Trumps tariff plan on the movie industry

President Trump’s plan to implement a 100% tariff on foreign made movies might seem like it’s helping Hollywood, but it could actually mess with the economy and global film industry. The idea is to bring more production back to the U.S., but in reality, it risks damaging long-standing international partnerships and could raise costs for both studios and moviegoers. Smaller studios that rely on foreign collaboration might take a big hit and viewers could end up with fewer movie choices. There’s also the chance that other countries could hit back with their own tariffs, which would make things even worse. Even people in the industry are saying this move could do more harm than good in the long run.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/05/media/movie-tariffs-trump-hollywood 

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/06/business/trump-movie-tariff-threat-nightcap?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc 

Wobbling economy will push the Fed to cut interest rates later this year, CNBC survey finds

     A CNBC survey sent out to 31 fund managers, analysts, and economists, finds that there is still an expectation among experts that interest rates will get cut before the end of the year. Something interesting to note is that from the March to the April survey, there was a 21% jump (44% to 65%) in those who believe that an interest rate cut is happening. This prediction seems to come from the fact that stagflation is a revenant continuously coming back to haunt the Federal Chair Jerome Powell. It seems that if it comes down to choosing between continued inflation and unemployment rates, experts think that the Fed will favor the unemployment rates. Another interesting wrinkle in this dilemma is that some are of the opinion that inflation could become unanchored after a rate cut. Richard Bernstein, of Richard Bernstein Advisors, stated that cutting rates would mean the Fed is “giving up on the 2% inflation target, perhaps permanently.” Finally, lasting effects of the current administration's actions are certainly feared, as 83% of respondents believe that the U.S.'s brand has been damaged. Something like that will not be the easiest to fix on an international stage.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/06/wobbling-economy-will-push-the-fed-to-cut-interest-rates-later-this-year-cnbc-survey-finds.html

April US payrolls growth slows before full tariff impact felt

This article breaks down how job growth in April had slowed down. There were 177,000 less jobs added than in March but it was still better than expected. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.2%, so the job market’s holding steady for now. But the real concern is what’s supposed to be coming next. With Trump’s proposed tariffs still in place a lot of businesses are going to be forced to have to less hiring and less investment across the board. Right now though things don’t look too bad but you can definitely feel the uncertainty. The Fed isn’t changing interest rates yet, but if inflation or the job market shifts, that could change too. It feels like we’re in this calm before the storm, and how the tariff situation plays out could really tip the balance either way. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/view-april-us-payrolls-growth-slows-before-full-tariff-impact-felt-2025-05-02/

GDP Pulls Back 1st time in 3 years

 The US economy hit a surprising snag at the start of 2025, contracting for the first time in three years with a GDP decline of 0.3% in the first quarter. This drop was unexpected, especially since economists had predicted a slight decrease of only 0.2%. A significant contributor to this downturn was a staggering 41.3% surge in imports, as businesses rushed to stock up before anticipated tariffs from the Trump administration kicked in. While this abrupt shift in trade dynamics weighed heavily on GDP, some positive signs emerged in consumer demand, with domestic sales growing at a steady 3% and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rising by 3.5%.

Despite the contraction, experts like Ryan Sweet from Oxford Economics remind us that this doesn’t necessarily signal a recession. Instead, it reflects the complexities of a shifting economic landscape. The increased tariffs and rising prices could pose challenges in the coming months, but the resilience of consumer spending offers a glimmer of hope. Investors reacted to the news with some concern, as stock markets dipped in response to the weaker economic indicators. As we navigate the rest of 2025, keeping an eye on these developments will be crucial for understanding how the economy adapts to these pressures

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economy-contracts-at-03-rate-in-q1-first-gdp-pullback-in-3-years-123544859.html

Foreign Aid or Strategic Investment?

Today, something pretty major happened on the global stage, Ukraine signed a new agreement with the U.S. that’s going to shape the future of both countries for the next decade. It’s being called the United States–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund.

Here’s the basic idea: in exchange for continued U.S. support in Ukraine’s war with Russia, the U.S. now gets access to a long list of rare and valuable materials from Ukraine, including titanium, lithium, uranium, and more. These are crucial for everything from aircraft to electric vehicles to nuclear power. The deal comes as part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to frame future U.S. foreign policy around economic return rather than just ideological alignment.

Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko flew to D.C. to finalize the agreement, which both countries are saying reflects an equal partnership. Both will contribute financially, and Ukraine still decides where and how the minerals are extracted. Unlike earlier drafts, this version also doesn’t conflict with Ukraine’s path to EU membership, something that's really important for Kyiv’s long-term vision.

But while this might sound like a win-win, there are a lot of complicated questions underneath the surface. For example:

• Is it fair to tie military aid and wartime support to resource access?

• Can a country in the middle of war really negotiate as an equal partner?

• Is this a smart strategy for rebuilding Ukraine, or a new kind of 21st-century imperialism?

The Trump administration is calling it a sign of “long-term peace and prosperity,” but critics are already pointing out how transactional it feels. It’s a classic example of power politics helping Ukraine, sure, but with something very tangible expected in return.

