Iran War Negotiations and Their Impact on the Global Economy

 Geopolitics and economics share the same bloodstream. The U.S.-Iran standoff makes that impossible to ignore. Trump claims talks are progressing. Tehran says no formal negotiations exist at all. That contradiction isn't just diplomatic noise. Markets don't wait for verified facts. When two sides tell completely opposite stories, uncertainty itself becomes an economic force worth watching.

Oil feels the pressure first. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about a fifth of the world's oil supply. Even rumors of confusion cause prices to lurch. No blockade needed. The threat alone breeds volatility. Economists call this a negative supply shock. Constrained output pushes prices up and those higher costs bleed into nearly every corner of the economy. The shipping and manufacturing and retail sectors depend on energy resources. When those inputs get pricier, firms pass the cost along. Households end up paying more for the same goods which leads to increased expenses. Real purchasing power quietly erodes. Businesses eyeing expansion tend to freeze when the geopolitical weather looks stormy. Why pour capital into a project when the ground might shift next week?

Financial markets cut both ways though. When whispers of a possible deal surfaced recently, oil prices dipped and equities climbed. A single unconfirmed report moved billions in value within hours. That sensitivity reveals something worth noting. The global economy reacts not just to events but to the anticipation of events. No resolution is visible on the horizon yet. Until clarity arrives, volatility stays baked in. This situation shows how thoroughly politics threads through inflation, investment and growth, even before anything concrete actually happens.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/24/trump-iran-war-negotiations.html

U.S. Cancels Offshore Wind Projects in $1 Billion Deal

 The U.S. government has agreed to pay nearly $1 billion to TotalEnergies to cancel two offshore wind projects planned along the East Coast. Originally intended to expand renewable energy production near New York and North Carolina, the projects were scrapped as part of a broader shift in federal energy priorities. TotalEnergies is now expected to redirect its investment toward oil and natural gas development within the United States.

The move has sparked debate across the energy sector. Supporters believe it will strengthen access to reliable and affordable energy, while critics argue it represents a setback for clean energy progress and a costly use of taxpayer money. The decision highlights the ongoing tension between expanding fossil fuel production and investing in renewable energy for the future. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/24/us-to-pay-totalenergies-1-billion-to-kill-east-coast-wind-projects.html

The UK and the War in Iran

The whole world has watched the combat between the US and Iran unfold over the past few weeks. This war has affected the economic situation of many countries. One such country is the UK where a national emergency meeting has been called for Monday, March 23, to discuss the situation. The UK’s government is borrowing at their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. The economic situation is only getting worse as threats are exchanged between the US and Iran. Iran has threatened to attack the water and energy systems of surrounding countries if the US attacks Iran’s energy grid. The UK is facing higher and higher prices since they rely on exported natural gas and fuel. This, along with other economic difficulties, is pushing down the value of British bonds. 

In the upcoming meeting, the issue of how to react to these challenges will be discussed. The Finance Minister has already stated that she believes it is too soon to know what the impact of the war will be and is resisting major actions. The Housing Minister is voicing concerns about “profiteering” from fuel companies and would like to discuss ways to fight this. 

Britain has been facing difficulties with inflation, and the shock to the energy market caused by this war is making this problem far worse. Some economists project that the inflation rate could reach 5% this year. Just last week the government issued a support package to help households whose heat runs on oil. It is now expected that the Bank of England will raise interest rates due to the war (they were projected to make cuts before the conflict). The government is in a difficult position as inflation rises but many call for increased governmental support. 

The recent conflict may be mainly between the US and Iran, but its effects are worldwide. This article only looks at the UK but these effects are being felt throughout the world and are an important aspect of this war which must be considered. 

https://apple.news/AwNGdZd6JQty5oUNFYcc9RQ

The spring housing market is on, but mortgage rates just shot higher. Here’s what to know.

     The housing market this spring has been different than we have normally seen. spring is one of the most popular times to buy a home and there are many homes on the market. But the thing is there aren't more homes on the market because more people are selling homes, its because the homes are taking longer to sell. One of the main reasons being that mortgage rates have gone up by about 6.5% this makes payment for homeowners more expensive. Even though the home prices aren't rising that much the reason for people not buying homes is the increase in interest rates. Builders of homes are also struggling because the cost to make a home has gone up and their final products are taking much longer to sell. Overall because of these higher interest rates its making it harder for producers and consumers when it comes to producing and purchasing a home. 

source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/20/spring-housing-market-mortgage-rates.html

Can We See The End?

     Oil prices ended this past week still above $100 a barrel. With President Trump claiming to have made progress on the Strait of Hormuz, we might finally see a fall in prices. 

    President Trump claims to have given Iran 48 hours from Saturday night to open the Strait of Hormuz for passage. At this point in time, there has not been any sort of movement allowed through the passage. The talks to open the Strait mean that we are more than likely not to see the end of the war in Iran. Ex-Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette says he believes we will see a drop in oil prices in the coming weeks.

    With gas prices staying above $3.50 across most of America, citizens cannot keep up with the prices for much longer. The war in Iran may end in 2 days or 2 years; no one knows. The US government must find a way to lower these prices to keep citizens across the nation from falling behind financially. 

https://www.axios.com/2026/03/22/iran-war-oil-trump-hormuz-strait-threat 

Agricultural and Market Price Volatility (World Economic Forum)

 The war is driving up not just energy prices but also markets for key agricultural inputs like fertilizers, because petrochemical products travel through the same routes affected by the conflict. This has contributed to higher food prices globally, adding inflationary pressure in both developed and developing economies. 

Commodity markets have become more volatile as traders price in the risk of long‑term supply disruption, and countries dependent on energy and food imports face larger fiscal and balance‑of‑payments challenges. This combination of cost pressures and uncertainty can slow global demand and compress economic growth prospects.

source : https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/03/the-global-price-tag-of-war-in-the-middle-east/?utm

Business and Supply Chain Risks (Reuters / Thomson Reuters)

 

Analysts say the conflict has created the potential for a “dual‑chokepoint” shipping crisis, where disruptions in both the Strait of Hormuz and other Middle East sea routes could significantly slow global trade. Higher insurance costs, freight rate spikes, and rerouting of maritime traffic are already driving up the cost of shipping goods ranging from energy to manufactured products. 

