Auto sales continue to top sales in the same month but a year prior. Januarys though are difficult as weather plays an unpredictable part. From Jan. 2024 to Jan. 2025 auto sales are down for two main leaders; Toyota and Ford with Toyota having a 2% decrease and Ford with a 6% decrease in sales. But most other main automakers have seen an increase. January is seen as a slow month for car sales due to the post holiday break and weather impacting consumer behavior. Demand is low as severe weather like snowstorms turn people away from visiting dealerships to buy cars. There was a sigh of relief in the auto industry in late January when the day before tariffs were to take place Trump made temporary deals with Canada and Mexico to delay the 25% tariffs for 30 days. This would have affected top selling automakers. Automakers get more than a third of their U.S. inventory from the Mexican and Canadian factories. Analysts concluded that the 25% tariff would raise the price of the average car by $3,000 and some rise by as much as $10,000. After the 30 days prices could rise quickly in March if the tariff threat re emerges.
Sunday, February 9, 2025
January Auto Sales and Trump Tariff Delays.
Trump's Plan to Cut Pentagon Spending
President Donald Trump has vowed to reduce Pentagon expenditures by billions, enlisting Elon Musk to head the efforts in identifying government inefficiencies. This initiative aligns with a broader strategy to curtail federal spending but has ignited legal battles and raised ethical concerns due to Musk’s invested interests in government contracts.
Opponents argue that Trump's approach goes beyond presidential authority, with Democrats warning it weakens Congress's power over federal spending. A federal judge recently blocked Musk’s attempt to obtain Treasury Department data, citing privacy and national security risks. Simultaneously, agencies such as USAID and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau have experienced significant budget reductions, with the Department of Education likely to follow suit.
Proponents maintain that addressing government waste is essential to mitigating the nation’s escalating debt. However, national security officials caution that reducing defense funding could compromise military readiness. While many Republicans endorse the initiative, some advocate for a more measured and transparent approach.
This debate highlights the tension between cutting government costs and maintaining checks on presidential power, sparking concerns about its impact on federal agencies and national security.
Link to the article: https://www.ft.com/content/5800607b-f1fd-48a6-b90c-c79b25552e75
Short term gains could become long term pain?
The long term impact of a tariff war with china may lead the United States down a challenging path. President Trump’s 10% tariff on Chinese products went into effect on Tuesday, Feb 4th with the goal of pressuring Beijing to crack down on fentanyl shipments into the United States. China has since formulated a response of their own as the Chinese government announced additional tariffs on liquified natural gas, coal, farm machinery and other products from the United States. China has also implemented restrictions on the exports of certain critical minerals, most of which are used in the production of high tech products. These restrictions on critical minerals is coming in at a crucial time as the United States and China are in an active AI production race.
This tariff war could cause a multitude of issues down the line whether it be supply chain issues, uncertainty for businesses, and higher costs for consumers on products. Though all of these are an issue, a bigger problem comes from China’s ongoing goal of becoming the leader of global trade. China’s BRI (Belt and Road initiative) aims to enhance their influence by investing in infrastructure and trade routes across Asia, Europe and Africa. In the event that China were to succeed with the BRI and become the leader of global trade in the long run, it would be hard to imagine their government forgetting about the United States’ attempt to strong arm them through tariffs.
The country that comes out on top of this tariff war has only won part of the battle in the grand scheme of things, as the main fight remains to be who will be at the top of global trade in the long run.
Article link for China’s Retaliations to Trump tariffs.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/04/business/economy/trump-tariffs-china.html
Potential recession in the future?
Recent economic indicators offer a detailed perspective on concerns about a potential recession. In January, the United States added 143,000 jobs, which was below the expected 168,000. Despite this, the unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4%. This points to a weakening labor market, although it does not signify a significant downturn. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, a tool for predicting future economic performance, rose in November for the first time since February 2022. This increase was supported by a recovering stock market and a revitalized construction sector. However, the Sahm Rule, which serves as a signal for a recession, has been activated recently. This rule indicates a downturn when the three-month average unemployment rate increases by 0.5% from its previous 12-month low. Economist Claudia Sahm cautioned that this activation could be a false signal, given the current economic conditions. Consumer spending continues to be robust, contributing to GDP growth. Nevertheless, persistent inflation and potential tariff impacts pose significant challenges. While certain indicators demonstrate resilience, others advise prudence, emphasizing the importance of closely monitoring these metrics to accurately assess the likelihood of a recession.
