Recently, two Federal Reserve economic models forecasted dramatic declines in American GDP and economic growth. The first model, from the New York Fed, is predicting a fourth quarter GDP growth of 0.4%, and this is down from its initial forecast of 0.7%. The second model, from the Atlanta Fed, initially predicted a fourth quarter GDP growth of 1.0%, but this figure has also fallen significantly. Currently, the Atlanta Fed is forecasting a 0.3% growth in the fourth quarter. These economic figures fluctuate frequently, though, so an economic boost in late November and December could potentially lead to a better than expected economic and GDP growth. According to the article, the low economic forecasts are predominantly based on “negative surprises in recent economic reports” and “lukewarm consumer spending numbers.”
This is very intriguing, what do you think that the lukewarm consumer spending number will continue on the path that its going down even with the likely increase due to the holidays?
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