This raises big questions about how we as a country define aid versus investment, and whether national interest should always come first in foreign policy. I wonder what this means for the future of energy, war recovery, and diplomacy.

Link: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ukraine-signs-deal-give-us-access-rare-minerals

How AI Could Shape Our Economy — For Better or Worse

Artificial intelligence (AI) is moving fast, and while it’s easy to get swept up in the excitement, experts say we should approach it with both hope and caution. If guided well, AI has the power to boost productivity, narrow income gaps, and give small businesses a leg up. But without the right policies in place, it could deepen inequality, slow economic progress, and put even more power in the hands of giant tech companies.

Productivity Growth

AI has the potential to transform how we work, helping people focus on creative and meaningful tasks instead of routine ones. Done right, it could spark new discoveries in fields like medicine and science. But if companies fail to use it well—or if legal and regulatory roadblocks slow things down—we might end up with lots of cool gadgets but little real economic progress.

Income Inequality

AI could go either way here. On one hand, it might replace many middle- and high-skill jobs, leaving workers stuck in low-paying service roles. On the other, it could help less-experienced workers perform better and close wage gaps, as seen in recent studies where AI tools boosted productivity and job satisfaction for customer service reps.

Industrial Concentration

Right now, only the biggest companies can afford to develop cutting-edge AI, raising concerns about market dominance. But the rise of open-source AI could change that, giving smaller firms access to powerful tools and helping spread innovation more widely.

The key message is that none of these outcomes are set in stone. What happens next depends on the choices we make today. Policymakers, businesses, and everyday people all have a role to play in making sure AI benefits as many people as possible. Instead of just asking whether we should speed up or slow down AI, we should be asking: how can we shape it to serve the public good?

With smart policies and forward-thinking leadership, AI can help build a future of both progress and fairness. But if left to its own devices, it may take us down a much rougher road.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/Macroeconomics-of-artificial-intelligence-Brynjolfsson-Unger

Trade War Drops Consumer Confidence to a New Low

Recent economic uncertainty, fueled by escalating trade tensions, has sent consumer confidence tumbling to lows not seen since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. As tariffs and retaliatory measures churn global markets, households are getting hit the hardest, as uncertainty hangs over spending and investment decisions.

Its knock-on impacts are clear: higher prices on commodities, disruption to supply chains, and fear of labor market volatility have made consumers wary. Unlike the pandemic-led downturn that was driven by health crises and lockdowns, this one is policy-led, driven by trade hostilities. The shift has triggered debates around the length of economic pressure and whether policymakers possess sufficient levers to stabilize markets prior to further decline in sentiments.

In spite of all of these headwinds, there continue to be a few sectors that are resilient, due to domestic demand, which is a silver lining. But without a clear trade-off, consumer confidence may keep eroding, placing broader economic recovery in the balance. At this time, both businesses and households are preparing for a bumpy ride. As we know from class, these are clear-cut signs of a potential recession. When consumers cut back on costs, it causes a ripple effect, which causes firms to do the same.

 Domestic firms, less exposed to imports, are experiencing firm demand, with some turning to domestic suppliers in a bid to avoid tariffs. Nonetheless, such advances might not prove sufficient to offset the wider issue. In the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs or policy shifts to dial back trade tensions, consumer sentiment could deteriorate further, endangering a nascent upturn. For the time being, households and businesses are tightening their belts.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/as-trade-war-stokes-anxiety-consumer-confidence-plummets-to-covid-era-lows

GOP’s Student Loan Overhaul: A Step Toward Reform or a Step Back for Borrowers?

GOP’s Student Loan Overhaul: A Step Toward Reform or a Step Back for Borrowers?

On April 29, 2025, House Republicans unveiled a sweeping student loan reform proposal aimed at simplifying repayment options, imposing new borrowing caps, and tightening eligibility for financial aid—all set to take effect by July 1, 2026. The legislation represents a bold effort to address the nation’s $1.74 trillion student debt crisis, but it raises critical questions about access to higher education, affordability, and long-term impact.

Key Takeaways:

1. Simplified Repayment Plans:
   The bill consolidates the current four income-driven repayment plans into just two: a standard fixed repayment plan and a Repayment Assistance Plan, which offers loan forgiveness after 30 years of consistent payments. While this simplification might reduce borrower confusion, it eliminates important deferment protections, like for unemployment and economic hardship, potentially leaving borrowers vulnerable during financial downturns.
2. Capping Borrowing Limits:
   Undergraduates would be capped at $50,000 in federal loans, while graduate students could borrow up to $100,000. While this aims to limit total student debt, it could restrict access to higher education for students pursuing degrees in fields with high tuition costs, such as medicine or law.
3. Changes to Pell Grant Eligibility:
   The proposal expands Pell Grant eligibility to short-term training programs and raises the threshold for full eligibility to 30 credit hours per semester. However, it also tightens restrictions, penalizing part-time students who do not meet the 15-credit hour requirement, potentially reducing their awards by up to $1,479. This could leave some students, especially those working or managing family responsibilities, without the full support they need.
4. Increased Accountability for Colleges:
   The bill holds colleges financially accountable for students who default on their loans, which could encourage institutions to improve graduation rates and post-graduation outcomes. However, the proposal also rolls back consumer protection rules like the gainful-employment and 90/10 rules, potentially allowing for-profit institutions to operate with less oversight and greater risk to borrowers.