These bottlenecks and logistical challenges increase uncertainty for businesses and reduce efficiency in global supply networks, which can lead to slower investment and production as firms adapt to higher risk and cost structures. This could weaken profits and slow growth in sectors dependent on imported inputs.

source : https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en-us/posts/corporates/iran-war-economic-business-impact/?

1. Impact on Asia’s Economy and Global Growth (Time)

 

The war’s economic effects extend beyond energy markets into broader regional economies, especially in Asia, where many countries import large amounts of oil and gas from the Middle East. Rising energy prices and disruption to trade routes could slow industrial activity, hurt growth, and push inflation higher in Asia, which would then ripple through global supply chains and trade balances. 

Higher prices for fossil fuels and the knock‑on effects on food and transportation costs are also straining household budgets and corporate margins, making it harder for central banks to balance inflation and growth concerns. This could lead to slower global economic expansion as countries deal with costlier inputs and weaker trade performance.

source : https://time.com/article/2026/03/16/us-israel-iran-war-trump-asia-economy-oil-energy-inflation-recession/?

The stakes are enormous: how a prolonged Iran war could shock the global economy Richard Partington

 The article explains that what many initially viewed as a short‑lived conflict has already driven oil prices above $100 a barrel and doubled European gas costs, creating heightened inflation and financial market volatility. Central banks and governments worldwide are warning that sustained energy price shocks could slow growth, hurt industries, and raise living costs, making everyday things like petrol, flights, and fertilizers significantly more expensive. 

A key concern is the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one‑fifth of the world’s oil normally flows; if it remains effectively blocked, supplies of oil, gas and critical petrochemical products could tighten further. The article highlights that rising energy and supply chain pressures could ripple into food and manufacturing sectors, dragging down global growth and underscoring how fragile and interconnected the global economy is in the face of geopolitical shocks.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/ng-interactive/2026/mar/22/iran-war-global-economy-donald-trump-oil-prices-inflation?

Are the rich helping us stay out of a recession?

 

The idea of a “K-shaped” economy has become popular since COVID-19, suggesting that the recovery has mainly benefited the rich while lower-income groups have fallen behind. This raises concerns that economic growth depends too heavily on high-income households, meaning a drop in their spending could hurt the entire economy. While this seems believable, especially with claims that the top 10–20% account for a large share of spending, the article argues that these conclusions are based on questionable data. For example, estimates from Moody’s Analytics rely on assumptions about income and savings behavior that may not accurately reflect how people actually spend.

When looking at more reliable data, like surveys from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and analysis from Barclays, the story changes. These sources show that higher-income households make up closer to one-third of total spending, and that share has remained fairly stable over time. Other indicators also don’t support a strong divide; spending growth, wage increases, and consumer confidence are relatively similar across income groups. Overall, while inequality in the U.S. is still an issue, the idea that the economy is being driven only by the wealthy seems exaggerated, making the “K-shaped” recovery more of a catchy concept than a reality.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/03/08/would-america-be-in-recession-without-the-super-rich

War-driven energy price spikes highlight value of renewables: UN climate chief

As war rages in the Middle East, the United Nations executive secretary, Simon Stiell, has focused on shifting Europe toward dependence on renewable energy. In 2025 alone, renewable clean energy received twice as much investment as fossil fuels, underscoring how companies are driving climate action. Voters are advocating for a decrease in fossil fuel dependency. Renewables have been shown to keep prices down and create more jobs while also improving air quality, health, quality of life, and pollution. Economic resilience could be improved by decreasing the world's reliance on fossil fuels from the Middle East and the volatile price changes. Stiell stated in his speech, "History tells us this fossil fuel crisis will happen again and again." The geopolitical shocks will continue because of our dependence on exporting natural resources from the Middle Eastern countries. 

 Link

Wholesale prices rose 0.7% in February, much more than expected and up 3.4% annually

    The newest PPI data came in and the reading was hotter than expected. With the Core PPI was up 0.5% and wholesale prices rose by 0.7%. The market was expecting somewhere between 0.3% and 0.5% increase. A 2.4% increase in food prices boosted the Goods PPI sector along with energy PPI rising by 2.3%. A crazy stat from within the food index was fresh fruit and dry vegetables rose by 48.9%.

    Markets reacted by the DOW dropping by around 100 points and the FED decided to leave rates steady after seeing the hot PPI data. The PPI is a leading indicator in the economy and can be used to predict future inflation rates. I expect inflation to increase after we see the higher prices at the producer level be placed on the consumer. 

Overall, this new PPI data did not even factor in the new impacts from the war in Iran. I expect the PPI to stay hot in the next reading and scaring the economy/markets. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/ppi-inflation-february-2026.html

  

Rising Visitation in National Parks: A Growing Challenge

In recent years, U.S. national parks have experienced a steady increase in visitation, according to the National Park Service. This trend reflects a growing interest in outdoor recreation and a greater appreciation for nature, especially as more people choose to travel domestically. However, this rise in popularity has also introduced several challenges that raise concerns about sustainability and long-term preservation.

One of the most pressing issues is overcrowding in popular parks. High visitor numbers can lead to long wait times, limited access to certain areas, and a less enjoyable experience overall. Beyond convenience, the environmental impact is even more concerning. Increased foot traffic can damage trails, disrupt wildlife habitats, and place added stress on already fragile ecosystems.

This situation highlights the ongoing challenge of balancing accessibility with conservation. While national parks are meant to be enjoyed by the public, they also require protection to ensure they remain intact for future generations. As a result, park officials have begun exploring solutions such as timed entry systems, visitor limits, and increased funding for maintenance and conservation efforts.

