


    “China is experiencing its slowest growth in 25 years, but the government is still holding fire on its giant stimulus bazooka”

    “China is experiencing its slowest growth in 25 years, but the government is still holding fire on its giant stimulus bazooka”

    In a press conference over the weekend, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China, says that China will adopt a relatively prudent monetary policy, as long are there are no major international or domestic financial crises. Zhou expects that China will reach its economic growth target without a distribution of any stimulus. These words align with what has become the “new normal” for China, as economic growth slows in the country. This should spark the interest of China’s worldwide competitors, as an opportunity to advance to new markets may be possible with the slowdown of China. Experts say, however, that the slowdown is needed so the China can move the economy from manufacturing reliant to consumer spending reliant. Only time will tell but it will be interesting to see what China’s next moves are, and how other economies around the world will respond.