http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2014/09/markets-0
Scotland has been debating for quite a while among itself whether to vote to be independent from The UK and how that should be achieved. The article above goes over potential impact that a yes would have over the economy, the national debts of both countries, and also how it would mess with the the socio-political climate.
The reason this is important is that later this month, on September 18, the vote will be put out and it may be possible that a vote to separate will pass. Realistically even if Scotland votes for independence it may take until 2016 at the earliest to have all the details worked out according to David Owen.
I think that independence may not be necessary for Scotland, however I do think that there is a certain benefit to morale for being your own people and not under the rule of a larger entity. The monetary split will be messy but once the details are ironed out I think Scotland will have the potential to grow economically beyond what it could under the influence of the UK, particularly considering how one of the main selling points of the Yes party is the influence of Scottish oil.
I believe that if Scotland did get independence from the UK it would cause more problems than it would solve. Specially Net export for Scotland and a little for UK because their import will go up, while their exports will go down affecting the GDP for both countries negatively.
ReplyDeleteAlthough Scotland is under British rule, they are basically two countries already. There is a complete cultural shift from Scotland to England. Although there would be a negative economic effect, it is impossible to measure the positives of Scotland becoming their own country. For us it is easy to see the economic damage and say that independence is not worth it, but for the Scottish people it is not so easy of a choice. Independence will allow the Scottish culture to truly flourish and allow its people to make their own decisions instead of being hidden under the shadow of England.
ReplyDeleteThis is a very interesting issue, particularly now as polls are showing a shift with more and more in favor of Scotland achieving independence from England. Previously, the idea of separation seemed unlikely. Now that there is a distinct possibility of Scotland voting to dissolve the 307-year union currently in place with England, Great Britain is promising Scotland greater fiscal autonomy. This is a political move, because clearly England has a vested interest in maintaining the union. If there was no benefit, the offer would not have been made. Of course, if Scotland does make the decision to break from England, they will have complete fiscal and political autonomy. And while this could be rewarding, it also comes along with substantially more risk. I think we will all be watching to see what happens in the coming days regarding this issue.
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