February jobs report: DOGE federal layoffs show up amid gains

 The February jobs report showed stronger-than-expected growth as275,000 jobs were created, surpassing estimates of 200,000. The unemployment rate rose, however, to 3.9%, with wage growth remaining constant. While healthcare and government job sectors showed strong gains, retail and manufacturing experienced some pullbacks. The mixed tone of the report shows there is some resilience to job creation and some underlying economic volatility. I think that this report means that the job market is continuing to grow but starting to show signs of a possible slowdown. The rise in unemployment, despitestrong job increases, suggests more people are leaving the labor pool or struggling to find employment. It will be important to pay attentionto if hiring remains firm in the upcoming months or the rise in unemployment is indicative of larger problems.

NBC NewsFebruary jobs report: DOGE federal layoffs show up amid gains

24-Hour Economic Blackout Results

On February 28, consumers participated in an "economic blackout," a one day boycott aimed at reducing spending, with an emphasis on supporting local businesses. The boycott led to declines in e-commerce traffic and in-store foot traffic for major retailers like Target and Walmart, while Amazon sales remained largely unchanged.

• Amazon: Sales increased by 1% compared to the previous eight Fridays' average.
• E-commerce Traffic: The top 100 online retailers saw a 6% year-over-year decrease and a 4% drop from the prior Friday.
• Target: Web traffic declined by 1.0%, while app traffic dropped by 10.9%. In-store foot traffic also fell.
• Walmart: Website traffic was down 6.5%, and app usage declined by 2.5%. Brick-and-mortar stores saw fewer visitors.
• Costco: Website traffic increased by 8.3%, but app traffic decreased by 6.9%.

Link: https://www.yahoo.com/news/finance/news/results-feb-28-economic-blackout-201401957.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAzImQrIoVjVCcx0Oukbr_zFzcme5_ykptSiwrjm0psMBjwk4A3SvymigxBWEzhx6o_gJunwvHxobBbyr1tK8GWIzrcrw3E-8Gsjaev27M8A6o5qrXxk8I7Zjhw0jKDbknF34lAAG4C-3i_y4FOgkYj2UF_KKvfKi3Z68VDR3Bmq

Jobless claims spike, in worrisome sign for the US labor market

 Jobless claims are reported weekly from the U.S. Department of Labor and it reports how many people film for unemployment benefits. This past week their was 242,000 claims filled this past week which was a massive shock to many as it was expected to be around levels of 220,000. This is the largest jobless claim in more than 4 months.

These levels can be very volatile and the simplest thing like weather or holidays can move these numbers so some shifts are not a problem but something like this is definitely an unusual spike. With the Trump administration working their way through the government and having mass firings that could be a clear reason for the spike, and gives this piece of data further importance. There could also be further layoffs to come in the near future with Elon Musk, however economists don't believe this will all happen in "one fell swoop".

A chief economist at EY-Parthenon mentions that these layoffs will not effect February's job report but rather will move to March's because of the exact timing. Although these are significant, these claims should all be a one time hit and will not be a reoccurrence looking into the long run. This is only a months loss of growth so rebounding shouldn't be a problem.

Link: https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/27/economy/us-jobless-claims-layoffs/

Egg Prices and Their Effects on American Bakeries

Egg prices have increased significantly in the United States in recent months. The price has increased by a whopping 186% in comparison to the average price of a dozen eggs in 1992. The primary cause of this increase is an ongoing bird flu outbreak that has required the slaughter of around 158 million birds since it began. Prices have increased as a result of a significant decrease in the population that lays eggs, which has reduced the overall supply of eggs.

As eggs are becoming more and more expensive, profit margins for American bakeries are becoming more and more slim. A local business in Houston, for example, is struggling with the surge in price of eggs. Christine Ha, the owner of the Stuffed Belly, has taken the egg salad sandwich completely off her menu in order to avoid charging customers an increased price. Similar challenges and situations are being experienced by Kenny & Ziggy's New York Delicatessen, New York Deli and Coffee Shop, and several others.

Source: www.cnn.com/2025/02/23/economy/surging-egg-prices-bakeries/index.html 

Tesla Stock Volatility and the Uncertain U.S.-Ukraine Economic Deal

 This months economic news has been quite interesting and full of intertwining corporate struggles with geopolitical drama. Al Root’s article in Barron’s on February 28, 2025, titled “Tesla Stock Falls Again. When Will It Stop?” Highlights the ongoing story of Tesla’s plummeting stock. Additionally, Martin Baccardax’s article on yahoo finance titled, “Stock Market Today:Stocks end higher despite angry Trump-Zelensky exchange” discusses the unsuccessful economic negotiations between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. These events offer a view into how politics, corporate performance, and international deals combine to drive markets.

