With winter months coming close, we have already seen the predicted surge in coronavirus cases. Countries in Europe are going back in to lockdown, and their economies will struggle once again. Positive economic performances in the third squared saw the US GDP rise by 7.4%, and European output grew 12.7%. However, the recent surge in cases has already drove down the price of oil to a 5 month low. Mobility data from Google has shown that America's recovery has come to a halt as cases have risen. Europe reached an economic peak in September, and has been on a decrease since. With countries such as France and Germany going in to lockdown, economists are unsure of the consequences. Luckily, it is assumed that new lockdowns will be less damaging as previous ones due to more knowledge on the virus. Manufacturing, and construction firms will stay open this time around with safety precautions.
Will new lockdowns have as big of an economic impact as previous ones?https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/11/07/how-economically-damaging-will-new-lockdowns-be
With the news from Governor DeWine's press conference, even if the country does not shut down again, I believe Ohio is on the path to another shutdown. Another shutdown will likely hurt the economy again but less than it did the first time round. Now, companies have many practices in place for online work and would be able to transition much more smoothly than they did the first time. However, many businesses, like entertainment and restaurants, would remain heavily effected due to the nature of their business.
ReplyDeleteI think that companies have been able to now go back to full output pretty much with employees fully remote. Hopefully that will remain if we go in to lockdown.
DeleteI personally don't think this surge was the predicted surge. The original prediction of case increases was going to be related to the colder months and flu season. I personally think people are just not following guidelines in order to stop the spread. I do think this will bring another lockdown at the rate cases are increasing again, at least in Ohio. A shutdown will again affect the same businesses again like restaurants, movie theaters, etc. But other businesses have adapted to the online environment by building better platforms, so they won’t be affected as greatly as before.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Nicole that this rise in cases isn't truly "the second wave." It has been continually rising since things started reopening in the summer. It is truly a lack of caution. I do also believe that businesses do need to stay open, however. I feel that this shutdown can be the last straw for so many smaller businesses, even though some have adapted to online transactions.
ReplyDeleteif we do have a new lock down i don't believe that it will be as hash on business as it was before because many business that were wrecked by the lockdowns have adapted enough to survive with a new shutdown.
ReplyDeleteBecause these lockdowns will come as less of a surprise, I don't think we will see as severe of effects. Supply chains will not come to a halt as they did in the spring. Of course, saying that an economic downturn isn't as bad as the spring isn't much of a consolation. However, I think this set of lockdowns is more predictable; people are simply getting more egregiously defiant of COVID-19 safety measures, and businesses are likely expecting more lockdowns. Maybe that means they will be more prepared for them.
ReplyDeleteI agree with others that the shock of these lockdowns will be smaller because the economy is already expecting it, and we are more prepared to deal with it. However, I do think especially small business and restaurant and travel industries will suffer a great deal.
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