Saturday, September 4, 2010

Strong Exports Lift Agriculture, A Bright spot in U.S Economy

Even during the time of recession, one sector that is boosting the U.S economy is the Agriculture. With countries like Canada, Mexico, and China on its top export list, U.S will have exported $107.5 billion in agricultural products by the end of the fiscal year. The major reason for the growth in the export has been the reduction of supply in the international agriculture market, which has also caused the prices of the agricultural goods to shoot up. Interestingly, the article also states that prices for agricultural goods will only increase moderately as the the farmer's value added is only a small amount compared to the final price of the goods produced.

What's after the Jobs report?

The forecast for US private jobs gains is actually higher than expected, reducing the pressure put on Federal Reserve policy makers to add monetary stimulus this month. It means that they do not have to save up for a move later on this year. As reflected on the report done by Labor Department in Washington, private payrolls climbed 67000 in August after a revised 107000 increase in July that was more than initially estimated.

In addition, public opinion polls show jobs and the economy are top concerns among voters two months before November congressional elections in which the Democrats are at risk of losing their majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Amongst those, a poll done by the USA Today/ Gallup Poll on August 30th found that Americans believe Republicans in Congress would do a better job on the economy that Democrats by 49 to 38 percent. More over, the Bloomberg News survey pointed a decrease of 54000 in employment for a second month as the government fired census workers. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 9.6 percent from 9.5 percent as more people joined the labor force. This maybe a good sight when people constantly seeking for jobs, however, they maybe just being active in order to stay being unemployed and taking advantage of unemployment benefits.

The report reduces the odds of a relapse into a recession while also reinforcing the view of Fed policy makers that the economy is recovering more slowly than they would like. This is totally contradicting to previous analysis just two days ago over the new about the chance of avoiding a second relapse of recession. The Federal Open Market Committee may still consider a second round of large-scale purchases of securities, a strategy known as quantitative easing, this year.


Recession? What Recession? Good Times Roll On at the U.S. Open

United States Open generates 120 million dollars in TR- 80% of the U.S.T.A.'s revenue. The US Open is booming while all other US Sports teams are loosing out due to the recession.

Back to school sales get an A

One the biggest problems during this recession was the fall in consumption. The figures for August though seem to be more encouraging. Thomson Reuters tracked store sales for a group of 28 national chains. He said that sales in August for this group rose up 3.3%; a much better number than the 2.5% forcasted one. Here we have to consider that Retailers same-store sales declined 2.9% for the same month a year ago. The stores that hit the jack-pot were clothing and department stores.

Limited Brands (LTD, Fortune 500), parent of Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works chains, posted a 10% surge in sales last month, trouncing analysts' estimates for a 7.3% increase.

Sales at Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) jumped 6% in the month, beating estimates for a gain of 5.7%.

Trendy clothing chain Wet Seal reported a 1.1% sales gain versus estimates for a 3.5% decline.





Second quarter economy slows

The original estimates of 2.4% growth were lowered to 1.6% during the second quarter. Also sales of both new and old homes were the lowest of the decade. This news makes many worried about creation of new Jobs. With unemployment at a level of nearly 10%, economist fear that these low numbers could put fear into employers and cause them to hold back on hiring new employees. However, chairman of the federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke expects that the economy will continue to grow. He expects this growth to be slow and overtime.

Afghanistan Economics

Well, it looks like Afghanistan is going to have its' first economic crisis. The main major bank, the Kabul Bank invested heavily into real estate in Dubai. With the collapse of the real estate market worldwide, the Kabul Bank is not unstable. The Afghan government has asked the United States Treasury Department in order to help shore up the Kabul Bank. The government owned Central Bank is thinking of doing an American style bail out.

After Bargains of Recession, Air Fares Soar

During recent months, all air fares have increased a lot, even the economy has improved and demand has picked up. For leisure travelers, domestic fares increased by more than 20 percent; international fares increased by 30 percent. For business travelers, prices increased by 12 percent. Airlines use many ways to increase ticket prices: reduce the number of seats they offer; find a variety of new services worthy of a fee; charge for items they once provided for free, etc.. Experts expect prices will continue to increase in coming months because of year-end holidays. The past low point of industry put big pressure on the airlines: consumers cut back on air travel spending and airlines struggled with high energy prices at the same time. But now, airlines is turning small recovery into big profits, and those methods do improve fortune to airlines.

Fed Reserve Chairman attacks government regulators

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke attacked governemnt regulators in the second day of hearings held by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. The job of the commission is to chronicle why the current financial crisis occured, and what the government's response was. Bernanke blamed government regulators for not using their powers "forcefully or effectively" to halt risky financial practices by large wall street firms and banks. The chairman also said that the United States government must be prepared to heavily regulate or shut down Americas largest firms if they pose a significant risk to the market. This power was given to regulators earlier this summer when Obama signed the new financial reforms. Bernanke closed his testimony with a warning that firms that are considered "too big to fail" must be fixed so that what happened to several large investment firms at the beginning of the current recession wont be repeated.

Dow back in the black for 2010

The Dow Jones industrial average recovered 142 points friday to finish at 10,448. This is approximately .2% higher than the market when it closed December 31, of last year. The economy lagged in the beginning of 2010 due to fears of a double dip recession and a lack of consumer confidence. The recovery is attributed to data that showed an improvement in manufacturing. The jobs report that released Thursday also helped the surge in stocks as companies reported fewer job cuts than expected. However, with many traders on vacation for labor day weekend, it is unclear what effect these reports will have on the market in the following weeks. Investors are also concerned about short term growth in the US economy, and continuing debt problems in Europe which could disrupt the economic recovery.