Tesla’s stock dropped 8.4% on Tuesday, pushing its market cap below $1 trillion, after European sales dropped by 45% in January—selling just 9,900 cars compared to a 37% rise in overall European electric vehicle sales. This decline aligns with Elon Musk’s newly established political involvement with his advisory role in Trump’s administration. Root suggests that Musk’s political activities are pushing away European buyers. Consumer behavior often reflects sentiment, and if Tesla’s brand is now attached to U.S. political policies, like Trump’s tariff threats or his Ukraine stance, it could stifle demand in major markets. For Tesla investors, this is a dangerous time as they all wonder when this will end which depends on Musk’s ability to separate Tesla’s performance from his political popularity, which could be impossible.
Additionally, news released regarding the U.S.-Ukraine economic deal, meant to secure American stakes in Ukraine’s natural resources, remains up in the air after a heated White House meeting on Friday. Trump and Zelensky’s meeting left a proposed “Reconstruction Investment Fund” unsigned. This fund sought to obtain 50% of Ukraine’s future resource revenues (lithium, titanium, oil, and gas) into a joint U.S. and Ukraine partnership, promising economic stability for Ukraine and profits for American firms. Trump claims it to be a “win-win” and support comes from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s reinforcement that it was in both Ukrainian and U.S. business interests. However, the failure of finding an agreement highlights the sensitivity of economic diplomacy when tensions rise between world leaders.

For Ukraine, forfeiting half its resource revenues could fund reconstruction through U.S. contributions but sacrifices long-term wealth. This is a deal Zelensky is refusing to make without military security guarantees Trump won’t provide as he believes Zelensky will continue the war rather than cease fire immediately. For the United States, the deal granted access to minerals crucial for the production of technology. Though Ukraines mineral supply is greatly outmatched to China’s, the source would still prove beneficial to the United States as we try to remain competitive in the AI and technological race with China. The market reacted nervously, with the market seeing a drop before recovering, signaling uncertainty over peace prospects and resource access. This recovery could be due to the position Ukraine is in as Trump says they stand no chance without the aide of the United States, which would ultimately end with the United States getting the deal Trump wants. However, as we saw with the meeting today, if communication and cooperation cannot be established, further instability is to come.  

Sources:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-stocks-bounce-105744114.html

https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-falls-again-when-will-it-stop-e653067f

Trump’s Gold Card Visa: A Hidden Tax Break for the Wealthy

Report

President Donald Trump’s proposed $5 million “gold card” visa for U.S. residency is making waves in the world of high-net-worth individuals. This initiative, one of the most expensive in the world, offers a unique opportunity for the global rich to secure U.S. residency and a pathway to citizenship. However, it also comes with a hidden tax benefit that has raised eyebrows among experts.

The gold card visa program is designed to attract wealthy foreign investors by offering them permanent residency and a path to citizenship in exchange for a $5 million investment. This program aims to replace the existing EB-5 immigrant investor visa program, which requires a minimum investment of $800,000. The gold card visa is expected to generate significant revenue for the U.S. government, with Trump aiming to sell around a million of these cards, potentially generating $5 trillion.

One of the most controversial aspects of the gold card visa is the tax loophole it creates. Gold card holders would not be subject to taxes on their overseas income, a benefit not available to U.S. citizens. This provision makes the gold card visa particularly attractive to the global rich, who often have businesses and investments spread across the world. By avoiding taxes on their international income, gold card holders can save substantial amounts of money, making the $5 million investment seem like a bargain.

Additional Insights

The introduction of the gold card visa program is expected to have several economic implications:

• The program is likely to attract a significant influx of foreign capital into the U.S. economy. Wealthy individuals seeking to take advantage of the tax benefits and secure U.S. residency will invest in American businesses and real estate, boosting economic growth.
• Similar to the EB-5 program, the gold card visa is expected to create jobs for U.S. workers. The investments made by gold card holders will lead to the establishment of new businesses and the expansion of existing ones, generating employment opportunities.
• The sale of gold card visas is projected to generate substantial revenue for the U.S. government. With Trump aiming to sell around a million of these cards, the program could potentially bring in $5 trillion, which could be used to reduce the national deficit.
• The tax loophole created by the gold card visa could lead to a dual-class tax system among the wealthy in the U.S. While gold card holders enjoy tax-free international income, U.S. citizens and permanent residents will continue to be taxed on their worldwide earnings. This disparity could create tension and calls for tax reform.

