With trade tensions rising and traders betting on a cooling market, some
speculate that we could be heading into a recession. One factor in some of these
warnings is the decline in consumer confidence, which according to the
University of Michigan’s consumer survey has declined by 10.5%. This can impact
retail sales, as consumers are less willing to spend money if they are unsure of what is to
come. Although consumer confidence is down the CPI numbers have not shown any signs of dipping. Another factor is inflation in general is at 2.7% which is high compared to the 2.5% forecasted by the FED. The warning signs for a recession are not cohesive across the board, with Job openings and household spending holding steady, showing that a recession is not necessarily shortly for certain.
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Consumer confidence has undoubtedly dropped, yet inflation is still hovering above the Fed's target and job openings are remaining solid. The mix of signals suggests the economy isn't giving clears signs of a recession just yet. It will be important to continue to monitor whether spending and job growth continue to counter falling sentiment.
ReplyDeleteInteresting post! The drop in consumer confidence is definitely a red flag, but steady job openings and spending suggest we’re not in full recession territory yet. It feels more like economic uncertainty than a clear downturn—for now.
ReplyDeleteIt’s interesting how consumer confidence is down, yet job openings and household spending are holding steady. It makes you wonder if the economy is truly headed for a recession or just experiencing a temporary slowdown.
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