What Does This Mean for the Future?

While the GOP’s proposal aims to reduce the federal budget impact and simplify loan repayment, it could create significant barriers for some students. The cap on borrowing could particularly affect students in high-cost fields, and the reduction in Pell Grant awards for part-time students may discourage non-traditional learners from pursuing higher education. Furthermore, removing deferments could lead to additional financial strain during tough economic times.

Moving forward, policymakers should prioritize understanding how these changes will affect low-income and non-traditional students. The reform’s goal of reducing debt should be balanced with maintaining access to education for all, particularly vulnerable groups. Colleges must also be held accountable—not just financially, but in terms of ensuring their programs lead to meaningful employment outcomes.

In Conclusion:

While the GOP’s student loan overhaul seeks to simplify the system and reduce government spending, it risks doing so at the expense of students who may face higher financial barriers. The future of this proposal depends on whether the system can be adjusted to ensure equitable access, protection for borrowers, and meaningful educational outcomes.

Link to Article

Chinese Manufacturing Declines in April

China’s manufacturing activity has reached a two-year low, in April, as trade with the US has been impacted with the trade war between the two companies. Data shows that manufacturing activity has fallen into contractionary territory. Economists say that the tariffs have severely disrupted trade flows between the US and China. This comes as there has been little evidence of any progress being made in terms of the two countries agreeing on a trade deal. Experts believe that the Chinese government will have to increase its fiscal spending by at least 2 trillion yuan to counter the loss in GDP from the tariffs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/chinas-factory-activity-drops-to-a-near-two-year-low-in-april-as-trade-tariffs-bite.html

Shaky Markets and Shifting Money: How U.S. Tariffs Ripple Through the Global Economy

 The stock market’s rough start under President Trump’s second term—down 7.27% on the S&P 500 in just 100 days—shows how fast policy changes can shake the global economy.

The main reason: tariffs. The new trade policies, especially the “Liberation Day” and “reciprocal” tariffs, have made investors uncertain about the future. These kinds of policies raise costs for businesses and disrupt trade, which can slow down economic growth and increase inflation. In terms of what we’ve learned, this is like a leftward shift in the short-run aggregate supply curve.

At the same time, investors are moving their money into safer options like gold, which has gone up over 25% this year. The U.S. dollar has dropped more than 8%, and international markets like Germany and Hong Kong are seeing more investment. This shows how quickly money can move across borders when confidence in the U.S. drops.

Overall, this situation connects directly to what we’ve been studying: how trade policy affects growth, how investor expectations matter, and how economic shocks in one country can spread around the world. It is a real example of the international business cycle in action.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/29/investing/us-stock-market/index.html?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc

Canada will ‘never’ yield to Trump’s threats

Mark Carney won the Canadian election in 2025. His resistance to U.S. President Donald Trump's trade threats and hostile actions toward Canada was a major factor in his victory. Many Canadians became more patriotic and supportive of Carney's plans as a result. 

The economy of Canada may be significantly impacted by this election. It is anticipated that Carney will oppose US tariffs and seek to forge closer trade ties with other nations.  Since he used to run Canada’s central bank, he’ll probably focus on keeping the economy stable and helping Canadian industries that are being hurt by the U.S. trade policies.

Big brands are officially worried about American shoppers

    As US consumers become more uncertain, producers are starting to take notice and plan. Big companies such as PepsiCo, Kimberly-Clark, and P&G are taking action during the uncertain financial times and preparing for a decrease in sales. Not only are the companies concerned with consumer confidence, but they are also feeling the impact of the recent tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, which have only raised production prices. With these factors, production will likely slow down, causing a shift in supply of goods, as well as consumers being more cautious with their spending habits will decrease demand. Some of the first markets to see this change in consumer spending are restaurants. Restaurants such as Chipotle are seeing a decline in demand due to consumers being less willing to spend on takeout.

    Although companies are slowing down future production, we can also hopefully expect a slow recovery as things settle down in the years to come. Consumer confidence will likely continue to decrease as tariff negotiations continue, but eventually will find footing again when the tariffs are either retracted or constant, so the markets stabilize.

https://www.npr.org/2025/04/25/nx-s1-5375820/big-brands-tariffs-us-spending-consumers

Continued job growth could help ward off a recession

 CNBC's Jim Cramer thinks that there could be too much pessimism on Wall Street about a recession or that we are currently in a recession. He thinks that tariffs will hurt the U.S., causing higher prices, and there may also be shortages in certain products. With this statement he also said, "But recessions revolve around employment, and there are still so many more jobs than we have people to fill them". He thinks that companies aren't laying off employees because they not be able to get workers back when economic circumstances improve. It is difficult to derail an economy that is creating jobs still. He also mentioned that tariffs are a government mandated supply shock but adding that supply shocks don't always lead to recessions. Customers may begin to switch to more budget friendly alternatives, moving to companies like Costco and Walmart. This is an interesting take from Jim Cramer and differentiating from most of Wall Street. It will be interesting to see if this Friday's labor report will prove his theory truthful. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/28/continued-job-growth-could-help-ward-off-a-recession-jim-cramer-says.html

