Sunday, February 2, 2014

Incomes Are Flat, Reflecting a Slowdown in Job Growth, but Consumer Spending Rises

American consumer spending has increased by 0.4% in December, following an increase of 0.6% in consumer spending in November of 2013.  However, incomes have only increased by 0.2% in November and did not increase in December.  The income growth for 2013 was 2.8%, and due to the fact that there was no increase in income in December, it may be expected that employment growth will decline momentarily.  However, there is good news that current predictions estimate that 2014 will see an increase in employment growth, which will give people more disposable income to spend.  At the same time, the Federal Reserve is planning to decrease its actions with the federal economic stimulus.  This could mean an increase in the domestic interest rates.  Some economic forecasters have voiced concern that an increase in interest rates would not be productive for the US economy.  Although other economic predictions have been positive since Congress has recently stopped the slashing of government spending, there is a new belief that the federal government will not be as counterproductive with economic growth as it was in 2013 (where policies of the federal government decreased economic growth by 1.5%).  Some recent information that has been released by groups such as the University of Michigan show that the "index of consumer sentiment" has decreased to 81.2 from 82.5 between December to January.   Also, the saving rate has decreased to 3.9% after taxes.  Overall, there should be some economic growth in the US, but different factors such as an increase in interest rates or perhaps federal policies such as cutting government spending could decrease some of the potential for economic growth in 2014 for the US economy.

2 comments:

  1. It could be that there was an increase in consumer spending during the months of November and December as it is a festive season. There are massive sales for Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year. As the prices of goods go down, consumers buy more with the mentality that they are saving but in reality they spend more during sale periods than on any other day. People go on vacations too during the festive season. It is a time for self indulgence.

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  2. I agree above, and say that the above numbers can be explained completely by seasonality. Sales for companies go up, and consumer spending is highest during the holidays, this could be the sole reason for the numbers above. I do not think the US economy will be hurt because of an "increase in interest rates". Despite low interest rates in the past, we see consumers hoarding their money, and their spending is very slowly coming back. The economy will grow in 2014 simply because we are out of the downside of the business cycle.

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