Private payroll losses accelerated in the past four weeks

 There is a lot of concern about the current health of the U.S. labor market.  The market itself has been showing signs of weakening, even with the lack of data being released as a result of the government shutdown.  In the past couple of weeks, ADP has been the source of data regarding the labor market.  They have reported that there was a loss of 13,500 jobs a week in the private company sector over the span of the last four weeks.  As a frame of reference, there was a loss of 2,500 per week in the previous update that was given.  As a result of the government shutdown, there will again not be a lot of data to use for the FED when it meets again in December.  Advocation for a cut has shifted the market to expect a cut to rates in the next month, and there is little data that will be released to alter that expectation.  The Goldman team has said that they believe that there will be two more cuts following the December rate cut, come the new year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/private-payroll-losses-accelerated-in-the-past-four-weeks-adp-reports-.html