Empty shelves, trucking layoffs lead to a summer recession in Apollo’s shocking trade fight timeline

A US recession is looming in the near future due to heightened tensions with China, according to the analysis of Torsten Sløk, the chief economist with Apollo Global Management. There has also been a sharp decline in container shipments coming from China in to US ports after President Trump placed a 145% tariff on Chinese imports. Economists predict this will result in store shelves becoming empty and inflation rates surging for heavily imported goods from China, including toys, apparel, furniture, and more.

It is also expected that US labor workers, particularly in retail, logistics, and transportation, will face the ripple effect of the new tariffs. The decrease in imports has led to lower demands for freight services, meaning potential job losses. Smaller retail businesses such as independent clothing and toy stores are most susceptible due to their limited capacity to absorb added costs.

Economists are comparing this current situation with the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, shown by the similar supply chain disruptions and consumer shortages. Additionally, if current trade policies continue, Sløk estimates a 90% probability of a U.S. recession in 2025. This combination of reduced imports, rising inflation, and potential job losses paints a gloomy outlook for the future.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/28/empty-shelves-trucking-layoffs-lead-to-recession-in-apollos-trade-war-timeline.html

Recession Becoming More Likely

Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman warned that President Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies are making a U.S. recession seem likely. Speaking on a Goldman Sachs podcast, Krugman emphasized that it’s not the existence of tariffs themselves but the extreme uncertainty around them imposing, pausing, and changing them rapidly that is depressing business investment and consumer confidence. Markets have already seen significant shifting, with Wall Street experiencing its worst days since 2020 before briefly rebounding after Trump paused some tariffs.

Krugman’s concerns are echoed by other financial leaders like Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates and economist Torsten Slok, who both warned that continued tariff volatility could easily push the country into a recession or worse. Dalio even compared the current environment to the 1930s, noting the dangers of mishandled trade wars and growing global tensions, particularly with China. Despite these warnings, Trump and his allies have defended the tariffs as part of a broader strategy to strengthen American manufacturing and encourage economic self reliance.

For now, Trump has issued a 90-day pause on a range of retaliatory tariffs, and negotiations with multiple countries are ongoing. However, tariffs on China remain, and the overall business climate remains shaky. Krugman noted that while he doesn’t expect a severe recession immediately, a sharp drop in consumer spending could quickly turn the situation worse, underlining the fragile state of the economy as the uncertainty continues.

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https://www.newsweek.com/us-recession-seems-likely-nobel-winning-economist-says-2064347 

IMF: Tariffs by the U.S. put Global Growth, Stability at Risk

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has dramatically reduced its global growth projection for 2025 to 2.8%, warning that President Trump's tough tariff policy is tightening up economies around the world. According to the IMF, the U.S. will only grow 1.8% this year—a whole point less than in 2024—while inflation will reach 5% by September.

The administration's blanket 10% tariff on all imports, with additional higher rates on specific countries, is raising consumer prices, distorting supply chains, and creating uncertainty that discourages investment. Firms are unwilling to invest or hire, and global trade flows are weakening.

IMF officials have called on the U.S. to complete trade deals quickly to soothe tensions and revive economic confidence. Absent relief, the tariffs risk triggering protracted stagnation in key world markets and hurting recovery momentum worldwide.

Increased Prices, Decreased Spending

• Tariffs raise import costs, fueling inflation. When prices are higher, consumers spend less, reducing demand and slowing GDP growth.

Business Uncertainty

• Uncertain trade policy discourages investment and hiring. Companies delay expansion, reducing productivity and hiring growth.

Export Burdens

• Retaliation against U.S. exports, especially manufacturing and agriculture, shrinks crucial economic segments.

Interest Rates and Inflation

• Accelerating inflation may lead the Fed to keep interest rates high, increasing borrowing costs and further downgrading growth.

Global Ripple Effects

• When America slows, the rest of the world slows along with it. Damage to supply chains, foreign markets, and investor confidence increases the possibility of recession everywhere.

Link

Donald Trump Hopes to Become a One-Man Deregulator

            In his second term, President Donald Trump is pushing for deregulation. aiming to take apart federal regulations quickly. This effort has gained support from both Trump loyalists and traditional conservatives. They are brought together by a desire to reduce the administrative state's power. However, Trump's approach involves bypassing established conditions and procedures to speed up the dismantling of regulations, which raises concerns about the potential diminishment of checks and balances.

