Global fertility rates to plunge in decades ahead, new report says by CNN
Fertility rates have been on a decrease since the 1950s and this new study that was conducted revealed that over the next few decades, fertility rates will significantly drop. In 1950 fertility rate, also known as the average number of children born to a woman in her life, was 4.84. In 2021, it has dropped down to 2.23 and it's expected to drop down to 1.59 in 2100. The article explores some of the key factors that have changed women's behavior in having fewer children over the past few decades. Child costs, gender equality, and personal perceptions are some of the driving factors. The study also points out that this decline is uneven between countries. The poorest countries still have high fertility rates while the richest countries have lower fertility rates. This implies that the United States being among the richest countries I the world would experience a decline in the fertility rate. From an economic standpoint, this would impact the country's population growth, labor force, and other markets that require human capital in the long run. While the article mentioned several other issues, the one I found the most interesting is their environmental approach. With a smaller population, the global carbon footprint would go down and alleviate some of the excessive fuel burning. The next thing to think about is how the government will adjust and how the labor force will adapt to this impending change.
Link: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/global-fertility-rates-to-plunge-in-decades-ahead-new-report-says/ar-BB1kfnKC
While it is quite alarming that our labor force will be shrinking and a result of the declining fertility rate, I wonder if advancements in AI could offset the negative consequences. Improvements in technology have reduced our need for much manual labor, and perhaps new AI innovations will make it so that we need less laborers to have a strong economy.
ReplyDeleteWould a growth rate of 1.59 be sustainable for our population? How would a lower population affect the job market? I think it could work considering how AI is becoming more prevalent leading to fewer workers being needed.
ReplyDeleteI don't neccessarily see the decline in fertility rates to be an overall bad thing. There are many ways to mitigate the harmful impacts the smaller population could have on an economy while capitalizing on the best aspects of this. I think that something to consider in these impoverished countries is that they do not have access to the same contraceptives that richer or first world countries have and will always inately have a larger fertility rate (often times with a higher mortality rate too due to lack of medical care).
ReplyDeleteThe environmental angle, suggesting a potential reduction in the global carbon footprint with a smaller population, is intriguing. Yet, it prompts questions about how policymakers can ensure sustainable development amidst declining fertility rates. How should governments and industries adapt to address these challenges effectively?
ReplyDelete