How could the U.S. strikes in Iran affect the world's oil supply?

 U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have raised concerns about potential disruptions to global oil markets, though the immediate impact on production and trade remains uncertain. Oil prices have already been climbing due to fears of conflict, even before markets reopen. Despite heavy sanctions, Iran still exports roughly 1.9 million barrels of oil per day, much of it to China via “shadow” tankers that evade restrictions. However, analysts note that China holds large strategic and commercial reserves, and the global market is currently oversupplied, which could cushion the blow if Iranian exports are reduced.

The greater risk lies in how Iran might retaliate. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which about 20% of global oil supply passes each day. If Iran were to disrupt or close the Strait, oil prices could spike dramatically and immediately. An even more severe scenario would involve Iran targeting oil facilities in neighboring Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, or Qatar. While past flare-ups avoided direct attacks on energy infrastructure and kept oil flows steady, a broader regional escalation could have far more serious consequences for global energy markets and the wider economy.

https://www.npr.org/2026/02/28/nx-s1-5678603/iran-strikes-oil-energy-markets