Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Scotland should avoid Quebec’s fate


After Scotland’s vote against independence on September 18th, many have been watching to see what will happen to the country’s economy. This article says that Scotland should be able to avoid the same fate that Quebec met after both of their referendums.

When Quebec voted against independence in both 1980 and 1995, their economic growth was much slower than the rest of the country, especially after the 1995 vote. This was partially due to the fact that the margin between votes was extremely small in the second referendum with only a 1.2% difference between votes. This caused money to flow out of the province, leading to uneasiness in investors.

In Scotland’s case, over 55% of voters voted against independence, a larger margin than expected. Analysts also say that the chances of another Scottish referendum are small, a belief that was reinforced on Friday when Scotland’s nationalist leader, Alex Salmond, resigned. This should help to ease any uncertainties that investors have, helping to keep money from flowing out of the country and ultimately decreasing the impact that the referendum could have on the economy.

Although it’s unlikely that Scotland will face the same problems as Quebec, the author says that the country will still need quickly rebuild business confidence since many were worried about the impact the vote would have on trade and prices. Boosting business confidence will help to reduce any risks.

It’s good to know that Scotland will likely not face any issues similar to the ones faced by Quebec after the independence referendum. It will be interesting to see how the country handles rebuilding business confidence in coming months.

1 comment:

  1. It will be interesting to see how long the effects of the vote last.Did investment decrease leading up to the vote and, if so, will it take long to regain? Despite the country's efforts to rebuild business confidence in the coming months, investors may be wary of returning.

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