Above all else, the combination of the gold card visa program with Trump’s preexisting deportation policies and massive governmental job cuts could create an increasingly complex economic landscape. While the gold card visa might boost foreign investment and job creation, the deportation policies and job cuts could lead to labor shortages, increased production costs, and an overall higher rate of unemployment for those not actively being deported. The net effect on GDP and employment would depend on the balance between these opposing forces, but is generally trending in a negative direction.

Final Thoughts

In précis, while the gold card visa program has the potential to attract investment and create jobs, it also raises concerns about tax inequality and housing affordability. Trump’s deportation policies could exacerbate labor shortages and contribute to inflation, potentially offsetting the benefits of the gold card visa program. The overall impact on the U.S. economy would depend on how these factors interact and the extent to which they influence each other

Trump’s gold card visa program represents a significant shift in U.S. immigration policy, offering a lucrative opportunity for the global rich to secure residency and citizenship. While the program is expected to boost foreign investment, create jobs, and generate revenue, it also raises concerns about tax inequality and the potential for a dual-class tax system, among much else. As the details of the program continue to unfold, it will be interesting to see how it shapes the future of U.S. immigration and economic policy.

Link to Source

The Truth About Congestion Prices: Manhattan Toll Prices

  In January, the Congestion Tax on vehicles entering the Central Business District of Manhattan was finally implemented. The tax will charge small vehicles that enter the area $9 during the daytime and $2.25 otherwise. In the case of small and large trucks, they will have to pay $14.40 and $21.60 respectively during the day, and will get similar discounts for nighttime travel. 

Commuters have expressed mixed emotions about the new Congestion Tax. One one hand, many commuters and city residents agree that the heavy traffic in the area can be very frustrating during the daytime and rush hour. The increase in toll prices should push more people to commute into the city by public transportation, as many already do. The increase in public transportation will not only decrease traffic in the area, but also reduce the carbon emissions from vehicles in the area. However, the increase the in demand for public transportation will inevitably cause bus, train, and subway prices to increase further. Some of these increases have already occurred in anticipation for the congestion tax implication, which some commuters have already expressed their displeasure.

The majority of the money from the Congestion Tax will be used to enable the MTA to issue $15 billion in bonds, enabling the agency to rebuild and enhance their numerous public transportation systems. These improvements have been promised for years, but the Congestion Tax has finally cemented these changes.

Source: https://www.nrdc.org/bio/eric-goldstein/busting-myths-new-yorks-congestion-pricing-program

The first quarter is on track for negative GDP growth, Atlanta Fed indicator says

 Early GDP tracking is showing that there might be negative GDP growth, according to the Atlanta Fed. Currently, projections are showing a shrinkage of 1.5%, whereas before the most recent forecast, expectations sat at about 2.3%. According to the article, this is due to less exports and less consumer spending during January. In early February, the same statistic was showing growth up to 3.9%; however, there is much volatility in early quarter numbers with GDP now tracking capabilities. Net Exports are tracked to have fallen from -0.4% to -3.7%. Using this data in conjunction with consumer confidence reports does not bode well for the future, but nothing is absolutely set in stone as of right now. Also, another historically reliable indicator of a recession-- 10 year Treasury Yield falling below the 3 month yield, has occurred. There is now anticipation that interest rates could be cut due to these figures. 

Link: 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/28/the-first-quarter-is-on-track-for-negative-gdp-growth-atlanta-fed-indicator-says-.html

Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Economic Growth

Explanation 

Tariffs, or taxes on imported goods, are a key tool in trade policy, often aimed at protecting domestic industries. Recently, the U.S. has increased tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, sparking debate over their economic impact.

How Tariffs Affect Economic Growth

1. Higher Costs for Consumers & Businesses – Tariffs raise prices on imported goods, increasing costs for businesses that rely on foreign materials. These expenses are often passed on to consumers, contributing to inflation.

2. Supply Chain Disruptions – Many industries depend on global supply chains. Tariffs force companies to seek alternative suppliers, leading to delays and higher costs.

3. Trade Retaliation – Countries targeted by U.S. tariffs often impose their own, limiting American exports and straining international trade relationships.

4. Short-Term vs. Long-Term Impact – While tariffs may temporarily protect domestic jobs, they can lead to slower economic growth, reduced investments, and job losses in the long run.

