Link: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-02-08/the-u-dot-s-dot-economy-probably-grew-after-all-thanks-to-oil#r=nav-r-story
Due to more recent estimates on the fourth quarter of 2012, the net change in the size of the US economy seems to be minimal in either gains or losses instead of just a shrinkage. This is because of recent trade figures that have come into being that were not available during the previous estimation of our GDP. These gains on the initial estimation are said to be because of an almost 16 year low of the US's imports of crude oil coupled with a rise in fuel exports. To counter this though, lower than expected numbers on wholesale inventories were released by the government.
Since the Commerce's Bureau of Consumer Analysis puts out an estimate about a month after the end of each quarter, they have to make assumptions in order to fill the holes by the data that has not yet been collected. Because of the counteractive nature of these two new trade releases, the net change in our GDP will be small whether or not it shrinks or grows.
I wonder if the fall in imports of crude oil can be credited to all the heavy snowfall and the storms that have occurred recently in the US. It was harder to get on the road so naturally the demand for cars must have fallen. there were also many cancelled flights so that could have impacted the lower demand for petroleum.
ReplyDelete