Overall, the rise in national park visitation is both encouraging and concerning. It shows that people value nature, but it also underscores the importance of responsible tourism and effective management. Moving forward, how these challenges are addressed will play a key role in preserving these natural spaces.

Source: 

National Park Service

https://www.nps.gov

Energy prices soar as attacks on Middle East gas facilities escalate

Energy prices spikes: Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, hit $115 a barrel this morning after Israeli strikes sparked Iranian retaliation on energy infrastructure across the Middle East, including on Qatar’s critical liquefied natural gas hub Ras Laffan. Threat of retaliation: US President Donald Trump threatened to “blow up” the world’s largest gas field, a key Iranian asset, if Tehran keeps up its attacks on Qatar. He also said the US “knew nothing” about Israel’s plan to strike the South Pars field, but sources have told CNN that the US was aware of it.

Baseball might have a labor war coming

The MLB's Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), the contract governing player wages, working conditions, and revenue sharing between owners and players, expires December 1, 2026. When it does, owners can lock players out and players can strike. Both sides are already signaling hard positions, and a work stoppage is being called near-certain. The core fight is simple: owners want a salary cap, players don't.

Right now teams pay a luxury tax for going over a payroll threshold, but there is no hard ceiling. The Dodgers and Yankees pay the penalty every year and keep spending. A hard cap would actually limit what teams can spend, which pushes player salaries down across the board. The highest-paid stars would take the biggest hit because the teams that would otherwise outbid each other for top talent get legally blocked from doing so. Owners call it competitive balance. Players call it a coordinated wage cut. Both are right because the same mechanism produces both outcomes. Limiting what rich teams can spend simultaneously narrows the gap between big and small market teams and holds player salaries below what a truly open market would produce.

The negotiation is stubborn because both sides are playing a long game. There is one league at the elite level and one union representing its players, which means neither side has a real outside option. Normal market pressure doesn't exist here. The only leverage either side has is the willingness to absorb a work stoppage. Both sides remember 1994, when a strike canceled the World Series and drove fans away for years. That memory creates patience, not urgency. Walking away from the table early only makes sense if the other side is close to blinking, and neither side is.

The deadline is months away and both sides are already dug in. A lockout looks likely. For fans that means missed games and a damaged product. For players it means lost wages. For owners it means lost revenue. Everyone loses in the short run. But both sides believe the long-run structural stakes are worth it, and that calculation is exactly what makes this so hard to resolve. 

Nvidia CEO Huang says company sees more than $1 trillion in sales through 2027

     In a recent Q&A event in San Jose, California, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang expanded on his revenue predictions for the company that he made months earlier, saying he sees the company doing upwards of $1 trillion in data center revenue through 2027. Huang stated that the original prediction, made at the Nvidia GTC in Washington D.C., only included Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips, and not the newly debuting Groq 3 and Vera CPU chips and new storage rack systems. With these introductions, Huang predicted that Nvidia revenue could soar into the $1.25 trillion range. 

    Huang also stated that part of the heightened projection comes from the fact that Nvidia is firing up their supply chain to meet demand coming from China. The company faced pressure initially from the United States government for allowing Nvidia chips to be sent to China, mostly over concerns that US chips would be used to facilitate Chinese military modernization, but has successfully lobbied with the Trump administration to allow chips to enter Chinese markets. The lobbying strategy played to the “America-First” attitude of the Trump administration, as Nvidia claimed that it would be in American interest for China to be dependent on Nvidia, an American company, rather than be pushed to develop its own high-powered processors.

    This morning (Wednesday, March 18), Huang’s prediction is already resulting in pre-market growth, as Nvidia stock has climbed 0.73% as of 7:40am. It will be interesting to see how much Nvidia can grow going into 2027, especially with the introduction of new products and entry into one of the world’s biggest markets. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-ceo-huang-says-company-sees-more-than-1-trillion-in-sales-through-2027-221700475.html

The AI Efficiency Engine: Why the Economy is Growing While the Labor Market Shrinks

Article 

The Article, How AI & Rising Productivity Are Fueling U.S. Growth in 2026 explains that we aren't just in a "weird" economy, we are in a high-productivity transition. 

In late 2025 and early 2026, real value-added output increased by over 5%, while hours worked went up only 0.5%. This means companies are producing significantly more with the same or fewer people. 

We are moving past the initial stage where AI was just a buzzword and into actual implementation.  In sectors like healthcare and logistics, automation is finally clearing bottlenecks, allowing for growth that doesn't require a hiring spree. 

The article suggests we have a labor demand problem, not a supply problem. Firms aren't necessarily failing, they are simply becoming so efficient through technology and AI that they don't need to aggressively expand their payrolls to meet demand. There was a 1.9% drop in unit labor costs. 

Because businesses are becoming so efficient, they don't have a desperate need to hire. Even as the economy grows. The predicted average monthly job gains in 2026 will hover around 40,000 per month. A significant drop from previous years. 

Over 92% of companies plan to increase AI investment. Historically tech adoption follows a "J-Curve" productivity initially dips as firms figure out how to use the new tech, followed by a sharp long term pop. Only 1% of companies currently consider themselves "mature" users. So we appear to be coming up on the sharp curve soon. 

A question to think about is this: If economic growth becomes increasingly detached from job growth due to AI efficiency, how will we need to redefine a healthy economy in the future?

Trump says the U.S. can grow its way out of $37 trillion in debt. Ray Dalio’s debt-cycle research says not so fast

Reading this article, I found myself reflecting on President Trump’s assertion that the United States can simply 'grow out' of its substantial national debt, currently estimated at approximately $37 trillion, a figure that is truly difficult to conceptualize. He refers to mechanisms such as tax reductions and tariffs as if they possess a miraculous capacity to resolve fiscal issues. However, the article incorporates research by Ray Dalio, which significantly tempers this optimistic outlook. Dalio asserts that even when economic indicators appear favorable, robust growth may conceal more profound debt problems that are unlikely to dissipate.