Conclusion

Though tariffs can provide short-term economic protection, they often lead to higher prices, trade conflicts, and economic uncertainty. Balancing protectionism with free trade remains a challenge for those in power of policy.

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/be2b79d2-d9f1-46e2-8f1d-d427c7cdf348?utm_source

January Inflation Hits Expected Number

In a report that came out today, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, rose 0.3% for the month and showed a 2.5% annual rate. This is a slight ease in inflation for January, and it comes as worries continue to grow over the Trump administration’s tariff policies and their impact on the performance of the economy.

These inflation numbers came as expected by the Fed, and likely will result in the maintaining of current interest rates. Getting inflation down will continue to be a important goal for the Fed as well as the Trump administration. It will be very important for the administration to get inflation under control before the midterm elections. If unable to do so, the voters may be looking for some change in Congress in 2026.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/28/pce-inflation-january-2025-.html

America's economy is flashing warning signs of a slowdown

Recently, the United States economy has shown signs of slowing down, with escalating concerns fueled by tariffs imposed during President Trump's administration. These tariffs, intended to protect domestic industries and rebalance trade, have created economic challenges. Pressure is mounting on an already strained economy, hindered by high inflation and interest rates. Three key economic indicators, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the labor market, and home sales, suggest a softening economy. The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed the revised fourth-quarter GDP data, showing an annualized growth rate of 2.3%, a decline from the 3.1% growth in the third quarter. Additionally, initial jobless claims have spiked beyond anticipated projections according to the U.S. Labor Department. For the week ending February 22, claims rose by 22,000, reaching a seasonal total of 242,000. This surpassed analysts’ expectations, who had predicted a rise to 225,000. Soaring mortgage rates and high home prices have heavily impacted the housing market. Pending home sales fell by 4.6% from December, hitting the lowest level since the National Association of Realtors began tracking the data in 2001. Year-over-year sales dropped by 5.2% from January 2024.

Overall, these indicators paint a concerning picture of the U.S. economic trajectory. With trade policies adding stress, inflation increasing every day living costs, and key markets exhibiting signs of slowing down, there is a need for caution.

 

America's economy is flashing warning signs of a slowdown.

February 28 Economic Boycott

The People’s Union USA has encouraged people to not spend any money February 28th in an attempt to boycott billionaires and large corporations alike. This stems from the desire to demonstrate the power that the consumers hold in the economy, as opposed to the producers. This is largely due to recent changes in corporate policies, like turning away from DEI initiatives. The boycott is intended to put a hold on all spending, though they note that if you absolutely must spend, you should do so at a small local shop.

Critics of the boycott question its effectiveness. If the boycott only lasts for one day and has no specific demands, it may not prove particularly beneficial. The People’s Union USA seems to imply that this will be the first in a string of planned protests. If the first one is a success, there may be many more in the future that will potentially cause more damage to company profits. 

This has several economic implications. One such result could weaken the strength of large businesses and strengthen smaller local businesses, creating a shift in which companies are demanded. If this boycott is successful in the U.S. and continues for some time. The U.S. would likely start having to rely on exports if their major corporations do not generate sales within their own borders. 

While this specific boycott may not have many implications, it could be the first stepping stone of many in major corporate reform for large corporations. 

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/business/economic-blackout-day-why-some-will-be-boycotting-major-retailers-friday/3685441/

The Federal Reserve's favorite recession indicator is flashing a danger sign again

 The 10-year Treasury yield passed the below that of the 3-month note in Wednesdays trading session. In economics this is known as the inverted yield curve. Yield Curve inversions have had a strong but not perfect forecasting history. The pervious inversion happened in October of 2022 and the has still been no recession, 2 1/2 years later. 

At the end of January, when the 10-year yield was about .31 percentage point clear of the 3-month, the probability was just 23% of a recession actually occuring. However, that is almost certain to change as the relationship has shifted dramatically in February. The reason the move is considered a recession indicator is the expectation that the FED will cut short-term rates in response to an economic retreat in the future. So while there is no certainty that growth will turn negative this time around. investors worry that expected growth from an ambitious agenda under President Trump may not happen. In response, traders are now pricing in at least a half a percentage point of interest rate cuts this year from the FED, an implication that the central bank will ease as growth slows. 

