Sunday, February 10, 2013

Are government bond-markets in the euro zone recovering?

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21569727-government-bond-markets-peripheral-countries-are-soaring-time-celebrate

According to this article it appears that many peripheral countries in the euro-zone are experiencing positive trends in the purchases of government bonds, particularly in Spain and Italy. Both Spain and Italy's interest rates on ten-year bonds have dropped below 5%, which is 2.5 points lower than the previous years. With the increased sales in long term bonds some economic analysts say that the banks in the core parts of Europe will be able to payback 100-200 billion dollars of the 1 trillion borrowed from the European Central Bank as a stimulus package earlier in the debt crisis. Even the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, stated, "there is a positive contain sweeping through the Europe's Economy".

However, the bond-market alone is not an accurate representation of total economic recovery since unemployment in most European countries is still dangerously high and small businesses in most of these countries are suffering from lack of bank finance. Since these small firms are borrowing at such high interest rates they have to pay heavily for all money loaned and this ultimately reduces the total output of these euro-zone countries. The biggest issue this article raised with the possible turn-around of the European economy is that this "positive contagion"  represents a possible obstacle since most politicians in these countries need extreme circumstances to motivate action and without the heavy pressure to fix the economy, tough economic decisions regarding reform might be pushed off or set aside.

1 comment:

  1. Even though Spain and Italy's interest rates have increased and it seems that there heading towards the right direction, that might be untrue. There are multiple issues that these countries must fix. The connection between weak banks and weak governments, unemployment rising and both countries missed their deficit reduction targets. If these problems don't get fixed, both countries won't have time to celebrate anything.

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