It is remarkable to consider that despite a 3.8% GDP increase, which may seem impressive, the debt remains substantial, with the debt-to-GDP ratio around 100%. The article emphasizes that increased revenue from tariffs falls considerably short of what is necessary to substantially reduce the deficit. Furthermore, some policy proposals, such as redistributing tariff revenue to the populace, might initially seem advantageous but could potentially complicate the fiscal situation further.

This presents an ongoing tension: short-term appearances of economic stability versus long-term sustainability. President Trump seems to assume that economic growth will consistently outpace debt accumulation, yet Dalio’s analysis prompts reflection on whether such optimism is merely wishful thinking, especially given the inherent risks of high debt levels. It appears that strong growth may create a false sense of security, leading stakeholders to overlook underlying vulnerabilities.

Additionally, the manner in which discourse surrounding debt is framed significantly influences public perception. If political figures or the media characterize the debt as 'low relative to growth,' it facilitates complacency. However, close examination of the data reveals that relying solely on future growth to rectify the debt dilemma is impractical without substantive structural reforms.

The article effectively challenges the notion that economic growth alone can resolve fiscal imbalances. While growth is undoubtedly important, expecting it to be the sole solution to a substantial debt problem is unrealistic without fundamental changes. The inclusion of Dalio’s research underscores the complexity of economic cycles and the propensity for optimism to obscure recurring patterns of fiscal risk.

Looking forward, several critical questions arise: Is it feasible for economic growth to keep pace with the rising interest obligations of the debt? What specific measures would be required to reduce the deficit effectively, rather than exacerbate it? Are policies such as tariffs sustainable sources of revenue, or are they merely temporary expedients? It will be essential to monitor not only the numerical data but also the political will to confront long-term fiscal risks, rather than pursuing short-term gains based on optimistic growth narratives.

https://fortune.com/2025/10/04/trump-grow-out-of-debt-ray-dalio-income-growth-late-cycle-crisis-warning/

Oil prices fall as Trump pressures allies to help protect tankers in Strait of Hormuz

Oil prices declined on Monday as President Donald Trump increased pressure on U.S. allies to help protect oil tanker traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures fell about 2.84% to $100.21 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 5.28% to $93.50. Despite the drop, oil prices have surged around 40% during the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, reaching their highest levels since 2022. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy routes, typically transporting around 20% of the world's oil.

Trump said the U.S. is working to form a coalition of countries to escort oil tankers through the strait, though some allies have been hesitant to participate. U.S. officials have confirmed that Iranian oil tankers are still being allowed to pass through the waterway to maintain global supply of oil. Tensions have escalated after the U.S. strikes targeted Iranian military assets on Kharg Island, which is a major hub responsible for most of Iran's oil exports. Analysts warn that further attacks on Iran's oil infrastructure could significantly disrupt global oil markets and provoke retaliation in the region, even as multiple countries release emergency oil reserves to help stabilize the supply.

Oil prices fall as Trump pressures allies to help protect tankers in Strait of Hormuz

Currency and X (Twitter)

Elon Musk is developing a digital payment feature called X Money, which will function similarly to apps like Cash App or Venmo. This new feature would allow the platform X to operate not only as a social media app but also as a financial services app.

The platform plans to give some users early access so they can test the feature and help identify any problems before a wider launch. According to the article, the app may also eventually interact with cryptocurrencies, although those details have not been fully confirmed yet. It would make sense to include this feature because Musk has significant influence over cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin, Bitcoin, and Ethereum. Cryptocurrency is also incorporated into some of his other projects and businesses, such as Tesla and SpaceX. Being able to have many of these tools in one place would be convenient and could make it easier for investors as well.

I think it is interesting how much influence Elon Musk has to transform X into an all-in-one app. The platform was originally used mostly for posting thoughts, news, and updates about different topics. The idea of having everything in one app is convenient, but it also feels a little unusual to combine social media and financial services in the same place. However, it also makes sense that having both a news source and a transactional tool in one place could make it easier to stay updated on the latest information while managing financial activity.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/x-money-reveals-first-images-072809987.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANsZXN-wGAVTPVtvXZh5BWx_dW-LjpJNnoPUq9IYSexV6prsUUB8FW0m2_kwSAjoMk5Vn1_NGyJB8_xcIyQmhPuha1K2HKOpvMTGSyalifYyUPZbCPvrh-3gHl3n0p1PmvTkzfVxldkpYjfBdo9f61oGOKwT_tpR1dTonaSmqzhY

Is US Inflation Finally Cooling Down?

 The latest inflation report just dropped, and things are looking a little more hopeful than they have in a while. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI) results for February 2026 which showed numbers that matched economist predictions. The total inflation rate increased by 0.3% during the month and 2.4% over the last twelve months. The measurement of core inflation which excludes food and energy price fluctuations showed a monthly increase of 0.2% and an annual increase of 2.5%. The current inflation rate shows price increases but their speed has decreased when compared to the extreme fluctuations experienced during previous years. The three main factors driving higher expenses include housing costs and food prices and medical service charges. The ongoing rise of shelter expenses creates severe financial difficulties for all consumers especially those who must pay rent.

The current situation does not permit us to begin celebrations. The economic experts maintain their monitoring of several elements that have the potential to create economic disturbances. The two main unpredictable factors involve rising oil prices and international political conflicts. Energy price increases lead to direct charges that impact your gasoline expenses. The higher transport costs affect everything from product delivery to manufacturing processes and all store items you purchase. The situation shows potential to create inflationary pressures that will develop in the upcoming months because current economic indicators present an appearance of stability. The situation presents an image of normal data yet there exists a significant amount of hidden uncertainty that remains active within the system.