The article states, "Whether or not we're forecasting a full-blown recession, I don't know. You need job losses for a recession, so we're missing one key point of the data". But with Jobless claims come out 2/22 and was up nearly 20,000 from the previous week which shows signs that unemployment may be increasing because DOGE's reallocation which has led to the unemployment of Federal employees. It will be crucial to watch employment and growth in the. economy to truly see if a recession is signaling. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/26/federal-reserves-favorite-recession-indicator-is-flashing-danger-again.html

Inflation, Tariffs Turn Consumers Sour on Trumponomics

 Recent reports indicate a significant decline in U.S. consumer confidence because of President Trump's trade policies, particularly the tariffs on imports. In addition, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped by 7 points to 98.3 in February which is the largest decrease since August 2021. This downturn is linked to concerns over tariffs, inflation, and political developments. 

Consumers are growing more anxious about the economic impact of these tariffs. The University of Michigan's survey of consumer sentiment noted a substantial rise in mentions of tariffs, proving that there are legitimate economic concerns. Additionally, the Michigan index saw a rare decline across all components, signifying widespread unease about personal finances, business conditions, and future economic prospects. 

The Federal Reserve is also expressing concerns about the potential inflationary impacts of the tariff plans. While the initial response to the trade war was to lower interest rates due to the dimming global and U.S. growth outlook, current high inflation remains a significant concern. The administration has raised tariffs on Chinese goods and plans to conduct similar measures for other countries as well which would disrupt supply chains and raise public expectations for higher prices. 

In conclusion, both the tariffs and inflation concerns are leading to heightened consumer anxiety and a decline in confidence as well as potential future problems for the broader economy.

Source: https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2025-02-21/inflation-tariffs-turn-consumers-sour-on-trumponomics

The future of California’s High Speed Railway might be in jeopardy

    California’s High-Speed Railway (HSR) project comprises two phases. The first connects San Francisco to LA, and the second connects the other major cities to the railway network. Currently, the section in the Central Valley is under construction, connecting Madera to Bakersfield and the cities in between. 

    Recently, President Trump has launched a review on the project to see if it will be completed. This review has been justifiable as the new projected budget has increased from the 2008 $33 Billion to the new $89-128 Billion. Additionally, the project has been subjected to frequent delays, and will continue to have them as a “report found it is unlikely to reach the target of shuttling the first phase passengers by 2033” (Adler, 2025). The fate of its completion may rest upon the current party occupying the Whitehouse, as democrats are offered financial support for the railway system, and Trump has been accused of trying to terminate the project

    I Personally believe that the project must be completed, as this investment will bring a substantial boost to the US’s largest economy, and will cover all development costs. Furthermore, the railway will bring benefits that come with any railway, such as reduced road traffic volume and pollution, faster way of transportation, cheaper, and a safer alternative to cars. Lastly, if the project does reach completion, it may inspire other states around the country and create a nationwide reform on transportation. 

References:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-20/trump-targets-128-billion-california-high-speed-rail-project?utm_campaign=bn&utm_medium=distro&utm_source=yahooUS 

https://hsr.ca.gov/high-speed-rail-in-california/overview/ 

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-americas-29-trillion-economy-by-state/ 

U.S. Business Growth Stalls as Tariffs and Spending Cuts Take Effect

 The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing as new tariffs and federal spending cuts impact businesses. According to a Reuters report, the S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI Output Index dropped to 50.4 in February, marking its lowest point in 17 months. This suggests that private sector growth is barely steady, with concerns rising over trade policies and government spending reductions.

Key Factors Behind the Slowdown

• Tariffs on Chinese Imports - The Trump administration's increased tariffs have raised costs for businesses that rely on imported goods, leading to price hikes and reduced demand.
• Federal Workforce Reductions - Substantial government spending cuts have resulted in job losses and creative uncertainty in consumer spending.
• Weak Business Confidence - Rising costs and policy uncertainty have made businesses more cautious about hiring and investment, leading to a slowdown in new orders and employment.

What This Means for the Economy

While the economy has remained resilient in recent years, these policy shifts could have lasting effects. Higher tariffs may lead to inflationary pressures, while federal workforce cuts could weaken consumer demand. If these trends continue, the Federal Reserve may need to reconsider its monetary policy stance in response to a cooling economy. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether these policies will spark broader economic instability or if businesses will adapt to the changing landscape. Will the government adjust its strategy, or will businesses and consumers bear the brunt of these economic shifts?

