The big takeaway from this article is that people's confidence in the job market is at a historical low. A survey from the New York Fed found that people feel there's only a 44.9% chance of finding a new job if they were to lose their current one. This is the lowest that number has been since the survey started back in 2013! It's a huge change from a few years ago during what was called the "Great Resignation," when people were quitting their jobs at a record pace. Back then, as many as 4.5 million workers a month were quitting, but that number has now dropped to 3.2 million in July, a decrease of over 5% from 2024.
People's expectations that the unemployment rate will be higher a year from now went up to 39.1%, which is a 1.7 percentage point increase from July. The job data from August indicated that only 22,000 new jobs were created, which is way below the expected 75,000. They even revised the numbers for June, showing a loss of 13,000 jobs, which was the first monthly drop since December 2020. The overall unemployment rate went up to 4.3%, and a broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers climbed to 8.1%. All of this points to a slowdown in hiring, and it has caused workers to "job-hug" their current positions. What do you think this means for the Federal Reserve and interest rates?
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I really enjoyed reading your take on this. I was surprised to see that Americans’ confidence in employment has dropped so sharply, especially given that we’re currently experiencing a historically low unemployment rate. I think that his could be caused by the impact of our current administration’s policies and the uncertainty they create for many households.
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