Our current situation brings us to this point. The Federal Reserve intends to maintain its current position until it obtains complete information about future developments before deciding to decrease interest rates. The report shows that inflation decreases which constitutes positive news but economists consider the issue to remain active. The future outcomes will depend on three major factors which include energy prices and international political events and Federal Reserve decisions. The present situation shows us ongoing gradual development which will require our continued observation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/cpi-inflation-report-february-2026.html

Berkshire Hathaway’s New CEO Signals Confidence With $15M Stock Purchase

Berkshire Hathaway’s new CEO, Greg Abel, recently purchased $15 million worth of company stock, roughly equal to his entire after-tax salary. The purchase was revealed in regulatory filings and comes at the same time the company has restarted its own share buyback program. The purchase is notable because it comes early in Abel’s career as CEO, after Warren Buffett stepped down from the role at the beginning of 2026 while remaining chairman. Abel explained that the decision to disclose the buyback activity was meant to provide transparency during the leadership transition. He also confirmed that Buffett was consulted on the timing and valuation of the repurchase decision.

Berkshire has a policy allowing it to buy back shares when management believes the stock is trading below its intrinsic value. This is the first repurchase since May 2024. The company had previously bought back large amounts of stock from 2018–2024 before pausing when the share price hit record highs in 2025.

Shares of Berkshire Hathaway’s Class B stock rose about 1% in premarket trading following the news. However, the stock has had a mixed performance recently. It is down about 3% so far in 2026, fell almost 5% after its latest earnings report, currently trading below key moving averages, and gained 11% in 2025, underperforming the S&P 500, which rose 16%. 

Abel’s $15 million stock purchase and Berkshire’s renewed buybacks suggest that management believes the stock is currently undervalued. If investors agree with that assessment, this could help support or gradually increase the stock price over time.

New CEO Buys $15 million in stock, Berkshire Restarts Buybacks

UAE freezing Iranian assets

The United Arab Emirates is reportedly considering freezing Iranian assets held within its financial system as tensions in the Middle East escalate. Freezing assets prevents a country from accessing money stored abroad, which limits the ability to internationally trade, stabilize its currency, or finance government activities. For Iran, which already faces heavy international sanctions, losing access to funds in a major financial support like the UAE could further damage its economy. This would likely increase pressure on Iran’s currency, reduce foreign currency reserves, and make it harder for the country to import goods or manage inflation.

The potential decision could also have broader economic impacts beyond Iran. Economic instability in the region can influence global energy markets, especially because the Middle East plays an important role in oil production and transportation. If tensions escalate further, disruptions near important shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices higher. This would affect inflation and economic stability worldwide. Overall, the UAE’s consideration of freezing Iranian assets highlights how financial measures have become an important tool in modern conflicts, where economic pressure could be used to influence political outcomes.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/uae-mulls-freezing-iranian-assets-as-middle-east-conflict-escalates-wsj-.html

The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, stoking labor market worries

The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that U.S economy lost 92,000 jobs in February. This comes as a shock as January had a gain of 126,000 jobs and forecasts were shown have an additional increase of 50,000 jobs and unemployment to stay at 4.3%. The unemployment rate has gone up to 4.4%. Numbers from December and January were updated and came with some contractions. January stellar payrolls figure went from 130,000 to 126,000 and December's figure of 50,000 jobs added was updated to a contraction of 17,000 jobs. With those adjustments, 2025 is the first year to have five months of contractions in the labor market since 2010. Furthermore, the labor force participation rate has fallen from 62.5% to 62%.

These numbers are quite surprising as experts have been stating that our labor market is slowing growing again and hiring is coming back. Of course, one bad month won't dictate what the rest of the year will look like but it's still very surprising and the markets are reacting to this shock. There have been a few issues in fixing the economy like Trump's tariffs and government shutdowns that haven't helped speed up the process. The labor market hasn't been doing well for a while with there being various layoffs and less labor force participation. With the current conflict with Iran, the report for the labor force and overall economy in March is going to look interesting.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/2026-labor-market-set-begin-taking-shape-february-jobs-report-rcna261994

Gas Prices, Energy Supply, and Why a Few Dollars per Barrel Can Move the Whole Economy

Most of the recent coverage has centered around the geopolitical risks that could boost prices, even if the increase is “only” several dollars per barrel. That’s important from a macro standpoint because one of the first areas that gets reflected in the economy is the price of gasoline. If the price of oil increases, that’s effectively a tax increase for the end consumer, which means that their discretionary spending power is reduced.

The inflation aspect is what makes this particularly important for the markets. If the price of oil increases, that means that inflation could accelerate, which means that interest rates could remain high for longer than people expect. Even if core inflation is calm, the price of oil can have an impact on the service sector through distribution. The takeaway here is that an increase in the price of oil can have the effect of slowing down the economy, which is particularly concerning because that’s the type of environment that makes monetary policy particularly tricky. 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/oil-experts-predict-slight-rise-gas-prices-global-tensions-mount

Banking, payments services disrupted after Amazon UAE data centers hit in drone strikes

 Drone strikes on the Amazon Web Services data centers in the United Arab Emirates have caused a widespread outage across the apps, banking services, and financial platforms. AWS reported that two facilities in UAE and one in Bahrain were damaged from the events, leading to power disruptions that forced systems offline. Several companies that rely on AWS infrastructure have experienced service interruptions, including payment platforms Alaan and Hubby, and banks such as the Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank. 

The strike comes amid escalating tensions following the United States and Israeli attacks on Iran over the weekend. These events triggered retaliatory actions across the Middle East. While AWS continues to push for recovery efforts, the incident highlights how geopolitical conflict can disrupt digital infrastructure and services worldwide. 

Inflation Fears Rise as Manufacturing Costs Spike in February

In early March, data showed a surprising jump in manufacturing prices in the United States, raising concerns about inflation staying higher than expected. According to the February report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the Prices Paid Index—a key measure of how much manufacturers are paying for raw materials—surged to a reading of 70.5, far above January’s level and economist forecasts. This indicates that factories are seeing significantly higher input costs, which can eventually trickle down to consumer prices and push inflation up. At the same time, the overall manufacturing sector still showed modest growth, but the rapidly rising costs have sparked uncertainty in markets and among policymakers. If inflation remains strong, the Federal Reserve might feel pressure to keep interest rates higher for longer, which could slow other parts of the economy like housing or investment.

https://markets.chroniclejournal.com/chroniclejournal/article/marketminute-2026-3-2-inflation-alarm-ism-manufacturing-prices-index-surges-to-705-as-tariffs-bite-into-second-month-of-growth

Is AI Really Boosting Overall Productivity in The Economy?

