Sunday, March 31, 2013

The Eurozone's Biggest Problem

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/03/euro-crisis-4

This article discusses the state of the Eurozone economy in the wake of the situation in Cyprus. It cites that the region has several economic problems but most of these are shared by many other economies in the world. It does focus in on one issue that currently sets Europe apart from other developed nations - a falling growth rate for NGDP.

It points to Europe's shrinking monetary base and the potential future consequences that could manifest in deflation and falling wages. It cites the central bank's role to play in this as critical and stresses the importance of good monetary policy. While inflation is always a concern that is best avoided, Europe cannot afford to slip into deflationary circumstances either. It would be best if action is taken now rather than delaying it until another crisis strikes. 

Traffic Heats Up the Economy

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/30/business/economy/traffic-backups-as-a-gauge-of-an-improving-us-economy.html?ref=economy&_r=0

According to traffic devices on cell phones and GPS's, traffic is getting worse in the United States. This is seen as good for our economy, even though it may be more inconvenient for your average driver. Bryan Mistele, who is a chief executive of Inrix Gridlock Index, states that this is a good indicator of confidence, meaning that people drive and are returning to work, as well as ship more freight as orders increase. This can mean that "the pulse of the economy is starting to beat faster" (Mistele). On the contrary, Europeans are faced with the opposite, travelers are traveling less, traffic is decreasing, and their economies are going into recessions.
Inrix has been collecting data since 2010 on many different things. Things including how long it takes vehicles to travel, figures for 15-minute intervals which separate vehicles like taxis that drop off passengers, and a few others.
This, I find, is very interesting because even though drivers out there hate the traffic and wish there was less, it still could be a good thing for our economy.

Signs of a Recovering Economy?

With the economy rising in the month of February people are hopeful that this is a sign to a recovering economy. Also income is on the rise as well. With consumer spending increasing .7% in February economists remain positive on the economies overall return to levels before the recession.
The economy is about to encounter a small problem in the coming months though. With the up and coming Sequester the government looks to cut back on roughly 85 billion dollars in federal spending. This will negatively effect the growth rate in the oncoming months but there is still hope for improvement.

There is somewhat of a hidden reason behind the higher growth rates for the previous months positive growth though. Over the past month gas prices rose by 35 cents which lead to an increase in consumption just due to necessity. But, Americans also spent money on long lasting items such as houses and automobiles.

Overall Economists seem positive and expect continual growth. Hopefully the sequester will not have a large effect on these positive growth rate. The sequester has the power to negate all the positive gains the economy has gained over the past few months. It will be interesting to see how this whole situation plays out.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/30/business/economy/reports-show-income-is-up-and-so-is-spending.html?ref=economy&_r=0

As Banks in Cyprus Falter, Other Tax Havens Step In

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/01/business/global/as-banks-in-cyprus-falter-other-tax-havens-step-in.html?hp&_r=0

As the financial situation in Cyprus continues to get worse, other countries are stepping up to try to become the new tax haven. Prior to this crisis, Cyprus was an ideal "offshore financial institution" due to its incredibly low taxes.  Now, surrounding countries are trying to take advantage of Cyprus' unfortunate circumstances.  Competitors in locations like Malta, Dubai, Singapore, Luxembourg, and the Cayman Islands are now sending emails to many business' and individuals in attempt to try and lure them away from Cyprus' broken financial institution.  Because of the bailout, the largest of depositors in banks are the ones having to pay the biggest bill, making it very hard for accountants in Cyprus to keep their existing customers.

Facebook Reaches Out to a New Audience: Core Gamers

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-03-28/behind-the-boomlet-in-facebooks-social-gaming#r=nav-f-story

Facebook has put out some great looking numbers for the growth of the number of people that play social networking games. Not only does this mean ad revenue is paying off in that these users will be looking at more ads due to being on the page for longer periods of time, these games require real cash payments for the use of specific items in the games. According to the article the average user makes Facebook about $4.04 from ad revenue. Those that play games though average an additional $4.05 due to item payments on top of the $4.04 made from ad revenue which makes them twice as profitable. Because of these promising numbers, Facebook has started contacting higher end third party game producers to make higher quality 'hardcore' games to appeal to gamers that will take the time to master and complete games such as these. This system of making free to play games along with micro-transactions has been an upcoming trend in the gaming market due to publishers like EA and Activision, so it is not too surprising that it is rooting itself deeper into social gaming as well.

