http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/04/03/can-anyone-predict-jobs-numbers/
In this article, the author talks about how difficult it is to predict job growth numbers accurately. Though typically, the monthly Labor Department report is considered to be quite accurate, a large number of private organizations have also started estimating and predicting job growth numbers. In principle, it is better to have a number of sources for data on job statistics, though most of these private firms are not able to provide accurate data and predictions. But the fact is that they all have only recently developed their methods of data collection. Therefore, one needs to give them time in order to start competing with, and hopefully correcting, the Labor Department report.
Employment statistics are now more important than ever because the future of the Fed's current monetary policy depends on them. As the unemployment goes down, the Fed will stop keeping the interest rates so low and would reduce the effect of the accommodating monetary policy. Hence, accurate jobs estimates are important to investors as well as consumers.
In this article, the author talks about how difficult it is to predict job growth numbers accurately. Though typically, the monthly Labor Department report is considered to be quite accurate, a large number of private organizations have also started estimating and predicting job growth numbers. In principle, it is better to have a number of sources for data on job statistics, though most of these private firms are not able to provide accurate data and predictions. But the fact is that they all have only recently developed their methods of data collection. Therefore, one needs to give them time in order to start competing with, and hopefully correcting, the Labor Department report.
Employment statistics are now more important than ever because the future of the Fed's current monetary policy depends on them. As the unemployment goes down, the Fed will stop keeping the interest rates so low and would reduce the effect of the accommodating monetary policy. Hence, accurate jobs estimates are important to investors as well as consumers.
Hopefully the Fed will not raise the interest rates too soon because I believe that our economy could still use more stimulation of investment and consumption.
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