To achieve his goals of deregulation, Trump is using executive authority / power and appointing officials who align with his vision of less government intervention. This strategy includes replacing institution leaders with individuals who share the same goals and visions as Trump. While this approach may speed up policy changes, it also risks interfering with the stability and predictability that regulations put in place. Despite the efforts, Trump's deregulation push faces significant resistance, making this approach more difficult. Legal obstacles are likely due to the fact that the administration's methods and goals violate procedural requirements and mandates.

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2025/04/24/donald-trump-hopes-to-become-a-one-man-deregulator

IMF Cuts US Economic Growth Forecast Over Trade Tensions, Policy Uncertainty

    Earlier today (April 22, 2025), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its growth outlook for the U.S. and several other countries, citing rising trade tensions and weakening global demand. Back in January, the IMF expected the U.S. economy to grow 2.7% this year, but that number has now been cut sharply to 1.8%. The 2026 forecast was also trimmed, down to 1.7% from 2.1%. According to the IMF, this downgrade is largely due to “greater policy uncertainty, trade tensions, and softer demand momentum.
    Since the start of the year, the U.S. has introduced a wave of new tariffs, with other countries responding. The resulting trade barriers are now at levels not seen in a century, surpassing even the infamous 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which many economists believe deepened the Great Depression. These trade disruptions are sending shockwaves through the economy, dampening investor confidence and casting doubt on future growth.
    The IMF also scaled back its global outlook. It now expects worldwide growth to hit 2.8% in 2025 and 3% in 2026, both lower than its January forecast of 3.3%. In Europe, growth is expected to slow to 0.8%, while emerging markets are projected to expand by just 3.7% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026. Some of the steepest downgrades were seen in countries most impacted by tariffs. China, for example, saw its growth forecast cut to 4% for both years, a notable drop from earlier projections.

    IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters that while a U.S. recession isn’t in the base case, the risk is climbing. The IMF now sees about a 37% chance of a downturn, up from 25% earlier this year. Truth be told, no one is sure of the future.

IMF Cuts US Economic Growth Forecast Over Trade Tensions, Policy Uncertainty

IMF Warns of Global Slowdown as Trump Tariffs Trigger Economic Shock

On April 22, 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that President Trump's newly imposed tariffs have become a major negative shock to the global economy. In response to rising trade tensions, the IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, citing reduced investment, weakened trade, and increased inflation across several major economies.

Tariffs Fuel Economic Instability

The U.S. is expected to see its GDP growth fall to 1.8%, down from the earlier projection of 2.7%, with inflation now forecasted at 3%. The IMF attributes nearly half of this slowdown to the economic impact of new tariffs, which have disrupted supply chains and raised costs for businesses and consumers. Other major economies are also feeling the effects. The UK's growth projection was reduced to 1.1%, the lowest in the G7, while China's is forecasted at 4%, below its target. Mexico is expected to enter a mild recession. The global consequences of U.S. trade policy are raising fears of long-term economic fragmentation.

Investor Confidence Wavers

As inflation rises and growth slows, investor confidence has taken a hit. The IMF noted increased volatility and a sharp repricing of risks in global markets, reflecting broader concerns about financial stability. Industries dependent on international trade and infrastructure, particularly manufacturing and energy, may face the harshest headwinds.

Looking Ahead: Uncertainty or Cooperation?

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has traveled to Washington to seek exemptions and promote more open trade dialogue. The IMF urges global leaders to work toward stability and cooperation, warning that failure could deepen the slowdown and prolong financial strain. The path forward remains unclear. With tariffs reshaping trade relationships and pressuring growth, policymakers' next moves will be critical in determining whether this movement becomes a temporary disruption or the start of a broader downturn.

Article: IMF Warns of 'major negative shock' from Trump's tariffs By Heather Stewart

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/22/imf-major-negative-shock-trump-tariffs-uk

China's Rare-Earth Advantage: A Strategic Weapon Against the U.S.

China's Rare-Earth Advantage: A Strategic Weapon Against the U.S.

In the heightening economic battle between China and the United States, Beijing has deployed one of its wild cards: rare earth elements.

On April 4th, in response to U.S. tariffs, China restricted exports of seven rare earth elements to the United States. These metals, dysprosium and terbium, are two examples, are the backbone of everything from wind turbines, electric cars, to really any sophisticated mechanical systems. It is not a complete ban, but the fact that China is prepared to use its dominance as leverage in a market where it already has a grip not only on mining, but 98% of the world's processing, is a stark warning. With limited viable alternatives and few global supply chains, the U.S. is left vulnerable.