All in all, despite the chance of making more money due to deeper games (which are more costly to make), the actual games themselves have to be enjoyable to play in order to make users want to pay for. It is more of a higher risk and higher reward sort of path for Facebook to take.

Consumer Spending Up in U.S.

Consumer spending has seen a five month high in February, showing a .7 increase. Contrasting this with a .4 increase in January, this figure is a good indicator that the economy is getting back onto solid ground. This increase in not only consumer spending, but consumer confidence rates in March, surprised many experts due to uncertain domestic and international economic factors. The pay roll tax cut is set to expire this month, which some economists believed would hurt spending. Along with the sequester, it is amazing that consumer confidence was not hurt. These increases are good indicators for future spending and confidence. Yet another sign that the United States is starting to work itself completely out the recession.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-29/consumer-spending-in-u-s-increases-by-most-in-five-months.html

U.S. economy climbs off the mat

http://money.cnn.com/2013/03/28/news/economy/gdp-report/index.html?iid=SF_E_River

     This article talks about how U.S GDP rose more than expected this past quarter. It suggested that this can be explained by construction activity becoming stronger, investment in non-residential builings climbing at an annual rate of 16.7%, which is about three times the growth estimate from before, and an increase in exports.

     However, the government reduced spending on defense and businesses apprehensive about the fiscal cliff cut back, making inventories smaller. This alone prevented GDP from growing an additional 3%. Other factors of course compensated for this and growth in the first quarter of 2013 is forecasted to be even stronger.

     As stated at the end of the article though, the question that remains is how long will this increased growth last? The government will be cutting its spending this month, which is predicted to reduce growth by 0.6% and cost the country up to 750,000 jobs.

     Stated at the end of the article, "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has warned that the cuts will be a "significant" burden to the economy."

South Africa's inclusion in the BRICS

The term BRICS relate to some of the fastest growing emerging economies in the world: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The term was coined by a Goldman Sachs investor and was so catchy that it stuck and was adopted by international organizations and the countries themselves. The use of BRICS to describe general attributes of fast growing emerging economies is questionable because although these economies represent a diverse group, their experiences do not necessarily reflect those of other emerging market economies.
This article questions South Africa's inclusion as a member of the BRICS. It questions the validity of South Africa's growth and whether based on its current economic situation it should be included as one of the fast growing economies. Although the grouping of BRICS was arbitrarily chosen, the group has come to represent a lot more for the developing world and the best country to represent Africa within this group might not be South Africa. Ghana or Nigeria might be a suitable alternative.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/03/economist-explains-why-south-africa-brics

Israel begins first offshore gas production

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3de8b0ca-99ea-11e2-83ca-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2P8DS3JA4

In this Financial Times article, the author talks about the fact that today Israel began the production of natural gas from its first ever offshore reservoir. The production from this field is expected to contribute significantly towards Israel's GDP this year. It will also help in meeting Israel's energy needs and providing energy security.
Israel also has another offshore field which is being developed and money from the first field would be used in further development of the second field. Since the internal demand for gas is not extremely high, the Israeli companies are looking to export some of the production to Jordan or Turkey. 

France President wants 75% tax on high salaries

http://money.cnn.com/2013/03/29/news/economy/france-tax-hollande/index.html?iid=A_E_News

France's Socialist President Francois Hollande has proposed a 75% top tax rate on businesses that pay salaries above 1 million euros. This is a change from his original proposal, which would have taxed high earners 75%. One economist, Jack Kennedy, projects that France's 1st quarter will be its worst since 2009, and this tax will likely reduce income even more. Because of the tax multiplier, even a small increase in taxes can lead to a huge drop in income across the country. It should be interesting to see how the public reacts to this, as his approval rating has already started to drop.