US service sector slows more than expected in November

Trade tensions and worker shortages has caused the U.S. services sector to slow more than expected for November. Manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth straight month since 2012 according to the ISM. The non-manufacturing activity index decreased to 53.9 in November compared to 54.7 in October. These manufacturing slumps have also countered growth expectations for the fourth quarter, which had been increased by a "rush of upbeat reports on the trade deficit, housing and business investment. Do you think the service sector will keep slowing because of this trade war with China?
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/04/november-ism-non-manufacturing-index-comes-in-at-53point9-vs-54point5-estimate.html

U.S. Private Sector Added 67,000 Jobs in November

The U.S. nonfarm private sector added 67,000 jobs in November, missing economists’ expectations by a wide margin. It was expected that the ADP National Employment Report to show an addition of 150,000 jobs. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said "“The job market is losing its shine... Job openings are declining and if job growth slows any further unemployment will increase". There were a lot of job gains in the service-providing sector, which added 85,000 jobs. The education and health sector added 39,000 jobs, the most added in a category on the services side. The worst industry performer in the services group was trade, transportation and utilities, which lost 15,000 jobs.

Referring back to the economic outlook conference, Mark Schweitzer talked about how even though job openings have slowly been declining, job hires have still been increasing. Do you believe this still holds true? Are we closer to large unemployment than we really think?

Hit hard by the trade war, China’s economic outlook is uncertain – except for one thing: growth is sure to decline

This article talks about China's side of the trade war. It's main focus is on how the Chinese economy, which is based on the amount of trade they have, has slowed drastically in the past year, from 6.8% to 6%. While that may not sound like a large number, when you put into perspective with how large the China economy is, the entire global economy has been slowing down as a result. The article also talks about when their economy does get below that 6% number, this will impact consumer confidence so it will likely slow down at an even harsher rate if nothing is done to fix it. What could the Chinese do in order to prevent this from happening? Or if it does happen, what will they have to do in order to get back on track?

US consumer confidence falls for fourth consecutive month

According to this article, consumer confidence decreased for the fourth straight month. The Conference Board shows that the consumer confidence index dipped to 125.5 in November. It was expected to rise- economists polled by Dow Jones expected the index to rise to 126.6 from 126.1 in October.
The article also states that the situation index also fell from 173.5 to 166.9. These numbers suggest that economic growth in the final quarter of 2019 will remain weak. One of the last things the article states is that expectations for the holiday shopping season are strong. The National Retail Federation expects sales to grow by about 4% from last year.
If this is the case, my question is, how much does a drop in CPI impact holiday spending? Could CPI be very low and holiday spending still be very high?

US Consumer Confidence Falls

Consumer confidence has been hurting as a result of economic pressures around the world. It has dipped for the fourth straight month contrary to expectations. The Conference Board expected the index to rise to 126.6 yet it fell to 125.5. Recent data is pointing at slower growth and a weaker economy as the years end approaches. Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators of The Conference Board still suggests, Overall, confidence levels are still high and should support solid spending during this holiday season.” Expectations for spending in the holiday season are strong and projected to help sales grow 4% in this coming period. Hopefully the upcoming holiday season will help curtail this fall in consumer confidence as we approach the new decade. 

December could be a good month for the stock market, but there’s one big risk

In previous years December has been one of the best months for stocks performance wise. The S&P, which is up more than 25% on the year, can grow more in December. Historically, stocks have rose 1.6% in the final month of  the year. In the coming weeks, investors focus will be on the trade war, and depending on the trade war news will have a big impact on how the month of December is for stocks. December is also the least volatile month but could see some bumps due to the trade war. Will the stock market do as well as it has previously in the month of December or will the trade war slow it down?

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/29/december-could-be-good-for-the-stock-market-but-theres-one-big-risk.html

Consumer Confidence Decline

Recently, the Conference Board did a consumer confidence index and saw a decline in confidence for the month of November. This would mark the third month in a row in which we have seen this decline. The reason for this decline is coming from fear from a global shutdown and a continued trade war. If these trade wars are not solved in the near future and we continue a decline of consumer confidence, how detrimental do you think this will be in the grand scheme of our economy?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-consumer-confidence-declined-in-november-11574782427

Two months on, tax rate hike leaves patchy impact on Japanese economy

The Japanese government has released some new economic indicators since the new tax hikes have decreased overall consumption in the Japanese GDP.  In order to stimulate the Japanese economy, aimed at increasing overall consumption, Aeon Retail Co. had a four-day sale similar to that of the U.S "Black Friday".  Overall retail has declined significantly since the Tax rate hike and as a result of this, the Japanese government will also enact fiscal policy to battle this, A new budget for 15 months to help support the economy starting in early December and will end in Late 2020.








https://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/Two-months-on-tax-rate-hike-leaves-patchy-impact-14872802.php

German car industry reels as Daimler cuts 10,000 jobs

Mercedes-Benz owner Daimler announces that it will cut up to 10,000 jobs in the next 2 years. This is a reflection of the losses across the German car industry sector, with Audi also announcing job cuts close to 9500 by 2025. Primary reason cited for doing so is due to the cost of investing in electric vehicles. The EU has imposed strict carbon emission targets in order to climate change, which although much needed, pose these negative consequences. However, as an alternative, Daimler is willing to offer current employees reduced hours and voluntary redundancy packages for those nearing retirement. I think climate change is such an important issue today, however, this article raises a valid issue in combating climate change and shows the flip side of the coin. The government needs to bridge this gap and allow firms to cut back personnel costs so they can shift gears as well as making sure making sure those job cuts don't significantly affect the economy, perhaps creating jobs in another way. What do you think is a good solution?

https://www.ft.com/content/e2e7ddaa-129a-11ea-a225-db2f231cfeae

Consumer confidence dipped for a fourth straight month in November as economic conditions weaken towards the end of 2019. The Conference Board shows that confidence index dipped to 125.2 this month. That's down from 126.1 in October, which was expected to rise to 126.6. The present situation index also fell to 166.9 from 173.5 in November, which suggests that economic growth in the final quarter of 2019 will remain weak. Will the strong expections of the holiday season be able to maintain the economic growth and bring the last quarter to be strong in terms of consumer confidence?



https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/26/us-consumer-confidence-for-november-comes-in-at-125point5-vs-126point6-estimate.html