Monday, March 31, 2014

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304773104579265520447488200

When we talk about growth in developing nations one of the main factors that determines their steady state is population growth. New evidence suggests that slumping fertility rates in developing countries are causing labor worries. Countries like Thailand have fallen from fertility rates of 7 in the 1970's to 1.6 children per women currently. Many other countries such as Brazil, Mexico, India and Japan are facing this same problem. It's creating an aging population and a shrinking labor force.

As the article cites, in some cases this can be an opportunity and a threat. This can ease the stresses on the environment and natural resources that are being taxed by increasing global population. On the other hand, decreases in fertility rates like this are often to blame for causing the Great Depression and Japan's stagnant economic condition over the last several decades.

The article also cites that fertility rates are only predicted to fall going into the future. Many people are moving to megacities where the prices of housing and living are increasing so the cost of having large families is increasing.

1 comment:

  1. One thing that really stands out in this article was their prediction of future global populations, "If the trend continues, the United Nations projects—in its "low-growth" forecast—that the global population will hit 8.3 billion in 2050 before declining to less than the current level of 7.2 billion by 2100." While most demographers are predicting population growths o sky rocket to 10 billion by 2100, this article states that populations may actually decrease. While a decreasing population brings lots of economic uncertainty - the fact of the matter is that exponential growth cannot go on forever... the world is only so big.

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