Friday, February 5, 2010
Uncertainity Reigns
I like this article because it is an economist talking about the difficult and largely arbitrary act of forecasting the future of the economy. I am not trying to insult all economic scholarship in my sentiments, just hoping that in the future economists (and more importantly, the politicians that oftentimes formulate economic policy) can have a little more humility about what they actually know is happening or going to happen.
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While I agree that they could have been a bit more conservative in their predictions (ok way more conservative), as the article mentions, no one can know what will happen in the next decade. That makes it, to me, more of an art than a science. While many things can be seen and accounted for (the expiration of the peace dividend for example) others are left completely to chance.
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