Early GDP tracking is showing that there might be negative GDP growth, according to the Atlanta Fed. Currently, projections are showing a shrinkage of 1.5%, whereas before the most recent forecast, expectations sat at about 2.3%. According to the article, this is due to less exports and less consumer spending during January. In early February, the same statistic was showing growth up to 3.9%; however, there is much volatility in early quarter numbers with GDP now tracking capabilities. Net Exports are tracked to have fallen from -0.4% to -3.7%. Using this data in conjunction with consumer confidence reports does not bode well for the future, but nothing is absolutely set in stone as of right now. Also, another historically reliable indicator of a recession-- 10 year Treasury Yield falling below the 3 month yield, has occurred. There is now anticipation that interest rates could be cut due to these figures.
Link:
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/28/the-first-quarter-is-on-track-for-negative-gdp-growth-atlanta-fed-indicator-says-.html
No comments:
Post a Comment