    Artificial intelligence is often talked about as the next big thing that will boost the U.S. economy. Productivity simply means how much workers produce per hour, and it is one of the main reasons wages and living standards rise over time. Recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows productivity has improved in the past year, but the increases have not been steady. While some companies are clearly using AI to work faster and cut costs, there is not yet clear proof that AI has permanently raised productivity across the whole economy.

If AI truly improves productivity in a lasting way, the economy could grow faster without causing inflation, which would be a major benefit. Groups like the International Monetary Fund and the McKinsey Global Institute say AI has the potential to increase output over time, but they also explain that big technological changes usually take years to fully show up in national data. For now, AI looks promising, but the large, long term productivity boom many investors expect has not clearly appeared in the numbers yet.

Sources:

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Labor Productivity and Costs
https://www.bls.gov/lpc/

McKinsey Global Institute – The Economic Potential of Generative AI
https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier

Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz

Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, sending shockwaves across global energy markets. Many countries will be affected, but the most pain will be felt in Asian countries. The strait is vital for oil trade, with roughly 13 million barrels per day passing through it in 2025. Oil prices have already significantly increased, and this development could make matters worse. Some specific countries that will be affected are China, Japan, South Korea, and other countries in Southeast Asia. It's the expectation that they'll see inflation first, and shortages second. However, China has a good amount of reserves to weather the storm for a while, but the uncertainty around this circumstance could cause economic hardship for any country caught in the crossfire of this war.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/03/strait-of-hormuz-closure-which-countries-will-be-hit-the-most.html 

Core whole sales prices increases by 0.8%, much more than expected.

       In January, there was hopes that the inflation would ease, however that was not the case. The PPI adjusted to a 0.8% after a gain of 0.6% in December. The headline PPI rose 0.5%, going above the forecast of 0.3% than in the prior month. During 2025, wholesale prices increases to 3.6%, which is beyond the Federal reserves 2% inflation goals. This tells us that inflation is still a factor in our economy. With regards to service prices, this is the main factor that drove the increase of wholesale prices, an 0.8% monthly rise was the highest since July of 2025. Goods fell by 0.3%, but core goods rose to 0.7%. 

        President Donald Trump believes inflation has been controlled. The pressures indicated by the PPI will cause the Fed to become cautious while weighing the pending moves on interest rates. Until the summer, the Fed will stay on the sidelines as expected by the market, though Trump has pushed for lower rates. However, economists are worried that Trump's tariffs will push for higher inflation, but is expected to be temporary by the Fed officials. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/27/ppi-january-2026-.html

Difficult Month for Amazon: Geopolitical Risk Meets Market Uncertainty

In two recent articles, we can see how the effects of uncertainty in the global economy has impacted Amazon. According to CNBC, Amazon has confirmed that drone strikes have damaged three Amazon Web Services (AWS) facilities in the UAE and Bahrain. Around a similar time, TipRanks reported that Amazon stock experienced its worst month since 2022. While these stories may seem separate, they both highlight the risk and uncertainties that large global companies are facing.

The CNBC article explains that these drone strikes impacted data centers in the Middle East that support cloud services in the region. AWS is one of Amazon’s most profitable streams of revenue and plays a huge role in powering businesses that rely on the cloud. Though the majority of updates from war in the Middle East regard oil concerns, the digital infrastructure is also being affected. With the world's economy becoming increasingly dependent on technology and data centers, disruptions to cloud services can have rippling effects across a multitude of industries.

Putting aside the damages of facilities in the Middle East, Amazon’s stock has struggled. According to TipRanks, investors are reacting with caution as Amazon increases their spending on AI and data center expansions. While they are investing into growth, it isn’t certain that these expansions will be sustainable. Having a period of aggressive expansion combined with geopolitical instability could explain why markets are acting nervous. That being said, Amazon is a fundamentally strong company so these issues should only affect them in the short-run.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/02/amazon-says-drone-strikes-damaged-3-facilities-in-uae-and-bahrain.html
https://www.tipranks.com/news/amazon-stock-amzn-sees-its-worst-month-since-2022#google_vignette

What war with Iran means for prices and interest rates

 Last week military actions occurred in the Middle East. U.S. and allied carried out strikes in Iran. This ended up triggering reactions to interest rates and prices. Oil prices shot up and global stocks fell immediately. Economist say these actions won't affect the Federal reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions. Iran's supreme leader was killed in these attacks leading to a chain of events that affect more than just Iran. There has been a large backup of traffic in Iran, it is expected to lead to higher prices in gas for American consumers. It is said to been too early to really know what is going on. There shouldn't be a panic for gas but there not sure yet. Donald Trump said that this last for about 4-5 weeks. 

If the war does end up lasting a period of time American consumers may see skyrocketing energy costs that could push the U.S. economy towards stagflation. Stagflation occurs when inflation is high, slow or negative economic growth, and rising unemployment. This combination is very dangerous for the economy because the policy tools for inflation can worsen unemployment, and policies to reduce unemployment. The U.S. remains strong right now but there are warning signs that are occurring. Oil prices are rising; inflation is higher than the target. Higher gas prices could raise the cost of materials; this would lead to companies having to cut down on materials leading to missing out on more customers. These attacks have multiple impacts that go past military and physical attacks. It effects the economy in so many ways that are often looked past. All of these events have chain reactions that can affect everything.

How does war with Iran affect prices, interest rates, supply chains?

Inflation Progress Could Be Undone by The Middle East Conflict

 Recent comments from President Donald Trump declaring inflation “tamed” have been overshadowed by fresh concerns in global markets as tensions in the Middle East threaten to push prices higher once again. While U.S. inflation has eased from its recent peaks, conflict involving Iran is now spiking oil prices, raising the risk of renewed price pressures for consumers and complicating the Federal Reserve’s path forward. 

