Sunday, February 2, 2014

What happens to the Saudis when the Oil runs out?

Saudi Arabia is the biggest producer and exporter of oil in the world. approximately 80 percent of the Saudis GDP depends on its Oil exports. However the country is currently at a moment in it history where it has realized that very soon, the oil is going to run out. Not only are its oil reserves slowly dwindling but the amount of domestic energy demand has also increased which means alot of the oil revenues and indeed the oil itself is going to meet the growing energy demand. An article in the telegraph (famous UK economics magazine) predicts that Saudi Oil may run out as soon as 2030. the big question is, What does this mean for the US economy? The US economy is highly dependent on Oil from Saudi Arabia and that is a fact. approximately 13 percent of its yearly oil imports come from the Arab state and because the US imports two thirds of its oil, this is by no means a small number. And it is not just the US economy, Saudi oil is exported all over the world. What will happen when it runs out? It could be argued that other countries will step up and harvest the oil that is present within their own countries but what will happen initially?Will we see another oil crisis like we saw in 1973? What will the transition be like? what will the political implications be like? Lets not forget that the US has openly been courting Saudi Arabia for many years due to the oil trade and its strategic alliance with the country because of its location in the middle East, If that incentive does not exist anymore, does this mean that the US will overlook Saudi importance. What will happen to the welfare Saudi economy and worse off, what will happen when the greatest oil producing nation in the world goes barren, the implications seem to be very negative, both economically and politically.

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  2. This is definitely a crisis that will affect not just Saudi and USA but the entire global economy. It could also lead to an oil war. The energy policy experts blame OPEC for underprediciting future oil demands by 25% which is about 28 million barrels per day. Venezuela and Canada are the other nations besides the Middle Eastern nations that have high oil reserves. If most of the countries that relied on Saudi Arabia for oil reserves shift their focus to Canada and Venezuela, then there will be a very huge demand for very limited oil. The prices will rise up exorbitantly. This will affect many sectors of production. It will in fact have a very huge impact on every world economy. It will lead to a very high level of inflation. Alternative sources should be found now. An alternative can be the use of ethanol. It is made out of sugarcane. It is eco friendly as it reduces green house gases by 60%-80%. It is also cheaper by 10%. USA has ethanol subsidies where they are on blender's credits meaning the oil refineries receive the subsidies rather than the farmers.

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