The Job reports published from data in the month of August gives insight to stability. The unemployment rate stayed constant at 3.7 percent which is lower than the average of slightly above 5%. The Labor force participation also increased making the unemployment rate more impressive. However, the U-6 is broader measure of employment and their calculations had unemployment rise from 7% to 7.2% last month. Another concerning area is warehousing and transportation industries loosing a combined 7,000 jobs. Economists are relating this to the trade-war with China, but regardless it's a concerning area for significant job loss, as it shows a relation with consumer spending. Unemployment over-all is in a solid place moving forward, assuming it can remain consistent over the coming months.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/jobs-report-paints-mixed-picture-health-economy-n1050681
If job growth continues to slow I could see the unemployment rate start to creep up and we could be facing a true recession threat, hopefully upcoming trade talks and the Feds decision to lower interest rates can counter that.
ReplyDeleteThe trade war with China has caused prices of many intermediary goods to significantly increase that domestic producers import, for example, steel, and the higher cost is then passed on to the producer and ultimately the consumer. This puts pressure on wages for workers in the manufacturin industry which is indeed a driving factor for job loss in this area, and if Trump continues to impose more tarrifs, I could see more job loss in these industries.
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