Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Why don’t trade sanctions work in North Korea?


Many people around the world are worried about the unstable situation in North Korea. One way the US has tried to get North Korea to change its plans to continue launching missiles and testing weapons is by imposing trade sanctions.

But one reason these sanctions haven’t really worked is that North Korea’s domestic economy has been growing and so the country does not consider itself as dependent on foreign trade with many other countries. A recent Bloomberg article reported that North Korea’s economy (GDP) grew nearly 4% last year—the fastest pace in seventeen years. Another main reason the sanctions don’t work is that China which is a major trade partner, continues to trade strongly with North Korea. China has only really banned coal exports to North Korea but continues to allow trade in other goods. Finally, a third reason North Korea’s economy continues to do well, according to the Bloomberg article, is that it no longer is a pure socialist economy but has been moving in the direction of capitalism. There are signs of markets where equilibrium falls where supply equals demand—as laws have been loosened to permit firms to hire and fire workers more easily and do business with firms that they choose.

I can understand why continued trade with China would be a big reason for North Korea’s economy continuing to grow strongly. China makes so many goods cheaply and in large volume. Last week, it was reported by CNBC that Chinese banks were putting sanctions on North Korea to try to eliminate financial support, under US pressure. One point that’s worth keeping in mind in the CNBC article is that China is not happy for the US leaving the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, a trade agreement involving many countries. So the US doesn’t really have a right to pressure China on trade policy when the US doesn’t play fair on other trade agreements. All in all, it’s clear that when countries make decisions about how and with which countries they trade (or do not), their can be some very complicated  side effects in other areas of policy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/26/wilbur-ross-on-north-korea-trade-with-china-and-economy.html

4 comments:

  1. I'm not sure how accurate the economic growth of North Korea is, but China definitely seems to be holding a grudge on the United States for abandoning the agreement. The US government should handle this issue in a more serious manner, since it involves a country with a nuke.

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  2. I'm not sure how accurate the economic growth of North Korea is, but China definitely seems to be holding a grudge on the United States for abandoning the agreement. The US government should handle this issue in a more serious manner, since it involves a country with a nuke.

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    1. Accuracy of the data could be a problem since N. Korea is secretive. And just a few days ago, N. Korea's representative at the UN blamed the US for try
      ing to prevent economic development of N. Korea. He said that N. Korea would be self reliant if it had to despite economic sanctions and would stand up to the US.
      http://www.livemint.com/Politics/TFg3TOD3DVNE55AQRMR9QJ/North-Korea-accuses-US-of-blocking-development.html

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  3. I looked into North Korea's exchange rate to see if it was poor as well (correlating with the poor net exports) but it too was low. The country is doing the right thing by improving their domestic economy though. They should continue to build it up, however, if they want to keep growing exponentially then they must improve trade. The U.S. leaving the TPPA obviously doesn't help but China is still a very useful source. It will be interesting to see how their economy fairs in the future and how they will go about improving their allies.

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