Sources
https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-121924/card/u-s-leading-indicators-rise-for-first-time-in-nearly-three-years-shrugging-off-recession-fears-JKEHgYgRjB27FcyLaN1X?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/claudia-sahm-says-her-namesake-recession-indicator-may-have-been-a-false-alarm-this-time-990f8dac?
January Jobs Report Indicates Slowed, But Solid Economy
US employers added 143,000 jobs in January, and the
unemployment rate increased from 4% to 4.1%. This is seen as a slowdown in the
jobs market, but experts say that nothing in the jobs report is raising any
concerns. This report will likely result in the Fed maintaining current
interest rates. Despite the slowing down job growth, this report indicates a solid
economy. It comes as President Trump enters his first full month in office,
bringing with him a cloud of uncertainty in the market as he promises spending
cuts, migrant deportations, and tariffs on foreign goods. It will be
interesting to see how the market reacts to these policies as they play out.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yd88d2lxzo
Typical Home Buyers in Los Angeles, San Fransisco and San Diego spend up to 78% of income on housing
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/09/us-cities-where-buying-a-home-requires-biggest-share-of-income.htm
Financial Experts recommend that homeowners contribute 30% of their income towards their house. However Nationwide, Americans earning the median income need to spend 41.8% of their salary on housing to afford to own a median-priced home. In five California cities, homebuyers earning the local median income must put at least 67% of their income toward housing to afford a median-priced home.
Los Angeles
- Share of median income needed to buy a median priced home: 77.6%
- Median income: $92,994
- Median home sale price: $896,060
- Share of median income needed to buy a median priced home: 76.2%
- Median income: $159,316
- Median home sale price: $1,513,699
Anaheim
- Share of median income needed to buy a median priced home: 75.9%
- Median income: $121,925
- Median home sale price: $1,165,965
Saturday, February 8, 2025
Tech megacaps ($200 billion or more in market share) plan to spend more than $300 billion combined on AI in 2025, what does this mean in the grand scheme of the AI race?
Central Banks deal with uncertainty in 2025’s foggy economic landscape
In early 2025, central banks around the world are taking different steps in response to uncertain economic conditions. While there were significant rate cuts to combat inflation in this past year, different measures have been taken at the start of the 2025. Among the G10 central banks, Sweden, the European Central Bank, and Canada continued to cut rates while Japan increased their rates for the second time already in under a year. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve and Norges Bank decided to keep their rates the same, and the Bank of England made its first rate cut of the year.
There have also been changes in emerging markets as well. Turkey aggressively cut their rates, while Brazil raised its rates due to concerns about its debt. Other nations like South Africa and Indonesia made more modest adjustments and China's central bank did not change anything and will wait to see the effects of potential U.S. tariffs. As the year goes on, most countries, except for Japan, are going to continue lowering borrowing costs. Specifically, those in Europe, Canada, and Australia will lower their costs which could be influenced by trade tensions.
Thursday, February 6, 2025
Insurance Companies aren't supporting HOAs anymore
Homeowners Associations (HOAs) are facing increasing difficulties securing master insurance policies as insurers raise premiums or exit the market due to rising losses from extreme weather and aging properties. These higher costs are passed down to homeowners, making condos and shared properties more expensive to maintain. Additionally, insurance rate hikes are occurring nationwide. This trend is not limited to disaster-prone areas, as insurers are also pulling back in regions like Minnesota and Colorado due to hail damage risks.
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/insurers-are-dropping-hoas-threatening-the-condo-market-124429337.html
Uncertainty in the economy creates certainty for high mortgage rates
Mortgage rates dropped slightly over this week by 0.06%, but still remain at a high 6.89%. The rate usually follows the 10-year Treasury yield. When President Trump made executive orders on tariffs, treasury yields became expected to drop causing mortgage rates to follow suit. However, rates did not drop to the same degree as yields due to the volatile nature of current policy developments and economic conditions. This unpredictable future is why mortgage rates are forecasted to remain high, and even increase throughout the year. As a result, applications to purchase a new home have fallen. This decrease in applications is likely to become a trend this year.