After Scotland’s vote
against independence on September 18th, many have been watching to
see what will happen to the country’s economy. This article says that Scotland
should be able to avoid the same fate that Quebec met after both of their
referendums.
When Quebec voted
against independence in both 1980 and 1995, their economic growth was much
slower than the rest of the country, especially after the 1995 vote. This was
partially due to the fact that the margin between votes was extremely small in the
second referendum with only a 1.2% difference between votes. This caused money
to flow out of the province, leading to uneasiness in investors.
In Scotland’s case, over
55% of voters voted against independence, a larger margin than expected. Analysts
also say that the chances of another Scottish referendum are small, a belief
that was reinforced on Friday when Scotland’s nationalist leader, Alex Salmond,
resigned. This should help to ease any uncertainties that investors have,
helping to keep money from flowing out of the country and ultimately decreasing
the impact that the referendum could have on the economy.
Although it’s unlikely
that Scotland will face the same problems as Quebec, the author says that the
country will still need quickly rebuild business confidence since many were
worried about the impact the vote would have on trade and prices. Boosting
business confidence will help to reduce any risks.
It’s good to know that
Scotland will likely not face any issues similar to the ones faced by Quebec after
the independence referendum. It will be interesting to see how the country handles
rebuilding business confidence in coming months.
It will be interesting to see how long the effects of the vote last.Did investment decrease leading up to the vote and, if so, will it take long to regain? Despite the country's efforts to rebuild business confidence in the coming months, investors may be wary of returning.
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