Mexico Economy to Keep Growing Steadily After June Presidential Vote: Reuters Poll

 

A Reuters poll indicates Mexico's economy is poised for steady growth post-June's presidential election, aligning with favorable performance in the United States, despite upcoming fiscal challenges for the incoming government. The current administration's increased spending ahead of the election has made for concerns about inflation among some central bank policymakers. Leading the electoral race is Claudia Sheinbaum, the ruling party candidate, who has advocated for measures such as minimum wage hikes and support for state-owned energy firms, although detailed fiscal plans remain pending. Analysts project a GDP growth of 2.2% for 2024 and 1.9% for 2025, with the main drivers being robust macroeconomic indicators in the U.S. and increased remittance flows. However, uncertainties persist, compounded by recent volatility in the local currency market and Mexico's regulatory framework, which restricts investments. Despite the fiscal deficit being the highest since 2015, plans to reduce it by almost half by 2025 are contingent on meeting current economic team targets, though questions remain about addressing Pemex's debt. Moreover, elevated inflation and the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy shifts have led some central bank members to advocate for a cautious approach, with expectations of further rate cuts throughout 2024 and 2025, all while constrained by Fed actions.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2024-04-22/mexico-economy-to-keep-growing-steadily-after-june-presidential-vote-reuters-poll