The implications could be huge. Prices are already climbing, and though there are some inventories remaining, they'll be used up in a matter of months. The civilian end of things like green energy and electric cars would get squeezed first, followed by defense. As the U.S. scrambles to fund mines in California, Brazil, and South Africa, and develop a rare-earth processing facility in Texas, it could take years to build a supply chain to rival China's. History suggests China will use this leverage selectively, but if push comes to shove, then who knows what could come next…

The Economist. (2025, April 10). China has a weapon that could hurt America: rare-earth exports. The Economist. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/04/10/china-has-a-weapon-that-could-hurt-america-rare-earth-exports

The Current State of the US Housing Market

In 2025, the U.S. housing market remains deeply unaffordable despite cooling inflation and steady wage growth. The median home price now exceeds $390,000, and mortgage rates hovering near 7% have drastically reduced buyers’ purchasing power. A $400,000 home now costs over $2,600 per month, up nearly $1,000 compared to 2020 when rates were under 3%. Limited housing supply continues to drive up prices, as many current homeowners are reluctant to sell due to low locked-in rates, and new construction is constrained by labor shortages, zoning laws, and high material costs. Renters aren’t catching a break either; national rents are up about 6% year-over-year, with some cities seeing double-digit spikes. As a result, more Americans are spending well over 30% of their income on housing. With the U.S. short nearly 3.7 million homes, experts don’t expect a housing crash, instead, they predict ongoing affordability challenges unless major policy changes increase supply and stabilize interest rates. For millions, the dream of homeownership remains just that, a dream.

Sources

https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-accelerated-4-2-in-february?

https://fortune.com/article/current-mortgage-rates-04-17-2025/?

https://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20241126-us-economy-remains-resilient-with-strong-q3-growth?

CBP says latest tariffs have generated $500 million, well below Trump’s estimate

 These tariffs that trump instituted were meant to create a lot more revenue for the United States and improve the quality of business that happens inside the states. Although this report shows only 500 million was generated which as mentioned is not close to the estimates made by President Trump. He has also claimed that we have made 2 billion per day from the tariffs but that is not reported any where. From the US Customs and Border Protection, they report that on average 250 million a day is being collected from the tariffs, even with a glitch that occurred in their system. 

    The tariffs implemented that Trump advocated for and was sure there would be positive impacts for the country has for the most part only caused pain for everyday Americans. This gain of a little over 500 million was not worth the huge drop in markets that caused damage to many American's investments. The pause only indicates further uncertainty in the administration of what these tariffs will cause. Although it will be difficult for the officials to admit they were over the top dangerous for the economy and will cause more harm than good.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/us-customs-tariffs-revenue-generated-since-april-5.html

Economy Fed Governor Waller sees tariff inflation as ‘transitory’ in ‘tush push’ comparison

 Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller believes the inflation caused by President Trump's tariffs will be short-lived, calling it "transitory." He explained that while larger tariffs could push inflation to 4-5%, it will eventually ease as the economy slows and unemployment rises. Smaller tariffs would have a smaller, 3% impact. Despite the surprise of past inflation, Waller is confident this time the effects will be temporary. He also mentioned that the Fed may lower interest rates, depending on how things play out, and emphasized the need for flexibility in handling the unpredictable economic effects of the tariffs

link-  https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/14/fed-governor-waller-sees-tariff-inflation-as-transitory-in-tush-push-comparison.html

CEO Confidence Weakening: Is a Recession Looming?

A recent survey conducted by Chief Executive revealed that over 60% of CEOs now anticipate a recession or economic downturn within the next six months. This number is up from 48% in march and comes in response to heightened market volatility and uncertainty driven by President Donald Trump's constantly changing tariff policies. Of the more than 300 CEOs surveyed, three-fourths stated that tariffs would negatively affect their businesses in 2025, and around two-thirds opposed the new levies altogether. Key metrics, including CEO sentiment on current business conditions, also dropped significantly to lows last seen around early COVID. With many CEOs forecasting double-digit cost increases and fewer than 40% expecting profit growth this year, corporate America is bracing for economic turbulence. 

This growing concern among top executives is a warning signal for the broader economy. When the leaders of major corporations start forecasting profit drops and anticipate rising costs, it suggest that consumers, workers, and investors should prepare for potential uncertainty. Tariffs in particular are creating an environment where long-term planning is becoming difficult, therefore, slowing investment and hiring decisions. If sentiment continues to slide, the economy may begin to slide as the economy fears the possibility of  a recession.

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/14/more-than-60percent-of-ceos-expect-a-recession-in-the-next-6-months-survey-says.html

American shoppers hit with tariff surcharge on receipts and feeling the impact of trade war

  On their receipts, many American shoppers are already noticing new taxes that are referred to as "tariff surcharges." Businesses are attempting to offset the high import duties, specifically the 145% charge on Chinese goods, which is why this is taking place. While some businesses charge a percentage of purchases, others are imposing straight up flat fees. The CEO of Amazon also stated that in order to cover these additional charges, third party vendors will now probably be increasing their prices. Products ranging from cars parts even down to clothes are being severely impacted by this. In my opinion this just goes to show  how bad trade policies will be impacting the general public. The fact that so many households are already experiencing the burden of inflation only proves to me that these policies are having more negative short term effects than positive ones. https://nypost.com/2025/04/13/business/american-consumers-hit-with-tariff-surcharges-amid-trade-war/

A Fool's Errand

    President Trump has issued blanket tariffs on all international trade partners in an attempt of “PURSUING RECIPROCITY TO REBUILD THE ECONOMY AND RESTORE NATIONAL AND ECONOMIC SECURITY.” However, the result of which has given adverse effects. 