Article: US business activity activity stalling, consumers' inflation expectations surge By Lucia Mutikani

Source Link: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/tariffs-federal-government-spending-cuts-restrain-us-business-activity-2025-02-21/

Washington D.C Federal Unemployment

Washington D.C Confrontation surrounding Unemployment, as Government Downsizing Initiatives take place

Washington, D.C., is experiencing a wave of unemployment as the Trump administration and Elon Musk are gaining momentum in their effort to downsize the federal government. A recent CNBC report indicates that job losses have especially been noteworthy among government agencies, fueling arguments about the stability of the economy in the area and the long-term implications of slimmer bureaucracy. The administration aims to cut federal jobs, privatize functions, and boost efficiency through automation and reducing spending. However, this is the reason for layoffs in the area.

Impact

The impact on Unemployment and local economies is that the region's labor market is hurting from job loss, which relies on federal employment. Some ripple effects are:

• Housing Market Shutdown

• Reduced Consumer Spending

• Private Sector Adjustments

Musk

Elon Musk’s involvement in this initiative has focused on technological efficiency. Musk wants to leverage AI and automation to replace certain bureaucratic functions, reducing the need for human workers. This could lead to federal cost savings but raises the concern of nationwide job displacement and social impact. 

Next Moves

As layoffs continue, policymakers and local leaders are trying to find ways to mitigate impacts. Job training programs are in effect to help workers transition into the private sector. The long-term effects are uncertain, but for now, the area is facing economic adjustments. 

Link

Trump Weighing the Possibility of a "DOGE Dividend"

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced that he is considering directing 20% of the Department of Government Efficiency's (DOGE) cost saving to American citizens, along with putting another 20% toward paying down national debt. His recent comments also align with Elon Musk's recent post on X that suggests providing households with direct payments. Should DOGE achieve its $2 trillion cost cutting goal, each household could potentially receive $5,000. CEO of Azoria, James Fishback, coined the term "DOGE dividend," citing it as a way to repay taxpayers for the governments past inefficiencies. 

The possibility of a "DOGE dividend" sounds beneficial however, there are already concerns being raised by Bloomberg and the New York Times about the legitimacy of how much DOGE has already saved the government ($55 billion). If this plan is successfully employed, it could provide a sizeable financial boost for many families while also allocating money towards paying off the nation's debt. Many critics still remain skeptical about whether this massive cost saving goal will be possible. Ultimately, the proposal of a "DOGE dividend" sounds like it could provide many benefits for families and the economy, however, it will be interesting to see if the team at DOGE is able to successfully achieve their lofty goals and if they will actually provide the American people with a "DOGE dividend."

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/19/elon-musk-will-check-with-trump-on-idea-for-tax-refunds-from-doge-savings.html

Layoffs Down in January

 

        Although the recent CPI numbers have been high for January,

the number of unemployment applications has fallen. This data

indicates that employers are not laying off as many employees despite

the rising inflation. The number of applications was 2,000 below the

projected number for January.  On the other hand, only 143,000 jobs

were created in January which is almost a 50% drop from December's

numbers. Despite the drop in new jobs, the labor market is relatively healthy. 

                Going back to the CPI numbers for January, since we have seen

an acceleration in inflation in the recent month, many are speculating

on how the Fed is going to move forward. It was speculated that the

Fed might lower interest rates, but with the recent CPI numbers the

possibility that the Fed won't cut the rates is higher. So we might see a

continuation of the higher interest rates over the next year, as well

as possibly a lower unemployment rate which could continue to steady over

the next few months.

Sources

The number of Americans seeking jobless benefits falls as employers continue to hold on to workers | AP News

Another Shot at Reciprocal Tarriffs?

 The shift from MFN (Most-Favored Nation) uniform tariffs to "reciprocal" country-by-country tariffs would create never-before-seen uncertainty and complexity for U.S. firms. Those with global supply chains would face differing rules, with the tariff not only depending on the product but on the policy of each trading nation. This uncertainty would force companies to increase administrative costs while creating more production burdens. Some firms may have to outsource their production or shift these excess costs to the consumer. All of the excess costs and inefficiencies would weaken American business competitiveness, along with restraining investment, and dampen overall U.S. economic growth.

As countries retaliate against America's tariff adjustments, a trade war may result, with tariffs escalating for all sides involved. This back-and-forth would disrupt international supply chains, and decrease trading. If this were to ensue, the created economic uncertainty would destabilize relationships, reduce trust, and increase costs around the globe.

The Economist. (2025, February 19). Reciprocal tariffs really mean chaos for global trade. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/02/19/reciprocal-tariffs-really-mean-chaos-for-global-trade