Economists caution that even if the immediate impact on U.S. inflation remains modest, sustained geopolitical instability could create “stagflationary” pressures, a combination of slowing growth and rising prices. That would make it harder for the Federal Reserve to justify cutting interest rates later this year, even as policymakers continue to watch inflation trends.

For consumers, the brewing crisis serves as a reminder that global events, particularly those tied to energy production and transport, still have a direct line to prices at the pump and on store shelves. What looks like progress on inflation one week can be threatened by geopolitical volatility the next.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/02/as-trump-declares-inflation-tamed-iran-conflict-threatens-new-price-pressures.html

A Nine Nation War

The war between the U.S. and Iran has turned into a nine nation war. A conflict that began with a single strike has now pulled in the entire region, which includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait. Also Western allies like the UK. Even the countries that are neutral are finding it impossible as drones and missiles cross into their airspace daily. Even more chaos when Kuwaiti air defenses accidentally shot down three U.S. fighter jets because of radar confusion during a Iranian missile barrage.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/war-in-middle-east-widens-as-israeli-and-u-s-planes-pound-iran-and-tehran-and-its-proxies-hit-back 

Private Credit Fund Underperformance Suggests Potential Stock Market Volatility

Markets have had substantial concerns about the stability and security of private credit funds in recent months. 

Private credit funds are non-bank lenders that lend directly to companies, promising high rates of return to their investors and flexibility for their borrowers. 

Following several major private credit loans that have recently gone into default, markets have begun to question whether private credit firms are wisely allocating their capital. Details on private credit loans are often opaque, and if private credit firms begin experiencing extreme credit losses, their troubles can flow up to banks, as they often borrow from banks themselves, which can destabilize the larger financial system.

The State Street SPDR Blackstone Senior Loan ETF is currently down 4% YTD and is considered a bellwether for the overall performance of the stock market, because the fund has broad exposure to loans across many industries, company sizes, and investment grades, and if its borrowers underperform, the effect will trickle out to the rest of the economy, as described before. The fund often drops below its 200-day moving average before major corrections of the S&P500, and is currently trading 4.87% below the moving average, suggesting potential volatility in the wider stock market in the coming weeks.

Source: https://www.barrons.com/articles/private-credit-stocks-senior-loan-etf-27d5eee5?siteid=yhoof2 

Top earners are more afraid for their employment because of AI

In late February 2026, a new trend emerged in the U.S. labor market: higher-income workers are now expressing more fear about losing their jobs to artificial intelligence than lower-income workers, reversing the traditional employment anxiety patterns. According to recent surveys, confidence in the labor market among top earners has fallen to levels that have not seen since the late 1970s, with many pointing out the rise of AI as a key factor. 

Data from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers shows that sentiment about future job prospects has deteriorated most sharply among the top third of earners, while lower-income workers reported relatively higher labor confidence. Similarly, the New York Federal Reserve’s monthly survey indicates that expectations of finding new employment within three months if displaced are near record lows for higher-income workers. 

Additionally, payroll processing firm ADP reports that turnover rates in traditionally white-collar occupations have plummeted to historic lows, suggesting that many higher-income professionals are choosing to stay in their current roles amid fears of AI-driven disruption. Despite these concerns, unemployment remains relatively low in high-skill sectors such as finance, indicating that the job market is still strong even as anxiety rises. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/25/top-earners-are-more-afraid-for-their-employment-than-lower-income-as-ai-threat-increases.html

How the Iran War Is Affecting the World Economy

 

How the Iran War Is Affecting the World Economy

The recent war involving Iran has already started to affect the global economy in big ways. One of the biggest impacts is on oil prices. Because Iran and other countries in the Middle East produce a lot of oil, fighting there makes traders nervous and pushes prices up. Right now, oil has jumped almost 8–10% and could go even higher if shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz get blocked longer. Higher oil prices make everything that uses fuel more expensive, which can cause inflation in many countries. 

Stock markets have also dropped because investors are worried about the future. When war scares people, they often sell stocks and buy “safe” things like gold. This kind of volatility can slow economic growth because companies and consumers spend less when they’re uncertain. 

Inside Iran, the economy was already struggling before this war from sanctions and inflation, and now conflict just makes it worse by disrupting trade and energy sales. That could mean slower growth and tougher living conditions for regular people. 

Overall, the war is showing how connected today’s world economy is, a conflict in one region affects prices, markets, and growth almost everywhere.

Sources: The Guardian, Bloomberg, ing.com

Jamie Dimon says AI euphoria, record stocks and banks doing 'dumb things' could lead to another financial crisis.

 Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, says that with our current financial situation and banks doing "dumb things" like taking on risky loans that could put the US in a similar market situation to how it was before the financial crisis of 2008. He said to investors that the conditions of the market, including the record levels, could be a cause for concern. He sights that he saw this same trend from 2005-2007, where everyone was making a lot of money and the sky was the limit just for it to crash back down. Dimon says that the recent concerns among investors about AI disrupting the software sector is a typical disruption in the past financial markets. He cited some previous "stable bets" such as newspapers and utility/phone companies that developed some problems, and said that this time it may be the software sector due to AI causing the industry to be challenged. 

https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/24/economy/jamie-dimon-warning 

Greenland’s Hidden Wealth: Treasure or Myth?

In an episode of The Indicator from Planet Money by NPR, hosts Darian Woods and Wailin Wong explore whether Greenland is truly an untapped land of riches by telling the story of geologist Greg Barnes, who discovered a large rare-earth mineral deposit that could help countries like the United States reduce reliance on China for critical materials used in technology and clean energy; this strategic importance even sparked political interest, including talk from Donald Trump about acquiring Greenland. However, the podcast explains that valuable minerals underground don’t automatically mean easy profits, because Greenland faces huge obstacles like extreme weather, limited roads and energy, environmental risks, and local opposition to mining projects, all of which make extraction expensive and slow. While Barnes’s project may eventually produce rare earth elements, experts say Greenland’s geology alone doesn’t guarantee economic success, showing that the idea of Greenland as a simple treasure trove is more myth than reality.

https://www.npr.org/transcripts/nx-s1-5683139

Are big companies staying private too long, and does that matter for the macroeconomy?