    To elaborate,  S&P 500, NASDAQ, and international stock markets have crashed this past week. With the S&P 500 falling by 10%, NASDAQ falling 5.8%, and international stock falling between 5 and 7%. Additionally banks have become weary of a recession; and unemployment is projected to climb up to 5.3%. 

    Unless you plan on shorting stocks or are a large corporation in the US, this is dreadful. The latter being a majority of the US population. I am utterly clueless in how these policies will benefit the common man, the consumer, the people in any way. I believe that this pursuit to “rebuild the economy” may ultimately cause irreparable damages.

Sources:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/04/04/business/trump-tariffs-stocks-economy 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/

Trump Confirms 25% Auto Tariffs on Foreign-Made Cars: A New Jolt to Global Trade

In a recent article, The Economic Times reported that former President Donald Trump has confirmed a 25% tariff on all foreign-manufactured automobiles if he returns to office. The move, according to Trump, is aimed at boosting U.S. car manufacturing and reducing reliance on imports. However, this announcement has sparked serious concerns about the potential economic and diplomatic fallout.

The Policy Announcement

Trump declared that all foreign-made automobiles, regardless of their country of origin, will be subject to the tariff. This blanket policy would impact major global automakers including Japanese, Korean, German, and even some American companies that manufacture cars abroad. Trump argues that this measure will bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., strengthen national security, and protect American industries from unfair foreign competition.

Potential Economic Effects

1. Consumer Prices: A 25% tariff would likely drive up prices for imported vehicles, affecting consumer choice and affordability. Many Americans rely on affordable foreign-made cars. As prices rise, the demand for U.S.-made alternatives might increase, but so will overall costs.

2. Automaker Disruption: Major global car manufacturers with production bases in Mexico, Canada, Germany, Japan, and South Korea could face significant disruptions. Even U.S. companies like Ford and GM, which assemble vehicles overseas, may be impacted, possibly leading to supply chain reconfigurations.

3. Trade Retaliation: Countries affected by this tariff could respond with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports, escalating trade tensions and potentially hurting sectors like agriculture, machinery, and services. These dynamics can strain diplomatic relationships and global market stability.

Broader Implications

While the policy is framed as pro-American industry, it reflects a broader protectionist agenda that departs from the free-trade principles long championed by global economic institutions. Critics argue that such a tariff could isolate the U.S. from its trade partners and lead to inefficiencies in both production and consumption.

Furthermore, the policy may not guarantee a return of manufacturing jobs, as automation and labor costs continue to influence where and how cars are made. The tariff could also complicate U.S. compliance with trade agreements under organizations like the WTO.

Trump’s proposed 25% auto tariff marks a dramatic shift in U.S. trade strategy, with significant implications for global commerce, consumer welfare, and international relations. Whether this move results in domestic job growth or economic disruption will depend heavily on how other countries respond and how industries adapt. As always, protectionism has both winners and losers—and the long-term effects remain uncertain.

Source: The Economic Times. (April 2, 2025). "Donald Trump confirms 25% auto tariffs on all foreign-made automobiles."

Tariffs to Spike Inflation

     As President Donald Trump prepares to announce a new round of tariffs, the economic landscape is bracing for significant shifts. A recent report from Goldman Sachs outlines the potential repercussions of these tariffs, forecasting an alarming combination of rising inflation, increasing unemployment, and stagnant economic growth. The implications of these tariffs are profound, not just for the U.S. economy but for global markets as well.

     Goldman Sachs anticipates that tariff rates could increase by as much as 15 percentage points, a scenario that now appears more likely as the decision day approaches. This increase, although expected to be moderated by eventual product and country exclusions, signals a tough road ahead for consumers and businesses alike. A projected inflation rate of 3.5% by 2025, significantly above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, could erode purchasing power and squeeze household budgets.

     The forecasted economic growth of just 0.2% in the first quarter and a meager 1% for the full year is troubling. Such low growth rates, combined with an expected unemployment rate of 4.5%, paint a picture of an economy struggling to gain momentum. The increased likelihood of a recession—now pegged at 35%—raises concerns reminiscent of the stagflation experienced in the late 1970s and early 1980s, when high inflation coexisted with stagnant economic growth.

     Goldman's insights indicate that this time, the Federal Reserve may take a different approach. While past economic crises have led to aggressive interest rate hikes, Goldman now forecasts three rate cuts within 2025. This shift suggests that the Fed is prepared to prioritize economic support over inflation containment. However, the effectiveness of such rate cuts in combating inflation without further destabilizing the economy remains uncertain.

     The potential for an across-the-board tariff increase of 20% on U.S. trading partners would exacerbate these challenges, leading to increased costs for consumers and businesses, reduced international trade, and a further slowdown in economic growth. The ripple effects of these tariffs could extend beyond U.S. borders, affecting global supply chains and economic stability worldwide.

     In summary, as decision day approaches, the proposed tariffs represent more than just a trade policy shift; they embody a critical juncture for the U.S. economy. The interplay of rising inflation, stagnant growth, and potential recessionary pressures could create a challenging environment for policymakers and consumers alike. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining how these economic forecasts play out and what measures will be taken to mitigate their impact. 

