What does an ideal American job market look like in 2016?
According to this article it would look something like this: The U.S. would
steadily add jobs, wages would gradually rise, and the labor force would
increase. Surprisingly, this happens to be the reality revealed in the March
job numbers. Of course, there are still problems in the economy. Measures of
economic output have been quite weak in comparison to measures of the job
market. In the longer term, incomes for working-class Americans have not seen
great growth over the last couple of decades. While these problems still exist,
the damage left by the recession eight years ago for the labor market is almost
fully healed. In fact, over the last four months, the size of the United States
labor force has risen by 1.92 million, the strongest since the boom time of
early 2000. In addition, the unemployment rate has been incredibly stable
lately, stagnating between 4.9 and 5.1 percent for eight consecutive months.
The gradual pace of growth in average hourly earnings means the Federal Reserve
will feel comfortable sticking with a cautious, slow path of raising interest
rates, rather than get any ideas that a huge outbreak of inflation is on the
way. There are still many problems that the economy must face, but the most
recent numbers on the labor market show that the economy is heading in the
right direction.
This is really encouraging! I do not think there will be an instant rise in the incomes of working-class Americans, but it will take time for the growth to reach those households. However, that perspective must be balanced with a concern about the possibility that a structural flaw may be barring the growth from reaching those incomes.
ReplyDeleteI also think this is encouraging. It seems like it was just a week ago that the new consensus was that we were headed into our next recession, however things seem to be stabilizing at very healthy levels which is encouraging. Something that many have written blogs about has to do with the proposed $15 minimum wage, so considering if this were put into effect I believe we could see slight jump in the unemployment rate.
ReplyDeleteIt seems that all signs are pointing to the economy being healthy. With the labor force growing and income relatively higher than in 2008, the American economy is moving beyond the recession.
ReplyDeleteThe economy does this a lot where it goes through some ups and downs, but eventually it corrects itself to find a point to stabilize. Chris makes a good point that the rise in minimum wage may pose some threat to the unemployment rate that may spike up if the new minimum wage went into effect.
ReplyDeleteI have been reading a lot how the U.S. economy is looking good with many jobs being created recently. This is interesting because many people were worried for a while with the oil market hurting and the stock market taking a downturn. It will be interesting to see how the economy will be by the end of this year with the instability of the global economy.
ReplyDeleteIt is nice to finally hear something positive. It seems like the U.S is responding well to the drop in oil prices and the global economy. It will be interesting to see if this article still stands correct at the end of 2016.
ReplyDeleteIt is great to see how the labor force is doing well. It is clear that the increasing minimum wages that have arisen in some states throughout the country will effect the unemployment rate. I wonder if the government will also help provide tax incentives to employers that will prevent layoffs so these wage hikes will occur without increasing the unemployment rate.
ReplyDelete