Are big companies staying private too long, and how does that affect the macroeconomy?

The question of whether firms are “staying private too long” goes beyond corporate governance, it is dependent on where capital formation occurs, who captures the returns, and how those choices shape the level and volatility of national income over the business cycle.

Typically, firms grow, then go public to raise capital, diversify ownership, and fund investment. Public equity markets are where household savings meet firm investment, and movements in those markets feed directly into national income, productivity, and the business cycle.

In practice, a growing share of this process now happens in private markets. Large, mature firms can raise substantial amounts of capital without listing. They rely on private equity, venture capital, sovereign wealth funds, and private credit. As a result, more capital formation and value creation occurs before any IPO, in venues that are less transparent and accessible to typical households.

This has three important macro channels.

The first is capital formation. Access to deep private capital allows firms to invest in long horizon projects with less pressure to meet quarterly earnings targets. Disclosure requirements are lighter and financing terms are more flexible, which can support higher and more patient investment in both physical and intangible capital. At the aggregate level, this can raise investment and the capital stock and support higher trend output. The open question is whether the opacity of private markets leads to efficient allocation of this capital or to misallocation that does not show up until later in the cycle.

The second channel is distributional. Participation in private markets is concentrated among institutions and high net worth investors. When the highest growth phase of a firm’s life happens while it is still private, most of the capital gains accrue to a relatively narrow segment of the population. By the time the firm reaches public markets, much of the explosive upside may already be realized. This reinforces wealth and income inequality and changes the path of aggregate consumption, since high wealth households have lower marginal propensities to consume and different portfolio choices than the median household.

The third channel is business cycle dynamics. Private capital can stabilize or amplify shocks. In expansions, abundant private funding can smooth temporary earnings declines and maintain investment when public markets might react sharply. In downturns, the same illiquidity and opacity can become a liability. A synchronized pullback by private investors can trigger a rapid contraction in funding for investment that is not immediately visible in public prices but still transmits to output, employment, and measured GDP.

Are Jack Dorsey’s aggressive job cuts the start of an AI jobs apocalypse? Economists weigh in (CNBC)

 A recent Are Jack Dorsey’s aggressive job cuts the start of an AI jobs apocalypse? Economists weigh in (CNBC)-themed discussion has reignited a broader debate about how artificial intelligence is reshaping work in the tech world. At the center of it is Block Inc., the fintech company led by CEO Jack Dorsey, which announced cuts of roughly 4,000 positions  almost half its workforce as part of a shift toward AI-driven operations rather than financial distress. Dorsey framed this move as proactive adaptation to a future where “intelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company,” a message echoed in the strong market reaction, with Block’s shares jumping sharply on the news.

Economists and industry observers are split on what this means for the broader job market. Some see Dorsey’s decision as one of the first high-profile instances of a major company explicitly attributing layoffs to AI efficiencies a potential harbinger of wider structural shifts in employment. Others caution that such rhetoric can sometimes mask traditional cost-cutting, or that technology historically both displaces and creates jobs in new areas. What’s clear is that the conversation about AI’s long-term impact on jobs whether it signals a looming “jobs apocalypse” or a transformative transition is only getting louder.

Venezuela’s Capital, Laid Low by Misrule, Is Stirring Back to Life

 It is heartbreaking to see how Caracas continues to struggle with such extreme economic inequality. While some areas show signs of recovery through dollarization, the reality for most people is still a constant battle against inflation and basic costs. It’s a stark reminder of how much global politics and shifting sanctions directly impact the daily lives of families just trying to get by.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/26/world/americas/caracas-venezuela-economy.html

What will happen to gas prices with the strike on Iran

 Gas prices rising in recent days show how closely global energy markets are tied to politics around the world. Especially after President Trump decided to launch military strikes against Iran. According to reporting by USA Today, the attacks have increased uncertainty in oil markets, and investors fear potential disruptions in the Middle East. The Middle East is crucial to the global Oil supply and shipping routes. Even without an immediate interruption, the higher risk alone has pushed crude oil prices upward, and those increases tend to flow directly to consumers, resulting in higher gas prices. As a result of the bombings, Americans may end up seeing an increase in gas prices in the coming weeks. 

Will US attacks on Iran drive up gas prices? Here's what we know.

FIFA Raises Prize Money for 2026 World Cup as Soccer Revenue Grows

 FIFA has increased the prize money for the FIFA World Cup 2026. The total prize pool will be about $655 million, and the winning team could earn around $50 million, the highest ever. The 2026 tournament will be hosted mainly in the United States, along with Canada and Mexico. The tournament is expected to generate more than $10 billion in revenue across host nations, driving massive spending on infrastructure, tourism, and media rights and offering a big financial boost to local economies and national associations.  

 However, some teams and economists warn that rising costs and travel demands might outweigh gains for smaller football associations, showing that bigger prize pools don’t automatically mean more profit for all.  

https://www.reuters.com/article/soccer-worldcup-prizemoney-2026-idUSL1N3C22XY

What’s at Stake for Oil Markets as Trump Strikes Iran

 With the recent military strikes on Iran from the United States, there is a new risk to oil markets around the world. At the moment, it is not known if energy facilities were damaged, but Iran produces a little over 3 million barrels of oil per day, which translates to about 3 percent of the global supply. Since the damage has been done, the shipping route through the Straight of Hormuz has slowed down due to oil tankers avoiding it, causing crowding near the entrance and leading people to panic, believing the route is at risk of disruption. Current traders are monitoring whether there will be a real disruption to Iran's exports and whether the Straight of Hormuz could close, causing prices to increase significantly.