U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls in September

     The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 125.1 this month from 134.2 in August. Originally, economists had predicted the CCI to be 133.5 this month, so this was an unexpected drop. From an optimistic standpoint, 125.1 is still a very good CCI. However, from a slightly more pessimistic standpoint, that's a drop of 6.8% in a single month. This drop is assumed to come from consumer fears over the ongoing trade war with China. The economic growth the U.S. has seen since the 2008 Recession has mostly been driven by consumption. As consumer confidence takes a hit, we may see the economy continue to slow down as it has been for the past few months. While even more tariffs on Chinese goods have been announced, consumer confidence may begin to fall even further as consumers grow more and more wary. Perhaps even more concerning is the Conference Board survey's labor market differential, which is data on respondent's views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get. This fell to 33.2 this month from 38.3 in July. This data is often closely correlated to the unemployment rate. Several other employment measures showed that consumers are much less confident in the labor market than they were in previous months.
     The long-running trade war with China is starting to weigh heavily on the minds of American consumers. Consumer confidence is fragile and the endless tariffs are starting to take their effect on the level of confidence. While President Trump says that the U.S. will not accept a bad deal for the American people, it appears as though the continued conflict is having more of an adverse impact than previously assumed.



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-consumer-confidence-falls-in-september-trade-fears-dominate-idUSKBN1W9297