Article Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/30/tariffs-to-spike-inflation-stunt-growth-and-raise-recession-risks-goldman-says-.html

Trump Administration Slashes Planned Parenthood Funding — What It Means for Reproductive Health

On March 31, 2025, the Trump administration announced a sweeping cut to federal funding for Planned Parenthood, eliminating tens of millions of dollars in grants to affiliates that offer abortion referrals. While these funds were never used for abortion services due to existing federal law (the Hyde Amendment), the administration claims the cuts are part of an effort to ensure that taxpayer dollars don’t indirectly support organizations involved in abortion access.

This move marks a major shift in reproductive health policy and escalates a long-standing political fight. For many Americans, especially low-income individuals and marginalized communities, Planned Parenthood is a lifeline, offering not just reproductive services, but cancer screenings, birth control, STI testing, prenatal care, and general health checkups.

Planned Parenthood officials warned that the funding cuts could force clinic closures and staff reductions, leading to reduced access in areas where alternative providers are few or nonexistent. Public health advocates are particularly concerned about rural regions and communities of color, where reproductive health care is already under strain.

While the administration frames this as a move to protect “the sanctity of life,” critics view it as a politically motivated attack on comprehensive healthcare. With election season heating up, the debate over funding reproductive health services is once again center stage, and the people most affected are often those with the fewest resources.

As legal battles and policy fights continue, one thing is clear: the consequences of this decision will ripple far beyond Planned Parenthood, shaping access to care for millions across the country.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/31/trump-admin-cuts-tens-of-millions-from-planned-parenthood-00261763

Core inflation in February hits 2.8%, higher than expected

    The core PCE price index measured at 2.8% for the past 12 months at the end of February. The core PCE price index is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Consumer spending also was slightly below projections, sitting at a growth of 0.4%, whereas projections were calling for 0.5%. The immediate cause for the aggravated inflation rate not going back down to the Fed's goal of 2% seems to be tariff related. The Fed's timeline for cutting interest rates seems to have been slowed down by this lingering inflation. The article makes a point that tariffs are normally considered, "...as one-off events that do not feed through to longer-lasting inflation pressures," but in this case the all encompassing nature of Trump's tariffs could possibly lead to an aggressive global trade war. That is to say, all of this uncertainty is being reflected in the numbers. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/28/pce-inflation-february-2025-.html

Inflation Ran High in February as Consumer Spending Increased

 This February, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased 0.3% for the month and 2.8% year. This exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2% objective, telling us that U.S. inflation remained high this month. After a drop in January, consumer spending grew by 0.4%, but the real gain was only 0.1% after accounting for inflation. Purchases of durable items accounted for a significant amount of the spending growth, potentially in anticipation of Trump's anticipated tariffs, which could raise costs even more.

The current level of inflation, along with anticipated tariffs, has caused consumer sentiment to decline. Inflation forecasts are now at 5%, which is their highest level in years. According to these patterns, people are becoming more and more cautious about rising prices even when spending is staying the same, and policymakers may need to take further steps to reduce inflation without slowing economic growth.

www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2025-03-28/inflation-ran-a-little-hotter-in-february-as-spending-rose

Donald Trump is planning on Introducing a 25% tariff on imported cars starting April 2nd

 Donald Trump is planning on Introducing a 25% tariff on imported cars starting April 2nd, which is aimed at bringing car manufacturing back to America. In the long term, carmakers must decide whether to overhaul their supply or tank the losses with the possibility that these tariffs change or get reversed. Moving production to the U.S. would cost a lot in time and money. This change would require factories to be revamped and new infrastructure to be created. Ironically, even Tesla, which manufactures in America, relies on imported parts and will also be impacted from these new policies. Predictions say car sales could drop by 1-2.5 million units this year due to higher prices. This policy will impact both new and expensive cars as well as older or lower end models. The impact of these tariffs will likely lead to fewer, more expensive cars and limit choices for American consumers.

https://www.economist.com/business/2025/03/31/donald-trumps-plan-for-american-carmaking-is-full-of-potholes

Projected GDP for Q1 Decreases by 2%

Originally in the 4th quarter of 2024, there was a projected GDP growth of 2.3%. However, projections now indicate a growth at merely 0.3%. This would be a relatively weak amount of growth in the years following COVID. The slowing growth of the country is beginning to worry experts, investors, and citizens alike. As uncertainty of the economy remains steady, it is unclear whether or not Trump's policies will steer America to a negative path.

The growth rate will slowly build back up towards what is currently projected, with forecasts of 1.4% growth in Q2, 1.6% in Q3, and 2% in Q4. Though with projections having decreased as of late, it is unclear as to whether or not these predictions will successfully predict a steady increase in GDP growth. One thing is clear in this time of uncertainty, the administration will want to rethink their strategies if they wish to get themselves out of the hole they’ve put themselves in, and begin to grow at a steady rate once more. 

 https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/first-quarter-gdp-growth-will-be-just-0point3percent-as-tariffs-stoke-stagflation-conditions-says-cnbc-survey.html